Do I Need to Save More for Retirement?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:You are fine to buy the car. People have a messed up mentality about retirement. In your 80s you will be sitting in your living room unable to travel. Enjoy your funds now and you will still be fine.

Very true. While not everyone is the same as there are active and fit people in their mid to late 80s who travel internationally, most people do slow down at that age and travel takes on a different risk. The average age of my parents' friends is around 80 and most people are living at home, not in retirement communities, most are still doing some low key travel a few times a year, mainly to see family, some international trips, some to second homes. There's a rhythm to their lives that isn't extravagant but comfortable and I don't doubt most are spending less than their incomes. Having said that, there is an increase in talk about putting deposits down for an apartment in a CCRC as people advance in their 80s, and it's because they do slow down and you don't want the headache of maintaining a house and suddenly a modest size apartment inclusive of all the bills isn't such a bad idea nor as costly as it might initially seem. On the other hand, I also know some people that age who downsized not to a CCRC but to a nice condo.

However, I did ask chatgpt what the probabilities are for a healthy 45 year old UMC male for his health in retirement. The result was:

40-50% largely independent until death or near death
30-40% need some assistance (home care, assisted living, limited nursing support) for a period of time before death
20-30% experience a major physical or cognitive decline requiring prolonged, expensive nursing home level care. This would include advanced dementia such as Alzheimers, severe stroke, Parkinsons with major functional impairment.

However, while there are differing durations for how long you survive with catastrophic health decline, the average is usually a few years. You could be incredibly unlucky and be one of the handful that live for 10 years in this condition, but in the US the median length of stay in nursing homes before death is 1-2 years. Though this would be after a few years of partial care in your old home.

The biggest problem a healthy UMC person faces when planning for retirement is that we now live so long that you risk developing physical and cognitive decline in your late 80s. This is a minority risk as you have a 70-80% chance of dying with minimal aid needed or partial aid in the last few years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My SIL's parents pay $18,000 per month for their nursing home.

Why is that so cheap? Is it in a ghetto?
My parents pay $61k per month for theirs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Try asking ChatGPT

Stop outsourcing your brain!

AI is fabulous. All intelligent people use AI to be better informed and to help make better decisions. The problem for the future will be the gulf between people who use AI to be even smarter and those who shun AI, who will fall behind.

Anyway, pertinent to this thread is that AI is revolutionizing healthcare. It may mean that a lot of the aging problems requiring substantial expensive care may actually be mitigated through AI.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP, you're finding out that this forum is super conservative when it comes to planning for retirement. According to quite a few posters, having $10M in retirement is barely enough to keep you in a tent on the streets. In your case, if you stopped contributing a single penny more outside social security contributions, your money will keep growing and you'll have a few million plus a comfortable SS income. Which is more than most people will ever have. Certainly enough to live comfortably off a 4% draw plus SS especially once you have no mortgage.

You'll also discover that people vastly overestimate how much they really need for retirement. My widowed mother lives off $135k between pension and SS and her life is comfortable, paid off house, several trips a year, lots of social activities. She always complains she's too busy. Retired ladies lunch a lot! She has friends from her teaching days who have significantly less and are still happy and living well.

People freak out about the costs of continuing care communities but they only look at the extreme examples. The very nice one my mother is vaguely looking at starts at $4k a month for a person in a 1-bedroom apartment once you buy the unit, and that includes virtually all the bills. It goes up if you want a bigger apartment. Full service dementia care can start out at $10k a month but if you're at that point, you're not living very long. The average is 2-3 years. And many if not most elderly people survive just fine without continuing care communities, staying in their homes. My grandparents lived into their 90s and stayed at home till the very end. They had help at the very end but we're talking about 1-2 years at most.

Look around the US. Do we have an epidemic of elderly homeless people, abandoned to starve on the streets? Nope. Somehow it all works out.

