Will Montgomery County ever recover?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

how come you VA folks dont take your General Lee cars and hop over Potomac every day to work.

because there are no jobs in in MoCo

Another lie

https://aminerdetail.com/new-report-paints-devastating-economic-outlook-for-montgomery-county/

is it? No jobs growth, a rapidly aging population, already high taxes. You are right, things are rosy.

Stating that there are no jobs is a lie. Or are you saying that you didn't say that?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

There are more people who live in Maryland and work in VA, than those that do the reverse. Based on most recent census data in 2009-2013 time frame, approximately 68,500 people who lived in Virginia work in Maryland. Conversely, approximately 122,700 people who lived in Maryland work in Virginia. You guys can download and look at the raw data yourself:

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dem...commuting/commuting-flows.html

It's very clear that VA does a better job at providing people with, err, jobs, than Maryland.


Agreed, and I suspect in the 10 years since that census was taken, a lot of people have decided to locate or relocate to NoVA, driving up housing prices there compared to MD. It's rational to assume that if one area is creating a lot more jobs than another one, this will have a short-term effect of a lot of people commuting there, and a longer-term effect of people locating there and therefore driving up housing costs relative to other nearby areas.

This X100. I think this is the #1 reason why there is such a stark difference between Montgomery County appreciation and NOVA appreciation. Higher paying jobs are being concentrated in NOVA. This starts a snowball effect with wealthier, high income people moving to NOVA and newcomers choosing NOVA over MoCo. MoCo loses both revenue from not having any jobs or business and losing the high income residents. This makes the area more affordable but less attractive so prices fall further. Poverty increases because there are more options for low income housing and programs. The schools suffer as they lose more highly educated people. Eventually taxes will need to go up spooking away other buyers or tipping the scales for more wealthy people leaving the county. Buyers see the huge differences in appreciation and worry about investing in Montgomery County.

Some of the fundamentals are really stark:



So Fairfax has about 10% more people and 10% more businesses with employees, but the businesses with employees in Fairfax generate 38% more employment and 66% higher payroll than the businesses in Montgomery County. So not only are the businesses in Fairfax County employing far more people on average, but the jobs are significantly higher paying. And year over year Fairfax is enjoying 1.3% employment growth versus 0.2% for MoCo. This does not even take into account the business/employment in Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, and Fairfax City. Here's the underlying raw data for people that want to see for themselves:

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/montgomerycountymaryland,fairfaxcountyvirginia,US/PST045218

Face it, Virginia is providing substantial employment opportunities to Marylanders, MoCo should be thanking their lucky stars for their proximity to NoVA.

NP here. Seriously. To the point, that PP is finding and posting tables on this thread to prove a point. Do you all work? LOL!

PP here. I am an owner of one of the "employer establishments" in Fairfax County. I do work, but set my own schedule.

So business owner, what's it to you? Why must you go out of your way to attempt to "prove" that VA is so much better than MD? Do you have nothing else better to do? Good grief.

Someone posed a question, a discussion ensued, and I am participating in the discussion. If you don't like seeing people participate in a discussion, perhaps distance yourself form it? Up to you.

[Anonymous]

I'm concerned that Montgomery County's planning commission has zero economic sense. There are close to 50,000 homes new homes in the pipeline in the next few years. These are almost all concentrated in Bethesda, Rockville, and Silver Spring. These homes are entering the market at the same time when there is a large bubble of residents moving into retirement which means downsizing and selling homes.

This type of surge of inventory can only work if there is a matching surge in potential buyers. If MOCO had won Amazon, it would be a good move but MOCO putting all its eggs in one basket with Amazon was a bad choice.

Its basic supply and demand. More choices than buyers always equals prices dropping. Inventory is a huge driver for local markets. In the next few years there will be far more expensive homes than buyers with the money and desire ti live in Montgomery County. This will push down prices. Developers are more numbers focused and will run a comparable against holding out or dropping the prices. Buyers will end up purchasing newer homes over older homes. Older home owners can be more stubborn and stick to pricing too high only to end up selling at even greater loss.

On the upside, the problem of people not being able to afford a 4 bedroom home will be alleviated in Montgomery County. On the downside, people who bought high will be out of luck. Just watch you'll be able to pick up a 600K older home in North Bethesda/Rockville and a 400K older home in close-in DTSS in a few years. Bethesda will start to see more 700K and 800K older homes become available.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm concerned that Montgomery County's planning commission has zero economic sense. There are close to 50,000 homes new homes in the pipeline in the next few years. These are almost all concentrated in Bethesda, Rockville, and Silver Spring. These homes are entering the market at the same time when there is a large bubble of residents moving into retirement which means downsizing and selling homes.

