Waitlist Data Up

[Anonymous]

Most competitive seat is middle school charters EOTP. For 5th or 6th at below

For Latin, DCI spanish and DCI chinese this year, if you were on the waitlist, you had 0-4% chance of getting off.

DCI french 24%

Basis 32%.

Virtually impossible for Latin, spanish and chinese

Very competitive for French and Basis.

These numbers will only get less as each year goes by and more and more families will be totally shut out.

If you are looking at elementary schools and not considering the middle/high school feed, then you are a fool.

I will also say only at DCI and Latin can you sit back with a guaranteed decent high school and not have to scramble in the lottery again for high school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:ITDS didn't move at all for 5th. Wow. It did move for 6th though.

Sounds like they are accurately accepting the right number of kids in the initial lottery, because I know that there were several new faces in the fifth grade this year.

Yes, there were some new kids, not a ton. So many ITDS kids went to Latin Cooper the first year Cooper opened, there's kind of a sibling echo of that.

They had 15 seats for 5th so there were more than a few new kids. That means they lost about 30% of the kids after 4th grade. Same thing with 5th, where they lost 30% of the class since there were 15 seats for 6th.

That is a significant number of kids not staying for middle school.

No, they over-fill in the initial lottery and then not all kids accept. I have a kid in that cohort and there certainly are not 15 new kids. That level of attrition happened when Cooper first opened but not since then.

No idea what you are talking about. The data is right there. They had 15 seats for 5th and filled those 15 seats with the match.

Same for 6th. 15 seats open and filled 15 seats on result day.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:ITDS didn't move at all for 5th. Wow. It did move for 6th though.

Sounds like they are accurately accepting the right number of kids in the initial lottery, because I know that there were several new faces in the fifth grade this year.

Yes, there were some new kids, not a ton. So many ITDS kids went to Latin Cooper the first year Cooper opened, there's kind of a sibling echo of that.

They had 15 seats for 5th so there were more than a few new kids. That means they lost about 30% of the kids after 4th grade. Same thing with 5th, where they lost 30% of the class since there were 15 seats for 6th.

That is a significant number of kids not staying for middle school.

No, they over-fill in the initial lottery and then not all kids accept. I have a kid in that cohort and there certainly are not 15 new kids. That level of attrition happened when Cooper first opened but not since then.

No idea what you are talking about. The data is right there. They had 15 seats for 5th and filled those 15 seats with the match.

Same for 6th. 15 seats open and filled 15 seats on result day.

So, schools are allowed to choose how many seats to offer. They're allowed to offer more seats than they typically have vacancies, on the assumption that not everyone offered a seat will accept. ITDS chose to offer 15 seats for 5th grade, and 15 kids matched, but there were not 15 new kids because not all 15 accepted their seats.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:ITDS didn't move at all for 5th. Wow. It did move for 6th though.

Sounds like they are accurately accepting the right number of kids in the initial lottery, because I know that there were several new faces in the fifth grade this year.

Yes, there were some new kids, not a ton. So many ITDS kids went to Latin Cooper the first year Cooper opened, there's kind of a sibling echo of that.

They had 15 seats for 5th so there were more than a few new kids. That means they lost about 30% of the kids after 4th grade. Same thing with 5th, where they lost 30% of the class since there were 15 seats for 6th.

That is a significant number of kids not staying for middle school.

No, they over-fill in the initial lottery and then not all kids accept. I have a kid in that cohort and there certainly are not 15 new kids. That level of attrition happened when Cooper first opened but not since then.

No idea what you are talking about. The data is right there. They had 15 seats for 5th and filled those 15 seats with the match.

Same for 6th. 15 seats open and filled 15 seats on result day.

So, schools are allowed to choose how many seats to offer. They're allowed to offer more seats than they typically have vacancies, on the assumption that not everyone offered a seat will accept. ITDS chose to offer 15 seats for 5th grade, and 15 kids matched, but there were not 15 new kids because not all 15 accepted their seats.

What proof do you have that they do this? That is not how the lottery works.

Also your premise does not work because you can see that the waitlist did move for 6th.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ludlow-Taylor waitlists didn't move at all, with the exception of PK and a single October offer for 4th grade. Recalling people saying that's related to ongoing construction?

