Waitlist Data Up

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most competitive seat is middle school charters EOTP. For 5th or 6th at below

For Latin, DCI spanish and DCI chinese this year, if you were on the waitlist, you had 0-4% chance of getting off.

DCI french 24%

Basis 32%.

Virtually impossible for Latin, spanish and chinese

Very competitive for French and Basis.

These numbers will only get less as each year goes by and more and more families will be totally shut out.

If you are looking at elementary schools and not considering the middle/high school feed, then you are a fool.

I will also say only at DCI and Latin can you sit back with a guaranteed decent high school and not have to scramble in the lottery again for high school.

This is a weird way to look at it. Most people care about the chances of getting an offer, either as an initial match or off the waitlist, not the chances of being waitlisted and getting off the waitlist.

From that perspective,
BASIS: 54%
Inspired Teaching (5): 19%
Latin 2nd St: 14%
Latin Cooper: 17%
Cap City: 55%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French: 24
DCI Spanish: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 33%
John Francis: 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 35%

Sibling preference still does bump some of those chances down, but it's not quite as dire as you've made it out to be.

Sibling preference is huge. Some schools, almost all the class or a huge percentage of the class are siblings.

Those numbers are not accurate because sibling preference is not accounted for. It is much lower.

It's lower, but not that much lower.

Same list but reflecting initial match or waitlist offer chances for students with no preference:
BASIS: 49%
Inspired Teaching (5): 11%
John Francis* (5): 66%
Latin 2nd St: 11%
Latin Cooper: 11%
Cap City (6): 53%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French*: 24
DCI Spanish*: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 31%
John Francis* (6): 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 31%

*No initial matches so we don't know preference of waitlist offers

This % perspective is weird and illogical. If there were another 100 people behind you on WL and you didn't get a seat, your chances didn't go up or down. Your chances of getting a seat are based largely on how many seats they offer because you need one seat and your chances of getting the #1 number are exactly the same as getting the last number.

I get the need to use these % as a coping mechanism but they don't really make any sense.

It's not a coping mechanism. It's for people in future years to have a better understanding of the historical likelihood of getting an offer at any given school. It's a way for people to better quantify risk and build a more informed and strategic lottery list.

I get that, I also obsessed over these percentages, but ultimately, every time I played the lottery, I based my list on pure preference.

Sometimes this meant putting schools with a higher acceptance percentage above schools with a lower acceptance percentage. I never regretted that, but it did feel weird bc those schools just drop off the list. So, often it meant leaving those schools off the list altogether.

The way I always did it is to strategize as if my kid gets a very good lottery number and then when they did not (they never have), we then can reorder the list if we want. Did you know you can continue to reorder the schools you are waitlisted on, even after you get an offer at one? We thought we would be in the situation of getting offers from two schools at the same time and asked the lottery hotline person, and she confirmed you can.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Here is the bottom line.

Of the 3 acceptable charters for middle school (Latin, DCI, and Basis), you really only have a shot at Basis.

The chances for DCI and Latin is like wining the powerball with sibling preferences.

End of story.

As to if Basis will be a good fit for your kid, that’s another story and risk you take.

The 5th/MS lottery isn't about an acceptable MS. There are other good MS options. The challenge is what one does for HS. Don't conflate MS quality with the challenge of a high school path.

Totally disagree. Middle school sets you up for high school. There are not many good middle school options for a high performing kid because there is no tracking.

I guess if you have an average kid then they can be at the top of the heap at many of these poorly performing schools.

If you goal is to just go to any middle school to get to a good high school, sorry but your goals are wrong and lopsided.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most competitive seat is middle school charters EOTP. For 5th or 6th at below

For Latin, DCI spanish and DCI chinese this year, if you were on the waitlist, you had 0-4% chance of getting off.

DCI french 24%

Basis 32%.

Virtually impossible for Latin, spanish and chinese

Very competitive for French and Basis.

These numbers will only get less as each year goes by and more and more families will be totally shut out.

If you are looking at elementary schools and not considering the middle/high school feed, then you are a fool.

I will also say only at DCI and Latin can you sit back with a guaranteed decent high school and not have to scramble in the lottery again for high school.

This is a weird way to look at it. Most people care about the chances of getting an offer, either as an initial match or off the waitlist, not the chances of being waitlisted and getting off the waitlist.

From that perspective,
BASIS: 54%
Inspired Teaching (5): 19%
Latin 2nd St: 14%
Latin Cooper: 17%
Cap City: 55%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French: 24
DCI Spanish: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 33%
John Francis: 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 35%

Sibling preference still does bump some of those chances down, but it's not quite as dire as you've made it out to be.

Sibling preference is huge. Some schools, almost all the class or a huge percentage of the class are siblings.

