Reply to Do I Need to Save More for Retirement?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]You are fine to buy the car. People have a messed up mentality about retirement. In your 80s you will be sitting in your living room unable to travel. Enjoy your funds now and you will still be fine. [/quote]

Very true. While not everyone is the same as there are active and fit people in their mid to late 80s who travel internationally, most people do slow down at that age and travel takes on a different risk. The average age of my parents' friends is around 80 and most people are living at home, not in retirement communities, most are still doing some low key travel a few times a year, mainly to see family, some international trips, some to second homes. There's a rhythm to their lives that isn't extravagant but comfortable and I don't doubt most are spending less than their incomes. Having said that, there is an increase in talk about putting deposits down for an apartment in a CCRC as people advance in their 80s, and it's because they do slow down and you don't want the headache of maintaining a house and suddenly a modest size apartment inclusive of all the bills isn't such a bad idea nor as costly as it might initially seem. On the other hand, I also know some people that age who downsized not to a CCRC but to a nice condo.

However, I did ask chatgpt what the probabilities are for a healthy 45 year old UMC male for his health in retirement. The result was:

40-50% largely independent until death or near death
30-40% need some assistance (home care, assisted living, limited nursing support) for a period of time before death
20-30% experience a major physical or cognitive decline requiring prolonged, expensive nursing home level care. This would include advanced dementia such as Alzheimers, severe stroke, Parkinsons with major functional impairment. 
 
However, while there are differing durations for how long you survive with catastrophic health decline, the average is usually a few years. You could be incredibly unlucky and be one of the handful that live for 10 years in this condition, but in the US the median length of stay in nursing homes before death is 1-2 years. Though this would be after a few years of partial care in your old home.

The biggest problem a healthy UMC person faces when planning for retirement is that we now live so long that you risk developing physical and cognitive decline in your late 80s. This is a minority risk as you have a 70-80% chance of dying with minimal aid needed or partial aid in the last few years. [/quote]

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