693 FCPS Students Named National Merit Commended Scholars in 2024

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:“Kids should be evaluated holistically and much more comprehensively than the current process allows, but the evaluation absolutely should be relative to the offerings of the kid's zoned school and their abilities relative to the other kids at their school. Picking the top 1% or 1.5% at each school is appropriate, as long as the process is comprehensive enough to get the correct top kids.”

+1
Absolutely. The by MS process needs adjusted so it can find the best kids at that specific school. Right now that is not necessarily the case - fix that and that corrects most of the issue with the new approach.

I’m as pro-reform as you can get and I agree with the above as well. It’s the one concern that I have with the new process, that it’s not identifying the right kids from the non-feeder schools. Deeper analysis is needed that is not available to us, but it does need to be done.

Agree. Adding a look at SOLs seems like a fair way of evaluating applicants.

They will never do that.
In 2023-2024, the number of URM getting advanced pass in geometry SOL is 904.
46 of them were low income
472 of them were asian (31 of them were low income)
22 were black (3 of them were low income)
37 were hispanic (5 of them were low income)
402 were white (7 of them were low income)

So using SOL advance pass as a filter would mostly just increase the number of white students who are not low income.

Your figure for white students is not correct. There were 290 white FCPS 8th graders scoring pass advanced in Geometry in 2023-24, not 402. I agree with your overall asian, black, and hispanic totals.

However, beyond that, the 8th grade Geometry SOL is not a relevant metric for TJ admissions consideration.
1) 8th grade SOL exams are taken after TJ admissions decisions are made - it is 7th grade SOL scores that could be used in TJ admissions decisions.
2) TJ admits students that take Algebra 1 in 7th grade (or before) AND in 8th grade. Your figures only cover students who took Algebra 1 in 7th grade which is not representative of all applicants.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:“Kids should be evaluated holistically and much more comprehensively than the current process allows, but the evaluation absolutely should be relative to the offerings of the kid's zoned school and their abilities relative to the other kids at their school. Picking the top 1% or 1.5% at each school is appropriate, as long as the process is comprehensive enough to get the correct top kids.”

+1
Absolutely. The by MS process needs adjusted so it can find the best kids at that specific school. Right now that is not necessarily the case - fix that and that corrects most of the issue with the new approach.

I’m as pro-reform as you can get and I agree with the above as well. It’s the one concern that I have with the new process, that it’s not identifying the right kids from the non-feeder schools. Deeper analysis is needed that is not available to us, but it does need to be done.

Agree. Adding a look at SOLs seems like a fair way of evaluating applicants.

They will never do that.
In 2023-2024, the number of students getting advanced pass in geometry SOL is 904.
46 of them were low income
472 of them were asian (31 of them were low income)
22 were black (3 of them were low income)
37 were hispanic (5 of them were low income)
402 were white (7 of them were low income)

So using SOL advance pass as a filter would mostly just increase the number of white students who are not low income.

How about algebra?

What about it?

Here is the website, you can fiddle around with it but algebra in 8th grade is already pretty mid.

https://p1pe.doe.virginia.gov/apex_captcha/home.do?apexTypeId=306

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well, we cannot measure in-nate intelligence with objective tests like NMSQT.

Having said that

In
2023: 95/441 students were neither SF (165), nor commended (181), which is 22% of the class
2024: 266/503 students are neither SF (81), nor commended (156), which is 53% of the class

Wow. That’s a huge decline and about as strong evidence as we’ve seen about the declining quality of TJ students. This is simply not an elite school any longer.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:“Kids should be evaluated holistically and much more comprehensively than the current process allows, but the evaluation absolutely should be relative to the offerings of the kid's zoned school and their abilities relative to the other kids at their school. Picking the top 1% or 1.5% at each school is appropriate, as long as the process is comprehensive enough to get the correct top kids.”

+1
Absolutely. The by MS process needs adjusted so it can find the best kids at that specific school. Right now that is not necessarily the case - fix that and that corrects most of the issue with the new approach.

I’m as pro-reform as you can get and I agree with the above as well. It’s the one concern that I have with the new process, that it’s not identifying the right kids from the non-feeder schools. Deeper analysis is needed that is not available to us, but it does need to be done.

Agree. Adding a look at SOLs seems like a fair way of evaluating applicants.

They will never do that.
In 2023-2024, the number of students getting advanced pass in geometry SOL is 904.
46 of them were low income
472 of them were asian (31 of them were low income)
22 were black (3 of them were low income)
37 were hispanic (5 of them were low income)
402 were white (7 of them were low income)

So using SOL advance pass as a filter would mostly just increase the number of white students who are not low income.