Those numbers are not accurate because sibling preference is not accounted for. It is much lower.

It's lower, but not that much lower.

Same list but reflecting initial match or waitlist offer chances for students with no preference:
BASIS: 49%
Inspired Teaching (5): 11%
John Francis* (5): 66%
Latin 2nd St: 11%
Latin Cooper: 11%
Cap City (6): 53%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French*: 24
DCI Spanish*: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 31%
John Francis* (6): 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 31%

*No initial matches so we don't know preference of waitlist offers

This % perspective is weird and illogical. If there were another 100 people behind you on WL and you didn't get a seat, your chances didn't go up or down. Your chances of getting a seat are based largely on how many seats they offer because you need one seat and your chances of getting the #1 number are exactly the same as getting the last number.

I get the need to use these % as a coping mechanism but they don't really make any sense.

It's not a coping mechanism. It's for people in future years to have a better understanding of the historical likelihood of getting an offer at any given school. It's a way for people to better quantify risk and build a more informed and strategic lottery list.

I get that, I also obsessed over these percentages, but ultimately, every time I played the lottery, I based my list on pure preference.

Sometimes this meant putting schools with a higher acceptance percentage above schools with a lower acceptance percentage. I never regretted that, but it did feel weird bc those schools just drop off the list. So, often it meant leaving those schools off the list altogether.

The way I always did it is to strategize as if my kid gets a very good lottery number and then when they did not (they never have), we then can reorder the list if we want. Did you know you can continue to reorder the schools you are waitlisted on, even after you get an offer at one? We thought we would be in the situation of getting offers from two schools at the same time and asked the lottery hotline person, and she confirmed you can.

This. You want to rank them by actual preference because if you get into a school in the lottery, you will be removed from contention for everything ranked below it.

So that means if your true first choice is Latin I or II, rank those first. It doesn't make sense to rank BASIS or or ITS or SH higher, because your odds of getting into those schools is higher, so if you get a good lottery number, you'll likely get a spot at your #1. If Latin is your actual preference, you'll have burned your good lottery number on your 2nd or 3rd choice school. It makes no sense.

And then if you are debating between two schools for your first choice, rank the one where you have the lesser chance of getting in higher. That way if you get into the other one, you'll still have preserved your chance of getting into the other (you'll be waitlisted).

[Anonymous]

The percentages are for a reality check so that you don't list only schools that are hard to get into.

[Anonymous]

The percentages indicate that a slight lower than average master number will probably get into Basis and for 6th grade last summer could get into Hardy. If you are a 4th grade family, it could be a good idea to assume you are relatively unlikely to get into Latin and spend some time this year specifically thinking about whether Basis makes sense for your child. If you are a 5th grade family, its not a bad idea to weigh your inbound against other options that are a longer commute from you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The percentages indicate that a slight lower than average master number will probably get into Basis and for 6th grade last summer could get into Hardy. If you are a 4th grade family, it could be a good idea to assume you are relatively unlikely to get into Latin and spend some time this year specifically thinking about whether Basis makes sense for your child. If you are a 5th grade family, its not a bad idea to weigh your inbound against other options that are a longer commute from you.

Sorry but McArthur is not an option so forget Hardy. It’s much easier to get into now because the feeder is doing so poorly. Plus commute is horrendous to WOTP.

If you are not thinking about high school feeder when ranking your middle school, that is a big mistake.

The best middle schools EOTP are the desirable charters which also gives you a high school path (DCI, Basis, Latin). Sure it’s competitive and odds are not great but there is still a chance. That should be your play and then you have a guarantee path. You can always deviate from that path in high school, it’s not fixed, but it is liberating to not have to deal with the lottery again in high school if things work out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most competitive seat is middle school charters EOTP. For 5th or 6th at below

For Latin, DCI spanish and DCI chinese this year, if you were on the waitlist, you had 0-4% chance of getting off.

DCI french 24%

Basis 32%.

Virtually impossible for Latin, spanish and chinese

Very competitive for French and Basis.

These numbers will only get less as each year goes by and more and more families will be totally shut out.

If you are looking at elementary schools and not considering the middle/high school feed, then you are a fool.

I will also say only at DCI and Latin can you sit back with a guaranteed decent high school and not have to scramble in the lottery again for high school.

This is a weird way to look at it. Most people care about the chances of getting an offer, either as an initial match or off the waitlist, not the chances of being waitlisted and getting off the waitlist.

From that perspective,
BASIS: 54%
Inspired Teaching (5): 19%
Latin 2nd St: 14%
Latin Cooper: 17%
Cap City: 55%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French: 24
DCI Spanish: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 33%
John Francis: 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 35%

Sibling preference still does bump some of those chances down, but it's not quite as dire as you've made it out to be.

