Will Montgomery County ever recover?

[Anonymous]

Just looking at the appreciation forecasts for Arlington and Fairfax and feeling very depressed. If you had told me 15 years ago that houses would be selling for over 1M in Falls Church I would have never believed it. Our decision to move to Montgomery County over Falls Church or Arlington has probably cost us 600K-800K in lost opportunity equity. We were really on the fence at the time but thought that there was more room for appreciation in Montgomery County.

Is there any chance that things will flip around or will Montgomery County be stagnant or dropping for another 10 years?

[Anonymous]

Depends on what’s in style. Right now NoVa is hot because jobs and development are being pushed to the area. I’m another 5-10 years something else will be hot just like MoCo once was.

[Anonymous]

I tend to doubt MoCo is running 600-800k behind comparable properties in comparable locations. Neither Falls Church nor Arlington can be compared generically to “Montgomery county”.

[Anonymous]

Sadly no. I highly doubt it. Property value follows its school system. I don’t see MCPS turning back to old glory days.

[Anonymous]

It’s more Virginia is playing catch-up now. Still not at the levels of lower Montgomery County.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Just looking at the appreciation forecasts for Arlington and Fairfax and feeling very depressed. If you had told me 15 years ago that houses would be selling for over 1M in Falls Church I would have never believed it. Our decision to move to Montgomery County over Falls Church or Arlington has probably cost us 600K-800K in lost opportunity equity. We were really on the fence at the time but thought that there was more room for appreciation in Montgomery County.

Is there any chance that things will flip around or will Montgomery County be stagnant or dropping for another 10 years?

Montgomery County is undervalued now because most of the investors are chasing the Amazon hype. There are still a lot of deals to be had close to Metro stations that are near the Beltway. You can still buy SFHs near Forest Glen for under $500,000. That’s a steal for being a 20 minute Metro ride from DC, which is still the main economic driver in the area and always will be despite what VA boosters will tell you. NoVA prices can only go up so far, especially in bad school districts like South Arlington and Alexandria. Houses zoned for TC Williams will not get that far over houses zoned for Einstein, for example, when Einstein is a 5/10 to TC’s 2/10.

The Purple Line is a game changer as well. Let’s revisit this thread when it opens in 2-3 years. Anything near a Purple Line station between Silver Spring and Bethesda is a great buy.

Regardless of what happens, worst case scenario is that close in MoCo appreciates at a slower pace than DC or Arlington but still outpaces the rest of the nation. People need a place to live and prices are going to be SF levels around here in 5-10 years. Anywhere near public transit is a good buy, no matter what county.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Sadly no. I highly doubt it. Property value follows its school system. I don’t see MCPS turning back to old glory days.

Exactly. Their schools are trashed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sadly no. I highly doubt it. Property value follows its school system. I don’t see MCPS turning back to old glory days.

Exactly. Their schools are trashed.

You wish.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Just looking at the appreciation forecasts for Arlington and Fairfax and feeling very depressed. If you had told me 15 years ago that houses would be selling for over 1M in Falls Church I would have never believed it. Our decision to move to Montgomery County over Falls Church or Arlington has probably cost us 600K-800K in lost opportunity equity. We were really on the fence at the time but thought that there was more room for appreciation in Montgomery County.

Is there any chance that things will flip around or will Montgomery County be stagnant or dropping for another 10 years?

You've already lost if you treat your own housing more like the stock market than a roof over your head. If you have a nice house that you live in and enjoy and it is close to work and the house has at least held its value relative to inflation, then what are you complaining about? No one can easily predict which housing markets will actually exponentially increase over 20 - 30 years. Housing should be viewed as a place to live.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sadly no. I highly doubt it. Property value follows its school system. I don’t see MCPS turning back to old glory days.

Exactly. Their schools are trashed.

Sigh... yes, generally speaking, MCPS is trashed but there are still pockets of good schools left. Less and less each year.

[Anonymous]

The amount of infrastructure Arlington has invested in cannot he touched by most counties in the US. Unfortunately they did not invest in their schools soon enough so they may cap their skyrocketing appreciation.
Falls Church is a feeder and emulator of Arlington who could see more growth mid term.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sadly no. I highly doubt it. Property value follows its school system. I don’t see MCPS turning back to old glory days.

Exactly. Their schools are trashed.

You wish.

Okay, I live in reality world, you clearly live in denial (and were not talking about a river in Egypt). The schools are beyond trashed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sadly no. I highly doubt it. Property value follows its school system. I don’t see MCPS turning back to old glory days.

Exactly. Their schools are trashed.

Sigh... yes, generally speaking, MCPS is trashed but there are still pockets of good schools left. Less and less each year.

Wow pls tell me what are the good schools left. You must have experience in mcps..

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sadly no. I highly doubt it. Property value follows its school system. I don’t see MCPS turning back to old glory days.

Exactly. Their schools are trashed.

You wish.

Okay, I live in reality world, you clearly live in denial (and were not talking about a river in Egypt). The schools are beyond trashed.

Pls provide data that supports this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sadly no. I highly doubt it. Property value follows its school system. I don’t see MCPS turning back to old glory days.

Exactly. Their schools are trashed.

Sigh... yes, generally speaking, MCPS is trashed but there are still pockets of good schools left. Less and less each year.

Wow pls tell me what are the good schools left. You must have experience in mcps..

Been here 30 years, my kids were born and raised here in moco. Kids spent almost 40 years in MCPS so, yeah, I do have experience and history with moco/MCPS. You?