How about algebra?

What about it?

Here is the website, you can fiddle around with it but algebra in 8th grade is already pretty mid.

https://p1pe.doe.virginia.gov/apex_captcha/home.do?apexTypeId=306

You only presented partial data. You can’t really draw any conclusions when you only look at a subset of the kids.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:“Kids should be evaluated holistically and much more comprehensively than the current process allows, but the evaluation absolutely should be relative to the offerings of the kid's zoned school and their abilities relative to the other kids at their school. Picking the top 1% or 1.5% at each school is appropriate, as long as the process is comprehensive enough to get the correct top kids.”

+1
Absolutely. The by MS process needs adjusted so it can find the best kids at that specific school. Right now that is not necessarily the case - fix that and that corrects most of the issue with the new approach.

I’m as pro-reform as you can get and I agree with the above as well. It’s the one concern that I have with the new process, that it’s not identifying the right kids from the non-feeder schools. Deeper analysis is needed that is not available to us, but it does need to be done.

Agree. Adding a look at SOLs seems like a fair way of evaluating applicants.

They will never do that.
In 2023-2024, the number of URM getting advanced pass in geometry SOL is 904.
46 of them were low income
472 of them were asian (31 of them were low income)
22 were black (3 of them were low income)
37 were hispanic (5 of them were low income)
402 were white (7 of them were low income)

So using SOL advance pass as a filter would mostly just increase the number of white students who are not low income.

You can also opt out of SOLs.

I did. Total waste of time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:“Kids should be evaluated holistically and much more comprehensively than the current process allows, but the evaluation absolutely should be relative to the offerings of the kid's zoned school and their abilities relative to the other kids at their school. Picking the top 1% or 1.5% at each school is appropriate, as long as the process is comprehensive enough to get the correct top kids.”

+1
Absolutely. The by MS process needs adjusted so it can find the best kids at that specific school. Right now that is not necessarily the case - fix that and that corrects most of the issue with the new approach.

I’m as pro-reform as you can get and I agree with the above as well. It’s the one concern that I have with the new process, that it’s not identifying the right kids from the non-feeder schools. Deeper analysis is needed that is not available to us, but it does need to be done.

Agree. Adding a look at SOLs seems like a fair way of evaluating applicants.

They will never do that.
In 2023-2024, the number of URM getting advanced pass in geometry SOL is 904.
46 of them were low income
472 of them were asian (31 of them were low income)
22 were black (3 of them were low income)
37 were hispanic (5 of them were low income)
402 were white (7 of them were low income)

So using SOL advance pass as a filter would mostly just increase the number of white students who are not low income.

How about algebra?

DP It would be useful to consider 7th grade SOL scores in TJ admissions decisions as an objective measure of content mastery. Given the SOL's use of computer adaptive testing, FCPS might not want to use an absolute threshold, but rather one in the near vicinity of a set threshold. For illustrative purposes, here is the breakdown of pass advanced totals for all FCPS 7th grade students taking SOLs in 2023-24 - e.g. SOL for Math 7, Math 8, Algebra 1, and Geometry. (There were too few Algebra 2 scores to report race breakdowns.)

Number of FCPS 7th graders scoring SOL Pass Advanced (2023-24)
Asian: Math 7--23 , Math 8--237, Algebra 1--623, Geometry--24
Black: Math 7--3, Math 8--34, Algebra 1--37, Geometry--0
Hispanic: Math 7--7, Math 8--86, Algebra 1--56, Geometry--<
White:Math 7--55, Math 8--422, Algebra 1--428, Geometry--<
Mixed Race, non-Hispanic: Math7--5, Math 8--78, Algebra 1--96, Geometry--<

All FCPS 7th graders scoring SOL Pass Advanced (2023-24): 2,214
Asian: 907, Black: 74, Hispanic: 149, White: 905, Mixed Race, non-Hispanic: 179

Not all of those students would apply to TJ, so a slightly lower SOL score threshold could be used to ensure the overall applicant pool meets a minimum size.

[Anonymous]

^ These pass advanced totals are for math only, not all SOLs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well, we cannot measure in-nate intelligence with objective tests like NMSQT.

Having said that

In
2023: 95/441 students were neither SF (165), nor commended (181), which is 22% of the class
2024: 266/503 students are neither SF (81), nor commended (156), which is 53% of the class

Wow. That’s a huge decline and about as strong evidence as we’ve seen about the declining quality of TJ students. This is simply not an elite school any longer.

That’s a big change. The majority of TJ students don’t stand out academically any longer.

