Who in the world would buy or sell a house in the DMV right now?

[Anonymous]

lol. People in the private sector?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Logic would say that close in areas will increase in value because of RTO and further out would go down.

People will sell their further out houses and move inside the beltway. We've always bought inside the beltway but covid did a weird change on values further out. Should go back to pre-covid fundamentals

[Anonymous]

Here's my assessment for Bethesda, where I live:

1. There has always been less inventory than demand. It's always been a seller's market.

2. Interest rates will probably stay the same this year, which will continue to put off some buyers.

3. But prices have always tended to rise in Bethesda (except when they stagnated in the 2008 recession), so even with high interest rates, it might be worth buying then refinancing when interest rates eventually go back down a little.

4. As for people moving in and out of the area: RTO forces people to stay, and some of these people will expand their families and upgrade their living situations. This will compensate for firings and resignations and families leaving the area. So overall I'm guessing there will be just as much need for housing as before, probably incrementally more, because all capital cities tend to expand regardless of economic times and politics.

5. I am expecting a cooling of the vaunted spring market of 2025, since there will be uncertainty around federal employment and fed contractors... but it will be temporary and people will mentally adjust when they have a better idea of what will happen to them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Here's my assessment for Bethesda, where I live:

1. There has always been less inventory than demand. It's always been a seller's market.

2. Interest rates will probably stay the same this year, which will continue to put off some buyers.

3. But prices have always tended to rise in Bethesda (except when they stagnated in the 2008 recession), so even with high interest rates, it might be worth buying then refinancing when interest rates eventually go back down a little.

4. As for people moving in and out of the area: RTO forces people to stay, and some of these people will expand their families and upgrade their living situations. This will compensate for firings and resignations and families leaving the area. So overall I'm guessing there will be just as much need for housing as before, probably incrementally more, because all capital cities tend to expand regardless of economic times and politics.

5. I am expecting a cooling of the vaunted spring market of 2025, since there will be uncertainty around federal employment and fed contractors... but it will be temporary and people will mentally adjust when they have a better idea of what will happen to them.

Keep dreaming. A large number of Fed and private sector workers are about to lose their jobs. The housing market here will crash.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Here's my assessment for Bethesda, where I live:

1. There has always been less inventory than demand. It's always been a seller's market.

2. Interest rates will probably stay the same this year, which will continue to put off some buyers.

3. But prices have always tended to rise in Bethesda (except when they stagnated in the 2008 recession), so even with high interest rates, it might be worth buying then refinancing when interest rates eventually go back down a little.

4. As for people moving in and out of the area: RTO forces people to stay, and some of these people will expand their families and upgrade their living situations. This will compensate for firings and resignations and families leaving the area. So overall I'm guessing there will be just as much need for housing as before, probably incrementally more, because all capital cities tend to expand regardless of economic times and politics.

5. I am expecting a cooling of the vaunted spring market of 2025, since there will be uncertainty around federal employment and fed contractors... but it will be temporary and people will mentally adjust when they have a better idea of what will happen to them.

Keep dreaming. A large number of Fed and private sector workers are about to lose their jobs. The housing market here will crash.

yes, everything I read anticipates a crash. Clearly realtors on on doing damage control.
You're an idiot if you upgrade your house right now. It will take 20 years to break even.

[Anonymous]

People that are not poor and don’t need a mortgage are still buying

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:lol. People in the private sector?

The DC area has practically no independent private sector. It is a company town of the first order.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:lol. People in the private sector?

The DC area has practically no independent private sector. It is a company town of the first order.

Unlike what Musk et al want you to believe, this is not a "typical" company town that can be dismantled, merged, and sold to private companies. While I have no doubt that the federal government will shrink, it won't shrink anytime soon and not to the extent that Trump and Musk think it can. First of all, it'll take ages to get through the avalanche of law suits resulting from these asinine EOs, and second, once the Democrats take over with mid-term elections the cuts will stall. People will always need healthcare, schools, tech, food, etc.

[Anonymous]

This applies outside of the DMV though. Federal grant funding is the backbone of universities, of a lot of healthcare, of plenty of private companies. Instability of this scale isn't just going to be felt within 50 miles of the White House. Just ask the folks in South Dakota who rely on Lutheran Social Services.

[Anonymous]

My brother and SIL are both speciality surgeons and just upgraded to a new house last month.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:lol. People in the private sector?

The DC area has practically no independent private sector. It is a company town of the first order.

Unlike what Musk et al want you to believe, this is not a "typical" company town that can be dismantled, merged, and sold to private companies. While I have no doubt that the federal government will shrink, it won't shrink anytime soon and not to the extent that Trump and Musk think it can. First of all, it'll take ages to get through the avalanche of law suits resulting from these asinine EOs, and second, once the Democrats take over with mid-term elections the cuts will stall. People will always need healthcare, schools, tech, food, etc.

Yes. DCUM has taken federal navel-gazing to entirely irrational levels. Despite what MAGA/DOGE wants, there won't be mass firings such that the regional economy grinds to a halt. It just can't physically happen. Just like mass deportations cannot happen - not for lack of desire on the part of the Evil Empire, but because they cost too much.

I know you're all so scared that you've lost your minds, but if it's at all possible for you, calm down and use your brain.

[Anonymous]

Companies are buying to build portfolios and force people to rent forever.

[Anonymous]

Trump announces a month-long pause on Mexican tariffs after a conversation with Mexican President, who promised to send 10K soldiers to the border, per CNN.

This is exactly what we've been telling you headless chickens! Trump is not rational. He can't even follow through on his own promises. He's a mob boss who changes tactics all the time. Musk is no better. There is no way either of them can actually do the things they claimed they would do. They're incompetent.

Instead of sinking into a pit of despair and making ridiculous pronouncements on the death of the DC area, calm down and understand the nature of the beast in front of you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Trump announces a month-long pause on Mexican tariffs after a conversation with Mexican President, who promised to send 10K soldiers to the border, per CNN.

This is exactly what we've been telling you headless chickens! Trump is not rational. He can't even follow through on his own promises. He's a mob boss who changes tactics all the time. Musk is no better. There is no way either of them can actually do the things they claimed they would do. They're incompetent.

Instead of sinking into a pit of despair and making ridiculous pronouncements on the death of the DC area, calm down and understand the nature of the beast in front of you.

I'll have to read about the latest news re Mexico, but if he got the Mexican president to agree to send 10k soldiers to the border to help stop illegal migration, there is a victory there for Trump. He was always clear about using tariffs as a cudgel to get Mexico and even Canada to agree to proactively monitor their borders on their sides.

If Musk and Co are successful at major restructuring reform of the "deep state" there could be long term implications for the region but not necessarily how some wish it. I'm reminded of Southern California when the defense plants all shut down, overnight a large and lucrative industry was gone and the region was plunged into recession territory and housing prices dropped sharply. This was late 80s-early 90s. But then California rebounded and house prices boomed and never stopped booming. The forced diversification of SoCal paid off. That may actually happen to the DMV.

[Anonymous]

Why not? I had to abruptly sell my local dcumlandia childhood home after my last parent died.

Things happen. People age, move to assisted living, die, divorce, become empty nesters, downsize and need to move for a variety of reasons.