Concerned about buying in WJ cluster because of re-zoning

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It won't be worse than QO. QO is still a solid school. Home prices will be under pressure for few years, but it will settle down eventually.

Woodward is scheduled to be open around 2022-2023. By then White Flint Mall will be redeveloped, Wheaton will continue to grow and developers of $1.5M+ homes who pilfered all the potential tear downs in Alta Vista and Wyngate will be almost entirely finished their northeast expansion through Kensington west of Connecticut and North Kensington. The $1.5M+ tear downs are already a thing west of Connecticut in Kensington now...imagine what it's going to be 5 years from now. Barring another major stock market / housing crash, if you buy anywhere in Kensington you'll be fine. Economic development and rising housing prices are not going to slow down because of high school reassignments.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It won't be worse than QO. QO is still a solid school. Home prices will be under pressure for few years, but it will settle down eventually.

Woodward is scheduled to be open around 2022-2023. By then White Flint Mall will be redeveloped, Wheaton will continue to grow and developers of $1.5M+ homes who pilfered all the potential tear downs in Alta Vista and Wyngate will be almost entirely finished their northeast expansion through Kensington west of Connecticut and North Kensington. The $1.5M+ tear downs are already a thing west of Connecticut in Kensington now...imagine what it's going to be 5 years from now. Barring another major stock market / housing crash, if you buy anywhere in Kensington you'll be fine. Economic development and rising housing prices are not going to slow down because of high school reassignments.

Boundary will be decided 18 months in advance. That means 2020-2021. No way white flint is getting built in 1-2 years and families will start living here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote: Boundary will be decided 18 months in advance. That means 2020-2021. No way white flint is getting built in 1-2 years and families will start living here.

Yeah unfortunately the White Flint redevelopment is moving at a snail’s pace. Hopefully they’ve broken ground by 2020, it won’t be done in a while.

With that being said, a cute house with a nice addition just sold for $932K in GPE so some buyers don’t seem to be too worried.

[Anonymous]

On the flip side, maybe it's a better bet to buy now in one of those neighborhoods that may be reassigned to Woodward, as those property values will inevitably increase as a result.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:On the flip side, maybe it's a better bet to buy now in one of those neighborhoods that may be reassigned to Woodward, as those property values will inevitably increase as a result.

I mean those areas like Randolph Hills, Holiday Park, or Rock Creek Palisades.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It won't be worse than QO. QO is still a solid school. Home prices will be under pressure for few years, but it will settle down eventually.

Woodward is scheduled to be open around 2022-2023. By then White Flint Mall will be redeveloped, Wheaton will continue to grow and developers of $1.5M+ homes who pilfered all the potential tear downs in Alta Vista and Wyngate will be almost entirely finished their northeast expansion through Kensington west of Connecticut and North Kensington. The $1.5M+ tear downs are already a thing west of Connecticut in Kensington now...imagine what it's going to be 5 years from now. Barring another major stock market / housing crash, if you buy anywhere in Kensington you'll be fine. Economic development and rising housing prices are not going to slow down because of high school reassignments.

Boundary will be decided 18 months in advance. That means 2020-2021. No way white flint is getting built in 1-2 years and families will start living here.

There will be construction of some kind at that site and it will be either Amazon or a town center like Pike and Rose. Either way it is going to increase home values in the area, especially Garret Park Estates.

I also forgot to add that the town center they're building where the Purple Line crosses Connecticut Avenue (Chevy Chase Lake) is going to have ripple effects in the area as well:

http://www.bethesdamagazine.com/Bethesda-Beat/2017/Chevy-Chase-Lake-Developers-Expect-to-Break-Ground-in-Spring-2018/

Kensington is situated between the White Flint Redevelopment, the Chevy Chase Lake development and an ever-expanding Wheaton area that is not going to get any cheaper. It's already impossible to find a SFH with more than 1,250 sq ft within a mile north of Bethesda Metro for less than $750,000. It's just going to get worse and people with HHI <$250K who want a SFH are going to be pushed out of all of Bethesda west of the park and inside the beltway in a few years. When that happens, Kensington and Garret Park Estates are the next to go because developers have no where else to push toward (areas with potential SFH tear downs). To say that home prices are going to drop because kids in these neighborhoods end up zoned for a 7/10 school rather than a 9/10 school is ridiculous. If that was the case homes in North Kensington, zoned for Einstein, wouldn't be going off the market in days for more than asking.

I actually agree with PP that if you're smart you'd buy in DCC neighborhoods that are going to go to Woodward, where you can still by SFHs for around $400k. They're next to flip after Kensington and Garret Park Estates.

[Anonymous]

To what I was saying about North Kensington homes flying off the market:

Pending in 5 days, $20k over listing:
https://www.redfin.com/MD/Silver-Spring/2511-Plyers-Mill-Rd-20902/home/11030497

Pending in 4 days, $9k over listing:
https://www.redfin.com/MD/Silver-Spring/2604-Plyers-Mill-Rd-20902/home/10982947

Pending in 4 days:
https://www.redfin.com/MD/Silver-Spring/2607-Plyers-Mill-Rd-20902/home/10994487

Pending in 5 days:
https://www.redfin.com/MD/Silver-Spring/2702-Plyers-Mill-Rd-20902/home/10993994

Pending in 4 days:
https://www.redfin.com/MD/Silver-Spring/10708-Saint-Margarets-Way-20902/home/11030292

Pending in 7 days:
https://www.redfin.com/MD/Kensington/2913-Peregoy-Dr-20895/home/11011946

That last house looks small and boxy, has an almost unusable back yard that slopes down toward the house and is pending for $620,000 even though it has barely 1,300 sq/ft of above ground space. Zoned for Einstein but walkable to Wheaton Mall and the local pool. Everything isn't about schools...

