Hurricane Milton

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The longer it takes to make landfall the better as it avoids the hightide of 2p and the stronger the odds are the cold front/shear impacts the hurricane to diminish its strength. The more north it hits, the better for Tampa and the more southern, the more surge for them. I don't know that it really matters where it hits however in that there will definitely be a surge there and the N is where Helene had made more impact so for them it's a bit more sad it's 2x hurricane.

I have a feeling it will not be as bad I don't know why. I've had a feeling since yesterday that the shear and cold front will quickly diminish this from a cat 4 to a 2 or even 1 because shear completely destroys the rotating force of a hurricane. It doesn't wipe out surge but the lowering of the winds will do a lot to help things. I just get a feeling that it won't be as bad as everyone thinks it will be and I also have a feeling that Tampa will get lucky again in not being hit directly by this. I just think that it peaked last night as a cat 5 with 899. The rest of the way up it will meet a lot of factors that isn't helping it maintain/grow.

Phew! Cancel the evacuation, everyone! No need to take any precautions, anonymous PP has a feeling!

Idiot.

I mean, PP may be correct, meteorologists aren't really saying these possibilities out loud because they want everyone to get out of there in case worst case scenario DOES materialize. It's better to prep for the worst case and be grateful if it ends up not being as bad, but people are stupid. Tampa has had a lot of near misses and it takes effort to get some residents to evacuate if they've managed fine thorugh previous storms.

This morning's forecast has indicated a shift to the south and the storm surge forecast in the Tampa area has been downgraded slightly (still bad, but not as bad). Detailed NWS forecast calls for "tropical storm conditions, with hurricane conditions possible" in Tampa, vs. "hurricane conditions expected" in Bradenton/Sarasota. The storm is still relatively small in size so that slight shift in track makes a huge difference.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My SIL also plans to cook all day today, which I don't understand since they'll most certainly lose power. Unless she's baking bread and brownies (I think she's making stews, etc)

My sister has a generator

Generators don't do much if you don't have access to gas. Plus after a hurricane you need to be able to run them for a long period of time. Reports are that the area is already out of gas. That means trucks need to make it back down there to refill the lines, assuming they are able to do so in a timely fashion and that the gas stations themself are not damaged.

People who live in hurricane prone areas, who have generators, actually "prep" for hurricanes fairly well. They keep some gas on hand (outdoors in a shed, detached from the property) and likely fill up some more if they have an inkling a storm is on its way. They aren't rushing out now to get gas, because they know that gas will run low.

The people running out now to get gas to evacuate aren't generally the ones who "prepped" for the emergency.

DH and I have lived in Florida for 40 years. We have one of those built-in generac generators. It powers the entire house and runs on natural gas. It is set up on a permanent platform in our yard.

You're smart, PP. After this storm, I am going to talk with my widowed mom and my brother about possibly getting one for her house, and some hurricane shutters also. She's older, I'm getting older (I live nearby and will be riding it out at her house, I won't leave her alone) and it would probably be for the best to be better prepped.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Because we the tax payers have some game in how much of our money funds stupid people who have to live in places where they really shouldn't.

And to that PP who talks about their ILS not being bothered by the hurricanes.. it's a matter of time before they will be. It's 100% a risk living by the coast. It's a scientific truth. It's called arrogance to ignore it.

I am that PP. I really wanted them to evacuate when they expanded the mandatory evacuation zone to include their house (usually they are too far to be included in the mandatory evacuation zone). If they ran into trouble, they would be putting rescuers into harms' way to come to them. But they evaluated their risk, made their decision, and they were not wrong. That is what everyone does, in every situation, whether it's hurricanes or storm surge, mudslides, wildfires, flash flooding, tornadoes, fault zones, etc. You evaluate your risk, make your decision. It will either turn out to be a good one, or it won't.

I think some (or is it one repeat poster?) people on here absolutely hate Florida and all Floridians and just loves to bash. I don't know a single person who is "arrogant" about hurricanes and isn't getting prepared. We're barely in the cone and still have our supplies, got our sandbags. Everyone is getting ready, gearing up for the worst and praying for the best. Evacuations in Florida are highly complicated: in this case we can only go north. That can take over a day of travel with gas uncertainty for some, is very hard with pets as well, and even more complicated for low income people. All the evacuation zones are evacuating. After that, it's a case by case basis.

