Waitlist Data Up

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Here is the bottom line.

Of the 3 acceptable charters for middle school (Latin, DCI, and Basis), you really only have a shot at Basis.

The chances for DCI and Latin is like wining the powerball with sibling preferences.

End of story.

As to if Basis will be a good fit for your kid, that’s another story and risk you take.

Expand your view.
My kid (and their friends) have had good experiences at Center City, ITS and Sojourner Truth for middle school.

ITS okay, but CC and SJ have incredibly low test scores (CC especially low in ELA, SJ better in ELA but especially low in math). And all three of these schools are teeny tiny, which means (1) not a lot of seats available, and (2) will be hard to find a cohort of high achieving kids when overall test scores are so low.

By middle school parents aren't merely looking for pleasant experience. They want to make sure their children will be prepared for HS academics with a pathway to college. This is alarmingly hard in DC.

+1. Such small schools will not have a good cohort of high achieving kids. In addition, they won’t have actual classes of high performing kids for separate tracking.p.

I will also add the negatives of such small schools are there is not the breath of curriculum, variety of courses, and many electives. Lastly, not much EC, clubs, and sports.

Fair on the latter, but Truth definitely has kids tracking in Algebra in 7th, Geometry in 8th, and puts kids in groups for ELA. So flyers are flying from our experience.

So they have an actual class of at least 20 kids in Algebra in 7th? What parameters do the use for placement of so?

Or what exactly do you mean by tracking?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Here is the bottom line.

Of the 3 acceptable charters for middle school (Latin, DCI, and Basis), you really only have a shot at Basis.

The chances for DCI and Latin is like wining the powerball with sibling preferences.

End of story.

As to if Basis will be a good fit for your kid, that’s another story and risk you take.

Expand your view.
My kid (and their friends) have had good experiences at Center City, ITS and Sojourner Truth for middle school.

ITS okay, but CC and SJ have incredibly low test scores (CC especially low in ELA, SJ better in ELA but especially low in math). And all three of these schools are teeny tiny, which means (1) not a lot of seats available, and (2) will be hard to find a cohort of high achieving kids when overall test scores are so low.

By middle school parents aren't merely looking for pleasant experience. They want to make sure their children will be prepared for HS academics with a pathway to college. This is alarmingly hard in DC.

+1. Such small schools will not have a good cohort of high achieving kids. In addition, they won’t have actual classes of high performing kids for separate tracking.p.

I will also add the negatives of such small schools are there is not the breath of curriculum, variety of courses, and many electives. Lastly, not much EC, clubs, and sports.

Fair on the latter, but Truth definitely has kids tracking in Algebra in 7th, Geometry in 8th, and puts kids in groups for ELA. So flyers are flying from our experience.

So they have an actual class of at least 20 kids in Algebra in 7th? What parameters do the use for placement of so?

Or what exactly do you mean by tracking?

There is no need to have 20.

I don't have a kid at Truth but I do have a kid at ITDS. Basically at ITDS they put all 8th graders in Algebra, and some 8th graders also take Geometry. The placement for Geometry is based on math performance in the prior year, there's no separate test just for this. There's also an "interview" to make sure the workload is well understood. Geometry is not a requirement, it's an option. ITDS typically has about 40 8th graders so obviously there wouldn't be 20 in Geometry. It's however many qualify and choose to take it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Here is the bottom line.

Of the 3 acceptable charters for middle school (Latin, DCI, and Basis), you really only have a shot at Basis.

The chances for DCI and Latin is like wining the powerball with sibling preferences.

End of story.

As to if Basis will be a good fit for your kid, that’s another story and risk you take.

Expand your view.
My kid (and their friends) have had good experiences at Center City, ITS and Sojourner Truth for middle school.

ITS okay, but CC and SJ have incredibly low test scores (CC especially low in ELA, SJ better in ELA but especially low in math). And all three of these schools are teeny tiny, which means (1) not a lot of seats available, and (2) will be hard to find a cohort of high achieving kids when overall test scores are so low.

By middle school parents aren't merely looking for pleasant experience. They want to make sure their children will be prepared for HS academics with a pathway to college. This is alarmingly hard in DC.

+1. Such small schools will not have a good cohort of high achieving kids. In addition, they won’t have actual classes of high performing kids for separate tracking.p.

