Who in the world would buy or sell a house in the DMV right now?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Trump announces a month-long pause on Mexican tariffs after a conversation with Mexican President, who promised to send 10K soldiers to the border, per CNN.

This is exactly what we've been telling you headless chickens! Trump is not rational. He can't even follow through on his own promises. He's a mob boss who changes tactics all the time. Musk is no better. There is no way either of them can actually do the things they claimed they would do. They're incompetent.

Instead of sinking into a pit of despair and making ridiculous pronouncements on the death of the DC area, calm down and understand the nature of the beast in front of you.

I'll have to read about the latest news re Mexico, but if he got the Mexican president to agree to send 10k soldiers to the border to help stop illegal migration, there is a victory there for Trump. He was always clear about using tariffs as a cudgel to get Mexico and even Canada to agree to proactively monitor their borders on their sides.

If Musk and Co are successful at major restructuring reform of the "deep state" there could be long term implications for the region but not necessarily how some wish it. I'm reminded of Southern California when the defense plants all shut down, overnight a large and lucrative industry was gone and the region was plunged into recession territory and housing prices dropped sharply. This was late 80s-early 90s. But then California rebounded and house prices boomed and never stopped booming. The forced diversification of SoCal paid off. That may actually happen to the DMV.

Don’t be naive. Those same solders will aid the cartel in delivering elicit drugs in this country more effectively. This is a not win. I don’t understand how you could easily believe that it is

This is spot on. An analyst on CNBC was commenting on how probably 8000 of the 10000 are in the cartels’ pockets, so the drug dealers are ecstatic.

I'm aware there are many on DCUM who can never, ever, under any circumstances, ever allow any modicum of realism in Trump's action. Everything has to be sneeringly nitpicked apart by people with enormous hatred of the man. Since I don't fall into this category and live in a world of realism, this is a victory for Trump. At a minimum, the presence of 10k Mexican soldiers across the border means the US has leverage over Mexico's failure to act simply by pointing to the soldiers across the border. Previously Mexico could turn a blind eye simply by not being there. US sees Mexican soldiers not doing anything while illegal migrants cross over, US charges Mexico with violation of agreements and has documented proof that it uses as leverage in renegotiating agreements. Do you understand now? This is called realpolitiks, not angry wishcasting screeds.

These troops have been deployed in the past, and this current round was already negotiated and agreed on under Biden. Mexico played Trump like a fiddle. All he wants is a good headline and the policy itself is irrelevant. If this is a win for Trump it's purely a political win because idiots swallow it hook line and sinker. Nothing actually changed except unnecessary shockwaves through the economy.

[Anonymous]

If you’re an attorney, the Trump years are easy money. This administration is so incompetent and corrupt that the complaints write themselves.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The only people buying are tromp appointees he’s bringing in from the hinterlands, and they are paying top dollar only to sell at 25% in 4 years

I know plenty of non-appointees with money waiting for prices to drop. I’d buy some investment properties if prices were to drop to an attractive level.

+1 if the real estate market crashes, I plan to buy a nice condo in DC for retirement. There is so much new condo construction that they'll be unloading them at a fraction of their former asking prices.

[Anonymous]

Once more, continued whiplash I am seeing on an anecdotal level:

- DOJ attorney left in December and was given two offers almost immediately by two different companies that are now setting up DC operations because they feel like they need boots-on-the ground. Much more money, but of course more hours.

It's now the squeaky wheel principle...everyone needs to lobby for their pet causes and they need to do it in person in DC.

- USAID folks who actually never have been based in DC, now told they need to "return to DC". Seems like these people will be renters until they understand what the heck is happening.

- On another thread, someone from HHS indicated that of 25 employees in their division, 24 live 90 miles + of DC and are told they need to RTO in DC. Exempt from layoffs, so they either RTO or get another job, however, no impact on local housing (and again, those employees are technically DC employees, even though they aren't).

Seems like there may be a rush on SFH rentals as I would imagine many of these RTO folks need to decide if they will stay long-term.

Certain Upper NW SFH homes going under contract in days ($1.1MM to $3.0MM price points)...while others needing extensive reno or semi-detached lingering.

Make what you will of any of this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Once more, continued whiplash I am seeing on an anecdotal level:

- DOJ attorney left in December and was given two offers almost immediately by two different companies that are now setting up DC operations because they feel like they need boots-on-the ground. Much more money, but of course more hours.

It's now the squeaky wheel principle...everyone needs to lobby for their pet causes and they need to do it in person in DC.

- USAID folks who actually never have been based in DC, now told they need to "return to DC". Seems like these people will be renters until they understand what the heck is happening.

- On another thread, someone from HHS indicated that of 25 employees in their division, 24 live 90 miles + of DC and are told they need to RTO in DC. Exempt from layoffs, so they either RTO or get another job, however, no impact on local housing (and again, those employees are technically DC employees, even though they aren't).