I'm in a similar position as you agewise and net worth and know the feeling of being frugal and hard working for the last 20 years and wanting to enjoy some of it now. Continuing our savings pattern, even factoring in two big bear markets between now and 2046 (my planned retirement year goal), we will end up with a significantly larger retirement income than our current income. Which is a bit weird given that we live nicely now.

I do have these thoughts re enjoying life now versus delaying gratifications until retirement. My biggest fear is less retirement savings but getting laid off in my 50s and struggling to find replacement jobs, although truth be told, pretty much everyone I know who was ever reorganized out did find new jobs, perhaps not at the same income levels for some of them, but more than enough to keep life going. Right now the plan is to continue the aggressive savings till I'm 50 and then reevaluate. Priorities have also changed the older I get, a few years ago I'd have been hungry for a bigger house but now I prize my 2.7% mortgage and ain't ever giving that up as we still live in a nice neighborhood, just in a slightly too small house. But I can see us spending a bit more on travel and maybe nicer cars than our standard Japanese vehicles. And if we hit 60 and the retirement goals are on target, then we'll sell and move somewhere nice in one of our preferred locations. Suggest you look at finding a balance in your life between future goals and what you'd like now.

I don't know about this. My father has dementia. My mother is alive and cares for him at the expense of her own health, and they have full-time care. He should be in facility. His neurologist says he could live 10 more years.

You can Google it. The average duration in dementia care is 2-3 years.

My father did not have dementia, he had PSP, but he was at home with some home aid in the last few months. It did not cost $10k a month.

I am not discounting that some people do get slammed by elderly decline, ending up costing a fortune. Most do not. In OP's case, he is already in a good place financially and keeping up moderate contributions on top of his current investments will put him in a good place to handle just about anything elder care throws at him. He doesn't need to agonize over every penny today. There are people who are extremely frugal for retirement and delay all gratification, and drop dead of a stroke or heart attack at 65. Find a balance.

I am sorry to hear about your dad.

PSP is rare, and fast. Alzheimers is common, and slow.

PSP is rare. Typically 5 to 8 years expectancy from onset of symptoms. Alzheimers, while much more common, still isn't wildly common either and life expectancy is 7 to 10 years from symptom onset. In both cases most sufferers receive care from family at home, typically transitioning to institutional care at the very end. That's how most families manage. It's not diagnosis --> memory care wing the next day ---> 10 years of massive bills.

the problem is when dementia strikes people who are physically fit and healthy; demential comorbid with infirmity/old age does typically only last 2-3 years.

an angry, suspicious, and strong patient in their 70s? you can't care for them at home for long. i mean, i tried-- had cameras set up and brought food, but eventually the state got involved after too many wanderings/neighbor confrontations.

they'd probably still be in memory care at 10k/mo each if covid (at memory care) hadn't killed them.

one of the patients was a marine in his 50s. that was heartbreaking. he probably will be there for another 10-15 years at least

Yes to this.

There are a lot of strong healthy dementia patients who lived over 20 years, needed someone to care for them


My grand ma started mild cognitive dysfunction around 70s she s really heathy. First she couldn’t drive because she couldn’t find her way back home. So my grands parents moved from Canada to Thailand where she has a driver.
After that she kind of in and out of it, accusing people and maids of stealing her stuffs such as bras and panties. But she was really able body like she can cook, she can do self care. But she definitely couldn’t live alone because if she goes out for grocery she wouldn’t be able to find her way back.

Around her late 80s, she could care for herself such as shower or clean up properly. But she can walk, she can have superficial conversation and converse with peoples seamingly normal. She has a live in maid and my grandfather ( he could be Arely walk but still sharp) she passed away at 94.


So the time that she was in dementia and needed 24hours care was about 20 years. Fortunately she moved to Thailand she she had help and our family was able to care for her.
So 2-3 years is very optimistic. That didn’t take in to any account for someone healthy with dement-and all the family helps prior to being in facility.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP, you're finding out that this forum is super conservative when it comes to planning for retirement. According to quite a few posters, having $10M in retirement is barely enough to keep you in a tent on the streets. In your case, if you stopped contributing a single penny more outside social security contributions, your money will keep growing and you'll have a few million plus a comfortable SS income. Which is more than most people will ever have. Certainly enough to live comfortably off a 4% draw plus SS especially once you have no mortgage.

