Hurricane Milton

[Anonymous]

OP here.

Milton joins the very short list of Gulf hurricanes with a barometric reading below 900mb at peak intensity. We have 899mb tonight, and it could possibly even go lower than that. Recon plane is in there now taking readings. Barometric pressure is a better measure of storm intensity than wind speed.

[Anonymous]

For those with interests in the areas of concern, please note the current forecast:

[Anonymous]

Can someone explain storm surge? Like if it’s 3 feet, how far inland?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Can someone explain storm surge? Like if it’s 3 feet, how far inland?

You can estimate from the map. That's just storm surge from the sea. Not flooding from creeks, streams and rivers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can someone explain storm surge? Like if it’s 3 feet, how far inland?

You can estimate from the map. That's just storm surge from the sea. Not flooding from creeks, streams and rivers.

So are you saying that if it says 3 foot storm surge and it’s colored in your area you can have 3 feet of water on the ground where you are?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can someone explain storm surge? Like if it’s 3 feet, how far inland?

You can estimate from the map. That's just storm surge from the sea. Not flooding from creeks, streams and rivers.

So are you saying that if it says 3 foot storm surge and it’s colored in your area you can have 3 feet of water on the ground where you are?

DP. Even more at high tide. Further inland, it will mostly affect low lying areas. And you don’t have to be right next to a creek or river, it will come right up out of the storm drain.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My son lives in Tampa and he told me that they are keeping the dumps open 24/7 in preparation for Milton and that trash trucks are convoying with police escorts to try to get as much trash from Helene into the landfills as possible before the storm.

Is your son evacuating?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My son lives in Tampa and he told me that they are keeping the dumps open 24/7 in preparation for Milton and that trash trucks are convoying with police escorts to try to get as much trash from Helene into the landfills as possible before the storm.

Is your son evacuating?

I'm not this poster, but the majority of people in Tampa are not in evacuation zone. I just finished my commute home from Tampa to Hernando county, and there was a lot of traffic heading north but it wasn't anything more than a typical volume, except it was later in the evening than usual.

[Anonymous]

I just saw a clip of a Florida meteorologist on air getting choked up when announcing the rapid intensification to Cat 5.

A few years ago I saw a piece on national news during another hurricane which detailed what would happen to Tampa Bay if it got a direct hit like it is now facing from Milton. The modeling was horrifying. I really hope residents are evacuating.

I don’t have much in common with many Floridians but I’m sincerely praying for them. Same for all the people devastated by Helene. This is the new norm of AGW/CC and it is not a good show.

[Anonymous]

https://apnews.com/article/hurricane-milton-tampa-bay-ace324900762a0e3c385830f3cf1479b

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Because we the tax payers have some game in how much of our money funds stupid people who have to live in places where they really shouldn't.

And to that PP who talks about their ILS not being bothered by the hurricanes.. it's a matter of time before they will be. It's 100% a risk living by the coast. It's a scientific truth. It's called arrogance to ignore it.

I am that PP. I really wanted them to evacuate when they expanded the mandatory evacuation zone to include their house (usually they are too far to be included in the mandatory evacuation zone). If they ran into trouble, they would be putting rescuers into harms' way to come to them. But they evaluated their risk, made their decision, and they were not wrong. That is what everyone does, in every situation, whether it's hurricanes or storm surge, mudslides, wildfires, flash flooding, tornadoes, fault zones, etc. You evaluate your risk, make your decision. It will either turn out to be a good one, or it won't.

I think some (or is it one repeat poster?) people on here absolutely hate Florida and all Floridians and just loves to bash. I don't know a single person who is "arrogant" about hurricanes and isn't getting prepared. We're barely in the cone and still have our supplies, got our sandbags. Everyone is getting ready, gearing up for the worst and praying for the best. Evacuations in Florida are highly complicated: in this case we can only go north. That can take over a day of travel with gas uncertainty for some, is very hard with pets as well, and even more complicated for low income people. All the evacuation zones are evacuating. After that, it's a case by case basis.

The PP literally just said that their ILs lived in an evacuation zone but are not evacuating. I have little sympathy for people who are capable of evacuating but don't follow the orders. TBH, those who *can't* evacuate for XYZ reasons need to seriously consider moving further inland. I'd fully support government funded relocation services to help needy people move to safer areas.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Praying for our condo in Punta Gorda

Rather than the thousands of people in danger?

Well, that tracks with the kind of people who would have a condo in Punta Gorda.

I assume they were making a bad joke.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:But you know, living in FL by the coasts...it's a matter of time. I just simple don't get people who live where you KNOW there are hurricanes coming every damn year. It's really rolling the dice and hoping for the best EVERY damn year.

