DC had largest percentage drop in population in nation
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Anonymous
NOMA wasn't even a thing in 2000... |
Anonymous
| What I find most concerning about the future of D.C. right now is the uncertainty. We're still in the midst of what will be a years-long pandemic. We have no idea what state the world and our nation will be in when the pandemic finally ends. We have no idea how much work and societal patterns will ultimately be altered. Will the new landscape support D.C.'s revitalization -- as well as the revitalization of other urban centers hit hard by the pandemic? Will the new landscape make D.C. and other cities less attractive? Is the population drop a temporary blip or the beginning of a longer-term trend? Honestly, I could see it go either way at this point. |
Anonymous
Understanding the patterns behind the trend helps to understand why things are happening. Demographics are not destiny, but they have played a massive role in DCs population gain and recent population drop. It’s a story about the preferences and choices of this huge cohort of Millennials as they move through different stages of life. And right now their preferences, as they are starting to get married and start families, are to raise their kids in the suburbs or smaller, mid-sized metro areas. While some Millennials are certainly deciding to have families and raise children in DC, not enough are and this is where the short-sightedness of the city promoting turning the city into a playground for 20 something’s over promoting more family friendly development comes into play and unfortunately exacerbates the dynamic and will promote more population losses. |
Anonymous
Your attitude interests me. You know enough to collect data on real estate which also means that you know enough to understand that there are huge geographic and composition differences in price movement. Outside of the Wharf, condos in central zip codes are not appreciating. Nearly all went down in price in 2020 and some recovered those price drops but others have not. On the other hand, single-family detached homes of 3+ bedrooms have seen the biggest price increases, followed by 3+ bedroom single-family attached row houses. I presume you know all of this and yet here you are with the attitude and attempt to mislead people. I guess my only question is why? |
Anonymous
Oh look it’s all doom and gloom. Oh the price went up but ….you just can’t accept that because of your crazy world view. DC is fine. The housing market is great much better vs area outside the beltway. Why do you care? You do not even live in the city? Just stop with your lies. |
Anonymous
First of all, it’s interesting that you presume to know where I live. Secondly, this retort shows a continued childishness which is what I remarked upon. As you say, “the price went up” to wit I ask you to clarify which price and this is your response. In fact, your posting is so ridiculous that reading DC real estate blogs will provide someone with much better information about the status of the market. Whoever you are and whatever you think you’re doing, just be known that it’s sad to want to both purposefully deny nuance and also to spread misinformation. You may think you are serving some higher objective but you’re really not serving anyone but your own apparent fragile ego that is closely tied to any potential adverse information about this city. |
Anonymous
Imgine cashing in your chips in North Arlington or Old Town and setting up shop as Jed Clampett in the panhandle of Florida. LOL. |
Anonymous
Imagine believing that the ultimate and only life experience should be spending 30 years in the rat race struggling to pay off a mortgage on an Arlington 3-BD center hall colonial when you have nice weather, a newer house and a pool at a fraction of the mortgage and with the same salary. People have different priorities and interests than me. People want to work to live and not live to work. LOL! |
Anonymous
I know several near retirees who left the area for houses they built in the panhandle relatively near the gulf coast. They were very excited. |
Anonymous
| lots of coping in this thread |
Anonymous
Prices in Santa Rosa Beach in Florida are quite high. Seems like a lot of people have been relocating there and pushing the prices very high. |
Anonymous
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So many people on this thread are reading way too much into this data. Young educated renters are the most mobile population in the country. During the pandemic, it was easy for them to move home with their parents, which many of them did to save money. Similarly, new graduates took DC jobs without relocating to DC, even though they knew along that they'd be making the move eventually. I can personally think of half a dozen people or more who fit these patterns. But again, these folks are mobile because moving is cheap for them; in nearly all the cases I'm aware of, the person is either already back in DC or is actively planning their return.
Also, anyone who wants to take this seriously should know that the Census Bureau uses a reference date of April 1st, i.e. a date in 2021 before full vaccination of the general population was widespread. It's quite likely that there has already been a reversal of this decline, as indicated by things like rent increases. Again, young renters are mobile. That shift won't show up until next year's numbers. |
Anonymous
You seem to be too caught up into trying to prove that it’s nbd. DC has effectively centered its entire economic strategy around this group that you just said is the “most mobile”. So it is a bad strategy? |
Anonymous
DC has 7 universities and many of the students are taking online classes from other locations outside of the district, and yes, students who live in DC or on campuses in DC count as DC residents. I am certain these numbers will bounce back once campuses are fully back to in person. |
Anonymous
I'm not "caught up" in anything, I just understand statistics because it's my job. I don't think it's a bad strategy for DC at all. Young renters are most mobile in that they have the lowest costs of moving, but they also have some of the strongest incentives to commute to an office for networking and potential social outlets. They're the most likely to leave in a pandemic, but also the most likely to come back afterward. They are more likely to value proximity to the kinds of amenities that DC provides, and they use fewer services in part because they don't have kids. Besides, if a segment of older professionals really is moving far out to get larger yards, DC can't possibly offer that to them no matter what it does, because its size is fixed. It makes more sense for the city to play to its comparative advantage instead, which means catering to young people and DINKs with lots of disposable income. I don't know why any of this is a surprise to anyone. Go read a forum that younger people post on like DC Reddit or one of the larger Instagram accounts, and you'll find plenty of stories of people who left for awhile but are now making their way back. I want to see lower crime and better schools as much as the next person, but it's not the 20-somethings who are making threads about crime and schools, that was never why they moved away, and it won't stop them from returning. |