You'll also discover that people vastly overestimate how much they really need for retirement. My widowed mother lives off $135k between pension and SS and her life is comfortable, paid off house, several trips a year, lots of social activities. She always complains she's too busy. Retired ladies lunch a lot! She has friends from her teaching days who have significantly less and are still happy and living well.

People freak out about the costs of continuing care communities but they only look at the extreme examples. The very nice one my mother is vaguely looking at starts at $4k a month for a person in a 1-bedroom apartment once you buy the unit, and that includes virtually all the bills. It goes up if you want a bigger apartment. Full service dementia care can start out at $10k a month but if you're at that point, you're not living very long. The average is 2-3 years. And many if not most elderly people survive just fine without continuing care communities, staying in their homes. My grandparents lived into their 90s and stayed at home till the very end. They had help at the very end but we're talking about 1-2 years at most.

Look around the US. Do we have an epidemic of elderly homeless people, abandoned to starve on the streets? Nope. Somehow it all works out.

I'm in a similar position as you agewise and net worth and know the feeling of being frugal and hard working for the last 20 years and wanting to enjoy some of it now. Continuing our savings pattern, even factoring in two big bear markets between now and 2046 (my planned retirement year goal), we will end up with a significantly larger retirement income than our current income. Which is a bit weird given that we live nicely now.

I do have these thoughts re enjoying life now versus delaying gratifications until retirement. My biggest fear is less retirement savings but getting laid off in my 50s and struggling to find replacement jobs, although truth be told, pretty much everyone I know who was ever reorganized out did find new jobs, perhaps not at the same income levels for some of them, but more than enough to keep life going. Right now the plan is to continue the aggressive savings till I'm 50 and then reevaluate. Priorities have also changed the older I get, a few years ago I'd have been hungry for a bigger house but now I prize my 2.7% mortgage and ain't ever giving that up as we still live in a nice neighborhood, just in a slightly too small house. But I can see us spending a bit more on travel and maybe nicer cars than our standard Japanese vehicles. And if we hit 60 and the retirement goals are on target, then we'll sell and move somewhere nice in one of our preferred locations. Suggest you look at finding a balance in your life between future goals and what you'd like now.

I don't know about this. My father has dementia. My mother is alive and cares for him at the expense of her own health, and they have full-time care. He should be in facility. His neurologist says he could live 10 more years.

You can Google it. The average duration in dementia care is 2-3 years.

My father did not have dementia, he had PSP, but he was at home with some home aid in the last few months. It did not cost $10k a month.

I am not discounting that some people do get slammed by elderly decline, ending up costing a fortune. Most do not. In OP's case, he is already in a good place financially and keeping up moderate contributions on top of his current investments will put him in a good place to handle just about anything elder care throws at him. He doesn't need to agonize over every penny today. There are people who are extremely frugal for retirement and delay all gratification, and drop dead of a stroke or heart attack at 65. Find a balance.

I am sorry to hear about your dad.

PSP is rare, and fast. Alzheimers is common, and slow.

PSP is rare. Typically 5 to 8 years expectancy from onset of symptoms. Alzheimers, while much more common, still isn't wildly common either and life expectancy is 7 to 10 years from symptom onset. In both cases most sufferers receive care from family at home, typically transitioning to institutional care at the very end. That's how most families manage. It's not diagnosis --> memory care wing the next day ---> 10 years of massive bills.

the problem is when dementia strikes people who are physically fit and healthy; demential comorbid with infirmity/old age does typically only last 2-3 years.

an angry, suspicious, and strong patient in their 70s? you can't care for them at home for long. i mean, i tried-- had cameras set up and brought food, but eventually the state got involved after too many wanderings/neighbor confrontations.

they'd probably still be in memory care at 10k/mo each if covid (at memory care) hadn't killed them.

one of the patients was a marine in his 50s. that was heartbreaking. he probably will be there for another 10-15 years at least

Yes to this.