Sibling preference is huge. Some schools, almost all the class or a huge percentage of the class are siblings.

Those numbers are not accurate because sibling preference is not accounted for. It is much lower.

It's lower, but not that much lower.

Same list but reflecting initial match or waitlist offer chances for students with no preference:
BASIS: 49%
Inspired Teaching (5): 11%
John Francis* (5): 66%
Latin 2nd St: 11%
Latin Cooper: 11%
Cap City (6): 53%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French*: 24
DCI Spanish*: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 31%
John Francis* (6): 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 31%

*No initial matches so we don't know preference of waitlist offers

This % perspective is weird and illogical. If there were another 100 people behind you on WL and you didn't get a seat, your chances didn't go up or down. Your chances of getting a seat are based largely on how many seats they offer because you need one seat and your chances of getting the #1 number are exactly the same as getting the last number.

I get the need to use these % as a coping mechanism but they don't really make any sense.

It's not a coping mechanism. It's for people in future years to have a better understanding of the historical likelihood of getting an offer at any given school. It's a way for people to better quantify risk and build a more informed and strategic lottery list.

I get that, I also obsessed over these percentages, but ultimately, every time I played the lottery, I based my list on pure preference.

Sometimes this meant putting schools with a higher acceptance percentage above schools with a lower acceptance percentage. I never regretted that, but it did feel weird bc those schools just drop off the list. So, often it meant leaving those schools off the list altogether.

The way I always did it is to strategize as if my kid gets a very good lottery number and then when they did not (they never have), we then can reorder the list if we want. Did you know you can continue to reorder the schools you are waitlisted on, even after you get an offer at one? We thought we would be in the situation of getting offers from two schools at the same time and asked the lottery hotline person, and she confirmed you can.

Oh yeah, this is useful. I reordered when I played the lottery for both kids and you can also add schools after the lottery -- your sibling can bring you up to the top of the list if needed.

Plenty of strategies out there. But, ultimately, I always ranked by preference, and then had one lucky year.

Re:BASIS and Latin, I think a good gut check is which do you prefer -- if you prefer BASIS (we did), don't even bother putting Latin on the list. If you prefer Latin, you will probably not be happy at BASIS and maybe don't need to rank that one. Most of happiest BASIS families I know preferred it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The percentages indicate that a slight lower than average master number will probably get into Basis and for 6th grade last summer could get into Hardy. If you are a 4th grade family, it could be a good idea to assume you are relatively unlikely to get into Latin and spend some time this year specifically thinking about whether Basis makes sense for your child. If you are a 5th grade family, its not a bad idea to weigh your inbound against other options that are a longer commute from you.

Sorry but McArthur is not an option so forget Hardy. It’s much easier to get into now because the feeder is doing so poorly. Plus commute is horrendous to WOTP.

If you are not thinking about high school feeder when ranking your middle school, that is a big mistake.

The best middle schools EOTP are the desirable charters which also gives you a high school path (DCI, Basis, Latin). Sure it’s competitive and odds are not great but there is still a chance. That should be your play and then you have a guarantee path. You can always deviate from that path in high school, it’s not fixed, but it is liberating to not have to deal with the lottery again in high school if things work out.

Hardy is definitely an option and MacArthur is doing just fine. You post on any thread you can find on how horrendous MacArthur is. It’s tiresome and not based on any fact whatsoever. I have an 8th grader at Hardy and we are planning on MacArthur and are very excited for it. As are other families we know.

We turned down a spot at BASIS for 5th to remain at our Hardy feeder and are very glad we did. Hardy has been fantastic.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The percentages are for a reality check so that you don't list only schools that are hard to get into.

Exactly. Or if you're really still only interested in the hard-to-get-into schools, a reality check that you're going to need a solid plan B, like moving or going private or lotterying for feeder elementaries earlier.

People should always list in order of preference. This isn't about that. It's about making sure your list includes the right mix of schools for your family's risk tolerance.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The percentages indicate that a slight lower than average master number will probably get into Basis and for 6th grade last summer could get into Hardy. If you are a 4th grade family, it could be a good idea to assume you are relatively unlikely to get into Latin and spend some time this year specifically thinking about whether Basis makes sense for your child. If you are a 5th grade family, its not a bad idea to weigh your inbound against other options that are a longer commute from you.

Sorry but McArthur is not an option so forget Hardy. It’s much easier to get into now because the feeder is doing so poorly. Plus commute is horrendous to WOTP.

If you are not thinking about high school feeder when ranking your middle school, that is a big mistake.

