The Pandemic Hit Cities Hard And Then There's Washington, DC

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:I’m one who moved. Our very high income family was sick of being taxed like crazy, having no school, and (most of all) being surrounded by loons who think looting is a form of free speech and that encampments of human poo/drugs are appropriate near schools.

We are enjoying our lower tax rate, and REALLY enjoying living with people who have common sense!

Thanks for confirming that most of the posters on this thread get off on the city's problems.

Oh, and I'll bey your "very high income family" makes less than mine. Otherwise you would have gone private.

DP. Why is it so hard to understand that some people with means no longer want to live in DC, even if private would be an option? Anyone who knows anyone in DC has known countless families who have relocated permanently over the last 2 years.

I know it’s easier to chalk it up to those leaving not being as wealthy as you or not being able to afford private, but that shows how small minded you are.

And you're small minded because you assume that what "families" do means everything. DC has always been a transient city from which rich racist mommies and daddies have moved out when they have kids. It's nothing new. The broader trend is that the city is growing -- not shrinking.

Is this true though? Has DC been increasing in population since covid?

It was not even true pre-COVID. 2019 had basically zero population growth. 2020 had negative growth.

I said "broader trend." Not just the last two years. DC rents are already just about back to pre-covid levels.

That's not even a "broader trend". Population growth rate has been in secular since 2013.
https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/births-in-migration-maintain-district-population-growth/

[Anonymous]

I have friends in NYC who said it was very depressing to live there during the pandemic.

I feel like living in DC has proven to me how great this city is.

DC has the nation's best park scores:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-has-the-nations-best-park-system-study-says-arlington-isnt-far-behind/2019/05/21/ecbd528c-7b1f-11e9-a3dd-d481bcdabfe6_story.html

Which my family took full advantage of during COVID.

That alone is huge.

Our architecture (adjoining row houses with neighboring porches) makes it much easier to talk to your neighbors. We got to know many more people who live near us during the pandemic.

As a city, DC has done well in this pandemic.

Predictably, some areas downtown with few residents and high concentration of office workers are still a bit empty. Not surprising given how dominant an employer the Federal Government is and how few members of that workforce have been called back.

But that real estate will never be worthless. It's a ten minute cab ride from Capitol Hill. A place that will never change its address. I'm fairly confident that's worth something.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:I wonder how many of you actually live in DC. We live in the U Street/Logan area and it's basically like there never was a pandemic. If you need to move to Frederick because of housing prices and "social unrest," well, good luck to you. You'll be replaced soon enough by the more prosperous.

Oh, a couple days ago a realtor knocked on my door and literally begged me to sell my townhouse. If DC is dying, you sure can't tell from the real estate prices.

So many suburbanites seem to get off on DC's impending demise. It's ain't gonna happen.

I believe you that your neighborhood is doing great. People who used to go into offices and spend money downtown are now spending their money closer to home. When is the last time you went downtown?

I never go downtown because I don't work. But I know, for example, that most of the major law firms are soon to require their workers to return to the office full or nearly full time. The delta variant has slowed things down, to be sure, but DC is going to come back.

I don't get why so many on DCUM seem to delight on DC having problems. It's an odd psychology.

No one is delighting. That’s your odd assumption.

Look - the WSJ had a front page article about this. There has to be *some* truth to it.

Sure, some law firms are requiring lawyers to return FT. But major law firms aren’t a large % of employers in the district. Look at what government agencies and contractors require. That’s what matters.

It's an opinion piece supported by a few anecdotes of people who left town, some of whom would have left anyway. DC has always been a transient city.

And I used law firms as an example. They're hardly the only employers who are requiring workers to come back -- and, yes they are a large percentage of employers. DC's downtown is full of law firms, for pete's sake.

That's an embarrassing thing to say. It's a well reported piece of journalism. You are starting to sound like a "fake news" Trump in your attempts to rebut a very interesting story.

It's not a hard news story. That's all I'm saying. If it were, then no one could disagree with it.

Have you read the article? It contains a lot of stats on employers, new work arrangements, DC population growth etc. Yes, it contains some personal anecdotes.

I realize the story is likely upsetting to you. It’s why you’re so defensive.

The story doesn't upset me in the least. I'm fine personally, professionally, socially, and economically no matter what happens to and in DC. I'm just curious as to why so many DCUM posters get off on putting the city down and wishing its demise. You're all so damned nasty and petty. It's astounding.

