2024 Election Thread

[Anonymous]

Keep in mind that polls are comprised of people who pick up their land line when the caller ID says "unknown".

[Anonymous]

Not entirely. Some polls use up to 20 or 30% cell phone lines. But still, considering that the majority of people use cell phones and a minority use land lines, the polling is really inaccurate for likely voters. Many of those who answer land lines will not actually vote in the election. Those that do vote and answer their land lines lean far more conservative than actual demographics of likely voters, so the polling data is extremely skewed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Not entirely. Some polls use up to 20 or 30% cell phone lines. But still, considering that the majority of people use cell phones and a minority use land lines, the polling is really inaccurate for likely voters. Many of those who answer land lines will not actually vote in the election. Those that do vote and answer their land lines lean far more conservative than actual demographics of likely voters, so the polling data is extremely skewed.

Anyone with a brain ignores calls from unknown numbers regardless of landline or mobile.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Not entirely. Some polls use up to 20 or 30% cell phone lines. But still, considering that the majority of people use cell phones and a minority use land lines, the polling is really inaccurate for likely voters. Many of those who answer land lines will not actually vote in the election. Those that do vote and answer their land lines lean far more conservative than actual demographics of likely voters, so the polling data is extremely skewed.

Fascinating how polls are often pretty accurate. Guess you're just in denial.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not entirely. Some polls use up to 20 or 30% cell phone lines. But still, considering that the majority of people use cell phones and a minority use land lines, the polling is really inaccurate for likely voters. Many of those who answer land lines will not actually vote in the election. Those that do vote and answer their land lines lean far more conservative than actual demographics of likely voters, so the polling data is extremely skewed.

Fascinating how polls are often pretty accurate. Guess you're just in denial.

You mean like the red wave of 2022?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not entirely. Some polls use up to 20 or 30% cell phone lines. But still, considering that the majority of people use cell phones and a minority use land lines, the polling is really inaccurate for likely voters. Many of those who answer land lines will not actually vote in the election. Those that do vote and answer their land lines lean far more conservative than actual demographics of likely voters, so the polling data is extremely skewed.

Fascinating how polls are often pretty accurate. Guess you're just in denial.

The polling in Alabama for yesterday's election showed either a 7 point GOP win or a 2 point Dem win. The actual result was a 20+ point Dem win.

Accurate polling, indeed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not entirely. Some polls use up to 20 or 30% cell phone lines. But still, considering that the majority of people use cell phones and a minority use land lines, the polling is really inaccurate for likely voters. Many of those who answer land lines will not actually vote in the election. Those that do vote and answer their land lines lean far more conservative than actual demographics of likely voters, so the polling data is extremely skewed.

Fascinating how polls are often pretty accurate. Guess you're just in denial.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not entirely. Some polls use up to 20 or 30% cell phone lines. But still, considering that the majority of people use cell phones and a minority use land lines, the polling is really inaccurate for likely voters. Many of those who answer land lines will not actually vote in the election. Those that do vote and answer their land lines lean far more conservative than actual demographics of likely voters, so the polling data is extremely skewed.

Anyone with a brain ignores calls from unknown numbers regardless of landline or mobile.

Some of us can't do that. My second job is essentially like an event organizer for a social activity. I get paid for the work, but I often have participants who need to call a POC for various reasons and I am the person who gets listed. These smaller organizations can't really afford to purchase a phone (some of them are still losing money post-pandemic and trying to get back to breaking even on their events), so I use my phone. It's listed on assorted advertising and as a contact for certain types of issues. So, I have to answer calls that are unknown because it may be a participant.

That said, autodialers are pretty easy to flag as there is the pause and/or click after you pick up as it is transferring the call to a person. I can usually identify those and just hang up before the person picks up from the automated dialer.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Pollsters can no longer predict what the sample of actual voters looks like. They make estimates based on past voting behavior, but I think way too many once in a lifetime events have happened in the past decade (pandemic & deaths of lots of older Republican voters, overturn of Roe, Jan 6 coup attempt, etc).

If you can’t accurately predict who will show up to vote, there’s no way for your poll to be accurate.

It wouldn’t surprise me if women outvote men 55-45 in the November elections nationwide. If that’s the margin, then Republicans get absolutely crushed.

Not with the electoral college but maybe with the un important popular vote

If they use this logic in the general, it will become know as Trump's Folly. The MAGA movement has continually discounted the effect that the overturning of RvW and state pushes against family planning is having on their election results. The overturning of RvW, the banning of abortion of in many states, the attack on IVF have all changed election results without having nearly as big of an impact on polls. The polls are deceptive because many people, especially many women and young voters, who normally do not vote, are coming out to vote in record numbers.

Since the fall of RvW, Democrats have won nearly all elections where the abortion and fertility issues have been on the soapbox. From the state constitutional amendments in red Kansas and red Ohio, to the election of Democrats in deep red territory, like Andy Beshear in Kentucky to Marilyn Lands in Alabama. And also the purple areas like Virginia moving blue (both houses of the legistature went from leaning red to leaning blue while governor Glenn Youngkin had abortion restrictions on his platform).

Keep burying your head in the sand, but you will see more purple areas voting blue and more red areas going purple, with mixed statewide results. Family planning issues will be the keystone issue this year, just as it was in 2022 and 2023.

No one is free if they can't plan for their families.

[Anonymous]

This puts Florida and the Senate in Florida, in play, IMO

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This puts Florida and the Senate in Florida, in play, IMO

I live in Florida - and if this is a blue wave year overall, then yeah this could really do something

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This puts Florida and the Senate in Florida, in play, IMO

I live in Florida - and if this is a blue wave year overall, then yeah this could really do something

why do people keep saying this? Florida never does the right THING!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This puts Florida and the Senate in Florida, in play, IMO

I live in Florida - and if this is a blue wave year overall, then yeah this could really do something

why do people keep saying this? Florida never does the right THING!

The FL Dems party is a total cluster F. They lost mayoral seats last week because they canceled the Dem primary. They ran a great campaign for the Special Election in Feb but have screwed up too many times for me to ever give a penny to them.

[Anonymous]

seems promising!

[Anonymous]

The good thing about Alaska...they actually care about clear rivers and water and with oil production at all time highs, the economy there is doing well.

Plus, under Biden, they don't have to worry about being given back to Russia.