The best middle schools EOTP are the desirable charters which also gives you a high school path (DCI, Basis, Latin). Sure it’s competitive and odds are not great but there is still a chance. That should be your play and then you have a guarantee path. You can always deviate from that path in high school, it’s not fixed, but it is liberating to not have to deal with the lottery again in high school if things work out.

Hardy is definitely an option and MacArthur is doing just fine. You post on any thread you can find on how horrendous MacArthur is. It’s tiresome and not based on any fact whatsoever. I have an 8th grader at Hardy and we are planning on MacArthur and are very excited for it. As are other families we know.

We turned down a spot at BASIS for 5th to remain at our Hardy feeder and are very glad we did. Hardy has been fantastic.

+1. I have an 8th grader at Hardy as well and we are planning on MacArthur. Every kid we know there now likes it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The percentages indicate that a slight lower than average master number will probably get into Basis and for 6th grade last summer could get into Hardy. If you are a 4th grade family, it could be a good idea to assume you are relatively unlikely to get into Latin and spend some time this year specifically thinking about whether Basis makes sense for your child. If you are a 5th grade family, its not a bad idea to weigh your inbound against other options that are a longer commute from you.

Sorry but McArthur is not an option so forget Hardy. It’s much easier to get into now because the feeder is doing so poorly. Plus commute is horrendous to WOTP.

If you are not thinking about high school feeder when ranking your middle school, that is a big mistake.

The best middle schools EOTP are the desirable charters which also gives you a high school path (DCI, Basis, Latin). Sure it’s competitive and odds are not great but there is still a chance. That should be your play and then you have a guarantee path. You can always deviate from that path in high school, it’s not fixed, but it is liberating to not have to deal with the lottery again in high school if things work out.

Hardy is definitely an option and MacArthur is doing just fine. You post on any thread you can find on how horrendous MacArthur is. It’s tiresome and not based on any fact whatsoever. I have an 8th grader at Hardy and we are planning on MacArthur and are very excited for it. As are other families we know.

We turned down a spot at BASIS for 5th to remain at our Hardy feeder and are very glad we did. Hardy has been fantastic.

+1. I have an 8th grader at Hardy as well and we are planning on MacArthur. Every kid we know there now likes it.

MacArthur is such a new school, it's ridiculous to make sweeping generalizations saying it is "not an option." My child is at a Hardy feeder and we're excited for the pathway, as are many families we know.

[Anonymous]

The guaranteed high school path only really applies for Latin and DCI. Latin is now a true lottery for non-siblings and DCI is only close to a sure thing if you are coming from one of its elementary school feeders. Basis has a high school, but attrition by 9th is too high to count on that option as necessarily working for any individual incoming middle school student. I would personally pick Hardy over Basis every time if the commute is a similar distance.

[Anonymous]

MacArthur is a pretty okay option and fine to have as a realistic worst case scenario.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The percentages indicate that a slight lower than average master number will probably get into Basis and for 6th grade last summer could get into Hardy. If you are a 4th grade family, it could be a good idea to assume you are relatively unlikely to get into Latin and spend some time this year specifically thinking about whether Basis makes sense for your child. If you are a 5th grade family, its not a bad idea to weigh your inbound against other options that are a longer commute from you.

Sorry but McArthur is not an option so forget Hardy. It’s much easier to get into now because the feeder is doing so poorly. Plus commute is horrendous to WOTP.

If you are not thinking about high school feeder when ranking your middle school, that is a big mistake.

The best middle schools EOTP are the desirable charters which also gives you a high school path (DCI, Basis, Latin). Sure it’s competitive and odds are not great but there is still a chance. That should be your play and then you have a guarantee path. You can always deviate from that path in high school, it’s not fixed, but it is liberating to not have to deal with the lottery again in high school if things work out.

Hardy is definitely an option and MacArthur is doing just fine. You post on any thread you can find on how horrendous MacArthur is. It’s tiresome and not based on any fact whatsoever. I have an 8th grader at Hardy and we are planning on MacArthur and are very excited for it. As are other families we know.

We turned down a spot at BASIS for 5th to remain at our Hardy feeder and are very glad we did. Hardy has been fantastic.

+1. I have an 8th grader at Hardy as well and we are planning on MacArthur. Every kid we know there now likes it.

MacArthur is such a new school, it's ridiculous to make sweeping generalizations saying it is "not an option." My child is at a Hardy feeder and we're excited for the pathway, as are many families we know.

Title I?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The guaranteed high school path only really applies for Latin and DCI. Latin is now a true lottery for non-siblings and DCI is only close to a sure thing if you are coming from one of its elementary school feeders. Basis has a high school, but attrition by 9th is too high to count on that option as necessarily working for any individual incoming middle school student. I would personally pick Hardy over Basis every time if the commute is a similar distance.

Basis works fine for academically motivated kids.