I will also add the negatives of such small schools are there is not the breath of curriculum, variety of courses, and many electives. Lastly, not much EC, clubs, and sports.

Fair on the latter, but Truth definitely has kids tracking in Algebra in 7th, Geometry in 8th, and puts kids in groups for ELA. So flyers are flying from our experience.

So they have an actual class of at least 20 kids in Algebra in 7th? What parameters do the use for placement of so?

Or what exactly do you mean by tracking?

There is no need to have 20.

I don't have a kid at Truth but I do have a kid at ITDS. Basically at ITDS they put all 8th graders in Algebra, and some 8th graders also take Geometry. The placement for Geometry is based on math performance in the prior year, there's no separate test just for this. There's also an "interview" to make sure the workload is well understood. Geometry is not a requirement, it's an option. ITDS typically has about 40 8th graders so obviously there wouldn't be 20 in Geometry. It's however many qualify and choose to take it.

So you are talking about less than a handful of kids doing what? Algebra or geometry on their own? Since there is no class with teacher teaching it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Here is the bottom line.

Of the 3 acceptable charters for middle school (Latin, DCI, and Basis), you really only have a shot at Basis.

The chances for DCI and Latin is like wining the powerball with sibling preferences.

End of story.

As to if Basis will be a good fit for your kid, that’s another story and risk you take.

Expand your view.
My kid (and their friends) have had good experiences at Center City, ITS and Sojourner Truth for middle school.

ITS okay, but CC and SJ have incredibly low test scores (CC especially low in ELA, SJ better in ELA but especially low in math). And all three of these schools are teeny tiny, which means (1) not a lot of seats available, and (2) will be hard to find a cohort of high achieving kids when overall test scores are so low.

By middle school parents aren't merely looking for pleasant experience. They want to make sure their children will be prepared for HS academics with a pathway to college. This is alarmingly hard in DC.

+1. Such small schools will not have a good cohort of high achieving kids. In addition, they won’t have actual classes of high performing kids for separate tracking.p.

I will also add the negatives of such small schools are there is not the breath of curriculum, variety of courses, and many electives. Lastly, not much EC, clubs, and sports.

Fair on the latter, but Truth definitely has kids tracking in Algebra in 7th, Geometry in 8th, and puts kids in groups for ELA. So flyers are flying from our experience.

So they have an actual class of at least 20 kids in Algebra in 7th? What parameters do the use for placement of so?

Or what exactly do you mean by tracking?

There is no need to have 20.

I don't have a kid at Truth but I do have a kid at ITDS. Basically at ITDS they put all 8th graders in Algebra, and some 8th graders also take Geometry. The placement for Geometry is based on math performance in the prior year, there's no separate test just for this. There's also an "interview" to make sure the workload is well understood. Geometry is not a requirement, it's an option. ITDS typically has about 40 8th graders so obviously there wouldn't be 20 in Geometry. It's however many qualify and choose to take it.

So you are talking about less than a handful of kids doing what? Algebra or geometry on their own? Since there is no class with teacher teaching it.

There is a class for Algebra which is about 20 kids. There is a class for Geometry which has as many kids as qualify and opt in. Each class is taught by a teacher. There does not have to be 20 kids to have a class. There does not have to be 20 kids to have a teacher. Why are you thinking so rigidly about this? Try to be more flexible.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Here is the bottom line.

Of the 3 acceptable charters for middle school (Latin, DCI, and Basis), you really only have a shot at Basis.

The chances for DCI and Latin is like wining the powerball with sibling preferences.

End of story.

As to if Basis will be a good fit for your kid, that’s another story and risk you take.

Expand your view.
My kid (and their friends) have had good experiences at Center City, ITS and Sojourner Truth for middle school.

ITS okay, but CC and SJ have incredibly low test scores (CC especially low in ELA, SJ better in ELA but especially low in math). And all three of these schools are teeny tiny, which means (1) not a lot of seats available, and (2) will be hard to find a cohort of high achieving kids when overall test scores are so low.

By middle school parents aren't merely looking for pleasant experience. They want to make sure their children will be prepared for HS academics with a pathway to college. This is alarmingly hard in DC.

+1. Such small schools will not have a good cohort of high achieving kids. In addition, they won’t have actual classes of high performing kids for separate tracking.p.

