are BCC and Whitman going to get less crowded?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I suspect they will get more crowded as people flee the rapidly expanding poverty in the east. There will be a round of SES flight in the not too distant future.

What on earth is "SES flight"?

Middle class people moving away from an influx of poor people who pull their middle class communities into lower class Territory. Modern white flight

You might want to look up the term SES.

while context is typically added, we can all agree that poor minorities have little to no SES

No, really, that's not how socioeconomic status works. You can have a high SES or a low SES, but you can't have a lot of SES or little SES.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I suspect they will get more crowded as people flee the rapidly expanding poverty in the east. There will be a round of SES flight in the not too distant future.

What on earth is "SES flight"?

Middle class people moving away from an influx of poor people who pull their middle class communities into lower class Territory. Modern white flight

You might want to look up the term SES.

while context is typically added, we can all agree that poor minorities have little to no SES

No, really, that's not how socioeconomic status works. You can have a high SES or a low SES, but you can't have a lot of SES or little SES.

No shit, tongue in cheek and you are nit picking semantics. Most likely because you’re a nit. Fact is watch the “good” families flee when the east continues to turn

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I suspect they will get more crowded as people flee the rapidly expanding poverty in the east. There will be a round of SES flight in the not too distant future.

What on earth is "SES flight"?

another fiction intended to sew fear. All the actual evidence shows the opposite to be true.

Then why are so many schools so poor and brown in what used to be a white middle class county. Hmmmm

Those areas were never white and middle class. Whites moved in as it as the only affordable housing left.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I suspect they will get more crowded as people flee the rapidly expanding poverty in the east. There will be a round of SES flight in the not too distant future.

What on earth is "SES flight"?

another fiction intended to sew fear. All the actual evidence shows the opposite to be true.

Then why are so many schools so poor and brown in what used to be a white middle class county. Hmmmm

You're asking why there are more low-income and non-white students than there used to be, in the public school system of a county where there are more low-income and non-white people than there used to be?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:BCC will definitely be less crowded since many of the students on its northern boundary will end up at Woodward.

count on it

I don’t see how MCPS avoids this. Development in BCC cluster is booming and can’t see how any future additionto BCC is possible

My guess is that if they need to shrink or alter the BCC zone, they will target neighborhoods/elementaries that feed into Westland, not the Silver Creek feeders. In the current climate, there's no way that MCPS will let a Bethesda HS become even *more* skewed in terms of racial/ethnic/SES demographics.

If this happens, pretty much everyone with kids living in current Westland feeders will move. The elementary schools in these areas have already been declining for years, and this will be the final nail in the coffin. This continued obsession with equality of outcomes and identity politics will eventually bankrupt the County. Northwest D.C. is rapidly becoming more attractive.

They'll likely move Westbrook to the Whitman cluster.

I think this has to be the most likely (and fair) solution. Geographically, Westbrook is the farthest BCC elementary school from BCC (the second farthest, Rock Creek Forest, is about a mile closer and provides much of BCC's economic and racial diversity, whereas Westbrook is the whitest elementary school that feeds to BCC). Moving Westbrook out of BCC will actually increase the diversity of BCC marginally, but BCC will remain one of the top high schools (Westbrook scores are a little better than Rock Creek Forest, pretty similar to Somerset, Bethesda and North Chevy Chase Elementary Schools and just a little lower than Chevy Chase Elementary School). The problem is that moving Westbrook to Whitman also doesn't improve Whitman's diversity. Moving Kensington to Woodward makes no sense for many reasons - what do you do with the rest of the area that sends students to North Chevy Chase, many of whom are walking distance from BCC? What do you do with Silver Creek, which was recently built inside Kensington? Geographically, Keninsgton is much closer to BCC than the Woodward site.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I suspect they will get more crowded as people flee the rapidly expanding poverty in the east. There will be a round of SES flight in the not too distant future.

What on earth is "SES flight"?

another fiction intended to sew fear. All the actual evidence shows the opposite to be true.

Then why are so many schools so poor and brown in what used to be a white middle class county. Hmmmm

You're asking why there are more low-income and non-white students than there used to be, in the public school system of a county where there are more low-income and non-white people than there used to be?

While that is true it is also true that many of the schools used to have way more white people, they went somewhere and for some reason

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I suspect they will get more crowded as people flee the rapidly expanding poverty in the east. There will be a round of SES flight in the not too distant future.

What on earth is "SES flight"?

another fiction intended to sew fear. All the actual evidence shows the opposite to be true.