This type of surge of inventory can only work if there is a matching surge in potential buyers. If MOCO had won Amazon, it would be a good move but MOCO putting all its eggs in one basket with Amazon was a bad choice.

Its basic supply and demand. More choices than buyers always equals prices dropping. Inventory is a huge driver for local markets. In the next few years there will be far more expensive homes than buyers with the money and desire ti live in Montgomery County. This will push down prices. Developers are more numbers focused and will run a comparable against holding out or dropping the prices. Buyers will end up purchasing newer homes over older homes. Older home owners can be more stubborn and stick to pricing too high only to end up selling at even greater loss.

On the upside, the problem of people not being able to afford a 4 bedroom home will be alleviated in Montgomery County. On the downside, people who bought high will be out of luck. Just watch you'll be able to pick up a 600K older home in North Bethesda/Rockville and a 400K older home in close-in DTSS in a few years. Bethesda will start to see more 700K and 800K older homes become available.

On the one hand, as you said, there are tons of new development, and they are not cheap by any means. I am seeing condo/TH along metro stops from Shady Grove down to TB go for $700K+. Then there is my neighborhood in Rockville where homes are going for $750K+.

How is all this considered MoCo going down the tubes? Sure, there are parts in MoCo that aren't doing that well, but some of the stuff people are posting on this thread make it seem like the whole of MoCo is suffering, and I just don't find this to be the case.

Spouse and I are nearing retirement, and we'd like to find a smaller place for less than $600K near Town Center area, and the only ones I can find are fixer uppers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm concerned that Montgomery County's planning commission has zero economic sense. There are close to 50,000 homes new homes in the pipeline in the next few years. These are almost all concentrated in Bethesda, Rockville, and Silver Spring. These homes are entering the market at the same time when there is a large bubble of residents moving into retirement which means downsizing and selling homes.

This type of surge of inventory can only work if there is a matching surge in potential buyers. If MOCO had won Amazon, it would be a good move but MOCO putting all its eggs in one basket with Amazon was a bad choice.

Its basic supply and demand. More choices than buyers always equals prices dropping. Inventory is a huge driver for local markets. In the next few years there will be far more expensive homes than buyers with the money and desire ti live in Montgomery County. This will push down prices. Developers are more numbers focused and will run a comparable against holding out or dropping the prices. Buyers will end up purchasing newer homes over older homes. Older home owners can be more stubborn and stick to pricing too high only to end up selling at even greater loss.

On the upside, the problem of people not being able to afford a 4 bedroom home will be alleviated in Montgomery County. On the downside, people who bought high will be out of luck. Just watch you'll be able to pick up a 600K older home in North Bethesda/Rockville and a 400K older home in close-in DTSS in a few years. Bethesda will start to see more 700K and 800K older homes become available.

On the one hand, as you said, there are tons of new development, and they are not cheap by any means. I am seeing condo/TH along metro stops from Shady Grove down to TB go for $700K+. Then there is my neighborhood in Rockville where homes are going for $750K+.

How is all this considered MoCo going down the tubes? Sure, there are parts in MoCo that aren't doing that well, but some of the stuff people are posting on this thread make it seem like the whole of MoCo is suffering, and I just don't find this to be the case.

Spouse and I are nearing retirement, and we'd like to find a smaller place for less than $600K near Town Center area, and the only ones I can find are fixer uppers.

+100. Here in Clarksburg everyone moving in is a millennial or Gen-x couple with school aged kids. And houses here are going for $600K -$800K. You need a decent HHI to support that. Most are dual income households with white collared jobs. I'm not seeing the devastation that a few PPs are talking about.

[Anonymous]

What do jobs have to do with housing? A large part of folks in Bethesda Row, Rose and Pike Condos, Quarry Condos on River Road and a large amount of older people in big Potomac houses don't work. I say 75 percent of adults on my block don't work. Houses are in range 1.3 to 4.5 million in my block. Half block retired or independently wealthy, other half have stay at home spouses. Ladies who lunch is a big crowd

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm concerned that Montgomery County's planning commission has zero economic sense. There are close to 50,000 homes new homes in the pipeline in the next few years. These are almost all concentrated in Bethesda, Rockville, and Silver Spring. These homes are entering the market at the same time when there is a large bubble of residents moving into retirement which means downsizing and selling homes.