Same in CA - You KNOW there is an earthquake coming. Or, you KNOW there are wildfires and if you live in an area where it's all wooded and there's a drought and it's that hot and this is happening everywhere around you..hmmm..wonder what will happen to me???!

OF COURSE, there is no 100% safe place to live but I'm just saying, if every year, you find these disasters happening v. once every 5 years, that's a different story but these days??

Even to a degree moving to the mountains. Nobody could have I supposed predicted Helene in W NC but if you live in the mountains, it's not exactly the safest place to live. Just saying - I would never move to remote towns in the mountains to live and not understand that I'm taking some risks whenever there's weather. Us humans are pretty fragile beings. We are totally at the mercy of nature.

Just saying, every place has its risk, from weather to attack to dying on an icy road.

Overall hurricanes are quite manageable and I’m no Florida fan.

It’s just that your comments are completely tone deaf considering the Tampa/St Pete area was just hit by Helene not even close to recovered and they’re about to get slammed with record-breaking storm surge from one of the most rapidly intensifying hurricanes in history.

Not PP but not really. I grew up in Tampa and my parents have been there 40 years, in a flood zone. They, like many of their neighbors and friends, have never had a flood or storm damage until Helene. Of course they're on edge right now and questioning their desire to remain living there as hurricane seasons continue to get worse, but it's very easy to understand why people would live there and generally take the gamble with hurricanes. You get plenty of warning and most aren't major storms.

+1

My ILs live in Florida very near the coast and are totally unbothered by anything less than Cat 4. They were in the evacuation zone for Helene, chose to stay, and had no flooding or damage aside from losing power for a couple days.

A "big one" is rare and even then is rarely truly devastating. Helene was not really devastating for Florida, it was so much worse inland (North Carolina!).

What?

Tell that to people in Cedar Key, FL!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Because we the tax payers have some game in how much of our money funds stupid people who have to live in places where they really shouldn't.

And to that PP who talks about their ILS not being bothered by the hurricanes.. it's a matter of time before they will be. It's 100% a risk living by the coast. It's a scientific truth. It's called arrogance to ignore it.

I am that PP. I really wanted them to evacuate when they expanded the mandatory evacuation zone to include their house (usually they are too far to be included in the mandatory evacuation zone). If they ran into trouble, they would be putting rescuers into harms' way to come to them. But they evaluated their risk, made their decision, and they were not wrong. That is what everyone does, in every situation, whether it's hurricanes or storm surge, mudslides, wildfires, flash flooding, tornadoes, fault zones, etc. You evaluate your risk, make your decision. It will either turn out to be a good one, or it won't.

I think some (or is it one repeat poster?) people on here absolutely hate Florida and all Floridians and just loves to bash. I don't know a single person who is "arrogant" about hurricanes and isn't getting prepared. We're barely in the cone and still have our supplies, got our sandbags. Everyone is getting ready, gearing up for the worst and praying for the best. Evacuations in Florida are highly complicated: in this case we can only go north. That can take over a day of travel with gas uncertainty for some, is very hard with pets as well, and even more complicated for low income people. All the evacuation zones are evacuating. After that, it's a case by case basis.

The PP literally just said that their ILs lived in an evacuation zone but are not evacuating. I have little sympathy for people who are capable of evacuating but don't follow the orders. TBH, those who *can't* evacuate for XYZ reasons need to seriously consider moving further inland. I'd fully support government funded relocation services to help needy people move to safer areas.

I just read an article about people who were too stubborn to evacuate or felt like “the warnings were for nothing last time…” Many drowned.

So these people thought there was no point to evacuating because they didn’t die “last time.” SMH

And they will be crying when the Red Cross is not there two hours after the storm passes — if they survive at all.

I can’t believe mobile home are allowed to be built. We have known since Andrew, if not before, they will be pulverized in a storm.

[Anonymous]

OP here again. Overnight, Milton underwent a very efficient eyewall replacement.

Eyewall replacements are a guarantee of weakening, permanently or temporarily. However this one was organized and quick, and even though Milton has gone back to cat 4 status, it is about to cross into very warm waters today, and may strengthen back to a cat 5 again. There is sufficient time between now and landfall for it to continue to intensify and be a historic threat to the Tampa Bay area.

We are hoping for some wind shear and dry air to disrupt Milton so that the worse case scenario doesn't occur. Models are conflicted on this.

Don't forget that surge damage near landfall areas is already baked in no matter what, due to yesterday's category 5 water movement towards the Florida coast. But if we can avoid too much wind damage and additional surge damage with a cat 3 landfall, that would greatly reduce risk to life and property.