Concerned about buying in WJ cluster because of re-zoning

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’m with you, PP! Pass the kool aid!

If you look at the DCC schools considered for the move, they are generally reasonably well performing already. These aren't the same as the areas around White Oak / Aspen Hill that most middle class folks won't touch. They are just actually income / racially diverse. And will be more popular when added to a brand spanking new high school with WJ folks.

Basically hopefully two more B-CC schools, along with new shiny office towers, walkable commercial areas and restaurants. Pike and Rose is already great and only going to expand, and is not choked with highways like Tysons. I'm way happier to be here than either hidden away from everyone in Potomac OR rolling the dice on a marginal townhouse in Petworth. We've got the best of both worlds here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m with you, PP! Pass the kool aid!

If you look at the DCC schools considered for the move, they are generally reasonably well performing already. These aren't the same as the areas around White Oak / Aspen Hill that most middle class folks won't touch. They are just actually income / racially diverse. And will be more popular when added to a brand spanking new high school with WJ folks.

Basically hopefully two more B-CC schools, along with new shiny office towers, walkable commercial areas and restaurants. Pike and Rose is already great and only going to expand, and is not choked with highways like Tysons. I'm way happier to be here than either hidden away from everyone in Potomac OR rolling the dice on a marginal townhouse in Petworth. We've got the best of both worlds here.

What do you mean by 2 more B-CC schools?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m with you, PP! Pass the kool aid!

If you look at the DCC schools considered for the move, they are generally reasonably well performing already. These aren't the same as the areas around White Oak / Aspen Hill that most middle class folks won't touch. They are just actually income / racially diverse. And will be more popular when added to a brand spanking new high school with WJ folks.

Basically hopefully two more B-CC schools, along with new shiny office towers, walkable commercial areas and restaurants. Pike and Rose is already great and only going to expand, and is not choked with highways like Tysons. I'm way happier to be here than either hidden away from everyone in Potomac OR rolling the dice on a marginal townhouse in Petworth. We've got the best of both worlds here.

What do you mean by 2 more B-CC schools?

I'm trying to speculate on what WJ and Woodward will be like long term. Right now WJ has less poorer / diverse kids than B-CC (but also less big $$$). WJ outperforms B-CC on the whole. That's probably going to change. But people buying into B-CC still know that the sky is the limit for a high achieving kid and the kids at the top of B-CC are running for Harvard / MIT just like their counterparts at Whitman and Churchill. Only the most obsessed pearl clutches would avoid B-CC based on test scores / FARMS alone.

I suppose I could have alluded to Quince Orchard as well but I chose B-CC b/c it would be more familiar to ppl around here and has cache b/c of location. Which hopefully will be the case for Woodward too as White Flint really starts to take shape.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m with you, PP! Pass the kool aid!

If you look at the DCC schools considered for the move, they are generally reasonably well performing already. These aren't the same as the areas around White Oak / Aspen Hill that most middle class folks won't touch. They are just actually income / racially diverse. And will be more popular when added to a brand spanking new high school with WJ folks.

Basically hopefully two more B-CC schools, along with new shiny office towers, walkable commercial areas and restaurants. Pike and Rose is already great and only going to expand, and is not choked with highways like Tysons. I'm way happier to be here than either hidden away from everyone in Potomac OR rolling the dice on a marginal townhouse in Petworth. We've got the best of both worlds here.

What do you mean by 2 more B-CC schools?

I'm trying to speculate on what WJ and Woodward will be like long term. Right now WJ has less poorer / diverse kids than B-CC (but also less big $$$). WJ outperforms B-CC on the whole. That's probably going to change. But people buying into B-CC still know that the sky is the limit for a high achieving kid and the kids at the top of B-CC are running for Harvard / MIT just like their counterparts at Whitman and Churchill. Only the most obsessed pearl clutches would avoid B-CC based on test scores / FARMS alone.

