WaPo feature on bad economic outlook for colleges

[Anonymous]

This is one of the reasons I’m nervous to save 300-400k per kid in a 529.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There is no reason to physically attend college

Agree. But right now, an online certificate from the University of Phoenix just isn’t marketable.

[Anonymous]

Grad schools also look askance at online degrees

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So, we all know that college costs have skyrocketed over the last couple of decades — is the article implying it’s because of the need to offer financial aid to less privileged kids? If many schools are funded through tuition and fees, and these schools have made major efforts to be more inclusive and diverse by offering more financial aid, doesn’t that have to be so? Maybe that’s been obvious to everyone else, but I didn’t really realize the direct connection until now — when the article said the state schools are a privilege for the wealthy, counterintuitive as that is.

It's interesting that there's no connection made to how much more expensive it is to operate now. There's more technology needed to teach, more services needed (from mental health to recreational facilities), and then the aid piece.

My friend works in admin at a university. While spending has skyrocketed, most of it is _not_ going into teaching. The % of employees who are staff versus faculty has doubled. Lots of admin and spending on things like flashy sports stadiums and student centers and *fancy housing. Meanwhile, departmental budgets in academia are the first to get cut when things get tight.

*You must mean dorm rooms without mold. If not, tell me where these fancy rooms exist.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If the president weren’t an idiot they could just make up for these shortfalls with International students.

And exactly what changes in immigration policy that our "idiot president" is proposing or implementing affects the number of international students?

Since Trump became the nominee, the rise of white supremacists and xenophobia has led to a drop in international student enrollment at US colleges. Unfortunately, Canadian universities may start to see this as well after their elections.

Sorry the facts don't match what you would like to believe, but 2019 was a record year for international students, topping off at 1.09 million foreign students.

NP: That's the 2018 numbers (2019 aren't out yet), but there's been a slowing in the growth rate of international students in 2015/16 the percent change was 7%, in 2016-17 it was down to 3% and in 2018-19 it was down by 1/2 again to 1.5%. So the growth is definitely stalling, and applications are down further--with schools accepting higher balances. So while PP was incorrect to say there was a drop--you are disingenuous to say it is a "record year" when growth rates are clearly stalling--yes by the flat numbers every year is a record year, but the trend line isn't looking good.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This was supposed to happen for the class of 2019. I read about it when my child was born and I was so excited because they were just going to waltz into any school they wanted. But it's more competitive than ever. Yes I have been thinking about my child's college destination since they were born and fortunately they landed in a good place, but it certainly wasn't an easy process.

Argh. I was briefly excited for my C/O 2027 HS graduate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If the president weren’t an idiot they could just make up for these shortfalls with International students.

And exactly what changes in immigration policy that our "idiot president" is proposing or implementing affects the number of international students?

Since Trump became the nominee, the rise of white supremacists and xenophobia has led to a drop in international student enrollment at US colleges. Unfortunately, Canadian universities may start to see this as well after their elections.

Sorry the facts don't match what you would like to believe, but 2019 was a record year for international students, topping off at 1.09 million foreign students.

NP: That's the 2018 numbers (2019 aren't out yet), but there's been a slowing in the growth rate of international students in 2015/16 the percent change was 7%, in 2016-17 it was down to 3% and in 2018-19 it was down by 1/2 again to 1.5%. So the growth is definitely stalling, and applications are down further--with schools accepting higher balances. So while PP was incorrect to say there was a drop--you are disingenuous to say it is a "record year" when growth rates are clearly stalling--yes by the flat numbers every year is a record year, but the trend line isn't looking good.

"Record year": https://studyinthestates.dhs.gov/2018/11/open-doors-report-a-record-high-number-of-international-students

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Another one: https://www.insidehighered.com/admissions/article/2018/01/08/new-book-argues-most-colleges-are-about-face-significant-decline

Uh, that's just one statistician's opinion and I've still never heard of an apocalypse coming.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Another one: https://www.insidehighered.com/admissions/article/2018/01/08/new-book-argues-most-colleges-are-about-face-significant-decline

Uh, that's just one statistician's opinion and I've still never heard of an apocalypse coming.

Uh, google is your friend. But this was a good one:

The Great Enrollment Crash

https://www.chronicle.com/interactives/20190906-Conley

[Anonymous]

The Western Interstate for Higher Education is a good resource regarding this topic. Lots of data:

https://knocking.wiche.edu/

[Anonymous]

The thing I took away from the article, was that this isn't just about population decline, it's another income disparity issue. Colleges don't just need high school graduates, they need high school grads in the 1%. As income disparity has increased, there are fewer and fewer full pay students to fight over. The top schools will always receive plenty of qualified full pay applicants, and they are expert at ensuring their balance of need/full freight covers costs.

[Anonymous]

I haven't read the above links, but do they mention anything about online degrees?

I've been taking online courses for my second masters after having received 2 degrees in selective college/universities and I have to say that the quality of instruction is getting better and better.

I think we are approaching a perfect storm situation where parents are simply not willing to pay as much as they used to and not willing to let students go into debt for this college experience. There are a whole bunch of us who just don't have enough retirement saved. We are also concerned about future health care and long term care costs or we are having to help our own parents in retirement.

I know most of you on DCUM have been fully funding your retirements to the hilt, but that doesn't describe a lot of the general population. We maybe are still paying off our OWN college loans or only just finished paying them; we are looking at our savings and realizing we just don't have very much. There's NO WAY we are willing to spend or borrow from our HELOC or our 401Ks as so many did in the past; or to take on any debt for our kids' education.

Which means our expectations are dropping and we are OK looking into much cheaper options. Right as online schooling has gotten more acceptable. I think over the next decade college education is going to change, and the change will happen very fast.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If the president weren’t an idiot they could just make up for these shortfalls with International students.

And exactly what changes in immigration policy that our "idiot president" is proposing or implementing affects the number of international students?

Since Trump became the nominee, the rise of white supremacists and xenophobia has led to a drop in international student enrollment at US colleges. Unfortunately, Canadian universities may start to see this as well after their elections.

Well, there is no point in our country providing subsidized education to the citizens of other countries. Yes they may pay full tuition (not at elite schools), but are subsidized by federal grants to the colleges, fund-raising, etc. The cost of educating students exceeds tuition in many schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The thing I took away from the article, was that this isn't just about population decline, it's another income disparity issue. Colleges don't just need high school graduates, they need high school grads in the 1%. As income disparity has increased, there are fewer and fewer full pay students to fight over. The top schools will always receive plenty of qualified full pay applicants, and they are expert at ensuring their balance of need/full freight covers costs.

Or rather while in the past maybe the top 20% could comfortably afford college, now it's only the top 1%, and this has more to do with the hollowing out of the middle class, than the rise in tuition.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The thing I took away from the article, was that this isn't just about population decline, it's another income disparity issue. Colleges don't just need high school graduates, they need high school grads in the 1%. As income disparity has increased, there are fewer and fewer full pay students to fight over. The top schools will always receive plenty of qualified full pay applicants, and they are expert at ensuring their balance of need/full freight covers costs.

Or rather while in the past maybe the top 20% could comfortably afford college, now it's only the top 1%, and this has more to do with the hollowing out of the middle class, than the rise in tuition.

This. And first generation college students can no longer work their way through college, or even partially through college.

Three decades ago my parents could pay for part of my education, scholarships paid for the other portion, and my part time job paid for all my other expenses so my blue collar middle class parents (lower middle class by dcum standards) didn't have to. Now? Doubtful this could work financially.