DC had largest percentage drop in population in nation

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So many people on this thread are reading way too much into this data. Young educated renters are the most mobile population in the country. During the pandemic, it was easy for them to move home with their parents, which many of them did to save money. Similarly, new graduates took DC jobs without relocating to DC, even though they knew along that they'd be making the move eventually. I can personally think of half a dozen people or more who fit these patterns. But again, these folks are mobile because moving is cheap for them; in nearly all the cases I'm aware of, the person is either already back in DC or is actively planning their return.

Also, anyone who wants to take this seriously should know that the Census Bureau uses a reference date of April 1st, i.e. a date in 2021 before full vaccination of the general population was widespread. It's quite likely that there has already been a reversal of this decline, as indicated by things like rent increases. Again, young renters are mobile. That shift won't show up until next year's numbers.

You seem to be too caught up into trying to prove that it’s nbd. DC has effectively centered its entire economic strategy around this group that you just said is the “most mobile”. So it is a bad strategy?

I'm not "caught up" in anything, I just understand statistics because it's my job.

I don't think it's a bad strategy for DC at all. Young renters are most mobile in that they have the lowest costs of moving, but they also have some of the strongest incentives to commute to an office for networking and potential social outlets. They're the most likely to leave in a pandemic, but also the most likely to come back afterward. They are more likely to value proximity to the kinds of amenities that DC provides, and they use fewer services in part because they don't have kids. Besides, if a segment of older professionals really is moving far out to get larger yards, DC can't possibly offer that to them no matter what it does, because its size is fixed. It makes more sense for the city to play to its comparative advantage instead, which means catering to young people and DINKs with lots of disposable income.

I don't know why any of this is a surprise to anyone. Go read a forum that younger people post on like DC Reddit or one of the larger Instagram accounts, and you'll find plenty of stories of people who left for awhile but are now making their way back. I want to see lower crime and better schools as much as the next person, but it's not the 20-somethings who are making threads about crime and schools, that was never why they moved away, and it won't stop them from returning.

Statistics man suggests you are wrong because you aren’t reading Reddit for the anecdata. Since you are using your job to buttress your reputation, I’m going to suggest that are are bad at your job.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So many people on this thread are reading way too much into this data. Young educated renters are the most mobile population in the country. During the pandemic, it was easy for them to move home with their parents, which many of them did to save money. Similarly, new graduates took DC jobs without relocating to DC, even though they knew along that they'd be making the move eventually. I can personally think of half a dozen people or more who fit these patterns. But again, these folks are mobile because moving is cheap for them; in nearly all the cases I'm aware of, the person is either already back in DC or is actively planning their return.

Also, anyone who wants to take this seriously should know that the Census Bureau uses a reference date of April 1st, i.e. a date in 2021 before full vaccination of the general population was widespread. It's quite likely that there has already been a reversal of this decline, as indicated by things like rent increases. Again, young renters are mobile. That shift won't show up until next year's numbers.

You seem to be too caught up into trying to prove that it’s nbd. DC has effectively centered its entire economic strategy around this group that you just said is the “most mobile”. So it is a bad strategy?

I'm not "caught up" in anything, I just understand statistics because it's my job.

I don't think it's a bad strategy for DC at all. Young renters are most mobile in that they have the lowest costs of moving, but they also have some of the strongest incentives to commute to an office for networking and potential social outlets. They're the most likely to leave in a pandemic, but also the most likely to come back afterward. They are more likely to value proximity to the kinds of amenities that DC provides, and they use fewer services in part because they don't have kids. Besides, if a segment of older professionals really is moving far out to get larger yards, DC can't possibly offer that to them no matter what it does, because its size is fixed. It makes more sense for the city to play to its comparative advantage instead, which means catering to young people and DINKs with lots of disposable income.

I don't know why any of this is a surprise to anyone. Go read a forum that younger people post on like DC Reddit or one of the larger Instagram accounts, and you'll find plenty of stories of people who left for awhile but are now making their way back. I want to see lower crime and better schools as much as the next person, but it's not the 20-somethings who are making threads about crime and schools, that was never why they moved away, and it won't stop them from returning.

Statistics man suggests you are wrong because you aren’t reading Reddit for the anecdata. Since you are using your job to buttress your reputation, I’m going to suggest that are are bad at your job.