I suppose I could have alluded to Quince Orchard as well but I chose B-CC b/c it would be more familiar to ppl around here and has cache b/c of location. Which hopefully will be the case for Woodward too as White Flint really starts to take shape.

+1. I'd agree with this long-term. The Woodward/White Flint/North Bethesda area is much closer in than QO and will continue to be more likely associated with the areas that feed to WJ.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Am I the only one not concerned about this? We’re zoned for Garrett Park and I don’t really care whether we go to WJ or reopened Woodward. Looking at the surrounding area, it’s going to be a relatively well-off crowd in either case. It’s not like our HHI is going to change based on this decision. We’re well-off and my kid’s probably going to have scores reflecting that whichever school he goes to.

If you are in one of the nice big houses in Garret Park and see going to hold it for a long time I'm sure it's no big deal.

If you are in one of those tiny houses in Garret Park Estates, you need to ask yourself why your house costs $650k when they cost $350k in Randolph Hills? That difference seems ripe for arbitrage.

Now maybe Amazon will move to White Flint and everyone's home will boom. Who knows?

I’m in neither but I think you’re seriously exaggerating. A bunch of the Garrett Park Estates are tear downs turning into nice new construction that isn’t going to drop to $350K. The quality of Woodward is not going to be like Einstein. People need to calm down.

I do agree that combining few elementary schools from Einstein and few from WJ will not result in another Einstein. It will result in something between WJ and Einstein.

Right. So after all the dust settles, I bet we see Randolph Hills go up to $400-450 and Garrett Park Estates fall to $500-550k. Not catastrophic, but I would not pay $650k for one of those houses until the dust settles.

I'm not bring snobby. Id probably just buy in Randolph Hills and roll the dice -- can always move if things don't actually pan out.

I am sure Einstein is a fine school but as a Parkwood Resident who has a 400K mortgage on a 1m house that hasn't appreciated much, that we purchased with our own money and hardwork, the prospect of losing money on my house terrifies me.

lol

not a smart move

I don't know why people do this - being house poor.

no thank you

Um, what? I don’t know how long ago they bought but that’s a small mortgage for a $1m house. Not house poor at all.

Even if they bought more recently or had more of a mortgage, that doesn't necessarily make them house poor. That would depend on their income, about which PP didn't share info.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Geographically and logically, KP and GP ES will likely be zoned for Woodward. The question is whether Farmland and Luxmanor will be included too, because that area also used to attend Woodward before it closed. The presentations make it seem like Woodward will include a few Wheaton/Einstein ES to relieve DCC crowding. That leaves WJ with some open space to relieve some crowding at BCC and Whitman. If that's the case, the new WJ will probably be similar to the current WJ and Woodward will probably be similar to RM when they absorbed Ritchie Park in the 80's. Similarly-sized homes in Horizon Hill are slightly newer and have better layouts than those in Fox Hills West, but the prices are always off by 50-100k because FHW is zoned to Wootton. You can also see a similar pricing differential in Montgomery Square north (RM) and south (Churchill) of Montrose. Your best bet to stay at WJ would be Ashburton or Wyngate, but in the end, it's still a bet because nothing's official. Crapshoot.

I'm not sure how we're defining "geographically and logically," since this is all speculation. But it seems to me the most logical way to split the WJ feeder schools would be to have the schools feeding to NBMS (Ashburton, KP, and Wyngate) go on to WJ, and the schools feeding to Tilden (Farmland, GP, Luxmanor) go on to Woodward. Then add in one or two more contiguous elementaries from whichever direction needs the capacity relief.

Exactly, WJ and Woodward both will have 3 Elementary schools from current WJ boundary. each will pick up 2 more elementary schools. Woodward is pretty much guaranteed to pick 2 from DCC and WJ may pick on from DCC and one from BCC/Whitman. If you look at MCPS projections and BCC addition, most liekly case will be WJ also picking 2 elementary schools from BCC.

WJ should be NBMS (Ashburton, KP, and Wyngate) + 2 elementary schools from DCC
Woodward should be Tilden (Farmland, GP, Luxmanor) + 2 elementary schools from DCC.