You must be one of the LWNJs who only cared about changing the composition of admitted students at TJ, and not whether they distinguished themselves in any way thereafter.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:“Kids should be evaluated holistically and much more comprehensively than the current process allows, but the evaluation absolutely should be relative to the offerings of the kid's zoned school and their abilities relative to the other kids at their school. Picking the top 1% or 1.5% at each school is appropriate, as long as the process is comprehensive enough to get the correct top kids.”

+1
Absolutely. The by MS process needs adjusted so it can find the best kids at that specific school. Right now that is not necessarily the case - fix that and that corrects most of the issue with the new approach.

I’m as pro-reform as you can get and I agree with the above as well. It’s the one concern that I have with the new process, that it’s not identifying the right kids from the non-feeder schools. Deeper analysis is needed that is not available to us, but it does need to be done.

Agree. Adding a look at SOLs seems like a fair way of evaluating applicants.

They will never do that.
In 2023-2024, the number of students getting advanced pass in geometry SOL is 904.
46 of them were low income
472 of them were asian (31 of them were low income)
22 were black (3 of them were low income)
37 were hispanic (5 of them were low income)
402 were white (7 of them were low income)

So using SOL advance pass as a filter would mostly just increase the number of white students who are not low income.

How about algebra?

What about it?

Here is the website, you can fiddle around with it but algebra in 8th grade is already pretty mid.

https://p1pe.doe.virginia.gov/apex_captcha/home.do?apexTypeId=306

You only presented partial data. You can’t really draw any conclusions when you only look at a subset of the kids.

I presented all the geometry advanced pass data.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well, we cannot measure in-nate intelligence with objective tests like NMSQT.

Having said that

In
2023: 95/441 students were neither SF (165), nor commended (181), which is 22% of the class
2024: 266/503 students are neither SF (81), nor commended (156), which is 53% of the class

Wow. That’s a huge decline and about as strong evidence as we’ve seen about the declining quality of TJ students. This is simply not an elite school any longer.

That’s a big change. The majority of TJ students don’t stand out academically any longer.

You must be one of the LWNJs who only cared about changing the composition of admitted students at TJ, and not whether they distinguished themselves in any way thereafter.

The top half of students there are still pretty elite.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:“Kids should be evaluated holistically and much more comprehensively than the current process allows, but the evaluation absolutely should be relative to the offerings of the kid's zoned school and their abilities relative to the other kids at their school. Picking the top 1% or 1.5% at each school is appropriate, as long as the process is comprehensive enough to get the correct top kids.”

+1
Absolutely. The by MS process needs adjusted so it can find the best kids at that specific school. Right now that is not necessarily the case - fix that and that corrects most of the issue with the new approach.

I’m as pro-reform as you can get and I agree with the above as well. It’s the one concern that I have with the new process, that it’s not identifying the right kids from the non-feeder schools. Deeper analysis is needed that is not available to us, but it does need to be done.

Agree. Adding a look at SOLs seems like a fair way of evaluating applicants.

They will never do that.
In 2023-2024, the number of students getting advanced pass in geometry SOL is 904.
46 of them were low income
472 of them were asian (31 of them were low income)
22 were black (3 of them were low income)
37 were hispanic (5 of them were low income)
402 were white (7 of them were low income)

So using SOL advance pass as a filter would mostly just increase the number of white students who are not low income.

How about algebra?

What about it?

Here is the website, you can fiddle around with it but algebra in 8th grade is already pretty mid.

https://p1pe.doe.virginia.gov/apex_captcha/home.do?apexTypeId=306

You only presented partial data. You can’t really draw any conclusions when you only look at a subset of the kids.

I presented all the geometry advanced pass data.

Algebra 1 is the eligibility threshold.

But as the PP mentioned, you would really need to look at 7th grade SOL data.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:“Kids should be evaluated holistically and much more comprehensively than the current process allows, but the evaluation absolutely should be relative to the offerings of the kid's zoned school and their abilities relative to the other kids at their school. Picking the top 1% or 1.5% at each school is appropriate, as long as the process is comprehensive enough to get the correct top kids.”

+1
Absolutely. The by MS process needs adjusted so it can find the best kids at that specific school. Right now that is not necessarily the case - fix that and that corrects most of the issue with the new approach.

I’m as pro-reform as you can get and I agree with the above as well. It’s the one concern that I have with the new process, that it’s not identifying the right kids from the non-feeder schools. Deeper analysis is needed that is not available to us, but it does need to be done.

Agree. Adding a look at SOLs seems like a fair way of evaluating applicants.

They will never do that.
In 2023-2024, the number of URM getting advanced pass in geometry SOL is 904.
46 of them were low income
472 of them were asian (31 of them were low income)
22 were black (3 of them were low income)
37 were hispanic (5 of them were low income)
402 were white (7 of them were low income)

So using SOL advance pass as a filter would mostly just increase the number of white students who are not low income.

