The Pandemic Hit Cities Hard And Then There's Washington, DC

[Anonymous]

Interesting and well reported WSJ article. Doesn't paint a positive picture.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/washington-dc-real-estate-prices-government-remote-work-11632753953

[Anonymous]

The post has run articles with District leaders almost begging for a return to the offices. Feds definitely aren’t ever coming back en masse and this will inform other sectors decisions. WFH is here to stay as the President has alluded to.

[Anonymous]

Can’t see it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The post has run articles with District leaders almost begging for a return to the offices. Feds definitely aren’t ever coming back en masse and this will inform other sectors decisions. WFH is here to stay as the President has alluded to.

Based on quotes in the article, the plan from city officials is to convert hotels in downtown to residences with the goal to provide demand for retail and restaurants. But who wants to live at Metro Center?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The post has run articles with District leaders almost begging for a return to the offices. Feds definitely aren’t ever coming back en masse and this will inform other sectors decisions. WFH is here to stay as the President has alluded to.

Based on quotes in the article, the plan from city officials is to convert hotels in downtown to residences with the goal to provide demand for retail and restaurants. But who wants to live at Metro Center?

All the people who want to be close to the River, museums and sporting events, with easy access to bike trails and other amenities.

[Anonymous]

It seems like robbing Peter to pay Paul. If you build a ton of condos and rental units down town, it seems like you'll just cannibalize demand from other parts of the city

[Anonymous]

I read the article and thought "meh." Everything that it reported applies equally to other large cities.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I read the article and thought "meh." Everything that it reported applies equally to other large cities.

Except DC is more reliant on commuters than even NYC and doesn't have a state government to fall back on. Also the council just decided to spend all of the money they got from the feds on social spending instead of things that will attract people back into the city like lowering crime.Then you have WMATA hilariously floating proposals to build new metro stations in Georgetown when ridership is at 22% of pre-pandemic levels. They need to start making cuts and quickly otherwise the ones they have to make in 2 years will be even more painful.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The post has run articles with District leaders almost begging for a return to the offices. Feds definitely aren’t ever coming back en masse and this will inform other sectors decisions. WFH is here to stay as the President has alluded to.

Based on quotes in the article, the plan from city officials is to convert hotels in downtown to residences with the goal to provide demand for retail and restaurants. But who wants to live at Metro Center?

All the people who want to be close to the River, museums and sporting events, with easy access to bike trails and other amenities.

You can do already do that from existing and much nicer centrally located neighborhoods that have currently have high rental vacancies.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I read the article and thought "meh." Everything that it reported applies equally to other large cities.

Except DC is more reliant on commuters than even NYC and doesn't have a state government to fall back on. Also the council just decided to spend all of the money they got from the feds on social spending instead of things that will attract people back into the city like lowering crime.Then you have WMATA hilariously floating proposals to build new metro stations in Georgetown when ridership is at 22% of pre-pandemic levels. They need to start making cuts and quickly otherwise the ones they have to make in 2 years will be even more painful.

DC is also sort of unique in that all of the commuters live in other states. So everyone that moves out is a zero sum loss.

But it is also interesting that for a jurisdiction so reliant on commuters, they have been very hostile to commuters the last few years so it should not be a surprise that people are taking the hint.

The reality is that the neighborhoods are doing very well, for now. Downtown on the other hand is not in good shape. The question is whether over time what happens downtown spreads into the neighborhoods.

This is probably why they are desperate to get people to live downtown to turn it into a neighborhood because the alternative is quite alarming.

Fiscal management is a whole other issue. Turning a $500m windfall surplus last year into a $200m deficit this year is not good. Encouraging WMATA to spend their COVID windfall running empty buses and trains is also not smart, when even in best of times every ride loses money. A lot of Big Brain stuff going on right now that is going to look very foolish in a few years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It seems like robbing Peter to pay Paul. If you build a ton of condos and rental units down town, it seems like you'll just cannibalize demand from other parts of the city

I think that is what is happening with the Wharf vis-a-vis Adams Morgan, Cleveland and Woodley Park. Young professionals have now moved down the the Wharf and Navy Yard and those neighborhoods are not as vibrant as they used to be.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I read the article and thought "meh." Everything that it reported applies equally to other large cities.

And yet, NYC seems to be bounding back while DC is not.

[Anonymous]

Pretty damning quote in the article from a lady who moved to Frederick.

“The exodus calculation, for me, included the social unrest in D.C., the cost of living, becoming a mom,” said Ms. Zachariah. “But we could never make a move like this without flexibility at work.”

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Pretty damning quote in the article from a lady who moved to Frederick.

“The exodus calculation, for me, included the social unrest in D.C., the cost of living, becoming a mom,” said Ms. Zachariah. “But we could never make a move like this without flexibility at work.”

Meh. Anyone quoting social unrest was going to the suburbs (probably Silver Spring or Wheaton) 100%. Nothing to see there.

We were at the wharf this weekend it was packed.

Turn some empty offices into rock climbing gyms (already happening), ninja courses, art studios, you’ll see the DINK millenials and gen a line up.

Most jobs will still require some presence in office, so you can’t go full Fargo.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Pretty damning quote in the article from a lady who moved to Frederick.

“The exodus calculation, for me, included the social unrest in D.C., the cost of living, becoming a mom,” said Ms. Zachariah. “But we could never make a move like this without flexibility at work.”

Meh. Anyone quoting social unrest was going to the suburbs (probably Silver Spring or Wheaton) 100%. Nothing to see there.

We were at the wharf this weekend it was packed.

Turn some empty offices into rock climbing gyms (already happening), ninja courses, art studios, you’ll see the DINK millenials and gen a line up.

Most jobs will still require some presence in office, so you can’t go full Fargo.

Interesting that you are more optimistic and confidence about this than city leaders or downtown BID officials. Do you know something that no one else does? Also, where are these rock gyms, ninja course and art studios in DC office buildings?

Civic leaders worry that a prolonged cooling of the commercial real-estate market and slower tourism could damp the downtown foot traffic that keeps restaurants and retailers afloat.