DP. Let's be clear here. You are calling a well reported article that it seems that you may not have even read a piece of opinion because you personally disagree with it and personally believe that it is not "hard news". When people rightly point out that this is weird and defensive behavior, your response is to engage in ad hominem?

No, my point is that well-reported or not, it's not a hard news story and I'm not going to rush my $1.7 million row home to market in a panic because of it.

And, yes, I read the article. I hope the guy who moved to Florida and has a view of the ocean enjoys his Trumpian paradise.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:I’m one who moved. Our very high income family was sick of being taxed like crazy, having no school, and (most of all) being surrounded by loons who think looting is a form of free speech and that encampments of human poo/drugs are appropriate near schools.

We are enjoying our lower tax rate, and REALLY enjoying living with people who have common sense!

Thanks for confirming that most of the posters on this thread get off on the city's problems.

Oh, and I'll bey your "very high income family" makes less than mine. Otherwise you would have gone private.

DP. Why is it so hard to understand that some people with means no longer want to live in DC, even if private would be an option? Anyone who knows anyone in DC has known countless families who have relocated permanently over the last 2 years.

I know it’s easier to chalk it up to those leaving not being as wealthy as you or not being able to afford private, but that shows how small minded you are.

And you're small minded because you assume that what "families" do means everything. DC has always been a transient city from which rich racist mommies and daddies have moved out when they have kids. It's nothing new. The broader trend is that the city is growing -- not shrinking.

Is this true though? Has DC been increasing in population since covid?

It was not even true pre-COVID. 2019 had basically zero population growth. 2020 had negative growth.

I said "broader trend." Not just the last two years. DC rents are already just about back to pre-covid levels.

That's not even a "broader trend". Population growth rate has been in secular since 2013.
https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/births-in-migration-maintain-district-population-growth/

I'm not gonna read that whole article, sorry. But glancing at it, I don't see how it supports your claim.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I have friends in NYC who said it was very depressing to live there during the pandemic.

I feel like living in DC has proven to me how great this city is.

DC has the nation's best park scores:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-has-the-nations-best-park-system-study-says-arlington-isnt-far-behind/2019/05/21/ecbd528c-7b1f-11e9-a3dd-d481bcdabfe6_story.html

Which my family took full advantage of during COVID.

That alone is huge.

Our architecture (adjoining row houses with neighboring porches) makes it much easier to talk to your neighbors. We got to know many more people who live near us during the pandemic.

As a city, DC has done well in this pandemic.

Predictably, some areas downtown with few residents and high concentration of office workers are still a bit empty. Not surprising given how dominant an employer the Federal Government is and how few members of that workforce have been called back.

But that real estate will never be worthless. It's a ten minute cab ride from Capitol Hill. A place that will never change its address. I'm fairly confident that's worth something.

Not that long ago there was a Filene's Basement in Metro Center. So it's always been worth at least enough to sustain discount clothes retailing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:I’m one who moved. Our very high income family was sick of being taxed like crazy, having no school, and (most of all) being surrounded by loons who think looting is a form of free speech and that encampments of human poo/drugs are appropriate near schools.

We are enjoying our lower tax rate, and REALLY enjoying living with people who have common sense!

Thanks for confirming that most of the posters on this thread get off on the city's problems.

Oh, and I'll bey your "very high income family" makes less than mine. Otherwise you would have gone private.

DP. Why is it so hard to understand that some people with means no longer want to live in DC, even if private would be an option? Anyone who knows anyone in DC has known countless families who have relocated permanently over the last 2 years.

I know it’s easier to chalk it up to those leaving not being as wealthy as you or not being able to afford private, but that shows how small minded you are.

And you're small minded because you assume that what "families" do means everything. DC has always been a transient city from which rich racist mommies and daddies have moved out when they have kids. It's nothing new. The broader trend is that the city is growing -- not shrinking.

Is this true though? Has DC been increasing in population since covid?

It was not even true pre-COVID. 2019 had basically zero population growth. 2020 had negative growth.

I said "broader trend." Not just the last two years. DC rents are already just about back to pre-covid levels.

That's not even a "broader trend". Population growth rate has been in secular since 2013.
https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/births-in-migration-maintain-district-population-growth/

I'm not gonna read that whole article, sorry. But glancing at it, I don't see how it supports your claim.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m one who moved. Our very high income family was sick of being taxed like crazy, having no school, and (most of all) being surrounded by loons who think looting is a form of free speech and that encampments of human poo/drugs are appropriate near schools.