[Anonymous]

^^^

Loosely using North Kensington to refer to the area bounded by Georgia Ave, University, Connecticut and (around) Plyers Mill. Apologies to the official North Kensington peeps.

[Anonymous]

Wow. I live near the last house on the list (Peregoy) and am astounded it sold for so much. Kids on that street go to Rock View (although it's right at the dividing line for Oakland Terrace). If Rock View really did end up at Woodward that would mean kids in that neighborhood (part of Kensington Heights) might.

While it's nice to note the uptick in property values even without Woodward, for those of us who plan to stay put for a long time, it mainly only means higher property taxes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:for those of us who plan to stay put for a long time, it mainly only means higher property taxes.

Most people very happy to pay a couple hundred bucks a month extra over a period of years for hundreds of thousands of dollars in equity.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Am I the only one not concerned about this? We’re zoned for Garrett Park and I don’t really care whether we go to WJ or reopened Woodward. Looking at the surrounding area, it’s going to be a relatively well-off crowd in either case. It’s not like our HHI is going to change based on this decision. We’re well-off and my kid’s probably going to have scores reflecting that whichever school he goes to.

If you are in one of the nice big houses in Garret Park and see going to hold it for a long time I'm sure it's no big deal.

If you are in one of those tiny houses in Garret Park Estates, you need to ask yourself why your house costs $650k when they cost $350k in Randolph Hills? That difference seems ripe for arbitrage.

Now maybe Amazon will move to White Flint and everyone's home will boom. Who knows?

Randolph Hills is more like $425K.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Am I the only one not concerned about this? We’re zoned for Garrett Park and I don’t really care whether we go to WJ or reopened Woodward. Looking at the surrounding area, it’s going to be a relatively well-off crowd in either case. It’s not like our HHI is going to change based on this decision. We’re well-off and my kid’s probably going to have scores reflecting that whichever school he goes to.

If you are in one of the nice big houses in Garret Park and see going to hold it for a long time I'm sure it's no big deal.

If you are in one of those tiny houses in Garret Park Estates, you need to ask yourself why your house costs $650k when they cost $350k in Randolph Hills? That difference seems ripe for arbitrage.

Now maybe Amazon will move to White Flint and everyone's home will boom. Who knows?

Randolph Hills is more like $425K.

I see that now. Looks like $375 - $425 depending on size / condition. O think prices have risen since I was on the hunt (don't live there but considered it).

[Anonymous]

If you are concerned then don't buy in WJ cluster.

As some one indicated, smarter idea would be to buy just outside of WJ boundary and hope that it will be in Woodward.

No matter what boundary looks like, it will put pressure on pricing for few years for Woodward designated schools who are right no in WJ.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It won't be worse than QO. QO is still a solid school. Home prices will be under pressure for few years, but it will settle down eventually.

Woodward is scheduled to be open around 2022-2023. By then White Flint Mall will be redeveloped, Wheaton will continue to grow and developers of $1.5M+ homes who pilfered all the potential tear downs in Alta Vista and Wyngate will be almost entirely finished their northeast expansion through Kensington west of Connecticut and North Kensington. The $1.5M+ tear downs are already a thing west of Connecticut in Kensington now...imagine what it's going to be 5 years from now. Barring another major stock market / housing crash, if you buy anywhere in Kensington you'll be fine. Economic development and rising housing prices are not going to slow down because of high school reassignments.

Boundary will be decided 18 months in advance. That means 2020-2021. No way white flint is getting built in 1-2 years and families will start living here.

There will be construction of some kind at that site and it will be either Amazon or a town center like Pike and Rose. Either way it is going to increase home values in the area, especially Garret Park Estates.

I also forgot to add that the town center they're building where the Purple Line crosses Connecticut Avenue (Chevy Chase Lake) is going to have ripple effects in the area as well:

http://www.bethesdamagazine.com/Bethesda-Beat/2017/Chevy-Chase-Lake-Developers-Expect-to-Break-Ground-in-Spring-2018/

Kensington is situated between the White Flint Redevelopment, the Chevy Chase Lake development and an ever-expanding Wheaton area that is not going to get any cheaper. It's already impossible to find a SFH with more than 1,250 sq ft within a mile north of Bethesda Metro for less than $750,000. It's just going to get worse and people with HHI <$250K who want a SFH are going to be pushed out of all of Bethesda west of the park and inside the beltway in a few years. When that happens, Kensington and Garret Park Estates are the next to go because developers have no where else to push toward (areas with potential SFH tear downs). To say that home prices are going to drop because kids in these neighborhoods end up zoned for a 7/10 school rather than a 9/10 school is ridiculous. If that was the case homes in North Kensington, zoned for Einstein, wouldn't be going off the market in days for more than asking.

I actually agree with PP that if you're smart you'd buy in DCC neighborhoods that are going to go to Woodward, where you can still by SFHs for around $400k. They're next to flip after Kensington and Garret Park Estates.

THIS

[Anonymous]

I actually agree with PP that if you're smart you'd buy in DCC neighborhoods that are going to go to Woodward, where you can still by SFHs for around $400k. They're next to flip after Kensington and Garret Park Estates.

Possibly but I'd wait until the official announcement you don't want to guess wrong and be stuck at Einstein. Prices won't sky rocket overnight, it will take a year for prices to climb once the area gets out of the DCC.