Seems like there may be a rush on SFH rentals as I would imagine many of these RTO folks need to decide if they will stay long-term.

Certain Upper NW SFH homes going under contract in days ($1.1MM to $3.0MM price points)...while others needing extensive reno or semi-detached lingering.

Make what you will of any of this.

I’d love to see more anecdotes like this. On the DOJ attorney- it’s great news but the caliber of DOJ attorney is significantly higher than other agencies. I don’t mean this as a dig on other agencies. It’s just the typical DOJ attorney is better regarded, well credentialed, likely has a stronger network and therefore “easier” for them to land on their feet.

[Anonymous]

Anyone who is not a FED

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Once more, continued whiplash I am seeing on an anecdotal level:

- DOJ attorney left in December and was given two offers almost immediately by two different companies that are now setting up DC operations because they feel like they need boots-on-the ground. Much more money, but of course more hours.

It's now the squeaky wheel principle...everyone needs to lobby for their pet causes and they need to do it in person in DC.

- USAID folks who actually never have been based in DC, now told they need to "return to DC". Seems like these people will be renters until they understand what the heck is happening.

- On another thread, someone from HHS indicated that of 25 employees in their division, 24 live 90 miles + of DC and are told they need to RTO in DC. Exempt from layoffs, so they either RTO or get another job, however, no impact on local housing (and again, those employees are technically DC employees, even though they aren't).

Seems like there may be a rush on SFH rentals as I would imagine many of these RTO folks need to decide if they will stay long-term.

Certain Upper NW SFH homes going under contract in days ($1.1MM to $3.0MM price points)...while others needing extensive reno or semi-detached lingering.

Make what you will of any of this.

I’d love to see more anecdotes like this. On the DOJ attorney- it’s great news but the caliber of DOJ attorney is significantly higher than other agencies. I don’t mean this as a dig on other agencies. It’s just the typical DOJ attorney is better regarded, well credentialed, likely has a stronger network and therefore “easier” for them to land on their feet.

True, but in theory the other company (the offer the DOJ person declined) still either hired or needs to hire a DC-based attorney at $250k+.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Here's my assessment for Bethesda, where I live:

1. There has always been less inventory than demand. It's always been a seller's market.

2. Interest rates will probably stay the same this year, which will continue to put off some buyers.

3. But prices have always tended to rise in Bethesda (except when they stagnated in the 2008 recession), so even with high interest rates, it might be worth buying then refinancing when interest rates eventually go back down a little.

4. As for people moving in and out of the area: RTO forces people to stay, and some of these people will expand their families and upgrade their living situations. This will compensate for firings and resignations and families leaving the area. So overall I'm guessing there will be just as much need for housing as before, probably incrementally more, because all capital cities tend to expand regardless of economic times and politics.

5. I am expecting a cooling of the vaunted spring market of 2025, since there will be uncertainty around federal employment and fed contractors... but it will be temporary and people will mentally adjust when they have a better idea of what will happen to them.

Keep dreaming. A large number of Fed and private sector workers are about to lose their jobs. The housing market here will crash.

yes, everything I read anticipates a crash. Clearly realtors on on doing damage control.
You're an idiot if you upgrade your house right now. It will take 20 years to break even.

Found the salty renter.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:lol. People in the private sector?

The DC area has practically no independent private sector. It is a company town of the first order.

You are a moron.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People are returning to work in DC in droves. They are looking for close-in homes near DC. After 5 years of working out of the house and moving away, people are returning and moving back.

He is firing 1/2 the federal work force and moving the rest. There are 4 time the number of contractors vs federal employees. Those people are gone. There will be a huge glut of housing as people are forced to sell.

[Anonymous]

I'll worry more about this if/when they actually fire anyone who isn't probational.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We were trying to sell our dc rowhouse for months, but then flipped the switch and rented it out. We have a low interest rate and were able to get a good rent. We feel very lucky with our timing (after being unlucky for months of low-ball offers we couldn't accept.) Once the 2 year lease is up, we'll reassess, but are inclined to keep renting.

Keep renting. Rent is going up faster than appreciation in some places.

[Anonymous]

DC housing has such a high demand and people been waiting for years to buy that any slight decrease in prices will be bought up right away.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:DC housing has such a high demand and people been waiting for years to buy that any slight decrease in prices will be bought up right away.

Yep. Plus the area still has a TON of all cash buyers. Take Arlington for example, in 2024 I think it was something like 23% of SFH purchases were all cash - that's 1 out of every 5 homes which is nuts when the median SFH there is over $1.3M.

If we start to see the cash buyer %'s drop significantly that will indicate to me the $$ is drying up, otherwise there's just too much money (whether family $ or from non-gov related high income jobs or both) and demand in this area combined with historically low supply.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:DC housing has such a high demand and people been waiting for years to buy that any slight decrease in prices will be bought up right away.

lol the market is going to crash. Anyone would be crazy to buy a house in the DMV for the next two years.