The PP literally just said that their ILs lived in an evacuation zone but are not evacuating. I have little sympathy for people who are capable of evacuating but don't follow the orders. TBH, those who *can't* evacuate for XYZ reasons need to seriously consider moving further inland. I'd fully support government funded relocation services to help needy people move to safer areas.

I just read an article about people who were too stubborn to evacuate or felt like “the warnings were for nothing last time…” Many drowned.

So these people thought there was no point to evacuating because they didn’t die “last time.” SMH

And they will be crying when the Red Cross is not there two hours after the storm passes — if they survive at all.

I can’t believe mobile home are allowed to be built. We have known since Andrew, if not before, they will be pulverized in a storm.

Agreed. Completely irresponsible.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My SIL also plans to cook all day today, which I don't understand since they'll most certainly lose power. Unless she's baking bread and brownies (I think she's making stews, etc)

My sister has a generator

Also cooking your food is to try to make it into something you can use if the power goes out. And it's also a stress response. Think how many people baked bread and made soup during COVID.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:where is the evacuation zone? Just tampa proper? How far inland?

hmm, I wonder if there's like a website that shows this?

I also can't find it.

https://www.floridadisaster.org/knowyourzone/

just google "what is my evacuation zone" and it will come up

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My SIL also plans to cook all day today, which I don't understand since they'll most certainly lose power. Unless she's baking bread and brownies (I think she's making stews, etc)

My sister has a generator

Generators don't do much if you don't have access to gas. Plus after a hurricane you need to be able to run them for a long period of time. Reports are that the area is already out of gas. That means trucks need to make it back down there to refill the lines, assuming they are able to do so in a timely fashion and that the gas stations themself are not damaged.

DP. Yes, that's known. Why are you arguing with someone on the internet about their sibling's generator? They will have checked it to see that it is in good working order, have several days-worth of fuel on hand, have water supplies, etc. Or they haven't.

No one is arguing. Feel free to move on. None of the information posted was incorrect.

It's not incorrect but it's not helpful. No, you can't use a generator forever. Did anyone say you could? But you can use it for a few days - until either the power is back on, or you have a plsn for where to relocate to until your power and water will be back.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I was just watching the news and am kind of shocked they aren’t using both sides of the highway to get people out.

In Tidewater, they make both sides of I-64 outbound and out down gates on the entrance ramps. If you want to go inbound, you have to use local roads. The highway is an evacuation route.

The emergency management people addressed this and said they open up the shoulders in evacuation situations but keep the opposing lanes open for responders to be able to access the city. They brought in a lot of people in advance of this storm to stage them for when they’re needed. They turned one of the sports arenas into a modified dorm for people coming in to assist.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

OP here.

Milton has stayed remarkably intense, small and organized category 5 hurricane so far, with an incredibly small pinwheel eye and historically low barometric pressure (didn't go under 900mb last night, however, but did stints below 910mb, which is still record-breaking).

That may be starting to change with this eyewall replacement, currently underway. The predicted weakening, due to wind shear and dry air, is not perceptible yet, and we may not have as much weakening as we thought a few days ago. This also means Milton might stay smaller in size. Pros and cons to both scenarios: a small and powerful storm will kill and destroy everything in its path, but the path will be narrow. A large, less powerful storm will affect a larger area and create billions in damages, as well as threaten more lives with inland flooding.

There is still uncertainty as to track and time of landfall, but the surge damage is already locked in, due to Milton's churning of Gulf water for the past two days. There are multiple supercells forward of Milton, and there may be a tornado outbreak across southern Florida later today and into the night.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:where is the evacuation zone? Just tampa proper? How far inland?

hmm, I wonder if there's like a website that shows this?

I also can't find it.

Google your county name and the words evacuation zones.

I found our family's property in Zone A for Manatee County right away.

+1 We have family in Seminole and I had never looked this up before but that’s how I found it. Here’s Tampa (Hillsborough County) https://hcfl.gov/residents/public-safety/emergency-management/find-evacuation-information and St. Pete (Pinellas County) https://kyz.pinellas.gov/

[Anonymous]

OP here.