Meanwhile, Brent made 3x the number of offers it did last year. Bussing to Columbia Heights definitely not appealing to people.

L-T has about 20 more kids than last year even without the WL movement. Classes are bigger than they’ve ever been. DCPS is forcing them to offer too many slots in the lottery. 3rd grade has 24 kids in every class; construction or no construction, they weren’t taking in the lottery except for maybe in 2nd where they added a class to meet demand so could have take more kids. Assuming they’re trying to get back to 3 classes next year so decided to stay with 19/class.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ludlow-Taylor waitlists didn't move at all, with the exception of PK and a single October offer for 4th grade. Recalling people saying that's related to ongoing construction?

Meanwhile, Brent made 3x the number of offers it did last year. Bussing to Columbia Heights definitely not appealing to people.

Yes regarding L-T. Construction that was supposed to be done before school started in August was not even up out of the ground at that point. They now claim it will be done before kids are back in the building after winter break. I remain skeptical. Glad they didn't overextend with offers in this environment. Next year will likely be a different story once the school can spread out into the new space (though don't expect them to suddenly add a ton of seats, I just think there will be more cushion on the margins).

Not surprised about Brent though we don't know any Brent families who left this year. I am betting they just burned through waitlists when offers were made and they had to clearly disclose the swing space situation. I recall we were in a similar boat with an offer to CHML when they were renovating and it was the same thing -- we were one of many families who turned it down because we didn't want to commit to busing our then-3 yo kid across town daily.

L-T has about 20 more kids than last year even without the WL movement. Classes are bigger than they’ve ever been. DCPS is forcing them to offer too many slots in the lottery. 3rd grade has 24 kids in every class; construction or no construction, they weren’t taking in the lottery except for maybe in 2nd where they added a class to meet demand so could have take more kids. Assuming they’re trying to get back to 3 classes next year so decided to stay with 19/class.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Most competitive seat is middle school charters EOTP. For 5th or 6th at below

For Latin, DCI spanish and DCI chinese this year, if you were on the waitlist, you had 0-4% chance of getting off.

DCI french 24%

Basis 32%.

Virtually impossible for Latin, spanish and chinese

Very competitive for French and Basis.

These numbers will only get less as each year goes by and more and more families will be totally shut out.

If you are looking at elementary schools and not considering the middle/high school feed, then you are a fool.

I will also say only at DCI and Latin can you sit back with a guaranteed decent high school and not have to scramble in the lottery again for high school.

This is a weird way to look at it. Most people care about the chances of getting an offer, either as an initial match or off the waitlist, not the chances of being waitlisted and getting off the waitlist.

From that perspective,
BASIS: 54%
Inspired Teaching (5): 19%
Latin 2nd St: 14%
Latin Cooper: 17%
Cap City: 55%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French: 24
DCI Spanish: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 33%
John Francis: 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 35%

Sibling preference still does bump some of those chances down, but it's not quite as dire as you've made it out to be.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Most competitive seat is middle school charters EOTP. For 5th or 6th at below

For Latin, DCI spanish and DCI chinese this year, if you were on the waitlist, you had 0-4% chance of getting off.

DCI french 24%

Basis 32%.

Virtually impossible for Latin, spanish and chinese

Very competitive for French and Basis.

These numbers will only get less as each year goes by and more and more families will be totally shut out.

If you are looking at elementary schools and not considering the middle/high school feed, then you are a fool.

I will also say only at DCI and Latin can you sit back with a guaranteed decent high school and not have to scramble in the lottery again for high school.

BASIS too

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:ITDS didn't move at all for 5th. Wow. It did move for 6th though.

Sounds like they are accurately accepting the right number of kids in the initial lottery, because I know that there were several new faces in the fifth grade this year.

Yes, there were some new kids, not a ton. So many ITDS kids went to Latin Cooper the first year Cooper opened, there's kind of a sibling echo of that.

They had 15 seats for 5th so there were more than a few new kids. That means they lost about 30% of the kids after 4th grade. Same thing with 5th, where they lost 30% of the class since there were 15 seats for 6th.

That is a significant number of kids not staying for middle school.

No, they over-fill in the initial lottery and then not all kids accept. I have a kid in that cohort and there certainly are not 15 new kids. That level of attrition happened when Cooper first opened but not since then.