We are enjoying our lower tax rate, and REALLY enjoying living with people who have common sense!

Thanks for confirming that most of the posters on this thread get off on the city's problems.

Oh, and I'll bey your "very high income family" makes less than mine. Otherwise you would have gone private.

DP. Why is it so hard to understand that some people with means no longer want to live in DC, even if private would be an option? Anyone who knows anyone in DC has known countless families who have relocated permanently over the last 2 years.

I know it’s easier to chalk it up to those leaving not being as wealthy as you or not being able to afford private, but that shows how small minded you are.

And you're small minded because you assume that what "families" do means everything. DC has always been a transient city from which rich racist mommies and daddies have moved out when they have kids. It's nothing new. The broader trend is that the city is growing -- not shrinking.

Is this true though? Has DC been increasing in population since covid?

It was not even true pre-COVID. 2019 had basically zero population growth. 2020 had negative growth.

I said "broader trend." Not just the last two years. DC rents are already just about back to pre-covid levels.

That's not even a "broader trend". Population growth rate has been in secular since 2013.
https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/births-in-migration-maintain-district-population-growth/

I'm not gonna read that whole article, sorry. But glancing at it, I don't see how it supports your claim.

Not sure if you read that chart you posted, but it shows that DC's population growth has slowed but the city is still growing. Did you misunderstand it? Do you need one of us with a degree in policy analysis to walk you through it?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Interesting and well reported WSJ article. Doesn't paint a positive picture.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/washington-dc-real-estate-prices-government-remote-work-11632753953

I honestly think the risk from here is contagion effect. If people think that everyone is leaving it encourages more people to leave.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Interesting and well reported WSJ article. Doesn't paint a positive picture.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/washington-dc-real-estate-prices-government-remote-work-11632753953

I honestly think the risk from here is contagion effect. If people think that everyone is leaving it encourages more people to leave.

People who live here don't think that, though. They have more data points.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:I’m one who moved. Our very high income family was sick of being taxed like crazy, having no school, and (most of all) being surrounded by loons who think looting is a form of free speech and that encampments of human poo/drugs are appropriate near schools.

We are enjoying our lower tax rate, and REALLY enjoying living with people who have common sense!

Thanks for confirming that most of the posters on this thread get off on the city's problems.

Oh, and I'll bey your "very high income family" makes less than mine. Otherwise you would have gone private.

DP. Why is it so hard to understand that some people with means no longer want to live in DC, even if private would be an option? Anyone who knows anyone in DC has known countless families who have relocated permanently over the last 2 years.

I know it’s easier to chalk it up to those leaving not being as wealthy as you or not being able to afford private, but that shows how small minded you are.

And you're small minded because you assume that what "families" do means everything. DC has always been a transient city from which rich racist mommies and daddies have moved out when they have kids. It's nothing new. The broader trend is that the city is growing -- not shrinking.

Is this true though? Has DC been increasing in population since covid?

It was not even true pre-COVID. 2019 had basically zero population growth. 2020 had negative growth.

I said "broader trend." Not just the last two years. DC rents are already just about back to pre-covid levels.

That's not even a "broader trend". Population growth rate has been in secular since 2013.
https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/births-in-migration-maintain-district-population-growth/

I'm not gonna read that whole article, sorry. But glancing at it, I don't see how it supports your claim.

Ok. I see growth, not decline. Slower growth in more recent years, to be sure, but no decline until the pandemic. And there's no broader context. How does DC compare to the rest of the region? The rest of the country? In the last decade DC's population grew at twice the rate of the national average, so it has room to give.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m one who moved. Our very high income family was sick of being taxed like crazy, having no school, and (most of all) being surrounded by loons who think looting is a form of free speech and that encampments of human poo/drugs are appropriate near schools.

We are enjoying our lower tax rate, and REALLY enjoying living with people who have common sense!

Thanks for confirming that most of the posters on this thread get off on the city's problems.

Oh, and I'll bey your "very high income family" makes less than mine. Otherwise you would have gone private.

DP. Why is it so hard to understand that some people with means no longer want to live in DC, even if private would be an option? Anyone who knows anyone in DC has known countless families who have relocated permanently over the last 2 years.

I know it’s easier to chalk it up to those leaving not being as wealthy as you or not being able to afford private, but that shows how small minded you are.

