The Pandemic Hit Cities Hard And Then There's Washington, DC

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The underlying issue is that office and hotel uses took a huge hit during covid, and that is what makes up downtown DC. We don’t have a huge residential or industrial base like many cities.

It’s THIS. I assume the DC cheerleaders haven’t lived in a city like NY or LA so they aren’t able to recognize the difference.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The underlying issue is that office and hotel uses took a huge hit during covid, and that is what makes up downtown DC. We don’t have a huge residential or industrial base like many cities.

It’s THIS. I assume the DC cheerleaders haven’t lived in a city like NY or LA so they aren’t able to recognize the difference.

No one is saying that DC is NY or LA. I've lived in NY and DC. (By the way, I much prefer DC). That's a false premise.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The underlying issue is that office and hotel uses took a huge hit during covid, and that is what makes up downtown DC. We don’t have a huge residential or industrial base like many cities.

It’s THIS. I assume the DC cheerleaders haven’t lived in a city like NY or LA so they aren’t able to recognize the difference.

No one is saying that DC is NY or LA. I've lived in NY and DC. (By the way, I much prefer DC). That's a false premise.

Can you be clear about what you are saying because I’m confused. City leaders are very concerned about the present and future of downtown DC. But you are not. Why are you so hostile to people who share city leaders concerns? Do you have information that city leaders don’t?

[Anonymous]

The bottom line is that DC is the center of one of the most prosperous metropolitan areas in the country and the capital of the USA. Whatever "unique challenges" the article identifies are cancelled out and than some by these "unique characteristics."

And remember, this is the Wall Street Journal. It cites the move by Tucker Carlson to Florida as proof of DC's decline. Seriously?

[Anonymous]

Lots of hand wringing over nothing. Let the market work it's magic - you'll see shrinking office footprints for individual organizations, a consolidation of office space, and conversion to residential.

For example, office buildings closest to Dupont Circle and Mass Ave are prime candidates for conversion to residential given their proximity to other residential neighborhoods & amenities. If some of those are converted, existing office tenants will consolidate in more traditional office areas (K St, Metro Center).

It's going to take a couple years for all of this to shake out. But it will happen. DC still has a shortage of residential units by tens of thousands of units. This city's housing supply has not kept up with demand.

Once vaccines are available for kids, we will see a return to office. My prediction is January 2022 people start returning in large numbers for a few days per week.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Lots of hand wringing over nothing. Let the market work it's magic - you'll see shrinking office footprints for individual organizations, a consolidation of office space, and conversion to residential.

For example, office buildings closest to Dupont Circle and Mass Ave are prime candidates for conversion to residential given their proximity to other residential neighborhoods & amenities. If some of those are converted, existing office tenants will consolidate in more traditional office areas (K St, Metro Center).

It's going to take a couple years for all of this to shake out. But it will happen. DC still has a shortage of residential units by tens of thousands of units. This city's housing supply has not kept up with demand.

Once vaccines are available for kids, we will see a return to office. My prediction is January 2022 people start returning in large numbers for a few days per week.

Yesterday's Post article confused me, TBH. Its said residents who can telework are moving out of the city in droves for a variety of reasons including cost of living and personal security. Then it said the city will use this to convert offices to downtown residences. But it sounds like offices AND residents are leaving. Who is going to live there? Will they be subsidized/part of the affordbale housing plan? People with means are not clamoring for DC condos right now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lots of hand wringing over nothing. Let the market work it's magic - you'll see shrinking office footprints for individual organizations, a consolidation of office space, and conversion to residential.

For example, office buildings closest to Dupont Circle and Mass Ave are prime candidates for conversion to residential given their proximity to other residential neighborhoods & amenities. If some of those are converted, existing office tenants will consolidate in more traditional office areas (K St, Metro Center).

It's going to take a couple years for all of this to shake out. But it will happen. DC still has a shortage of residential units by tens of thousands of units. This city's housing supply has not kept up with demand.

Once vaccines are available for kids, we will see a return to office. My prediction is January 2022 people start returning in large numbers for a few days per week.

Yesterday's Post article confused me, TBH. Its said residents who can telework are moving out of the city in droves for a variety of reasons including cost of living and personal security. Then it said the city will use this to convert offices to downtown residences. But it sounds like offices AND residents are leaving. Who is going to live there? Will they be subsidized/part of the affordbale housing plan? People with means are not clamoring for DC condos right now.

Those who moved out of the city is not a massive tsunami, IMHO. A lot of it was families who would've moved eventually. And even with the real decline in population, its still nowhere near enough to make up for the deficit in housing units that DC needs.

What's hurting DC right now is the fact that the city did not have two years' worth of interns and recent graduates move to DC for entry level jobs. That's tens of thousands of new residents who didn't show up to rent apartments or houses.

A lot is in flux right now. DC will bounce back similar to NYC, but it will just take longer. And I predict it will coincide with the mass vaccination of children. Neither my spouse nor I are eager to jump back to our offices while our kid is unvaccinated.

[Anonymous]

Office space in neighborhoods will be more under demand than downtown. More convenient. Closer to where people are now. Human scale. In areas with activity.

If I was choosing office space right now, I’d much rather prefer DuPont to downtown. And even better, I’d probably pick Friendship Heights. Suburban office space is going to be in high demand.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I read the article and thought "meh." Everything that it reported applies equally to other large cities.

Except DC is more reliant on commuters than even NYC and doesn't have a state government to fall back on. Also the council just decided to spend all of the money they got from the feds on social spending instead of things that will attract people back into the city like lowering crime.Then you have WMATA hilariously floating proposals to build new metro stations in Georgetown when ridership is at 22% of pre-pandemic levels. They need to start making cuts and quickly otherwise the ones they have to make in 2 years will be even more painful.

