Concerned about buying in WJ cluster because of re-zoning

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Am I the only one not concerned about this? We’re zoned for Garrett Park and I don’t really care whether we go to WJ or reopened Woodward. Looking at the surrounding area, it’s going to be a relatively well-off crowd in either case. It’s not like our HHI is going to change based on this decision. We’re well-off and my kid’s probably going to have scores reflecting that whichever school he goes to.

If you are in one of the nice big houses in Garret Park and see going to hold it for a long time I'm sure it's no big deal.

If you are in one of those tiny houses in Garret Park Estates, you need to ask yourself why your house costs $650k when they cost $350k in Randolph Hills? That difference seems ripe for arbitrage.

Now maybe Amazon will move to White Flint and everyone's home will boom. Who knows?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:From what I've read Kensington, if anything, would get rezoned to the new Woodward High School that's planned to open in the next few years. If kids from Kensington-Parkwood are rezoned, kids from Garrett Park will be as well, and I doubt the high school will be a drop off academically from Walter Johnson.

Also, rezoning might actually work out for residents of Kensington proper. There's no reason to think that kids in Kensington-Parkwood wouldn't be rezoned for the middle school that just opened on Saul Road in Kensington (Silver Creek) and then on to Woodward.

But if you want to live in Kensington and not have to worry about being rezoned out of WJ, a surer bet would be to just search for homes in Kensington that are zoned for BCC.

Why do you think it won't drop? MCPS is not going to open Woodward with 2 WJ elementary schools in it. Woodward will have some elementary which are outside of WJ cluster right now. They will pull score down. If you don't believe me then simply take a look at test scores of nearby schools. I will be happy to be corrected.

What low-scoring ES do you think they'll be pulling from? Shiver? Rock Creek? Both of these are schools are within walking distance of Wheaton HS and Einstein HS, respectively. For the test scores and demographics to change dramatically, they'd have to bus kids from 2+ miles away, from areas that are extremely close to existing high schools. Why do you think that's a sure possibility?

The anticipated overcrowding at WJ is due to high-end developments that are being built, or scheduled to be built, along and around Rockville Pike. The kids that live in these developments are going to be living in $600k 2br condos or $1M+ townhomes, ie, not something that will have a negative affect on the atmosphere or test scores when kids from WJ go to Woodward. Moreover, rather than being a negative, it might be a positive. I think the test scores and atmosphere might be better considering these kids are going into a brand new school.

Also, as I said before, what makes anyone think that kids in Kensington proper won't be rezoned for Silver Creek when all this rezoning happens considering it is within a half mile of downtown Kensington? That is more likely than this alternate reality where housing prices in Kensington drop because everyone's kids are going to some 3/10 school at Woodward. Stop being alarmist. Montgomery County created a plan to revitalize Kensington and it's one of the nicest areas in the whole county. Why would they purposefully subvert economic development in a place they already earmarked for economic growth?

Rock Creek Forest? It's nowhere near Wheaton or Einstein

Pretty sure they meant Rock View, which is ~4 blocks from Einstein.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Geographically and logically, KP and GP ES will likely be zoned for Woodward. The question is whether Farmland and Luxmanor will be included too, because that area also used to attend Woodward before it closed. The presentations make it seem like Woodward will include a few Wheaton/Einstein ES to relieve DCC crowding. That leaves WJ with some open space to relieve some crowding at BCC and Whitman. If that's the case, the new WJ will probably be similar to the current WJ and Woodward will probably be similar to RM when they absorbed Ritchie Park in the 80's. Similarly-sized homes in Horizon Hill are slightly newer and have better layouts than those in Fox Hills West, but the prices are always off by 50-100k because FHW is zoned to Wootton. You can also see a similar pricing differential in Montgomery Square north (RM) and south (Churchill) of Montrose. Your best bet to stay at WJ would be Ashburton or Wyngate, but in the end, it's still a bet because nothing's official. Crapshoot.

