This is a blue state bug (for now at least)

[Anonymous]

If you look around the US, where are the deaths?

Let's look at the top 20 states in terms of deaths per 100k people.

LA, MI, PA. IN, GA, and MS.

Infection rates?

LA, MI, PA, SD, GA, IN, and MS.

Now maybe the governors of TN/SC/GA/FL opening too soon might lead to more outbreaks like the one around Albany NY or Rapid City SD, but as of now? It's the red states doing better on average.

TX is barely getting hit, with an infection rate 1/4 that of the national average and a death rate 1/10th the national average.

FL? Infection rate about half and a death rate about a third.

GA? Infection rate about two-thirds and a death rate about half.

What will the rejoinder be if TN, FL, GA, and SC re-open without massive amounts of illness and death by the end of May?

I mean I'm smart enough to realize it's the 2nd or 3rd inning of a 9 inning game, but come on, facts are facts right now. The red states are just doing better now.

I'm tired of hearing what a great job Governor Cuomo is doing. From where I can see it, he's presiding over infection rates TWICE that of Lombardy, and death rates that are approaching Lombardy. THAT's the model of our response right now?

I'd rather hear from Inslee, Newsome, or Brown (Oregon Gov). They seem to, well, actually be succeeding. The Northeast - and I include Maryland in this - needs to just stop telling red states what to do. They've failed to stop the virus, and to stop the deaths. Maybe the governors of MN or NM, too, they seem to be leading a decent blue state response to this virus.

This virus isn't some liberal avenger, punishing the dumb Trumpies for their dumb choices.

Either from density or from dumb luck, the blue states are getting slammed and the red states getting spared.

If it's density, maybe density isn't the solution to all our problems.

[jsteele]

Find a chart showing testing rates. Almost invariably, the states with lower infection rates also have lower testing rates. They likely have much wider infections than they understand but prefer to keep their heads in the sand.

[Anonymous]

maybe density isn't the solution to all our problems.

I’m lost. Who was it who said “density is the solution to all our problems”?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If you look around the US, where are the deaths?

Let's look at the top 20 states in terms of deaths per 100k people.

LA, MI, PA. IN, GA, and MS.

Infection rates?

LA, MI, PA, SD, GA, IN, and MS.

Now maybe the governors of TN/SC/GA/FL opening too soon might lead to more outbreaks like the one around Albany NY or Rapid City SD, but as of now? It's the red states doing better on average.

TX is barely getting hit, with an infection rate 1/4 that of the national average and a death rate 1/10th the national average.

FL? Infection rate about half and a death rate about a third.

GA? Infection rate about two-thirds and a death rate about half.

What will the rejoinder be if TN, FL, GA, and SC re-open without massive amounts of illness and death by the end of May?

I mean I'm smart enough to realize it's the 2nd or 3rd inning of a 9 inning game, but come on, facts are facts right now. The red states are just doing better now.

I'm tired of hearing what a great job Governor Cuomo is doing. From where I can see it, he's presiding over infection rates TWICE that of Lombardy, and death rates that are approaching Lombardy. THAT's the model of our response right now?

I'd rather hear from Inslee, Newsome, or Brown (Oregon Gov). They seem to, well, actually be succeeding. The Northeast - and I include Maryland in this - needs to just stop telling red states what to do. They've failed to stop the virus, and to stop the deaths. Maybe the governors of MN or NM, too, they seem to be leading a decent blue state response to this virus.

This virus isn't some liberal avenger, punishing the dumb Trumpies for their dumb choices.

Either from density or from dumb luck, the blue states are getting slammed and the red states getting spared.

If it's density, maybe density isn't the solution to all our problems.

did you make some sort of typo? Aren't LA, MI, PA. IN, GA, and MS all red states?

[Anonymous]

MI and PA are not solid red.

GA is purple.

[Anonymous]

jsteele wrote:Find a chart showing testing rates. Almost invariably, the states with lower infection rates also have lower testing rates. They likely have much wider infections than they understand but prefer to keep their heads in the sand.

Here is a site with charts. Seems to be fairly up-to-date.

https://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/coronavirus-testing-by-state-chart-of-new-cases/

If you look at testing rates and compare to population %, many of the states with lower infection rates are doing a pretty damn good job of testing.

[Anonymous]

Op, you post makes no sense. The states you’ve named with high infections are red states. I’m confused.

[Anonymous]

First— site your data?

Second, LA, MS, SD— not blue states

Third, the Republican governor of MD has no power to make a governor of a Southern State do anything. But, he is an R governor.

Fourth— About Texas... https://www.texasobserver.org/east-texas-coronavirus-chicken/

And Jeff’s right. It’s easy to declare your state CV free if you don’t test anyone.

And Kemp lost me at because he’s a moron. If you think it’s time to reopen, even Trump says do it in phases. Starting with hair salons, Massages, tattoo parlors, bowling alleys and movie theaters? He is literaly starting with the least essential, most likely to cause a mass outbreak places.

[Anonymous]

jsteele wrote:Find a chart showing testing rates. Almost invariably, the states with lower infection rates also have lower testing rates. They likely have much wider infections than they understand but prefer to keep their heads in the sand.

While testing rates are a good metric to assess a state's vigilance, it would seem to me that infection rate is determined by number of positive results/number of tests given. This is the best indicator as to how a state is faring wrt infections, especially since those that are showing symptoms are the most likely to be tested.

[Anonymous]

Using Worldometer for my stats here ...

I'd look at positive test rates too - I'd argue a state with 100 cases and 10,000 tests is in a better situation than an equally populated state with 1,000 cases and 12,500 tests. (likely shows some contact tracing, or other efforts to contain the spread have been done.)