Social spending is the most effective way to lower crime longterm.

[Anonymous]

They should try to pull a major university into metro center now while it’s still livable. Maybe a second campus for a big farther out school like VA tech or a lure local one like American university downtown. Sucks because they are property tax exempt (which should not be allowed) but at this point you need to get people occupying down there any way possible. I think law firms will come back at 50% and feds maybe 30%. You have to prepare for a new reality. Covid funds should have gone for this.

[Anonymous]

I haven't read every single reply, but one issue is traffic. I work downtown and most of my colleagues do want to be back in person at least half-time. But we don't *have* to be back in person. And right now the traffic into DC is really lousy because the DC government is more concerned with bike lanes and giving NWDC residents free street parking than in winning back office workers.

As long as I have to sit in a nightmare of 2 lanes on Conn Ave to get home at night, why should I bother? I can just meet colleagues for lunch when we want to have informal opportunities to interact. Some degree of personal flexibility on telework is now the norm for a lot of people, including many more USG offices than was previously the case. So if DC wants to ensure businesses thrive downtown, they'll have to make it worth our while. Revert to pre-Covid commuter traffic (including re-opening Beach Drive and the 4-lane rush hour switch on Conn Ave) and you'll get more of us back in the office and spending money at DC restaurants and shops.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:They should try to pull a major university into metro center now while it’s still livable. Maybe a second campus for a big farther out school like VA tech or a lure local one like American university downtown. Sucks because they are property tax exempt (which should not be allowed) but at this point you need to get people occupying down there any way possible. I think law firms will come back at 50% and feds maybe 30%. You have to prepare for a new reality. Covid funds should have gone for this.

Johns Hopkins is consolidating all its DC graduate programs at the Newseum building on the Mall. It will have a unified campus in downtown DC, a short walk to the Archives and CapOne arena. The buildings on Mass Ave in Dupont will be sold off. So we are already seeing this play out. It won't surprise me if all the Mass Ave buildings are torn down and converted to high-end residential (great location).

Georgetown Law is already in downtown DC.

One trend I've noticed prior to COVID is major universities from around the country opening DC mini-campuses for students who want to study here for a semester and do an internship. I think we continue to see that accelerate with more universities setting up operations here. Harvard is in the process of expanding its presence in Georgetown at Dumbarton Oaks. The UC system has an entire building near Dupont. ASU opened a center near my office on I Street prior to the pandemic.

[Anonymous]

Former DC resident (2002-2021) here. I lived in DC when my nearest grocery store was a sketchy Safeway, and left DC when there was a WF and TJ's nearby. I've seen it on the rise, and I saw it on the decline in the years before I left (rising crime even before the pandemic, social unrest, filth, etc).

For those of you property owners on the defensive, don't forget that DC was a very bad place to live circa 1970-2000. It can return to those days if given the chance. No reason it couldn't, especially with a wacky City Council.

For those of you dismissing the lady who relocated her family due to the social unrest, don't forget that it was people like her who came into DC around 2010 or so, which in turn encouraged the restaurants, shops, etc. People like that lady probably wouldn't have lived in DC even when I began living there, but things were changing and they were coming. Those restaurants and Whole Foods wouldn't have been around had the big earners not come in the first place. If the $$ leaves, the stores leave. It's that simple.

My family saw it on the South Side of Chicago; I've seen it in DC. Things change- don't count on anything staying the same.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I haven't read every single reply, but one issue is traffic. I work downtown and most of my colleagues do want to be back in person at least half-time. But we don't *have* to be back in person. And right now the traffic into DC is really lousy because the DC government is more concerned with bike lanes and giving NWDC residents free street parking than in winning back office workers.

As long as I have to sit in a nightmare of 2 lanes on Conn Ave to get home at night, why should I bother? I can just meet colleagues for lunch when we want to have informal opportunities to interact. Some degree of personal flexibility on telework is now the norm for a lot of people, including many more USG offices than was previously the case. So if DC wants to ensure businesses thrive downtown, they'll have to make it worth our while. Revert to pre-Covid commuter traffic (including re-opening Beach Drive and the 4-lane rush hour switch on Conn Ave) and you'll get more of us back in the office and spending money at DC restaurants and shops.

DC resident here. We don't care what you think. You don't even pay DC taxes -- you don't own a home here and DC can't impose a commuter tax. You're a drain on our resources, not a net gain, and we don't care if you or your stinking car ever come back.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Former DC resident (2002-2021) here. I lived in DC when my nearest grocery store was a sketchy Safeway, and left DC when there was a WF and TJ's nearby. I've seen it on the rise, and I saw it on the decline in the years before I left (rising crime even before the pandemic, social unrest, filth, etc).

For those of you property owners on the defensive, don't forget that DC was a very bad place to live circa 1970-2000. It can return to those days if given the chance. No reason it couldn't, especially with a wacky City Council.

For those of you dismissing the lady who relocated her family due to the social unrest, don't forget that it was people like her who came into DC around 2010 or so, which in turn encouraged the restaurants, shops, etc. People like that lady probably wouldn't have lived in DC even when I began living there, but things were changing and they were coming. Those restaurants and Whole Foods wouldn't have been around had the big earners not come in the first place. If the $$ leaves, the stores leave. It's that simple.

My family saw it on the South Side of Chicago; I've seen it in DC. Things change- don't count on anything staying the same.

Ok Karen.