I'm not sure how we're defining "geographically and logically," since this is all speculation. But it seems to me the most logical way to split the WJ feeder schools would be to have the schools feeding to NBMS (Ashburton, KP, and Wyngate) go on to WJ, and the schools feeding to Tilden (Farmland, GP, Luxmanor) go on to Woodward. Then add in one or two more contiguous elementaries from whichever direction needs the capacity relief.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Am I the only one not concerned about this? We’re zoned for Garrett Park and I don’t really care whether we go to WJ or reopened Woodward. Looking at the surrounding area, it’s going to be a relatively well-off crowd in either case. It’s not like our HHI is going to change based on this decision. We’re well-off and my kid’s probably going to have scores reflecting that whichever school he goes to.

If you are in one of the nice big houses in Garret Park and see going to hold it for a long time I'm sure it's no big deal.

If you are in one of those tiny houses in Garret Park Estates, you need to ask yourself why your house costs $650k when they cost $350k in Randolph Hills? That difference seems ripe for arbitrage.

Now maybe Amazon will move to White Flint and everyone's home will boom. Who knows?

I’m in neither but I think you’re seriously exaggerating. A bunch of the Garrett Park Estates are tear downs turning into nice new construction that isn’t going to drop to $350K. The quality of Woodward is not going to be like Einstein. People need to calm down.

[Anonymous]

Garrett Park Estates and nearby areas prices benefit from being walking distance to Grosvenor metro (and it’s a nice walk). That’s a big difference from Randolph Hills. It’s not all WJ cluster effects.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Geographically and logically, KP and GP ES will likely be zoned for Woodward. The question is whether Farmland and Luxmanor will be included too, because that area also used to attend Woodward before it closed. The presentations make it seem like Woodward will include a few Wheaton/Einstein ES to relieve DCC crowding. That leaves WJ with some open space to relieve some crowding at BCC and Whitman. If that's the case, the new WJ will probably be similar to the current WJ and Woodward will probably be similar to RM when they absorbed Ritchie Park in the 80's. Similarly-sized homes in Horizon Hill are slightly newer and have better layouts than those in Fox Hills West, but the prices are always off by 50-100k because FHW is zoned to Wootton. You can also see a similar pricing differential in Montgomery Square north (RM) and south (Churchill) of Montrose. Your best bet to stay at WJ would be Ashburton or Wyngate, but in the end, it's still a bet because nothing's official. Crapshoot.

I'm not sure how we're defining "geographically and logically," since this is all speculation. But it seems to me the most logical way to split the WJ feeder schools would be to have the schools feeding to NBMS (Ashburton, KP, and Wyngate) go on to WJ, and the schools feeding to Tilden (Farmland, GP, Luxmanor) go on to Woodward. Then add in one or two more contiguous elementaries from whichever direction needs the capacity relief.

Exactly, WJ and Woodward both will have 3 Elementary schools from current WJ boundary. each will pick up 2 more elementary schools. Woodward is pretty much guaranteed to pick 2 from DCC and WJ may pick on from DCC and one from BCC/Whitman. If you look at MCPS projections and BCC addition, most liekly case will be WJ also picking 2 elementary schools from BCC.

WJ should be NBMS (Ashburton, KP, and Wyngate) + 2 elementary schools from DCC
Woodward should be Tilden (Farmland, GP, Luxmanor) + 2 elementary schools from DCC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Am I the only one not concerned about this? We’re zoned for Garrett Park and I don’t really care whether we go to WJ or reopened Woodward. Looking at the surrounding area, it’s going to be a relatively well-off crowd in either case. It’s not like our HHI is going to change based on this decision. We’re well-off and my kid’s probably going to have scores reflecting that whichever school he goes to.

If you are in one of the nice big houses in Garret Park and see going to hold it for a long time I'm sure it's no big deal.