I will also add the negatives of such small schools are there is not the breath of curriculum, variety of courses, and many electives. Lastly, not much EC, clubs, and sports.

Fair on the latter, but Truth definitely has kids tracking in Algebra in 7th, Geometry in 8th, and puts kids in groups for ELA. So flyers are flying from our experience.

So they have an actual class of at least 20 kids in Algebra in 7th? What parameters do the use for placement of so?

Or what exactly do you mean by tracking?

There is no need to have 20.

I don't have a kid at Truth but I do have a kid at ITDS. Basically at ITDS they put all 8th graders in Algebra, and some 8th graders also take Geometry. The placement for Geometry is based on math performance in the prior year, there's no separate test just for this. There's also an "interview" to make sure the workload is well understood. Geometry is not a requirement, it's an option. ITDS typically has about 40 8th graders so obviously there wouldn't be 20 in Geometry. It's however many qualify and choose to take it.

So you are talking about less than a handful of kids doing what? Algebra or geometry on their own? Since there is no class with teacher teaching it.

All 8th graders at ITDS take algebra (I think this is the 3rd cohort of "algebra for all"). It's the regular 8th grade math class, taught by a math teacher. As PP said, ITDS is also allowing some 8th graders to double up math and take geometry as well. Yes, with a teacher.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most competitive seat is middle school charters EOTP. For 5th or 6th at below

For Latin, DCI spanish and DCI chinese this year, if you were on the waitlist, you had 0-4% chance of getting off.

DCI french 24%

Basis 32%.

Virtually impossible for Latin, spanish and chinese

Very competitive for French and Basis.

These numbers will only get less as each year goes by and more and more families will be totally shut out.

If you are looking at elementary schools and not considering the middle/high school feed, then you are a fool.

I will also say only at DCI and Latin can you sit back with a guaranteed decent high school and not have to scramble in the lottery again for high school.

This is a weird way to look at it. Most people care about the chances of getting an offer, either as an initial match or off the waitlist, not the chances of being waitlisted and getting off the waitlist.

From that perspective,
BASIS: 54%
Inspired Teaching (5): 19%
Latin 2nd St: 14%
Latin Cooper: 17%
Cap City: 55%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French: 24
DCI Spanish: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 33%
John Francis: 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 35%

Sibling preference still does bump some of those chances down, but it's not quite as dire as you've made it out to be.

Sibling preference is huge. Some schools, almost all the class or a huge percentage of the class are siblings.

Those numbers are not accurate because sibling preference is not accounted for. It is much lower.

It's lower, but not that much lower.

Same list but reflecting initial match or waitlist offer chances for students with no preference:
BASIS: 49%
Inspired Teaching (5): 11%
John Francis* (5): 66%
Latin 2nd St: 11%
Latin Cooper: 11%
Cap City (6): 53%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French*: 24
DCI Spanish*: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 31%
John Francis* (6): 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 31%

*No initial matches so we don't know preference of waitlist offers

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Here is the bottom line.

Of the 3 acceptable charters for middle school (Latin, DCI, and Basis), you really only have a shot at Basis.

The chances for DCI and Latin is like wining the powerball with sibling preferences.

End of story.

As to if Basis will be a good fit for your kid, that’s another story and risk you take.

The 5th/MS lottery isn't about an acceptable MS. There are other good MS options. The challenge is what one does for HS. Don't conflate MS quality with the challenge of a high school path.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most competitive seat is middle school charters EOTP. For 5th or 6th at below

For Latin, DCI spanish and DCI chinese this year, if you were on the waitlist, you had 0-4% chance of getting off.

DCI french 24%

Basis 32%.

Virtually impossible for Latin, spanish and chinese

Very competitive for French and Basis.

These numbers will only get less as each year goes by and more and more families will be totally shut out.

If you are looking at elementary schools and not considering the middle/high school feed, then you are a fool.

I will also say only at DCI and Latin can you sit back with a guaranteed decent high school and not have to scramble in the lottery again for high school.

This is a weird way to look at it. Most people care about the chances of getting an offer, either as an initial match or off the waitlist, not the chances of being waitlisted and getting off the waitlist.

