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Anonymous wrote:Ok, back to naming potential candidates at this point in time.
Will Harris run again? Is her book giving her some traction or is she cooked?
Harris is cooked. The field remains wide open. There are no favorites or front runners at present.
I don't expect much to happen until after midterms, but I will be watching AOC. She has her committee and is deciding whether to run for Senate or President. She would start off strong. She'll get the Sanders voters and she will get a lot of the youth vote. Democrats are going to have to coalesce around someone else early if they want to stop her. Having 6-12 candidates going deep into the primaries would work in AOC's favor.
I think Newsom gets wrecked by AOC if he's the alternative. So Democrats should probably find a midwesterner or southerner. I think AOC is going to be a juggernaut if she decides to run. Her charisma, authenticity, and her online game is on point. She will be tough to beat in this climate. People are pissed - both at the GOP and establishment Democrats. Some kind of "rebel" candidate is appealing for many voters. And after 12 years of 80+ geriatrics in the White House, her youth actually works in her favor. It's not a liability. When it comes to the nomination, she looks strong right now.
There is no way AOC will get the majority of American voters to cast their votes for her.
I think she will make it to the end of the primaries.
I don’t disagree but she is not a viable national candidate. Winning the most liberal states, as we have seen, is not enough in a presidential election. She needs to be able to connect with voters in purple states and I just don’t see it. She’s a NYC liberal with some far left rhetoric and policies (that I know she has tried to tone down as of late) that will not play in Ohio, Michigan, Arizona.
Sure, but if AOC runs she is going to get 20/30 percent of the vote in every single primary and caucus, whether Iowa, NH, SC, Nevada and so on. If there are ten other candidates splitting the remaining vote, AOC will be leading the delegate count very quickly for the Democratic nomination. She will certainly have the money and the staff to make it to the end. If Democrats don't coalesce around a viable alternative to AOC by Super Tuesday, then I think the nomination is hers as she then racks up big wins in California, NY, etc and takes those delegate hauls.
Can she win the general? Conventional wisdom says no. But these are weird times. Americans will be sick and tired of old men running the show. Vance is cringe and unappealing. Republicans will be broadly unpopular and mostly loathed. Rural conservative boomers are dying every day. Younger people and Hispanics who voted for Trump are once again repelled by Republicans. I don't think anything is predictable today.
But I do believe AOC is far stronger than people in DC think. Being the anti-establishment candidate is a huge plus in this environment.