Hurricane Milton

[Anonymous]

I think we need a new thread now that Milton will soon reach category 5 status and is threatening densely populated central Florida.

Here's the National Hurricane discussion on Monday morning:
"Milton's remarkable rapid intensification is continuing. Satellite
images show a small eye within the very cold central cloud cover,
and the eye is becoming better defined. Data from the Mexican
radar at Sabancuy show a small, closed eye with an intense eyewall
presentation. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier reported a peak
flight-level wind of 146 kt, and dropsonde data show that the
pressure has fallen to around 933 mb, which is down about 22 mb in
4 hours. The initial wind speed is set to 135 kt, which is an
80-kt increase in 24 hours (only eclipsed by Wilma 2005 and Felix
2007 in our records)."

Tracking will probably change over the next couple of days. But the track today shows a worst case scenario where it makes landfall in Tampa Bay, which cannot cope with that type of surge:

[Anonymous]

Praying for our condo in Punta Gorda

[Anonymous]

But you know, living in FL by the coasts...it's a matter of time. I just simple don't get people who live where you KNOW there are hurricanes coming every damn year. It's really rolling the dice and hoping for the best EVERY damn year.

Same in CA - You KNOW there is an earthquake coming. Or, you KNOW there are wildfires and if you live in an area where it's all wooded and there's a drought and it's that hot and this is happening everywhere around you..hmmm..wonder what will happen to me???!

OF COURSE, there is no 100% safe place to live but I'm just saying, if every year, you find these disasters happening v. once every 5 years, that's a different story but these days??

Even to a degree moving to the mountains. Nobody could have I supposed predicted Helene in W NC but if you live in the mountains, it's not exactly the safest place to live. Just saying - I would never move to remote towns in the mountains to live and not understand that I'm taking some risks whenever there's weather. Us humans are pretty fragile beings. We are totally at the mercy of nature.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Praying for our condo in Punta Gorda

Rather than the thousands of people in danger?

Well, that tracks with the kind of people who would have a condo in Punta Gorda.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Praying for our condo in Punta Gorda

my god

[Anonymous]

I hope 🙏 it passes.

[Anonymous]

OP here again. Milton is now a category 5 hurricane.

Recently, models have become much better at predicting rapid intensification of hurricanes (a feature born of global warming). Milton's rapid intensification was predicted, but it intensified even more quickly than ever thought possible: from tropical storm to cat 5 in 24hours.

Milton is expected to "weaken" - that is, lower its sustained maximum wind speed near the eye. That does not make it functionally weaker, though, because decreasing the wind speed comes with a widening of the wind field (ie, the size of the hurricane), which increases the amount of damage on the ground.

Also, the fact that it is now a very powerful hurricane means that damage is being initiated as we speak: water surge is moving towards the Florida coast. Even if Milton lands as a downgraded cat 3, the surge will be more significant than if it had never developed beyond cat 3 winds. Past development matters when it comes to predicting hurricane damage.

[Anonymous]

For posterity, a record of the reconnaissance flight that just ended into the eye of Milton, with the barometric pressure cratering at an unbelievably rapid pace. Those pilots must have had an incredibly bumpy ride. Recon flights are always done for hurricanes, but this particular one was particularly thorough and brought in what turns out to be historic data.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:But you know, living in FL by the coasts...it's a matter of time. I just simple don't get people who live where you KNOW there are hurricanes coming every damn year. It's really rolling the dice and hoping for the best EVERY damn year.

Same in CA - You KNOW there is an earthquake coming. Or, you KNOW there are wildfires and if you live in an area where it's all wooded and there's a drought and it's that hot and this is happening everywhere around you..hmmm..wonder what will happen to me???!

OF COURSE, there is no 100% safe place to live but I'm just saying, if every year, you find these disasters happening v. once every 5 years, that's a different story but these days??

Even to a degree moving to the mountains. Nobody could have I supposed predicted Helene in W NC but if you live in the mountains, it's not exactly the safest place to live. Just saying - I would never move to remote towns in the mountains to live and not understand that I'm taking some risks whenever there's weather. Us humans are pretty fragile beings. We are totally at the mercy of nature.