From that perspective,
BASIS: 54%
Inspired Teaching (5): 19%
Latin 2nd St: 14%
Latin Cooper: 17%
Cap City: 55%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French: 24
DCI Spanish: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 33%
John Francis: 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 35%

Sibling preference still does bump some of those chances down, but it's not quite as dire as you've made it out to be.

Sibling preference is huge. Some schools, almost all the class or a huge percentage of the class are siblings.

Those numbers are not accurate because sibling preference is not accounted for. It is much lower.

It's lower, but not that much lower.

Same list but reflecting initial match or waitlist offer chances for students with no preference:
BASIS: 49%
Inspired Teaching (5): 11%
John Francis* (5): 66%
Latin 2nd St: 11%
Latin Cooper: 11%
Cap City (6): 53%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French*: 24
DCI Spanish*: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 31%
John Francis* (6): 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 31%

*No initial matches so we don't know preference of waitlist offers

This % perspective is weird and illogical. If there were another 100 people behind you on WL and you didn't get a seat, your chances didn't go up or down. Your chances of getting a seat are based largely on how many seats they offer because you need one seat and your chances of getting the #1 number are exactly the same as getting the last number.

I get the need to use these % as a coping mechanism but they don't really make any sense.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most competitive seat is middle school charters EOTP. For 5th or 6th at below

For Latin, DCI spanish and DCI chinese this year, if you were on the waitlist, you had 0-4% chance of getting off.

DCI french 24%

Basis 32%.

Virtually impossible for Latin, spanish and chinese

Very competitive for French and Basis.

These numbers will only get less as each year goes by and more and more families will be totally shut out.

If you are looking at elementary schools and not considering the middle/high school feed, then you are a fool.

I will also say only at DCI and Latin can you sit back with a guaranteed decent high school and not have to scramble in the lottery again for high school.

This is a weird way to look at it. Most people care about the chances of getting an offer, either as an initial match or off the waitlist, not the chances of being waitlisted and getting off the waitlist.

From that perspective,
BASIS: 54%
Inspired Teaching (5): 19%
Latin 2nd St: 14%
Latin Cooper: 17%
Cap City: 55%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French: 24
DCI Spanish: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 33%
John Francis: 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 35%

Sibling preference still does bump some of those chances down, but it's not quite as dire as you've made it out to be.

Sibling preference is huge. Some schools, almost all the class or a huge percentage of the class are siblings.

Those numbers are not accurate because sibling preference is not accounted for. It is much lower.

It's lower, but not that much lower.

Same list but reflecting initial match or waitlist offer chances for students with no preference:
BASIS: 49%
Inspired Teaching (5): 11%
John Francis* (5): 66%
Latin 2nd St: 11%
Latin Cooper: 11%
Cap City (6): 53%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French*: 24
DCI Spanish*: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 31%
John Francis* (6): 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 31%

*No initial matches so we don't know preference of waitlist offers

This % perspective is weird and illogical. If there were another 100 people behind you on WL and you didn't get a seat, your chances didn't go up or down. Your chances of getting a seat are based largely on how many seats they offer because you need one seat and your chances of getting the #1 number are exactly the same as getting the last number.

I get the need to use these % as a coping mechanism but they don't really make any sense.

Yes.

Plus the BASIS stat is meaningless because the school isn’t a good fit for most kids and generally just attracts academic kids or desperate parents with bad in-bound options.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most competitive seat is middle school charters EOTP. For 5th or 6th at below

For Latin, DCI spanish and DCI chinese this year, if you were on the waitlist, you had 0-4% chance of getting off.

DCI french 24%

Basis 32%.

Virtually impossible for Latin, spanish and chinese

Very competitive for French and Basis.

These numbers will only get less as each year goes by and more and more families will be totally shut out.

If you are looking at elementary schools and not considering the middle/high school feed, then you are a fool.

I will also say only at DCI and Latin can you sit back with a guaranteed decent high school and not have to scramble in the lottery again for high school.

This is a weird way to look at it. Most people care about the chances of getting an offer, either as an initial match or off the waitlist, not the chances of being waitlisted and getting off the waitlist.

From that perspective,
BASIS: 54%
Inspired Teaching (5): 19%
Latin 2nd St: 14%
Latin Cooper: 17%
Cap City: 55%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French: 24
DCI Spanish: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 33%
John Francis: 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 35%

Sibling preference still does bump some of those chances down, but it's not quite as dire as you've made it out to be.

