WaPo feature on bad economic outlook for colleges

[Anonymous]

Did you see this piece on the news awhile ago? It predicts a quarter of schools will close in the next 20 years. The sad part is how devastating it will be for small towns like the one in the piece where the college is the center of the community.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/expert-predicts-25-percent-of-colleges-will-fail-in-the-next-20-years-2019-08-31/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Warning bell for any slac outside the top 25.

So, basically over 3000 colleges are in trouble?

I think you people need to get out of your "Top 25 or bust" bubble.

Any slac outside the top 25 is in trouble.

I don't agree. SLACs outside the top 100 without a decent endowment, reasonable operating costs and/or a niche target population may be in trouble. SLACs in the 25-100 range are mostly fairly strong--they may need to make adjustments in operating costs, amount of merit aid/tuition discounts offered--but that has gone up and down. A few may have too low of endowments, not a good handle on finances, not an attractive enough niche and may suffer. But,in some ways the SLACs that are innovative can be more nimble than public institutions--they only have to fill a small class, they have flexibility to adapt and change to a changing market without having to get every decision past a state governing board, they don't have requirements on how many in-state, in-country people they have to accept. I hope some of the most innovative academic models will come out of SLACs facing these challenges.

[Anonymous]

809 college and university endowments ranked here.

https://www.chronicle.com/article/Which-Colleges-Have-the/245587

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Warning bell for any slac outside the top 25.

So, basically over 3000 colleges are in trouble?

I think you people need to get out of your "Top 25 or bust" bubble.

Any slac outside the top 25 is in trouble.

I don't agree. SLACs outside the top 100 without a decent endowment, reasonable operating costs and/or a niche target population may be in trouble. SLACs in the 25-100 range are mostly fairly strong--they may need to make adjustments in operating costs, amount of merit aid/tuition discounts offered--but that has gone up and down. A few may have too low of endowments, not a good handle on finances, not an attractive enough niche and may suffer. But,in some ways the SLACs that are innovative can be more nimble than public institutions--they only have to fill a small class, they have flexibility to adapt and change to a changing market without having to get every decision past a state governing board, they don't have requirements on how many in-state, in-country people they have to accept. I hope some of the most innovative academic models will come out of SLACs facing these challenges.

I have one child at a state flagship and one at a Top 50 SLAC. The one at the flagship wouldn't be happy at a SLAC and the one at the SLAC would get lost at the Flagship. My point is that as a parent I see the need for both type of schools. Personally I prefer the SLAC model but I do recognize that it is not for everyone. And with merit at both they are "reasonably" affordable. Will there be consolidation - sure - there is consolidation in every industry. But I do believe the Top SLACs will actually thrive as education is the ultimate gift in life.

[Anonymous]

Of course, the SLAC's outlook is probably better than the Post's.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Warning bell for any slac outside the top 25.

So, basically over 3000 colleges are in trouble?

I think you people need to get out of your "Top 25 or bust" bubble.

Any slac outside the top 25 is in trouble.

So Holy Cross and its $1B endowment are in trouble? Do you often say stupid things or do you save them for us? Looking forward to your backpeddle. C’mon, you can do it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Warning bell for any slac outside the top 25.

So, basically over 3000 colleges are in trouble?

I think you people need to get out of your "Top 25 or bust" bubble.

Any slac outside the top 25 is in trouble.

So Holy Cross and its $1B endowment are in trouble? Do you often say stupid things or do you save them for us? Looking forward to your backpeddle. C’mon, you can do it.

+1. So dumb.

[Anonymous]

Soka at $1.3B is screwed. Sayonara.

[Anonymous]

My kid is interested in Roanoke College and University of Lynchburg. Are they screwed?

[Anonymous]

The article also mentioned Bucknell didn't meet their enrollment target.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My kid is interested in Roanoke College and University of Lynchburg. Are they screwed?

In the next 10 years - probably not.

There are some failrly well regarded schools already on the bubble - Earlham is really struggling as is Beloit.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My kid is interested in Roanoke College and University of Lynchburg. Are they screwed?

In the next 10 years - probably not.

There are some failrly well regarded schools already on the bubble - Earlham is really struggling as is Beloit.

My formerly SLAC, now a LAC is one of these. The endowment is only at $400M. We've got a massive capital campaign going but the institution may not recover.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Did you see this piece on the news awhile ago? It predicts a quarter of schools will close in the next 20 years. The sad part is how devastating it will be for small towns like the one in the piece where the college is the center of the community.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/expert-predicts-25-percent-of-colleges-will-fail-in-the-next-20-years-2019-08-31/

From the story:
"At Green Mountain College this past year, we didn't have one full paid student," Allen said, adding, "Our published tuition was $36,500, and the average student paid just a little over $12,000."

Why didn't they publish tuition rates of $15 K with fewer scholarships? They would have made more per student and I bet they wpuld have been swamped at applicants. They could have even offered a $1K merit scholarship and still have come out ahead.

[Anonymous]

Might be worth checking out this book published by JHU, written by a U of Chicago-trained economist, now Carleton College faculty member. https://jhupbooks.press.jhu.edu/title/demographics-and-demand-higher-education

He's quoted in the Post story, and his work seems to be what the article is based on. Willing to guess that there is more data and detail in there than the Post could include.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Did you see this piece on the news awhile ago? It predicts a quarter of schools will close in the next 20 years. The sad part is how devastating it will be for small towns like the one in the piece where the college is the center of the community.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/expert-predicts-25-percent-of-colleges-will-fail-in-the-next-20-years-2019-08-31/

From the story:
"At Green Mountain College this past year, we didn't have one full paid student," Allen said, adding, "Our published tuition was $36,500, and the average student paid just a little over $12,000."

Why didn't they publish tuition rates of $15 K with fewer scholarships? They would have made more per student and I bet they wpuld have been swamped at applicants. They could have even offered a $1K merit scholarship and still have come out ahead.

I agree. I can’t believe how many people don’t realize that at many privates the list price isn’t necessarily the price one should expect to pay. They do that because the full-pay shoppers are hard to give up, but the cost is many who won’t even consider applying.