To be clear, Census annual population estimates don't provide a breakout by age, so there is nothing in those data to either confirm or deny my hypothesis. The American Community Survey estimates for 2021 won't be out for almost a year, so there's probably no data source large and representative enough for you to be able to answer this question right now as it pertains to DC specifically. If you've got a good one, I'd love to hear it.

The national data on geographic mobility do make it pretty clear that it's young people and renters who disproportionately made across-state moves between 2020 and 2021, though:

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2021/demo/geographic-mobility/cps-2021.html

Like I said, if you've got an actual data source that contradicts what I'm saying, I'm all ears. Otherwise, your anecdata are definitely no better than mine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So many people on this thread are reading way too much into this data. Young educated renters are the most mobile population in the country. During the pandemic, it was easy for them to move home with their parents, which many of them did to save money. Similarly, new graduates took DC jobs without relocating to DC, even though they knew along that they'd be making the move eventually. I can personally think of half a dozen people or more who fit these patterns. But again, these folks are mobile because moving is cheap for them; in nearly all the cases I'm aware of, the person is either already back in DC or is actively planning their return.

Also, anyone who wants to take this seriously should know that the Census Bureau uses a reference date of April 1st, i.e. a date in 2021 before full vaccination of the general population was widespread. It's quite likely that there has already been a reversal of this decline, as indicated by things like rent increases. Again, young renters are mobile. That shift won't show up until next year's numbers.

You seem to be too caught up into trying to prove that it’s nbd. DC has effectively centered its entire economic strategy around this group that you just said is the “most mobile”. So it is a bad strategy?

I'm not "caught up" in anything, I just understand statistics because it's my job.

I don't think it's a bad strategy for DC at all. Young renters are most mobile in that they have the lowest costs of moving, but they also have some of the strongest incentives to commute to an office for networking and potential social outlets. They're the most likely to leave in a pandemic, but also the most likely to come back afterward. They are more likely to value proximity to the kinds of amenities that DC provides, and they use fewer services in part because they don't have kids. Besides, if a segment of older professionals really is moving far out to get larger yards, DC can't possibly offer that to them no matter what it does, because its size is fixed. It makes more sense for the city to play to its comparative advantage instead, which means catering to young people and DINKs with lots of disposable income.

I don't know why any of this is a surprise to anyone. Go read a forum that younger people post on like DC Reddit or one of the larger Instagram accounts, and you'll find plenty of stories of people who left for awhile but are now making their way back. I want to see lower crime and better schools as much as the next person, but it's not the 20-somethings who are making threads about crime and schools, that was never why they moved away, and it won't stop them from returning.

Statistics man suggests you are wrong because you aren’t reading Reddit for the anecdata. Since you are using your job to buttress your reputation, I’m going to suggest that are are bad at your job.

To be clear, Census annual population estimates don't provide a breakout by age, so there is nothing in those data to either confirm or deny my hypothesis. The American Community Survey estimates for 2021 won't be out for almost a year, so there's probably no data source large and representative enough for you to be able to answer this question right now as it pertains to DC specifically. If you've got a good one, I'd love to hear it.

The national data on geographic mobility do make it pretty clear that it's young people and renters who disproportionately made across-state moves between 2020 and 2021, though:

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2021/demo/geographic-mobility/cps-2021.html

Like I said, if you've got an actual data source that contradicts what I'm saying, I'm all ears. Otherwise, your anecdata are definitely no better than mine.

You see, the difference is that I’m not trying to make a point to prove or disprove anything. I’m not trying to argue or otherwise massage the data to make some weird point that supports my priors about some other issue and other trying to protect the reputation of DC or whatever. What I’m noting is that 20,000 departures this year followed by the 15,000 departures the previous year will have an impact on revenues. If you read the Washington Post article, the DC CFO has the same concerns.

[Anonymous]

The District reflects a national trend of population loss or very little growth. The overall U.S. population grew by 392,665 in 2021 – just 0.1% – which is the lowest rate since it was founded in 1776. The U.S. Census Bureau attributed the overall slow rate of population growth nationally to decreased net international migration, decreased fertility, and increased mortality as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

https://dcist.com/story/21/12/22/d-c-population/

Lol

[Anonymous]

Southwest Virginia’s population decline was no secret since estimates started coming out in 2011. Now the numbers are official, and the nine-county News Channel 11 viewing area has lost more than 27,000 people since 2010.