Sibling preference is huge. Some schools, almost all the class or a huge percentage of the class are siblings.

Those numbers are not accurate because sibling preference is not accounted for. It is much lower.

It's lower, but not that much lower.

Same list but reflecting initial match or waitlist offer chances for students with no preference:
BASIS: 49%
Inspired Teaching (5): 11%
John Francis* (5): 66%
Latin 2nd St: 11%
Latin Cooper: 11%
Cap City (6): 53%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French*: 24
DCI Spanish*: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 31%
John Francis* (6): 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 31%

*No initial matches so we don't know preference of waitlist offers

This % perspective is weird and illogical. If there were another 100 people behind you on WL and you didn't get a seat, your chances didn't go up or down. Your chances of getting a seat are based largely on how many seats they offer because you need one seat and your chances of getting the #1 number are exactly the same as getting the last number.

I get the need to use these % as a coping mechanism but they don't really make any sense.

I like them as a way of strategizing for a middling lottery number. I know what I'd want if I had a great number, but I want to fill out my list with some good-not-great options and then also be prepared for a bad number scenario. So these are very helpful.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most competitive seat is middle school charters EOTP. For 5th or 6th at below

For Latin, DCI spanish and DCI chinese this year, if you were on the waitlist, you had 0-4% chance of getting off.

DCI french 24%

Basis 32%.

Virtually impossible for Latin, spanish and chinese

Very competitive for French and Basis.

These numbers will only get less as each year goes by and more and more families will be totally shut out.

If you are looking at elementary schools and not considering the middle/high school feed, then you are a fool.

I will also say only at DCI and Latin can you sit back with a guaranteed decent high school and not have to scramble in the lottery again for high school.

This is a weird way to look at it. Most people care about the chances of getting an offer, either as an initial match or off the waitlist, not the chances of being waitlisted and getting off the waitlist.

From that perspective,
BASIS: 54%
Inspired Teaching (5): 19%
Latin 2nd St: 14%
Latin Cooper: 17%
Cap City: 55%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French: 24
DCI Spanish: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 33%
John Francis: 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 35%

Sibling preference still does bump some of those chances down, but it's not quite as dire as you've made it out to be.

Sibling preference is huge. Some schools, almost all the class or a huge percentage of the class are siblings.

Those numbers are not accurate because sibling preference is not accounted for. It is much lower.

It's lower, but not that much lower.

Same list but reflecting initial match or waitlist offer chances for students with no preference:
BASIS: 49%
Inspired Teaching (5): 11%
John Francis* (5): 66%
Latin 2nd St: 11%
Latin Cooper: 11%
Cap City (6): 53%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French*: 24
DCI Spanish*: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 31%
John Francis* (6): 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 31%

*No initial matches so we don't know preference of waitlist offers

This % perspective is weird and illogical. If there were another 100 people behind you on WL and you didn't get a seat, your chances didn't go up or down. Your chances of getting a seat are based largely on how many seats they offer because you need one seat and your chances of getting the #1 number are exactly the same as getting the last number.

I get the need to use these % as a coping mechanism but they don't really make any sense.

NP. No way. I think these percentage are the way to think about it. It's not about how long the waitlist is "behind" you - it's the chances that you are one of those kids. So if zero kids match, and then they take 20 kids from the waitlist and the waitlist is 100 people long - the question is, what are the chances that you're one of the 20 rather than one of the 80, so 20% chance of getting a seat.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most competitive seat is middle school charters EOTP. For 5th or 6th at below

For Latin, DCI spanish and DCI chinese this year, if you were on the waitlist, you had 0-4% chance of getting off.

DCI french 24%

Basis 32%.

Virtually impossible for Latin, spanish and chinese

Very competitive for French and Basis.

These numbers will only get less as each year goes by and more and more families will be totally shut out.

If you are looking at elementary schools and not considering the middle/high school feed, then you are a fool.

I will also say only at DCI and Latin can you sit back with a guaranteed decent high school and not have to scramble in the lottery again for high school.

This is a weird way to look at it. Most people care about the chances of getting an offer, either as an initial match or off the waitlist, not the chances of being waitlisted and getting off the waitlist.