Then why are so many schools so poor and brown in what used to be a white middle class county. Hmmmm

You're asking why there are more low-income and non-white students than there used to be, in the public school system of a county where there are more low-income and non-white people than there used to be?

While that is true it is also true that many of the schools used to have way more white people, they went somewhere and for some reason

Kids grew up. Empty nesters sold their homes. More and more POC moved into neighborhoods which "used to have way more white people."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I suspect they will get more crowded as people flee the rapidly expanding poverty in the east. There will be a round of SES flight in the not too distant future.

What on earth is "SES flight"?

another fiction intended to sew fear. All the actual evidence shows the opposite to be true.

Then why are so many schools so poor and brown in what used to be a white middle class county. Hmmmm

You're asking why there are more low-income and non-white students than there used to be, in the public school system of a county where there are more low-income and non-white people than there used to be?

While that is true it is also true that many of the schools used to have way more white people, they went somewhere and for some reason

Those white people got older and moved out/died.

In the 1980 Census, the population of Montgomery County was 579,053, and there were 477,976 residents who were non-Hispanic white (82.5% of the total population).

For 2018, the US Census Bureau estimates in the American Community Survey that the population of Montgomery County was 1,052,567, and there were 456,814 residents who were non-Hispanic white (43.4%).

In other words, the NUMBER of white residents in Montgomery County is still basically the same (a 4% decrease) as it was 40 years ago.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I suspect they will get more crowded as people flee the rapidly expanding poverty in the east. There will be a round of SES flight in the not too distant future.

What on earth is "SES flight"?

another fiction intended to sew fear. All the actual evidence shows the opposite to be true.

Then why are so many schools so poor and brown in what used to be a white middle class county. Hmmmm

You're asking why there are more low-income and non-white students than there used to be, in the public school system of a county where there are more low-income and non-white people than there used to be?

While that is true it is also true that many of the schools used to have way more white people, they went somewhere and for some reason

Those white people got older and moved out/died.

In the 1980 Census, the population of Montgomery County was 579,053, and there were 477,976 residents who were non-Hispanic white (82.5% of the total population).

For 2018, the US Census Bureau estimates in the American Community Survey that the population of Montgomery County was 1,052,567, and there were 456,814 residents who were non-Hispanic white (43.4%).

In other words, the NUMBER of white residents in Montgomery County is still basically the same (a 4% decrease) as it was 40 years ago.

In 2017-2018, MCPS has 32.3% Hispanic students, 28.3% white students, 21.4% black students, and 14.4% Asian students.
Since there is no group as majority, white students should also be counted as one of the minority groups. All groups are equal .

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:BCC will definitely be less crowded since many of the students on its northern boundary will end up at Woodward.

count on it

I don’t see how MCPS avoids this. Development in BCC cluster is booming and can’t see how any future additionto BCC is possible

My guess is that if they need to shrink or alter the BCC zone, they will target neighborhoods/elementaries that feed into Westland, not the Silver Creek feeders. In the current climate, there's no way that MCPS will let a Bethesda HS become even *more* skewed in terms of racial/ethnic/SES demographics.

If this happens, pretty much everyone with kids living in current Westland feeders will move. The elementary schools in these areas have already been declining for years, and this will be the final nail in the coffin. This continued obsession with equality of outcomes and identity politics will eventually bankrupt the County. Northwest D.C. is rapidly becoming more attractive.

They'll likely move Westbrook to the Whitman cluster.

That would leave Pyle even more crazily overcrowded and leave Westland practically empty.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:BCC will definitely be less crowded since many of the students on its northern boundary will end up at Woodward.

count on it

I don’t see how MCPS avoids this. Development in BCC cluster is booming and can’t see how any future additionto BCC is possible

My guess is that if they need to shrink or alter the BCC zone, they will target neighborhoods/elementaries that feed into Westland, not the Silver Creek feeders. In the current climate, there's no way that MCPS will let a Bethesda HS become even *more* skewed in terms of racial/ethnic/SES demographics.

If this happens, pretty much everyone with kids living in current Westland feeders will move. The elementary schools in these areas have already been declining for years, and this will be the final nail in the coffin. This continued obsession with equality of outcomes and identity politics will eventually bankrupt the County. Northwest D.C. is rapidly becoming more attractive.

They'll likely move Westbrook to the Whitman cluster.