If you are in one of those tiny houses in Garret Park Estates, you need to ask yourself why your house costs $650k when they cost $350k in Randolph Hills? That difference seems ripe for arbitrage.

Now maybe Amazon will move to White Flint and everyone's home will boom. Who knows?

I’m in neither but I think you’re seriously exaggerating. A bunch of the Garrett Park Estates are tear downs turning into nice new construction that isn’t going to drop to $350K. The quality of Woodward is not going to be like Einstein. People need to calm down.

I do agree that combining few elementary schools from Einstein and few from WJ will not result in another Einstein. It will result in something between WJ and Einstein.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Garrett Park Estates and nearby areas prices benefit from being walking distance to Grosvenor metro (and it’s a nice walk). That’s a big difference from Randolph Hills. It’s not all WJ cluster effects.

Twinbrook elementary and many other are close walk to metro and yet cheaper. Simply due to not being in strong HS. It does play a part.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Garrett Park Estates and nearby areas prices benefit from being walking distance to Grosvenor metro (and it’s a nice walk). That’s a big difference from Randolph Hills. It’s not all WJ cluster effects.

Twinbrook elementary and many other are close walk to metro and yet cheaper. Simply due to not being in strong HS. It does play a part.

Because it gets cheaper the farther out you get from DC...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Garrett Park Estates and nearby areas prices benefit from being walking distance to Grosvenor metro (and it’s a nice walk). That’s a big difference from Randolph Hills. It’s not all WJ cluster effects.

Twinbrook elementary and many other are close walk to metro and yet cheaper. Simply due to not being in strong HS. It does play a part.

Because it gets cheaper the farther out you get from DC...

There are other elementary schools in RM cluster which are further out. Twinbrook is far cheaper even after being close to metro. Twinbrook being cheap is mainly due to having 70% FARMS rate. I live in Twinbrook.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Garrett Park Estates and nearby areas prices benefit from being walking distance to Grosvenor metro (and it’s a nice walk). That’s a big difference from Randolph Hills. It’s not all WJ cluster effects.

Twinbrook elementary and many other are close walk to metro and yet cheaper. Simply due to not being in strong HS. It does play a part.

Because it gets cheaper the farther out you get from DC...

There are other elementary schools in RM cluster which are further out. Twinbrook is far cheaper even after being close to metro. Twinbrook being cheap is mainly due to having 70% FARMS rate. I live in Twinbrook.

What's the FARMS rate range for DCC schools which are close to current WJ boundary? How do you find out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Garrett Park Estates and nearby areas prices benefit from being walking distance to Grosvenor metro (and it’s a nice walk). That’s a big difference from Randolph Hills. It’s not all WJ cluster effects.

Twinbrook elementary and many other are close walk to metro and yet cheaper. Simply due to not being in strong HS. It does play a part.

Because it gets cheaper the farther out you get from DC...

There are other elementary schools in RM cluster which are further out. Twinbrook is far cheaper even after being close to metro. Twinbrook being cheap is mainly due to having 70% FARMS rate. I live in Twinbrook.

What's the FARMS rate range for DCC schools which are close to current WJ boundary? How do you find out.

It's around 50-60%. You can look it up on MCPS website.

[Anonymous]

If TB was not part of RM, then RM will be closer to WJ. TB pulls down test scores for RM, but it gets balanced by magnet to some extent.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If TB was not part of RM, then RM will be closer to WJ. TB pulls down test scores for RM, but it gets balanced by magnet to some extent.

Magnets don’t balance anything, they just prevent a few middle class parents from feeling hopeless. The rest of the school is still depressed

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If TB was not part of RM, then RM will be closer to WJ. TB pulls down test scores for RM, but it gets balanced by magnet to some extent.

Magnets don’t balance anything, they just prevent a few middle class parents from feeling hopeless. The rest of the school is still depressed

Agree with this. If you are not in Magnet then peer group's test scores are below average in RM.