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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Most competitive seat is middle school charters EOTP.  For 5th or 6th at below

For Latin, DCI spanish and DCI chinese this year, if you were on the waitlist, you had 0-4% chance of getting off.

DCI french 24%

Basis 32%.

Virtually impossible for Latin, spanish and chinese

Very competitive for French and Basis.

These numbers will only get less as each year goes by and more and more families will be totally shut out.

If you are looking at elementary schools and not considering the middle/high school feed, then you are a fool.

I will also say only at DCI and Latin can you sit back with a guaranteed decent high school and not have to scramble in the lottery again for high school.[/quote]

This is a weird way to look at it. Most people care about the chances of getting an offer, either as an initial match or off the waitlist, not the chances of being waitlisted and getting off the waitlist.

From that perspective, 
BASIS: 54%
Inspired Teaching (5): 19%
Latin 2nd St: 14%
Latin Cooper: 17%
Cap City: 55%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French: 24
DCI Spanish: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 33%
John Francis: 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 35%

Sibling preference still does bump some of those chances down, but it's not quite as dire as you've made it out to be. [/quote]

Sibling preference is huge.  Some schools, almost all the class or a huge percentage of the class are siblings.

Those numbers are not accurate because sibling preference is not accounted for. It is much lower. [/quote]

It's lower, but not that much lower.

Same list but reflecting initial match or waitlist offer chances for students with no preference: 
BASIS: 49%
Inspired Teaching (5): 11%
John Francis* (5): 66%
Latin 2nd St: 11%
Latin Cooper: 11%
Cap City (6): 53%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French*: 24
DCI Spanish*: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 31%
John Francis* (6): 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 31%

*No initial matches so we don't know preference of waitlist offers [/quote]

This % perspective is weird and illogical. If there were another 100 people behind you on WL and you didn't get a seat, your chances didn't go up or down. Your chances of getting a seat are based largely on how many seats they offer because you need one seat and your chances of getting the #1 number are exactly the same as getting the last number.

I get the need to use these % as a coping mechanism but they don't really make any sense. [/quote]

It's not a coping mechanism. It's for people in future years to have a better understanding of the historical likelihood of getting an offer at any given school. It's a way for people to better quantify risk and build a more informed and strategic lottery list.[/quote]

I get that, I also obsessed over these percentages, but ultimately, every time I played the lottery, I based my list on pure preference.

Sometimes this meant putting schools with a higher acceptance percentage above schools with a lower acceptance percentage. I never regretted that, but it did feel weird bc those schools just drop off the list. So, often it meant leaving those schools off the list altogether.[/quote]

The way I always did it is to strategize as if my kid gets a very good lottery number and then when they did not (they never have), we then can reorder the list if we want. Did you know you can continue to reorder the schools you are waitlisted on, even after you get an offer at one? We thought we would be in the situation of getting offers from two schools at the same time and asked the lottery hotline person, and she confirmed you can. [/quote]

This. You want to rank them by actual preference because if you get into a school in the lottery, you will be removed from contention for everything ranked below it.

So that means if your true first choice is Latin I or II, rank those first. It doesn't make sense to rank BASIS or or ITS or SH higher, because your odds of getting into those schools is higher, so if you get a good lottery number, you'll likely get a spot at your #1. If Latin is your actual preference, you'll have burned your good lottery number on your 2nd or 3rd choice school. It makes no sense.

And then if you are debating between two schools for your first choice, rank the one where you have the lesser chance of getting in higher. That way if you get into the other one, you'll still have preserved your chance of getting into the other (you'll be waitlisted). [/quote]

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