For example, NY state has a positive test rate of 40% which indicates either they're really good at testing only those who need it, or they're in a much more dire situation than we thought.

US median is 1280 tests per 100k people, which actually puts us above places like the Netherlands, the UK, Sweden, France, and Finland.

Germany, Portugal, Lithuania, Norway, Estonia are some countries with higher testing rates and lower infection rates than us. So a sort of blue state model *could *work (and seems to be working in places like OR and MN, which both have positive test rates in the realm of 5% but aren't THAT high up in the testing charts.)

UT and ND seem like they're testing like crazy and have lower infection rates. Death rates are sort of fungible as some places count nursing home deaths, other places don't, and other places are quicker to ascribe excess of normal deaths to COVID-19.

MN and OR seem to be good models of isolate + test although neither are blowing up the chart in testing rates - but their low positive and low infection rates indicate this may not be fully necessary. (yet)

Among the big red states:
Florida has a positive test rate of under 10%. It's also above the US average in terms of testing rates.

Texas has a positive test rate of about 10%. But - It's near the bottom in testing rates (Virginia is for some reason 50th of 51 counting DC, even below Puerto Rico!)

Georgia may be worrisome as they are at the bottom of the testing rate table BUT have a positive test rate of 22% or so. This indicates fewer tests than ideal (although I suspect all states have gotten to the point now where anyone actively showing any of fever, dry cough, shortness of breath can get a test - it's not like early March where you'd show all three and get refused b/c you hadn't been to China.)

To be honest, I'm most worried about their opening up as - (1) they're the worst off case and death wise of the four re-opening states, (2) they have MARTA - mass transit seems to be a huge vector for spreading the disease, and (3) they already have a big rural cluster in SW Georgia around Albany.

Among the other re-openers:
Tennessee - case rate 40% of the national average and death rate about one-sixth the national average. Testing rates above t he average, with a positive rate of about 7%.

South Carolina: case rate about one-third the national average and a death rate comparable to Tennessee's. Testing rate lower than Tenneessee's by a good margin, though and positive rates in the 10-11% range. They are more rural and Charleston/Columbia are smaller than Memphis/Nashville.

Again, my gut feeling is that GA will blow up very quickly. SC will likely escape any serious consequences, I'm confident about TN, and not so sure about FL.

The opening up may prove less monumental than folks think - it seems Disney is not sure about re-opening the House of Mouse anytime before the fall, and I don't know if major chains (think Regal, AMC, Gold's Gym, Planet Fitness, Hair Cuttery, etc.) are going to be reopening anytime soon. The re-opening might be more for domestic consumption than anything else, and for conservatives to point to those states to "show" that re-opening really won't harm anything.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

maybe density isn't the solution to all our problems.

I’m lost. Who was it who said “density is the solution to all our problems”?

Look at the Real Estate board, which seems to be an auxiliary to the GGW crowd.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you look around the US, where are the deaths?

Let's look at the top 20 states in terms of deaths per 100k people.

LA, MI, PA. IN, GA, and MS.

Infection rates?

LA, MI, PA, SD, GA, IN, and MS.

Now maybe the governors of TN/SC/GA/FL opening too soon might lead to more outbreaks like the one around Albany NY or Rapid City SD, but as of now? It's the red states doing better on average.

TX is barely getting hit, with an infection rate 1/4 that of the national average and a death rate 1/10th the national average.

FL? Infection rate about half and a death rate about a third.

GA? Infection rate about two-thirds and a death rate about half.

What will the rejoinder be if TN, FL, GA, and SC re-open without massive amounts of illness and death by the end of May?

I mean I'm smart enough to realize it's the 2nd or 3rd inning of a 9 inning game, but come on, facts are facts right now. The red states are just doing better now.

I'm tired of hearing what a great job Governor Cuomo is doing. From where I can see it, he's presiding over infection rates TWICE that of Lombardy, and death rates that are approaching Lombardy. THAT's the model of our response right now?

I'd rather hear from Inslee, Newsome, or Brown (Oregon Gov). They seem to, well, actually be succeeding. The Northeast - and I include Maryland in this - needs to just stop telling red states what to do. They've failed to stop the virus, and to stop the deaths. Maybe the governors of MN or NM, too, they seem to be leading a decent blue state response to this virus.

This virus isn't some liberal avenger, punishing the dumb Trumpies for their dumb choices.

Either from density or from dumb luck, the blue states are getting slammed and the red states getting spared.

If it's density, maybe density isn't the solution to all our problems.

did you make some sort of typo? Aren't LA, MI, PA. IN, GA, and MS all red states?

Yes. The other states among the top 20 in death and infection rates are blue states.

[Anonymous]

My guess is that Kemp wants to re-open to force a choice on the employees: (1) get your butt back to work or (2) don't come into work which will be recorded as quitting your job and therefore you don't get unemployment benefits.

He's a sneaky bastard. Always follow the money.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My guess is that Kemp wants to re-open to force a choice on the employees: (1) get your butt back to work or (2) don't come into work which will be recorded as quitting your job and therefore you don't get unemployment benefits.

He's a sneaky bastard. Always follow the money.

And, my guess is that Kemp wants to reopen because he is listening to his constituency who want to return to work.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My guess is that Kemp wants to re-open to force a choice on the employees: (1) get your butt back to work or (2) don't come into work which will be recorded as quitting your job and therefore you don't get unemployment benefits.

He's a sneaky bastard. Always follow the money.

And, my guess is that Kemp wants to reopen because he is listening to his constituency who want to return to work.

The news has been showing a lot of Georgians who emphatically do NOT want to return to work.

Kemp is listening to Trump.