This type of surge of inventory can only work if there is a matching surge in potential buyers. If MOCO had won Amazon, it would be a good move but MOCO putting all its eggs in one basket with Amazon was a bad choice.

Its basic supply and demand. More choices than buyers always equals prices dropping. Inventory is a huge driver for local markets. In the next few years there will be far more expensive homes than buyers with the money and desire ti live in Montgomery County. This will push down prices. Developers are more numbers focused and will run a comparable against holding out or dropping the prices. Buyers will end up purchasing newer homes over older homes. Older home owners can be more stubborn and stick to pricing too high only to end up selling at even greater loss.

On the upside, the problem of people not being able to afford a 4 bedroom home will be alleviated in Montgomery County. On the downside, people who bought high will be out of luck. Just watch you'll be able to pick up a 600K older home in North Bethesda/Rockville and a 400K older home in close-in DTSS in a few years. Bethesda will start to see more 700K and 800K older homes become available.

Except not building single family homes

[Anonymous]

On the one hand, as you said, there are tons of new development, and they are not cheap by any means. I am seeing condo/TH along metro stops from Shady Grove down to TB go for $700K+. Then there is my neighborhood in Rockville where homes are going for $750K+.

How is all this considered MoCo going down the tubes? Sure, there are parts in MoCo that aren't doing that well, but some of the stuff people are posting on this thread make it seem like the whole of MoCo is suffering, and I just don't find this to be the case.

Spouse and I are nearing retirement, and we'd like to find a smaller place for less than $600K near Town Center area, and the only ones I can find are fixer uppers.

Rather than look at the 2-3 houses that have sold, look at all the remaining houses still on the market going into July. Look at the pipeline for development and how many newer houses are coming into the area in the next few years. Don't buy the overpriced fixer upper now. The leftover inventory combined with the new builds and new listings coming onto the market could flood the market.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What do jobs have to do with housing? A large part of folks in Bethesda Row, Rose and Pike Condos, Quarry Condos on River Road and a large amount of older people in big Potomac houses don't work. I say 75 percent of adults on my block don't work. Houses are in range 1.3 to 4.5 million in my block. Half block retired or independently wealthy, other half have stay at home spouses. Ladies who lunch is a big crowd

A friend of mine in Rockville said that lots of people in their neighborhood work from home. I do, too, but different neighborhood. And yes, many folks around me are retired. They bought their homes for $76K. They are now worth over $750K. Slowly, these retirees are selling and moving out. And the folks who buy them are couples with school aged children. Our school bus stop had two kids when we moved here, mine included. There are now 18 kids, and more next year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm concerned that Montgomery County's planning commission has zero economic sense. There are close to 50,000 homes new homes in the pipeline in the next few years. These are almost all concentrated in Bethesda, Rockville, and Silver Spring. These homes are entering the market at the same time when there is a large bubble of residents moving into retirement which means downsizing and selling homes.

This type of surge of inventory can only work if there is a matching surge in potential buyers. If MOCO had won Amazon, it would be a good move but MOCO putting all its eggs in one basket with Amazon was a bad choice.

Its basic supply and demand. More choices than buyers always equals prices dropping. Inventory is a huge driver for local markets. In the next few years there will be far more expensive homes than buyers with the money and desire ti live in Montgomery County. This will push down prices. Developers are more numbers focused and will run a comparable against holding out or dropping the prices. Buyers will end up purchasing newer homes over older homes. Older home owners can be more stubborn and stick to pricing too high only to end up selling at even greater loss.

On the upside, the problem of people not being able to afford a 4 bedroom home will be alleviated in Montgomery County. On the downside, people who bought high will be out of luck. Just watch you'll be able to pick up a 600K older home in North Bethesda/Rockville and a 400K older home in close-in DTSS in a few years. Bethesda will start to see more 700K and 800K older homes become available.

DP.. a lot of folks want SFH once their kids hit a certain age, and as a PP noted, developers aren't building many SFH.
Except not building single family homes

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm concerned that Montgomery County's planning commission has zero economic sense. There are close to 50,000 homes new homes in the pipeline in the next few years. These are almost all concentrated in Bethesda, Rockville, and Silver Spring. These homes are entering the market at the same time when there is a large bubble of residents moving into retirement which means downsizing and selling homes.

This type of surge of inventory can only work if there is a matching surge in potential buyers. If MOCO had won Amazon, it would be a good move but MOCO putting all its eggs in one basket with Amazon was a bad choice.