From that perspective,
BASIS: 54%
Inspired Teaching (5): 19%
Latin 2nd St: 14%
Latin Cooper: 17%
Cap City: 55%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French: 24
DCI Spanish: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 33%
John Francis: 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 35%

Sibling preference still does bump some of those chances down, but it's not quite as dire as you've made it out to be.

Sibling preference is huge. Some schools, almost all the class or a huge percentage of the class are siblings.

Those numbers are not accurate because sibling preference is not accounted for. It is much lower.

It's lower, but not that much lower.

Same list but reflecting initial match or waitlist offer chances for students with no preference:
BASIS: 49%
Inspired Teaching (5): 11%
John Francis* (5): 66%
Latin 2nd St: 11%
Latin Cooper: 11%
Cap City (6): 53%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French*: 24
DCI Spanish*: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 31%
John Francis* (6): 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 31%

*No initial matches so we don't know preference of waitlist offers

This % perspective is weird and illogical. If there were another 100 people behind you on WL and you didn't get a seat, your chances didn't go up or down. Your chances of getting a seat are based largely on how many seats they offer because you need one seat and your chances of getting the #1 number are exactly the same as getting the last number.

I get the need to use these % as a coping mechanism but they don't really make any sense.

NP. No way. I think these percentage are the way to think about it. It's not about how long the waitlist is "behind" you - it's the chances that you are one of those kids. So if zero kids match, and then they take 20 kids from the waitlist and the waitlist is 100 people long - the question is, what are the chances that you're one of the 20 rather than one of the 80, so 20% chance of getting a seat.

Yes - how could chances of acceptance not be a good way of thinking of it?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most competitive seat is middle school charters EOTP. For 5th or 6th at below

For Latin, DCI spanish and DCI chinese this year, if you were on the waitlist, you had 0-4% chance of getting off.

DCI french 24%

Basis 32%.

Virtually impossible for Latin, spanish and chinese

Very competitive for French and Basis.

These numbers will only get less as each year goes by and more and more families will be totally shut out.

If you are looking at elementary schools and not considering the middle/high school feed, then you are a fool.

I will also say only at DCI and Latin can you sit back with a guaranteed decent high school and not have to scramble in the lottery again for high school.

This is a weird way to look at it. Most people care about the chances of getting an offer, either as an initial match or off the waitlist, not the chances of being waitlisted and getting off the waitlist.

From that perspective,
BASIS: 54%
Inspired Teaching (5): 19%
Latin 2nd St: 14%
Latin Cooper: 17%
Cap City: 55%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French: 24
DCI Spanish: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 33%
John Francis: 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 35%

Sibling preference still does bump some of those chances down, but it's not quite as dire as you've made it out to be.

Sibling preference is huge. Some schools, almost all the class or a huge percentage of the class are siblings.

Those numbers are not accurate because sibling preference is not accounted for. It is much lower.

It's lower, but not that much lower.

Same list but reflecting initial match or waitlist offer chances for students with no preference:
BASIS: 49%
Inspired Teaching (5): 11%
John Francis* (5): 66%
Latin 2nd St: 11%
Latin Cooper: 11%
Cap City (6): 53%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French*: 24
DCI Spanish*: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 31%
John Francis* (6): 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 31%

*No initial matches so we don't know preference of waitlist offers

This % perspective is weird and illogical. If there were another 100 people behind you on WL and you didn't get a seat, your chances didn't go up or down. Your chances of getting a seat are based largely on how many seats they offer because you need one seat and your chances of getting the #1 number are exactly the same as getting the last number.

I get the need to use these % as a coping mechanism but they don't really make any sense.

Yes.

Plus the BASIS stat is meaningless because the school isn’t a good fit for most kids and generally just attracts academic kids or desperate parents with bad in-bound options.

How does that render the Basis stat any more meaningless than the others?

And what’s wrong with “academic” kids (not that Basis is right for all such kids)?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most competitive seat is middle school charters EOTP. For 5th or 6th at below

For Latin, DCI spanish and DCI chinese this year, if you were on the waitlist, you had 0-4% chance of getting off.

DCI french 24%

Basis 32%.

Virtually impossible for Latin, spanish and chinese

Very competitive for French and Basis.

These numbers will only get less as each year goes by and more and more families will be totally shut out.

