Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

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11/28/2024 10:05

Subject: Re:Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

quote

Anonymous

I still don't understand at all why some believe that Trump's election results in an automatic Russian victory? From what I see, Ukraine is still in a good position. Yes. It is demoralizing for Ukraine. Yes. Trump can lift sanctions on Russia in January, boosting Russia's economy. Yes. Russians can take additional territory. Yes. There is a scenario where everyone in Ukraine could one day capitulate and lay down their arms and put their hands up and say "you win, I give up".

Then what?

Russia is on a trajectory where I don't see any possible road that returns to normalcy. That inflection point passed a few months ago. Even if the Russian's "win" militarily and have all sanctions lifted, they will need to pay salaries for troops occupying Ukraine for years to come, but that means young Russian males not working in the Russian economy for years to come. Already central heating is breaking down in major cities and it's not even mid-winter. If you don't know, it's too impractical and expensive to heat large buildings in Russia individually, so in true Communist fashion, they rely upon superhot water pumped at high pressure into massive pipes. There have been cases of Russian children literally cooked by trying to cross these water breaches. Lifting sanctions won't help put food on the table for average Russian citizens this winter. It would be too little too late. The Russian Central Bank interest rates are already at 21%, with speculation it could jump to 25% in December's meeting. The official claim is that inflation is less than 9%, however, independent estimates are far higher than that (at least double). Plus, the Rouble is crashing. Why does this matter? Remember that the Russian Central Bank is not technically a true FIAT currency, since the Russian Central Bank sets it's own Rouble exchange rates. I would watch to see if Russia starts dumping Sovergn Fund assets or large amounts of precious metals in December to avoid domestic panic until January.

"Rouble lost one-third of value vs dollar since early August"
"the rouble weakened beyond 110 to the U.S. dollar"
"The central bank said it had decided not to buy foreign currency on the domestic market from Nov. 28 until the end of the year, but to defer these purchases until 2025."
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/russian-rouble-down-by-one-quarter-since-early-august-2024-11-27/

Although I can see a plus 6 to 12 months if Trump lifts sanctions in January? The wide difference has to do with other factors that are neither in Putin or Zelensky or Trump's control. Watch if anything happens with Solovyov between January and March. That should be telling. The real question is whether Trump will use the economic leverage against Russia? Ex. obtain cheap Russian oil to boost the US economy at Russia's expense, or does Russia play Trump like a tool?

7 months (+6-12 if sanctions lifted).