Its basic supply and demand. More choices than buyers always equals prices dropping. Inventory is a huge driver for local markets. In the next few years there will be far more expensive homes than buyers with the money and desire ti live in Montgomery County. This will push down prices. Developers are more numbers focused and will run a comparable against holding out or dropping the prices. Buyers will end up purchasing newer homes over older homes. Older home owners can be more stubborn and stick to pricing too high only to end up selling at even greater loss.

On the upside, the problem of people not being able to afford a 4 bedroom home will be alleviated in Montgomery County. On the downside, people who bought high will be out of luck. Just watch you'll be able to pick up a 600K older home in North Bethesda/Rockville and a 400K older home in close-in DTSS in a few years. Bethesda will start to see more 700K and 800K older homes become available.

On the one hand, as you said, there are tons of new development, and they are not cheap by any means. I am seeing condo/TH along metro stops from Shady Grove down to TB go for $700K+. Then there is my neighborhood in Rockville where homes are going for $750K+.

How is all this considered MoCo going down the tubes? Sure, there are parts in MoCo that aren't doing that well, but some of the stuff people are posting on this thread make it seem like the whole of MoCo is suffering, and I just don't find this to be the case.

Spouse and I are nearing retirement, and we'd like to find a smaller place for less than $600K near Town Center area, and the only ones I can find are fixer uppers.

MoCo's bleak economic outlook has been well publicized over the last several years by major outlets like WaPo and other local news sources. MoCo has an addiction to ridiculously high taxes, oppressive regulations and laws against businesses, and there is ridiculous red tape involved with simply opening up a business in MoCo. MoCo is very hostile towards business. As a result, organic job growth has suffered. Also, MoCo is running in the red, and the outlook for its finances looks very bleak....which is unprecedented since we've been in a very good economy for going on 10 years now. Running up huge deficits shouldn't be happening right now.

I'm not a Trump fanboy at all, but this is what happens when you get too far left. You create a climate that is anti-business, has oppressive taxes and spending that is so out of control it is destroying the future financial situation of the county govt. I'd be worried. And what if MoCo gets a double whammy of a govt sequester/budget cut? Without diversifying the economy, you're relying far too heavily on Uncle Sam for jobs. Uncle Sam is running up huge deficits, and with the massive influx of Baby Boomers retiring who'll start demanding their benefits, something will have to give. The govt will have to raise taxes, cut spending, cut SS benefits or some combo of all of the above. Once the economy starts declining taxes go up to try to plug holes in the county/city budget. That just encourages people to keep leaving, home prices to fall, and the cycle repeats as the deficits pile up. Same story happened with Baltimore. I have no idea where MoCo will be in 2022-2025, but I am OK waiting until then for purchasing a home. Woe be to the Joe Schmo who might have bought at an all time high before the economic bubble pops.

[Anonymous]

If it is true that housing prices are dropping in MoCo, why is it bad? It is already too expensive and unaffordable.
Do you guys think it will go downhill to the point that I can afford to buy a house in Bethesda for $400k?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The amount of infrastructure Arlington has invested in cannot he touched by most counties in the US. Unfortunately they did not invest in their schools soon enough so they may cap their skyrocketing appreciation.
Falls Church is a feeder and emulator of Arlington who could see more growth mid term.

Be careful what your politicians make you do.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Take just one factor - Thomas Jefferson. There are mountains of people who move from MoCo Fairfax just to be able to apply there. They have smart kids and the whole school is serving the best of the best in Fairfax. The dedicated school with all classes and the program tailored to their needs. MoCo could do the same but never will. Why? No idea.

You cannot be that clueless, can you?
The best of Fairfax, in fact the whole NoVa, cannot lit a candle to the best of MoCo.

The PP probably hyperbolized a bit, but your response is complete and utter nonsense. Look in your mirror to find the “clueless.”

No dear, not nonsense but the truth
I know the truth is hard to admit

This is hilarious but sad. The poster above had it right.

I pity your ignorance and seemingly teeny-tiny understanding of truth.

One of the truths is 37-4.
You can learn something on Saturday mornings.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If it is true that housing prices are dropping in MoCo, why is it bad? It is already too expensive and unaffordable.
Do you guys think it will go downhill to the point that I can afford to buy a house in Bethesda for $400k?

Sure, but remember as the boomers and their money leave the county and more multi family housing is planned, there will be less tax revenue. It's a downward spiral, you'll be able to aford that 400,000 house, but will you be able to afford the ever increasing taxes that will accompany it to compensate for the wealth that will leave and is leaving now?