If you are looking at elementary schools and not considering the middle/high school feed, then you are a fool.

I will also say only at DCI and Latin can you sit back with a guaranteed decent high school and not have to scramble in the lottery again for high school.

This is a weird way to look at it. Most people care about the chances of getting an offer, either as an initial match or off the waitlist, not the chances of being waitlisted and getting off the waitlist.

From that perspective,
BASIS: 54%
Inspired Teaching (5): 19%
Latin 2nd St: 14%
Latin Cooper: 17%
Cap City: 55%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French: 24
DCI Spanish: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 33%
John Francis: 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 35%

Sibling preference still does bump some of those chances down, but it's not quite as dire as you've made it out to be.

Sibling preference is huge. Some schools, almost all the class or a huge percentage of the class are siblings.

Those numbers are not accurate because sibling preference is not accounted for. It is much lower.

It's lower, but not that much lower.

Same list but reflecting initial match or waitlist offer chances for students with no preference:
BASIS: 49%
Inspired Teaching (5): 11%
John Francis* (5): 66%
Latin 2nd St: 11%
Latin Cooper: 11%
Cap City (6): 53%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French*: 24
DCI Spanish*: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 31%
John Francis* (6): 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 31%

*No initial matches so we don't know preference of waitlist offers

This % perspective is weird and illogical. If there were another 100 people behind you on WL and you didn't get a seat, your chances didn't go up or down. Your chances of getting a seat are based largely on how many seats they offer because you need one seat and your chances of getting the #1 number are exactly the same as getting the last number.

I get the need to use these % as a coping mechanism but they don't really make any sense.

It's not a coping mechanism. It's for people in future years to have a better understanding of the historical likelihood of getting an offer at any given school. It's a way for people to better quantify risk and build a more informed and strategic lottery list.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most competitive seat is middle school charters EOTP. For 5th or 6th at below

For Latin, DCI spanish and DCI chinese this year, if you were on the waitlist, you had 0-4% chance of getting off.

DCI french 24%

Basis 32%.

Virtually impossible for Latin, spanish and chinese

Very competitive for French and Basis.

These numbers will only get less as each year goes by and more and more families will be totally shut out.

If you are looking at elementary schools and not considering the middle/high school feed, then you are a fool.

I will also say only at DCI and Latin can you sit back with a guaranteed decent high school and not have to scramble in the lottery again for high school.

This is a weird way to look at it. Most people care about the chances of getting an offer, either as an initial match or off the waitlist, not the chances of being waitlisted and getting off the waitlist.

From that perspective,
BASIS: 54%
Inspired Teaching (5): 19%
Latin 2nd St: 14%
Latin Cooper: 17%
Cap City: 55%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French: 24
DCI Spanish: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 33%
John Francis: 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 35%

Sibling preference still does bump some of those chances down, but it's not quite as dire as you've made it out to be.

Sibling preference is huge. Some schools, almost all the class or a huge percentage of the class are siblings.

Those numbers are not accurate because sibling preference is not accounted for. It is much lower.

It's lower, but not that much lower.

Same list but reflecting initial match or waitlist offer chances for students with no preference:
BASIS: 49%
Inspired Teaching (5): 11%
John Francis* (5): 66%
Latin 2nd St: 11%
Latin Cooper: 11%
Cap City (6): 53%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French*: 24
DCI Spanish*: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 31%
John Francis* (6): 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 31%

*No initial matches so we don't know preference of waitlist offers

This % perspective is weird and illogical. If there were another 100 people behind you on WL and you didn't get a seat, your chances didn't go up or down. Your chances of getting a seat are based largely on how many seats they offer because you need one seat and your chances of getting the #1 number are exactly the same as getting the last number.

I get the need to use these % as a coping mechanism but they don't really make any sense.

It's not a coping mechanism. It's for people in future years to have a better understanding of the historical likelihood of getting an offer at any given school. It's a way for people to better quantify risk and build a more informed and strategic lottery list.

I get that, I also obsessed over these percentages, but ultimately, every time I played the lottery, I based my list on pure preference.

Sometimes this meant putting schools with a higher acceptance percentage above schools with a lower acceptance percentage. I never regretted that, but it did feel weird bc those schools just drop off the list. So, often it meant leaving those schools off the list altogether.