Just saying, every place has its risk, from weather to attack to dying on an icy road.

Overall hurricanes are quite manageable and I’m no Florida fan.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:But you know, living in FL by the coasts...it's a matter of time. I just simple don't get people who live where you KNOW there are hurricanes coming every damn year. It's really rolling the dice and hoping for the best EVERY damn year.

Same in CA - You KNOW there is an earthquake coming. Or, you KNOW there are wildfires and if you live in an area where it's all wooded and there's a drought and it's that hot and this is happening everywhere around you..hmmm..wonder what will happen to me???!

OF COURSE, there is no 100% safe place to live but I'm just saying, if every year, you find these disasters happening v. once every 5 years, that's a different story but these days??

Even to a degree moving to the mountains. Nobody could have I supposed predicted Helene in W NC but if you live in the mountains, it's not exactly the safest place to live. Just saying - I would never move to remote towns in the mountains to live and not understand that I'm taking some risks whenever there's weather. Us humans are pretty fragile beings. We are totally at the mercy of nature.

Just saying, every place has its risk, from weather to attack to dying on an icy road.

Overall hurricanes are quite manageable and I’m no Florida fan.

It’s just that your comments are completely tone deaf considering the Tampa/St Pete area was just hit by Helene not even close to recovered and they’re about to get slammed with record-breaking storm surge from one of the most rapidly intensifying hurricanes in history.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:But you know, living in FL by the coasts...it's a matter of time. I just simple don't get people who live where you KNOW there are hurricanes coming every damn year. It's really rolling the dice and hoping for the best EVERY damn year.

Same in CA - You KNOW there is an earthquake coming. Or, you KNOW there are wildfires and if you live in an area where it's all wooded and there's a drought and it's that hot and this is happening everywhere around you..hmmm..wonder what will happen to me???!

OF COURSE, there is no 100% safe place to live but I'm just saying, if every year, you find these disasters happening v. once every 5 years, that's a different story but these days??

Even to a degree moving to the mountains. Nobody could have I supposed predicted Helene in W NC but if you live in the mountains, it's not exactly the safest place to live. Just saying - I would never move to remote towns in the mountains to live and not understand that I'm taking some risks whenever there's weather. Us humans are pretty fragile beings. We are totally at the mercy of nature.

Just saying, every place has its risk, from weather to attack to dying on an icy road.

Overall hurricanes are quite manageable and I’m no Florida fan.

It’s just that your comments are completely tone deaf considering the Tampa/St Pete area was just hit by Helene not even close to recovered and they’re about to get slammed with record-breaking storm surge from one of the most rapidly intensifying hurricanes in history.

Not PP but not really. I grew up in Tampa and my parents have been there 40 years, in a flood zone. They, like many of their neighbors and friends, have never had a flood or storm damage until Helene. Of course they're on edge right now and questioning their desire to remain living there as hurricane seasons continue to get worse, but it's very easy to understand why people would live there and generally take the gamble with hurricanes. You get plenty of warning and most aren't major storms.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:But you know, living in FL by the coasts...it's a matter of time. I just simple don't get people who live where you KNOW there are hurricanes coming every damn year. It's really rolling the dice and hoping for the best EVERY damn year.

Same in CA - You KNOW there is an earthquake coming. Or, you KNOW there are wildfires and if you live in an area where it's all wooded and there's a drought and it's that hot and this is happening everywhere around you..hmmm..wonder what will happen to me???!

OF COURSE, there is no 100% safe place to live but I'm just saying, if every year, you find these disasters happening v. once every 5 years, that's a different story but these days??

Even to a degree moving to the mountains. Nobody could have I supposed predicted Helene in W NC but if you live in the mountains, it's not exactly the safest place to live. Just saying - I would never move to remote towns in the mountains to live and not understand that I'm taking some risks whenever there's weather. Us humans are pretty fragile beings. We are totally at the mercy of nature.

I've been in Florida for nearly 20 years and never had hurricane damage. Our closest call was Irma. We can't forget hurricanes are coming because we prep for them nearly every year. Nobody is playing clueless here. It's a very grave situation and we are aware of it and live with the risk.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:But you know, living in FL by the coasts...it's a matter of time. I just simple don't get people who live where you KNOW there are hurricanes coming every damn year. It's really rolling the dice and hoping for the best EVERY damn year.