Finally two people talking some sense. This will not affect Kensington because as these two posters have pointed out the elementary school in Kensington (Kensington Parkwood) is zoned for North Bethesda. They are not going to overcrowd Tilden by sending KP kids there and they are not going to send everyone from North Bethesda Middle School (where KP is zoned for) to Woodward. It wouldn't make any sense. If anything, KP could be rezoned for Silver Creek Middle School because it is smack dab in the middle of Kensington. That's a better possibility that splitting up KP kids after they go to NBMS to go to Woodward.

[Anonymous]

I'd also like to add that Garrett Park Estates is so much more expensive than its counterpart across the tracks because of its proximity to the Red Line and White Flint, which will be booming with development in several years (either with Amazon or a development that's rumored to be anchored by Wegman's). East of the park you aren't close to any such development...it's not just schools. The same applies to Kensington. The downtown and being able to walk to a grocery store, shops, restaurants, several gorgeous parks and the MARC are helping it as well as schools.

The difference between homes zoned for Oakland Terrace and KP is not that big anymore...they have houses on Plyers Mill with soaking tubs selling for all cash in several days:

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Silver-Spring/2604-Plyers-Mill-Rd-20902/home/10982947

You have "elevator ready" townhomes being built behind Wheaton Mall that are going to go on the market for close to $800,000, for starters:

http://www.opaldc.com/themanors

South Kensington and North Kensington, especially those areas that are walkable to Kensington's Antique Row, will always be desirable no matter whether they're in WJ, Woodward or even Einstein. The teardown are already creeping up from Parkwood across Connecticut and into North Kensington. If you can walk to any form of fixed rail (Metro or MARC) you'll be good because traffic is bad and will be even worse once Woodward opens up. Don't worry.

[Anonymous]

Wrong link on the Plyers Mill home:

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Silver-Spring/2604-Plyers-Mill-Rd-20902/home/10982947

[Anonymous]

And to highlight my point about schools not really mattering that much as long as you can walk to downtown Kensington and the MARC. This is around 3 blocks from the MARC, zoned for Oakland Terrace/Einstein and went pending in 5 days for $25,000 over listing:

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Kensington/3309-Fayette-Rd-20895/home/11013221

That house isn't even 1,000 sq/ft and sold for $475,000. Houses west of Connecticut in Parkwood aren't selling for much more for the same kind of house even though they're zoned for WJ. Real estate prices are more about proximity to amenities than schools, and being able to walk to fixed rail, stores and parks will always be a big selling point. ...Even if you're zoned for Einstein.

[Anonymous]

How valuable is walking to the MARC in Kensington? If you work at Union Station it is awesome. But if you have to get on metro, especially more than one line or far up the red line, I'm not sure it's that great an option. At that point, you can drive more quickly to most spots since Kensington isn't that far out. Plus the rigid MARC schedule is a major negative to people without pure 9-5 type jobs. (If you have to connect, you need lots of lead time going home, or if you miss it, it is half hour between trains.). You also have no benefit on the weekend.

I'm sure I adds some value, but it strikes me as a lot less valuable than metro.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:How valuable is walking to the MARC in Kensington? If you work at Union Station it is awesome. But if you have to get on metro, especially more than one line or far up the red line, I'm not sure it's that great an option. At that point, you can drive more quickly to most spots since Kensington isn't that far out. Plus the rigid MARC schedule is a major negative to people without pure 9-5 type jobs. (If you have to connect, you need lots of lead time going home, or if you miss it, it is half hour between trains.). You also have no benefit on the weekend.

I'm sure I adds some value, but it strikes me as a lot less valuable than metro.