The county and city-level figures released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau show an 8.9% population decline across the region.[/quote]

Wow

[Anonymous]

Is there a point to any of this? Honestly I think the PP is a teenager or something, because that seems to be the level of emotional intelligence.

These are interesting facts:

- US population growth is low but still positive.
- SW Virgina suffered significant population loss and a horrible economic conditions.

Are these facts supposed to compare favorably or negatively with DCs declining population growth over the past two years?

[Anonymous]

At many people in DC did not fill out census b/c they were busy, angry, afraid of their immigration status, or remote working somewhere else.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:At many people in DC did not fill out census b/c they were busy, angry, afraid of their immigration status, or remote working somewhere else.

Relevance?

[Anonymous]

Historically, continuous population growth has been important in increasing the District’s income, property, and sales tax bases and has been one of the driving forces behind rising home values.

factors such as changes in population… should also be considered when assessing the overall financial health of the District

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:At many people in DC did not fill out census b/c they were busy, angry, afraid of their immigration status, or remote working somewhere else.

Relevance?

Not the PP, but they are correct that DC's population is especially hard to count right now. The Urban Institute concluded that DC's population was undercounted by over 14k residents in 2020, larger as a % of population than any state.

https://www.washingtonian.com/2021/11/02/nearly-14400-washingtonians-werent-counted-in-the-census-new-report-says/

It's not a big reach to suspect that the Census population change numbers may also be not as reliable as usual in cities like DC. For example, the Census Bureau isn't even releasing a lot of their usual statistics for 2020 because the data aren't good enough.

https://www.rollcall.com/2021/07/29/census-wont-release-key-annual-survey-because-of-pandemics-impact-on-data/

Without knowing how this particular sausage is made, it's not unreasonable to be cautious about interpreting these numbers also.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:At many people in DC did not fill out census b/c they were busy, angry, afraid of their immigration status, or remote working somewhere else.

Relevance?

Not the PP, but they are correct that DC's population is especially hard to count right now. The Urban Institute concluded that DC's population was undercounted by over 14k residents in 2020, larger as a % of population than any state.

https://www.washingtonian.com/2021/11/02/nearly-14400-washingtonians-werent-counted-in-the-census-new-report-says/

It's not a big reach to suspect that the Census population change numbers may also be not as reliable as usual in cities like DC. For example, the Census Bureau isn't even releasing a lot of their usual statistics for 2020 because the data aren't good enough.

https://www.rollcall.com/2021/07/29/census-wont-release-key-annual-survey-because-of-pandemics-impact-on-data/

Without knowing how this particular sausage is made, it's not unreasonable to be cautious about interpreting these numbers also.

First of all, I do enjoy this kabuki dance where DC demands to be treated equivalent to a state, but then should not be compared to states when data is bad but still compared to states when people want to create favorable comparisons.

Second, this is honestly a losers game to try to debunk official government statistics. However, to be clear, regardless of whether or not the total number of people is accurate, what is currently being measured is changes in population. These are two different things and the directional shift is very clear and was evident pre-Covid. The DC government itself estimates that population growth for the five years from 2015-2020 declined from the first five years of the decade and averaged a measly 0.6%. The DC government itself estimates that in 2020 they permanently lost over 9,000 net residents. The official Federal government statistics are that the population loss in 2020 was approximately 15,000 and in 2020 it was 20,000.

Argue what the “true” numbers are all you want but the direction is clear and undisputed.

[Anonymous]

Increasing crime and lawlessness
Closed schools
Businesses shut down
Remote work increasing

Gosh why would people leave DC??

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Increasing crime and lawlessness
Closed schools
Businesses shut down
Remote work increasing

Gosh why would people leave DC??

This is what so many here are trying to avoid discussing. The key thing here is that people are voting with their feet.

High costs of living, poor services, poor/closed schools, toxic political ideology that views every issue through identity, high taxes, rising crime without an adequate response... at some point people just leave.

This has happened before and can happen again.

[Anonymous]

You're all of bunch of pearl clutching Karens. DC doesn't need you anyway.

[Anonymous]

Your tax base is fleeing