Same in CA - You KNOW there is an earthquake coming. Or, you KNOW there are wildfires and if you live in an area where it's all wooded and there's a drought and it's that hot and this is happening everywhere around you..hmmm..wonder what will happen to me???!

OF COURSE, there is no 100% safe place to live but I'm just saying, if every year, you find these disasters happening v. once every 5 years, that's a different story but these days??

Even to a degree moving to the mountains. Nobody could have I supposed predicted Helene in W NC but if you live in the mountains, it's not exactly the safest place to live. Just saying - I would never move to remote towns in the mountains to live and not understand that I'm taking some risks whenever there's weather. Us humans are pretty fragile beings. We are totally at the mercy of nature.

Just saying, every place has its risk, from weather to attack to dying on an icy road.

Overall hurricanes are quite manageable and I’m no Florida fan.

It’s just that your comments are completely tone deaf considering the Tampa/St Pete area was just hit by Helene not even close to recovered and they’re about to get slammed with record-breaking storm surge from one of the most rapidly intensifying hurricanes in history.

Not PP but not really. I grew up in Tampa and my parents have been there 40 years, in a flood zone. They, like many of their neighbors and friends, have never had a flood or storm damage until Helene. Of course they're on edge right now and questioning their desire to remain living there as hurricane seasons continue to get worse, but it's very easy to understand why people would live there and generally take the gamble with hurricanes. You get plenty of warning and most aren't major storms.

+1

My ILs live in Florida very near the coast and are totally unbothered by anything less than Cat 4. They were in the evacuation zone for Helene, chose to stay, and had no flooding or damage aside from losing power for a couple days.

A "big one" is rare and even then is rarely truly devastating. Helene was not really devastating for Florida, it was so much worse inland (North Carolina!).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:But you know, living in FL by the coasts...it's a matter of time. I just simple don't get people who live where you KNOW there are hurricanes coming every damn year. It's really rolling the dice and hoping for the best EVERY damn year.

Same in CA - You KNOW there is an earthquake coming. Or, you KNOW there are wildfires and if you live in an area where it's all wooded and there's a drought and it's that hot and this is happening everywhere around you..hmmm..wonder what will happen to me???!

OF COURSE, there is no 100% safe place to live but I'm just saying, if every year, you find these disasters happening v. once every 5 years, that's a different story but these days??

Even to a degree moving to the mountains. Nobody could have I supposed predicted Helene in W NC but if you live in the mountains, it's not exactly the safest place to live. Just saying - I would never move to remote towns in the mountains to live and not understand that I'm taking some risks whenever there's weather. Us humans are pretty fragile beings. We are totally at the mercy of nature.

Just saying, every place has its risk, from weather to attack to dying on an icy road.

Overall hurricanes are quite manageable and I’m no Florida fan.

It’s just that your comments are completely tone deaf considering the Tampa/St Pete area was just hit by Helene not even close to recovered and they’re about to get slammed with record-breaking storm surge from one of the most rapidly intensifying hurricanes in history.

Not PP but not really. I grew up in Tampa and my parents have been there 40 years, in a flood zone. They, like many of their neighbors and friends, have never had a flood or storm damage until Helene. Of course they're on edge right now and questioning their desire to remain living there as hurricane seasons continue to get worse, but it's very easy to understand why people would live there and generally take the gamble with hurricanes. You get plenty of warning and most aren't major storms.

+1

My ILs live in Florida very near the coast and are totally unbothered by anything less than Cat 4. They were in the evacuation zone for Helene, chose to stay, and had no flooding or damage aside from losing power for a couple days.

A "big one" is rare and even then is rarely truly devastating. Helene was not really devastating for Florida, it was so much worse inland (North Carolina!).

OK! Well thanks for giving the rest of us some guidance. We freak out nationally because we know we're going to get pulled in on the news, FEMA, red cross, etc. But if you don't care, we can stop caring. What a load off.

[Anonymous]