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[quote=Anonymous]Using Worldometer for my stats here ...

I'd look at positive test rates too - I'd argue a state with 100 cases and 10,000 tests is in a better situation than an equally populated state with 1,000 cases and 12,500 tests. (likely shows some contact tracing, or other efforts to contain the spread have been done.)

For example, NY state has a positive test rate of 40% which indicates either they're really good at testing only those who need it, or they're in a much more dire situation than we thought.

US median is 1280 tests per 100k people, which actually puts us above places like the Netherlands, the UK, Sweden, France, and Finland.

Germany, Portugal, Lithuania, Norway, Estonia are some countries with higher testing rates and lower infection rates than us. So a sort of blue state model *could *work (and seems to be working in places like OR and MN, which both have positive test rates in the realm of 5% but aren't THAT high up in the testing charts.)

UT and ND seem like they're testing like crazy and have lower infection rates. Death rates are sort of fungible as some places count nursing home deaths, other places don't, and other places are quicker to ascribe excess of normal deaths to COVID-19.

MN and OR seem to be good models of isolate + test although neither are blowing up the chart in testing rates - but their low positive and low infection rates indicate this may not be fully necessary. (yet)

Among the big red states:
Florida has a positive test rate of under 10%. It's also above the US average in terms of testing rates.

Texas has a positive test rate of about 10%. But - It's near the bottom in testing rates (Virginia is for some reason 50th of 51 counting DC, even below Puerto Rico!)

Georgia may be worrisome as they are at the bottom of the testing rate table BUT have a positive test rate of 22% or so. This indicates fewer tests than ideal (although I suspect all states have gotten to the point now where anyone actively showing any of fever, dry cough, shortness of breath can get a test - it's not like early March where you'd show all three and get refused b/c you hadn't been to China.)

To be honest, I'm most worried about their opening up as - (1) they're the worst off case and death wise of the four re-opening states, (2) they have MARTA - mass transit seems to be a huge vector for spreading the disease, and (3) they already have a big rural cluster in SW Georgia around Albany.

Among the other re-openers: 
Tennessee - case rate 40% of the national average and death rate about one-sixth the national average. Testing rates above t he average, with a positive rate of about 7%.

South Carolina: case rate about one-third the national average and a death rate comparable to Tennessee's. Testing rate lower than Tenneessee's by a good margin, though and positive rates in the 10-11% range. They are more rural and Charleston/Columbia are smaller than Memphis/Nashville.

Again, my gut feeling is that GA will blow up very quickly. SC will likely escape any serious consequences, I'm confident about TN, and not so sure about FL.

The opening up may prove less monumental than folks think - it seems Disney is not sure about re-opening the House of Mouse anytime before the fall, and I don't know if major chains (think Regal, AMC, Gold's Gym, Planet Fitness, Hair Cuttery, etc.) are going to be reopening anytime soon. The re-opening might be more for domestic consumption than anything else, and for conservatives to point to those states to "show" that re-opening really won't harm anything. [/quote]

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