Harris beating Trump in Iowa

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This thread is unhinged - I voted for Harris over two weeks ago but Harris isn’t winning Ohio, Florida or Iowa. Some of y’all are going to have a very difficult Tuesday night.

+1 ditto!!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Keep dreaming about Iowa you liberal fools.

Make sure you have you “safe spaces” set up on Wednesday so you can go there and cry together.

Trump has two problems in Iowa abortion and farmers.

Farmers went bankrupt at a high rate because of his policies.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:A democrat just told me Harris is going to win Florida and Iowa. Not sure where this surge is coming from but I don’t buy it.

How many Haitian voters are in Florida?
How many Puerto Rican voters are in Florida?
how many women over 65+ who are horrified about reproductive rights live in Florida?

I could totally see it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is happening people! Thank goodness.

Trump beat Biden in Iowa by 8 pts in 2020. Harris has overtaken him.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

Trump is toast.

Women in a 90% white state are saying " we're NOT going back!"

Pennsylvania is probably looking much better for Harris.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Emerson poll has Trump +10 in Iowa. But feel free to cling to whatever poll makes you happier.

Yes but Selzer is THE Iowa pollster. Emerson polls nationally and is parachuting in.

I'm really struggling with this because the gulf is so wide, but I trust Selzer on Iowa over anyone else.

Her result is still within a standard margin of error, making them effectively tied. But if true, that is a huge swing. Iowa should not be in play if Trump is winning.

Also I'm still reviewing details of the poll but the most interesting result: it has women 65+ voting Harris 2-1. That's a huge deal because that's a very reliable voting bloc-- older people vote at high rates and older women vote more reliably than men.

Yes. Older women are super super pissed. They don’t want people messing around with reproductive rights and they remember pre-roe and many have a lot of sad stories. Not so much back alley abortions, but misguided marriages and lost career opportunities.

Plus they don’t want the gop cratering social security and Medicare. The media has not given this much attention, but it has been a consistent plot line from the gop to get rid of those entitlements and older women are sensitive about the issue.

Some other analysis I've seen mentions that while young voters may have no memory of Trump's "grab 'em by the pussy," older women do remember. They are also more likely to accurately remember that Trump's economy was inherited from Obama and how badly Trump screwed up Covid response, stuff that many voters appear to have randomly forgotten or never knew. But it all undercuts Trump's argument to voters that they were "better off" when he was president.

Young female voters only now catching up on the Access Hollywood "grab them by the pussy" posts and videos are going viral on social media. They are only now hearing about it for the first time and are horrified.

+1 there are tiktok videos of young women watching the video of Trump, and making comments about it. You can guess what kind of comments they are making.

Some of the comments go something like this: "wtf.. how could these adults have voted for him after this tape came out?'

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think she’s going to win Iowa but the people automatically discounting this don’t know anything about polls. Selzer is worshipped by the people who do. Keep in mind - go back a few pages - this makes sense when Trump is only up in Kansas by 5, Harris is up by 12 in the 2nd congressional district and down by only 4 in the 1st, and a Miami University poll of Ohio has him up there by only 3.

Me again, clarifying that the 1st and 2nd congressional districts refer to Nebraska, and “go back a few pages” means in the giant polling thread before Selzer’s nuclear detonation there.

[Anonymous]

Poll is trash. It didn’t even reveal the cross tabs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Even if Harris wins, Dems lose senate.

Nothing is getting done.

If it keeps trump out of the white house - I’m ok with that

+1000

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

In 2016 she predicted T+7 or similar when all other polls had Clinton a little ahead for Iowa. The democrats dismissed her as an outlier. She was right.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have a lot of connections to Iowa and a great fondness for that state. The people there are a lot smarter and more thoughtful than many coastal types sometimes seem to think.

I want to believe. 🤞

Sure, but they are not going to deliver the state to Kamala Harris.

That's not the point.

If Harris is polling this well in an A+ poll ( not the junk GOP polls), it bodes well for her prospects in WI, MI, and PA.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Poll is trash. It didn’t even reveal the cross tabs.

Trump can complain about the poll all he wants. The proof will be what happens on Tuesday. Selzer has been incredibly reliable and there’s really no reason to doubt she will continue to be this year

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

DP-if you had any semblance of objectivity this might be a conversation worth having. Talk about partisan.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

DP-if you had any semblance of objectivity this might be a conversation worth having. Talk about partisan.

I don't like what I am seeing here so lemme make up a conspiracy

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Poll is trash. It didn’t even reveal the cross tabs.

Wait, this internal poll has Trump +5 in IA?

Do you understand how bad that is for him nationally?

[Anonymous]

Fabrizio talking about 2020 as if:

(a) we didn't all watch on live TV as Trump's yahoos tried to take the capitol using force after that election, and

(b) Trump's hand-picked judges didn't overturn a fundamental right for women that had been secured in 1973 specifically to keep women from dying (as has started happening again).

We'll see what happens on Tuesday, but it's a different election than it was 4 years ago.