There's no doubt it's less valuable than Metro, but is does matter. With the development in NoMA, Southwest Waterfront and around Union Station in the past several years there are a lot of jobs in the area. NoMA and Southwest Waterfront are both within a 30 minute walk from MARC. If you work anywhere within walking / biking distance of Union Station it's a much more pleasurable experience to take the MARC. You're virtually guaranteed a seat, can eat/drink and there are bathrooms. Also, with the advent of bike share and Uber Pool / Lyft Line it's a lot easier than it used to be to circumvent Metro.

Being walkable to a grocery store, post office, banks, restaurants, etc. is also not going to change if there's a change in school districts. There are not many places in the area with a park system as extensive, or as nice, as Kensington's (specifically east of Connecticut Ave).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How valuable is walking to the MARC in Kensington? If you work at Union Station it is awesome. But if you have to get on metro, especially more than one line or far up the red line, I'm not sure it's that great an option. At that point, you can drive more quickly to most spots since Kensington isn't that far out. Plus the rigid MARC schedule is a major negative to people without pure 9-5 type jobs. (If you have to connect, you need lots of lead time going home, or if you miss it, it is half hour between trains.). You also have no benefit on the weekend.

I'm sure I adds some value, but it strikes me as a lot less valuable than metro.

There's no doubt it's less valuable than Metro, but is does matter. With the development in NoMA, Southwest Waterfront and around Union Station in the past several years there are a lot of jobs in the area. NoMA and Southwest Waterfront are both within a 30 minute walk from MARC. If you work anywhere within walking / biking distance of Union Station it's a much more pleasurable experience to take the MARC. You're virtually guaranteed a seat, can eat/drink and there are bathrooms. Also, with the advent of bike share and Uber Pool / Lyft Line it's a lot easier than it used to be to circumvent Metro.

Being walkable to a grocery store, post office, banks, restaurants, etc. is also not going to change if there's a change in school districts. There are not many places in the area with a park system as extensive, or as nice, as Kensington's (specifically east of Connecticut Ave).

Very few people are going to be willing to walk 30 minutes each during their commute, especially when that doesn't even factor in the time to the train, waiting for the train, and on the train.

People might walk from MARC to a job in NOMA, but probably not SWW.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How valuable is walking to the MARC in Kensington? If you work at Union Station it is awesome. But if you have to get on metro, especially more than one line or far up the red line, I'm not sure it's that great an option. At that point, you can drive more quickly to most spots since Kensington isn't that far out. Plus the rigid MARC schedule is a major negative to people without pure 9-5 type jobs. (If you have to connect, you need lots of lead time going home, or if you miss it, it is half hour between trains.). You also have no benefit on the weekend.

I'm sure I adds some value, but it strikes me as a lot less valuable than metro.

There's no doubt it's less valuable than Metro, but is does matter. With the development in NoMA, Southwest Waterfront and around Union Station in the past several years there are a lot of jobs in the area. NoMA and Southwest Waterfront are both within a 30 minute walk from MARC. If you work anywhere within walking / biking distance of Union Station it's a much more pleasurable experience to take the MARC. You're virtually guaranteed a seat, can eat/drink and there are bathrooms. Also, with the advent of bike share and Uber Pool / Lyft Line it's a lot easier than it used to be to circumvent Metro.

Being walkable to a grocery store, post office, banks, restaurants, etc. is also not going to change if there's a change in school districts. There are not many places in the area with a park system as extensive, or as nice, as Kensington's (specifically east of Connecticut Ave).

Very few people are going to be willing to walk 30 minutes each during their commute, especially when that doesn't even factor in the time to the train, waiting for the train, and on the train.

People might walk from MARC to a job in NOMA, but probably not SWW.

There are plenty of people who bike after MARC. If you don't want to walk or bike it's 20 min from Kensington to Union Station and after that it's probably a 20 minute train ride to anywhere downtown (Metro Center is only 2 stops from there, and Red Line trains run every 4 minutes during rush hour). There are plenty of people who would kill for that commute.

[Anonymous]

It won't be worse than QO. QO is still a solid school. Home prices will be under pressure for few years, but it will settle down eventually.

[Anonymous]

Unless are in hurry, I will suggest waiting.