There are a lot of strong healthy dementia patients who lived over 20 years, needed someone to care for them


My grand ma started mild cognitive dysfunction around 70s she s really heathy. First she couldn’t drive because she couldn’t find her way back home. So my grands parents moved from Canada to Thailand where she has a driver.
After that she kind of in and out of it, accusing people and maids of stealing her stuffs such as bras and panties. But she was really able body like she can cook, she can do self care. But she definitely couldn’t live alone because if she goes out for grocery she wouldn’t be able to find her way back.

Around her late 80s, she could care for herself such as shower or clean up properly. But she can walk, she can have superficial conversation and converse with peoples seamingly normal. She has a live in maid and my grandfather ( he could be Arely walk but still sharp) she passed away at 94.


So the time that she was in dementia and needed 24hours care was about 20 years. Fortunately she moved to Thailand she she had help and our family was able to care for her.
So 2-3 years is very optimistic. That didn’t take in to any account for someone healthy with dement-and all the family helps prior to being in facility.

Anecdotal is not the same as a statistic. The data is pretty clear what the typical life expectancy is when you enter full nursing care. There are always exceptions. You can plan your life and retirement around being one of the exceptions. Up to you. But you did illustrate what most people do, which is some years of family care provided by a spouse and local children, before permanent full time care if it gets to that point. Then it's bye bye, see you in the next world. And you're in the same place as everyone else.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My mom’s care has cost about $400,000 over the past two years. Don’t discount the cost of elder care.

Can you elaborate on why it is so high? Is that the total monthly cost at a high care place?

She's in late stage dementia. She's been in memory care for almost 2.5 years. Fell last summer and since then I've had to provide private overnight care for her (12 hours each night). Really it's for fall prevention because for some reason they consider any rails or preventative measures to be a restraint so I pay to have someone watch her sleep and make sure she doesn't try to get out of bed (or fall out of bed). It's over $14000 per month for memory care and just over $3k a week for overnight care. The silver lining is I've been able to convert some of her 401k into a roth due to the entirety of the medical care being deductible. She'd be mortified.

[Anonymous]

I feel like the folks paying for 10 years of in home care are outliers.

My moved moved to assisted living at 82, cost went from 6500 to 8k month as she needed more help. She was in a very nice facility in terms of her apartment, food amenities etc. however as her dementia became more pronounced we had to mover her to memory care and switched eventually to a smaller and more expensive place which was about 11k month. She was in memory care a total of a year, and died at 85. While the last three years of her life were expensive relative to before it wasn’t millions. She had a pension of 3.5k month, a small social security (1.5k) and retirement accounts. We didn’t even need to sell her house, though it was in the table.

So yes, plan for long term care but most people will need not millions for it. There are some life insurance products with a ltc rider that may be worth it (10 or 20k upfront for 300k ltc costs and if unused kids can get back something).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My mom’s care has cost about $400,000 over the past two years. Don’t discount the cost of elder care.

Can you elaborate on why it is so high? Is that the total monthly cost at a high care place?

She's in late stage dementia. She's been in memory care for almost 2.5 years. Fell last summer and since then I've had to provide private overnight care for her (12 hours each night). Really it's for fall prevention because for some reason they consider any rails or preventative measures to be a restraint so I pay to have someone watch her sleep and make sure she doesn't try to get out of bed (or fall out of bed). It's over $14000 per month for memory care and just over $3k a week for overnight care. The silver lining is I've been able to convert some of her 401k into a roth due to the entirety of the medical care being deductible. She'd be mortified.

So you're paying someone to sit there and watch her sleep? Can I get this job? $12000 a month to do nothing?