I think this has to be the most likely (and fair) solution. Geographically, Westbrook is the farthest BCC elementary school from BCC (the second farthest, Rock Creek Forest, is about a mile closer and provides much of BCC's economic and racial diversity, whereas Westbrook is the whitest elementary school that feeds to BCC). Moving Westbrook out of BCC will actually increase the diversity of BCC marginally, but BCC will remain one of the top high schools (Westbrook scores are a little better than Rock Creek Forest, pretty similar to Somerset, Bethesda and North Chevy Chase Elementary Schools and just a little lower than Chevy Chase Elementary School). The problem is that moving Westbrook to Whitman also doesn't improve Whitman's diversity. Moving Kensington to Woodward makes no sense for many reasons - what do you do with the rest of the area that sends students to North Chevy Chase, many of whom are walking distance from BCC? What do you do with Silver Creek, which was recently built inside Kensington? Geographically, Keninsgton is much closer to BCC than the Woodward site.

Here's an idea, let Kensington kids go to it. We are walking distance to Silver Creek but will be bussed to Newport Mills. But, there is absolutely no change I'd send my kids to BCC and much prefer Einstein. Maybe BCC is better now but huge racial and other issues when I went there years ago.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not when the base structure cannot support building up. And, as mentioned previously, capacity always takes priority over modernization, because of safety. Just ask the Fire Marshall. And, it is not an either or proposition! Schools should be safe (not overcrowded) and modern. MC is supposedly one of the wealthiest in the country - why can't we all advocate for both?

We are no longer one of the wealthiest. We have huge poverty issues.

Out of 3,144 countiesin the US, Montgomery County is ranked #17 in both median household income and per capita income.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-income_counties_in_the_United_States

I’m not sure I would refer to the 2010 census. MoCo’s school poverty rate has skyrocketed. The next census will be quite different.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not when the base structure cannot support building up. And, as mentioned previously, capacity always takes priority over modernization, because of safety. Just ask the Fire Marshall. And, it is not an either or proposition! Schools should be safe (not overcrowded) and modern. MC is supposedly one of the wealthiest in the country - why can't we all advocate for both?

We are no longer one of the wealthiest. We have huge poverty issues.

Out of 3,144 countiesin the US, Montgomery County is ranked #17 in both median household income and per capita income.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-income_counties_in_the_United_States

I’m not sure I would refer to the 2010 census. MoCo’s school poverty rate has skyrocketed. The next census will be quite different.

It's increased, yes. But skyrocketed?

2009-10 FARMS rate: 29.3%

Current FARMS rate: 33.44%

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not when the base structure cannot support building up. And, as mentioned previously, capacity always takes priority over modernization, because of safety. Just ask the Fire Marshall. And, it is not an either or proposition! Schools should be safe (not overcrowded) and modern. MC is supposedly one of the wealthiest in the country - why can't we all advocate for both?

We are no longer one of the wealthiest. We have huge poverty issues.

Out of 3,144 countiesin the US, Montgomery County is ranked #17 in both median household income and per capita income.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-income_counties_in_the_United_States

I’m not sure I would refer to the 2010 census. MoCo’s school poverty rate has skyrocketed. The next census will be quite different.

Those data aren’t from the 2010 census, they’re from the 2016 American Community Survey, which is run every year on a probability-based sample of ~3m households if memory serves. It might have dropped a bit in three years. 2017 ACS is out and I think 2018 should be out shortly. Decennial census is very predictable based on extrapolation from ACS.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:BCC will definitely be less crowded since many of the students on its northern boundary will end up at Woodward.

count on it

I don’t see how MCPS avoids this. Development in BCC cluster is booming and can’t see how any future additionto BCC is possible

My guess is that if they need to shrink or alter the BCC zone, they will target neighborhoods/elementaries that feed into Westland, not the Silver Creek feeders. In the current climate, there's no way that MCPS will let a Bethesda HS become even *more* skewed in terms of racial/ethnic/SES demographics.

If this happens, pretty much everyone with kids living in current Westland feeders will move. The elementary schools in these areas have already been declining for years, and this will be the final nail in the coffin. This continued obsession with equality of outcomes and identity politics will eventually bankrupt the County. Northwest D.C. is rapidly becoming more attractive.

They'll likely move Westbrook to the Whitman cluster.

That would leave Pyle even more crazily overcrowded and leave Westland practically empty.

If anything, I think they'd move a feeder school OUT of Pyle/Whitman, perhaps Woodacres as one example. Pyle is on a tiny lot and has been having all kinds of problems due to overcrowding. They're putting on an addition, but it's to deal with the current size of the school, not to allow for more students. They won't be getting any more land.