WaPo feature on bad economic outlook for colleges

[Anonymous]

Told through the lens of one liberal arts college that's the canary in a coal mine. https://www.washingtonpost.com/magazine/2019/10/21/downfall-hampshire-college-broken-business-model-american-higher-education/?arc404=true

..."Because of low birthrates following the Great Recession, Carleton College economist Nathan Grawe predicts that the four-year-college applicant pool is likely to shrink by almost 280,000 per class, over four years, starting in 2026, a year known in higher ed as “the Apocalypse.” As youth populations decline everywhere but the southern and western United States, colleges in New England and the Midwest will find it increasingly hard to lure students, particularly those able to pay.

The problem is the business model. Colleges have long counted on wealthy students to subsidize the cost of education for those who can’t afford it. But for many institutions, that is becoming untenable. With only a $52 million endowment, Hampshire is especially vulnerable to this reality, but enrollment experts say it will affect many schools outside the most elite. Schools like Harvard, Princeton, Yale and MIT will be fine, says Jon Boeckenstedt, Oregon State University’s vice provost of enrollment management. “It’s those colleges in the middle of the curve, with good, solid, well-known reputations but not spectacular financial resources or academic reputation, that are feeling the pinch,” he explains." ...

[Anonymous]

Yes, a couple of poorly-managed and substandard smaller colleges will go under in the next few years, or merge with another college.

The overall outlook across the industry isn't that bad -- look at Virginia Tech needing to pay accepted students this year _not_ to enroll and delay by a year, and renting an entire Holiday Inn because they ran out of student housing for freshmen. Any gaps will be filled with more international students, who generally are ineligible for financial aid and thus pay full tuition.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes, a couple of poorly-managed and substandard smaller colleges will go under in the next few years, or merge with another college.

The overall outlook across the industry isn't that bad -- look at Virginia Tech needing to pay accepted students this year _not_ to enroll and delay by a year, and renting an entire Holiday Inn because they ran out of student housing for freshmen. Any gaps will be filled with more international students, who generally are ineligible for financial aid and thus pay full tuition.

Virginia Tech is a sample size of one. And the previous year they were under enrolled. That was an example of enrollment mismanagement.

[Anonymous]

This is nothing new right? I've been hearing about colleges going out of business for YEARS (at least it feels like years).

[Anonymous]

I've worked in higher ed for decades. Never heard that 2026 is "the apocalypse." I know birth rates will cause a decline in college-aged students, but more students seem interested in going to college. Maybe the issue will affect lesser known schools.

Glad they got an enrollment manager from Oregon to weight in? Random.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yes, a couple of poorly-managed and substandard smaller colleges will go under in the next few years, or merge with another college.

The overall outlook across the industry isn't that bad -- look at Virginia Tech needing to pay accepted students this year _not_ to enroll and delay by a year, and renting an entire Holiday Inn because they ran out of student housing for freshmen. Any gaps will be filled with more international students, who generally are ineligible for financial aid and thus pay full tuition.

Virginia Tech is a sample size of one. And the previous year they were under enrolled. That was an example of enrollment mismanagement.

Correct assessment. There was a thread about this a while go. They over-enroll one year and then take hundreds from the waitlist every other year. It's amazing that they haven't figured out how to meet their goals with slightly more precision.

[Anonymous]

If the president weren’t an idiot they could just make up for these shortfalls with International students.

[Anonymous]

The increased costs are the real problem. The bigger concern that is happening right now is that the small liberal arts colleges have become to expensive and can't attract enough students. Many are on the verge of bankruptcy now. They will not make it to 2026.

[Anonymous]

I had not realized that oberlin was reducing the number of students in the conservatory, and adding a business concentration.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I've worked in higher ed for decades. Never heard that 2026 is "the apocalypse." I know birth rates will cause a decline in college-aged students, but more students seem interested in going to college. Maybe the issue will affect lesser known schools.

Glad they got an enrollment manager from Oregon to weight in? Random.

This is the point. Bad news for the CTCL schools and the like. It will ratchet up pressure to get into the well-endowed schools that aren't as dependent on full-pay students, and make admissions to state flagship schools more difficult.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If the president weren’t an idiot they could just make up for these shortfalls with International students.

And exactly what changes in immigration policy that our "idiot president" is proposing or implementing affects the number of international students?

[Anonymous]

Even worse than demographic change is the potential changing nature of education delivery with online classes. If the residential college experience becomes less "necessary" and viewed as an indulgent luxury, many more colleges are screwed.

[Anonymous]

So, we all know that college costs have skyrocketed over the last couple of decades — is the article implying it’s because of the need to offer financial aid to less privileged kids? If many schools are funded through tuition and fees, and these schools have made major efforts to be more inclusive and diverse by offering more financial aid, doesn’t that have to be so? Maybe that’s been obvious to everyone else, but I didn’t really realize the direct connection until now — when the article said the state schools are a privilege for the wealthy, counterintuitive as that is.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If the president weren’t an idiot they could just make up for these shortfalls with International students.

And exactly what changes in immigration policy that our "idiot president" is proposing or implementing affects the number of international students?

Since Trump became the nominee, the rise of white supremacists and xenophobia has led to a drop in international student enrollment at US colleges. Unfortunately, Canadian universities may start to see this as well after their elections.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So, we all know that college costs have skyrocketed over the last couple of decades — is the article implying it’s because of the need to offer financial aid to less privileged kids? If many schools are funded through tuition and fees, and these schools have made major efforts to be more inclusive and diverse by offering more financial aid, doesn’t that have to be so? Maybe that’s been obvious to everyone else, but I didn’t really realize the direct connection until now — when the article said the state schools are a privilege for the wealthy, counterintuitive as that is.

It's interesting that there's no connection made to how much more expensive it is to operate now. There's more technology needed to teach, more services needed (from mental health to recreational facilities), and then the aid piece.