No idea what you are talking about. The data is right there. They had 15 seats for 5th and filled those 15 seats with the match.

Same for 6th. 15 seats open and filled 15 seats on result day.

So, schools are allowed to choose how many seats to offer. They're allowed to offer more seats than they typically have vacancies, on the assumption that not everyone offered a seat will accept. ITDS chose to offer 15 seats for 5th grade, and 15 kids matched, but there were not 15 new kids because not all 15 accepted their seats.

What proof do you have that they do this? That is not how the lottery works.

Also your premise does not work because you can see that the waitlist did move for 6th.

It is exactly how the lottery works, and my proof is that I have kids there and I know the kids and have the class roster to compare with last year's roster from 4th grade. I can count the names that are the same.

For 6th, they did move the waitlist, either because of people leaving or people not accepting offers at a higher rate than expected. My premise is consistent with that. 5th is easier to predict because that's when siblings of Latin students leave and they very consistently do. ITDS is a small school and people know who has siblings at other schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most competitive seat is middle school charters EOTP. For 5th or 6th at below

For Latin, DCI spanish and DCI chinese this year, if you were on the waitlist, you had 0-4% chance of getting off.

DCI french 24%

Basis 32%.

Virtually impossible for Latin, spanish and chinese

Very competitive for French and Basis.

These numbers will only get less as each year goes by and more and more families will be totally shut out.

If you are looking at elementary schools and not considering the middle/high school feed, then you are a fool.

I will also say only at DCI and Latin can you sit back with a guaranteed decent high school and not have to scramble in the lottery again for high school.

This is a weird way to look at it. Most people care about the chances of getting an offer, either as an initial match or off the waitlist, not the chances of being waitlisted and getting off the waitlist.

From that perspective,
BASIS: 54%
Inspired Teaching (5): 19%
Latin 2nd St: 14%
Latin Cooper: 17%
Cap City: 55%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French: 24
DCI Spanish: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 33%
John Francis: 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 35%

Sibling preference still does bump some of those chances down, but it's not quite as dire as you've made it out to be.

Wrong. Your chance of getting a match is low at the desirable middle school charters.

Once you struck out and are on tje waitlist then those chances change a lot and you chances are much smaller.

It is like 2 “lotteries”.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most competitive seat is middle school charters EOTP. For 5th or 6th at below

For Latin, DCI spanish and DCI chinese this year, if you were on the waitlist, you had 0-4% chance of getting off.

DCI french 24%

Basis 32%.

Virtually impossible for Latin, spanish and chinese

Very competitive for French and Basis.

These numbers will only get less as each year goes by and more and more families will be totally shut out.

If you are looking at elementary schools and not considering the middle/high school feed, then you are a fool.

I will also say only at DCI and Latin can you sit back with a guaranteed decent high school and not have to scramble in the lottery again for high school.

This is a weird way to look at it. Most people care about the chances of getting an offer, either as an initial match or off the waitlist, not the chances of being waitlisted and getting off the waitlist.

From that perspective,
BASIS: 54%
Inspired Teaching (5): 19%
Latin 2nd St: 14%
Latin Cooper: 17%
Cap City: 55%
DCI Chinese: 0%
DCI French: 24
DCI Spanish: 5%
Deal: 1%
Hardy: 48%
Inspired Teaching (6): 33%
John Francis: 39%
Stuart-Hobson: 35%

Sibling preference still does bump some of those chances down, but it's not quite as dire as you've made it out to be.

Sibling preference is huge. Some schools, almost all the class or a huge percentage of the class are siblings.

Those numbers are not accurate because sibling preference is not accounted for. It is much lower.

[Anonymous]

some people drop off the initial waitlist before they make offers. so schools making offers to 90%+ of the original list like mundo did most likely called everyone still on it.

[Anonymous]

Sibling preference is huge at Latin. Not quite so much elsewhere at the middle school level maybe.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:some people drop off the initial waitlist before they make offers. so schools making offers to 90%+ of the original list like mundo did most likely called everyone still on it.

Stop making assumptions. It is tiring people who make up BS.

The data is there until count day which is October.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Sibling preference is huge at Latin. Not quite so much elsewhere at the middle school level maybe.

This is very true. About 45% of seats went to siblings at Cooper.