Milton was supposed to weaken considerably today, especially with the current eye replacement, dry air and wind shear it faces, but has not yet done so to any significant extent. On the other hand, it is growing steadily larger. The later it weakens, the worse the surge wherever landfalls happens to be.

Furthermore, numerous tornadoes are predicted to touch ground ahead of Milton's landfall, reminiscent of midwest late spring Tornado Alley.

We are entering a worst case scenario for western-southwestern Florida.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

OP here.

Milton has stayed remarkably intense, small and organized category 5 hurricane so far, with an incredibly small pinwheel eye and historically low barometric pressure (didn't go under 900mb last night, however, but did stints below 910mb, which is still record-breaking).

That may be starting to change with this eyewall replacement, currently underway. The predicted weakening, due to wind shear and dry air, is not perceptible yet, and we may not have as much weakening as we thought a few days ago. This also means Milton might stay smaller in size. Pros and cons to both scenarios: a small and powerful storm will kill and destroy everything in its path, but the path will be narrow. A large, less powerful storm will affect a larger area and create billions in damages, as well as threaten more lives with inland flooding.

There is still uncertainty as to track and time of landfall, but the surge damage is already locked in, due to Milton's churning of Gulf water for the past two days. There are multiple supercells forward of Milton, and there may be a tornado outbreak across southern Florida later today and into the night.

This is terrifying.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My SIL also plans to cook all day today, which I don't understand since they'll most certainly lose power. Unless she's baking bread and brownies (I think she's making stews, etc)

My sister has a generator

Generators don't do much if you don't have access to gas. Plus after a hurricane you need to be able to run them for a long period of time. Reports are that the area is already out of gas. That means trucks need to make it back down there to refill the lines, assuming they are able to do so in a timely fashion and that the gas stations themself are not damaged.

People who live in hurricane prone areas, who have generators, actually "prep" for hurricanes fairly well. They keep some gas on hand (outdoors in a shed, detached from the property) and likely fill up some more if they have an inkling a storm is on its way. They aren't rushing out now to get gas, because they know that gas will run low.

The people running out now to get gas to evacuuate aren't generally the ones who "prepped" for the emergency.

Most people don't have the space or sheds to store enough gas to make it through outages more than a day. There are some people who try to store a gas tank farm on their property but no sensible person wants them as neighbors. Most people with generators didn't have enough gas to get them through Helene's outages. People do scramble around trying to secure gas right up until the last minute. You have to keep checking.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My SIL also plans to cook all day today, which I don't understand since they'll most certainly lose power. Unless she's baking bread and brownies (I think she's making stews, etc)

My sister has a generator

Generators don't do much if you don't have access to gas. Plus after a hurricane you need to be able to run them for a long period of time. Reports are that the area is already out of gas. That means trucks need to make it back down there to refill the lines, assuming they are able to do so in a timely fashion and that the gas stations themself are not damaged.

Where is a generator going to rest in 3 feet or more of water?

This is the dumbest post in this thread. You actually think that all the people with power outages related to a hurricane experience floods?

[Anonymous]

I feel sad for the people of FL. Have they even recovered from the last hurricane yet? The news hasn't covered much at all. I have no idea if people are still out of power.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

OP here.

Milton has stayed remarkably intense, small and organized category 5 hurricane so far, with an incredibly small pinwheel eye and historically low barometric pressure (didn't go under 900mb last night, however, but did stints below 910mb, which is still record-breaking).

That may be starting to change with this eyewall replacement, currently underway. The predicted weakening, due to wind shear and dry air, is not perceptible yet, and we may not have as much weakening as we thought a few days ago. This also means Milton might stay smaller in size. Pros and cons to both scenarios: a small and powerful storm will kill and destroy everything in its path, but the path will be narrow. A large, less powerful storm will affect a larger area and create billions in damages, as well as threaten more lives with inland flooding.

There is still uncertainty as to track and time of landfall, but the surge damage is already locked in, due to Milton's churning of Gulf water for the past two days. There are multiple supercells forward of Milton, and there may be a tornado outbreak across southern Florida later today and into the night.

This is terrifying.

OP here. Whoever reposted that was very misleading. Milton peaked at that stage two days ago, but now it is currently a category 4 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds not exceeding 145mph. It's very bad already. Let's not disseminate outdated info.