And you're small minded because you assume that what "families" do means everything. DC has always been a transient city from which rich racist mommies and daddies have moved out when they have kids. It's nothing new. The broader trend is that the city is growing -- not shrinking.

Is this true though? Has DC been increasing in population since covid?

It was not even true pre-COVID. 2019 had basically zero population growth. 2020 had negative growth.

I said "broader trend." Not just the last two years. DC rents are already just about back to pre-covid levels.

That's not even a "broader trend". Population growth rate has been in secular since 2013.
https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/births-in-migration-maintain-district-population-growth/

I'm not gonna read that whole article, sorry. But glancing at it, I don't see how it supports your claim.

Not sure if you read that chart you posted, but it shows that DC's population growth has slowed but the city is still growing. Did you misunderstand it? Do you need one of us with a degree in policy analysis to walk you through it?

Oh my god. If you read what I wrote, I said explicitly that growth rates are in decline which is what that chart shows you. These rates are based on census estimates. It turned out once the 2020 census came in that these estimates were too aggressive. Furthermore, data from a variety of sources, including as reported in the article (if you read it) USPS moving requests show that net population declined in 2020.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m one who moved. Our very high income family was sick of being taxed like crazy, having no school, and (most of all) being surrounded by loons who think looting is a form of free speech and that encampments of human poo/drugs are appropriate near schools.

We are enjoying our lower tax rate, and REALLY enjoying living with people who have common sense!

Thanks for confirming that most of the posters on this thread get off on the city's problems.

Oh, and I'll bey your "very high income family" makes less than mine. Otherwise you would have gone private.

DP. Why is it so hard to understand that some people with means no longer want to live in DC, even if private would be an option? Anyone who knows anyone in DC has known countless families who have relocated permanently over the last 2 years.

I know it’s easier to chalk it up to those leaving not being as wealthy as you or not being able to afford private, but that shows how small minded you are.

And you're small minded because you assume that what "families" do means everything. DC has always been a transient city from which rich racist mommies and daddies have moved out when they have kids. It's nothing new. The broader trend is that the city is growing -- not shrinking.

Is this true though? Has DC been increasing in population since covid?

It was not even true pre-COVID. 2019 had basically zero population growth. 2020 had negative growth.

I said "broader trend." Not just the last two years. DC rents are already just about back to pre-covid levels.

That's not even a "broader trend". Population growth rate has been in secular since 2013.
https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/births-in-migration-maintain-district-population-growth/

I'm not gonna read that whole article, sorry. But glancing at it, I don't see how it supports your claim.

Not sure if you read that chart you posted, but it shows that DC's population growth has slowed but the city is still growing. Did you misunderstand it? Do you need one of us with a degree in policy analysis to walk you through it?

Oh my god. If you read what I wrote, I said explicitly that growth rates are in decline which is what that chart shows you. These rates are based on census estimates. It turned out once the 2020 census came in that these estimates were too aggressive. Furthermore, data from a variety of sources, including as reported in the article (if you read it) USPS moving requests show that net population declined in 2020.

Actually, you said population growth rate has been secular since 2013. Which is not a synonym of decline. It's also nonsensical in this context. Regardless, if the city is still growing (and your chart shows it growing more than the Washington region as a whole) other than during what is clearly an anomalous time (COVID pandemic) then, I'm fine with the growth rate slowing. It doesn't mean the city is in decline.

[Anonymous]

The underlying issue is that office and hotel uses took a huge hit during covid, and that is what makes up downtown DC. We don’t have a huge residential or industrial base like many cities.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The underlying issue is that office and hotel uses took a huge hit during covid, and that is what makes up downtown DC. We don’t have a huge residential or industrial base like many cities.

Yes, but the hotel use decline is unlikely to be permanent. And we'll see about the office rates.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The underlying issue is that office and hotel uses took a huge hit during covid, and that is what makes up downtown DC. We don’t have a huge residential or industrial base like many cities.

Yes, but the hotel use decline is unlikely to be permanent. And we'll see about the office rates.

Why are you commenting on something that you clearly have not read and pretending knowledge and expertise on a subject that you are apparently ignorant? It's great that you are a cheerleader, but this is just bizarre and sad.

Owners of some of downtown’s oldest office buildings and hotels might be more receptive to converting those properties into residential spaces, said Mr. Falcicchio, the deputy mayor, since officials expect hotel rates in particular will be depressed for years.