How about algebra?

DP It would be useful to consider 7th grade SOL scores in TJ admissions decisions as an objective measure of content mastery. Given the SOL's use of computer adaptive testing, FCPS might not want to use an absolute threshold, but rather one in the near vicinity of a set threshold. For illustrative purposes, here is the breakdown of pass advanced totals for all FCPS 7th grade students taking SOLs in 2023-24 - e.g. SOL for Math 7, Math 8, Algebra 1, and Geometry. (There were too few Algebra 2 scores to report race breakdowns.)

Number of FCPS 7th graders scoring SOL Pass Advanced (2023-24)
Asian: Math 7--23 , Math 8--237, Algebra 1--623, Geometry--24
Black: Math 7--3, Math 8--34, Algebra 1--37, Geometry--0
Hispanic: Math 7--7, Math 8--86, Algebra 1--56, Geometry--<
White:Math 7--55, Math 8--422, Algebra 1--428, Geometry--<
Mixed Race, non-Hispanic: Math7--5, Math 8--78, Algebra 1--96, Geometry--<

All FCPS 7th graders scoring SOL Pass Advanced (2023-24): 2,214
Asian: 907, Black: 74, Hispanic: 149, White: 905, Mixed Race, non-Hispanic: 179

Not all of those students would apply to TJ, so a slightly lower SOL score threshold could be used to ensure the overall applicant pool meets a minimum size.

But students taking Math 7 wouldn't be eligible to apply so it would have been 2,122 for kids received a pass advanced in Math 8+.

You could extend the eligibility to the kids who received a pass proficient for Algebra 1+. That would make it 2,709 eligible students from FCPS, keeping in mind that a large % of the eligible white and Hispanic kids won't apply.

Some of the test numbers are shocking. More than half of the Hispanic kids fail their math SOL in 7th grade.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:“Kids should be evaluated holistically and much more comprehensively than the current process allows, but the evaluation absolutely should be relative to the offerings of the kid's zoned school and their abilities relative to the other kids at their school. Picking the top 1% or 1.5% at each school is appropriate, as long as the process is comprehensive enough to get the correct top kids.”

+1
Absolutely. The by MS process needs adjusted so it can find the best kids at that specific school. Right now that is not necessarily the case - fix that and that corrects most of the issue with the new approach.

I’m as pro-reform as you can get and I agree with the above as well. It’s the one concern that I have with the new process, that it’s not identifying the right kids from the non-feeder schools. Deeper analysis is needed that is not available to us, but it does need to be done.

Agree. Adding a look at SOLs seems like a fair way of evaluating applicants.

They will never do that.
In 2023-2024, the number of students getting advanced pass in geometry SOL is 904.
46 of them were low income
472 of them were asian (31 of them were low income)
22 were black (3 of them were low income)
37 were hispanic (5 of them were low income)
402 were white (7 of them were low income)

So using SOL advance pass as a filter would mostly just increase the number of white students who are not low income.

How about algebra?

What about it?

Here is the website, you can fiddle around with it but algebra in 8th grade is already pretty mid.

https://p1pe.doe.virginia.gov/apex_captcha/home.do?apexTypeId=306

You only presented partial data. You can’t really draw any conclusions when you only look at a subset of the kids.

I presented all the geometry advanced pass data.

ETA. I presented all the 8th grade geometry advanced pass data.
That's already 904 kids for ~306 spots (only about 306 of those spots go to FCPS students, the rest go to Loudon, Arlington, PW, Falls Church)
Add the 8th grade algebra advanced pass and you are adding over 1400 more kids
That's 2300 kids for 306 spots.

There's only about 14k 8th graders in FCPS.

For the class of 2025 (the only year for which I have seen info), 117 out of 306 (almost 40%) students were not receiving AAP level 4 coursework
The admission rate for AAP kids was about 18%, for non-AAP kids about 13%
The percentage of freshmen that took the minimum math requirement in 8th grade (algebra) went from 5% to 31%

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:“Kids should be evaluated holistically and much more comprehensively than the current process allows, but the evaluation absolutely should be relative to the offerings of the kid's zoned school and their abilities relative to the other kids at their school. Picking the top 1% or 1.5% at each school is appropriate, as long as the process is comprehensive enough to get the correct top kids.”

+1
Absolutely. The by MS process needs adjusted so it can find the best kids at that specific school. Right now that is not necessarily the case - fix that and that corrects most of the issue with the new approach.

I’m as pro-reform as you can get and I agree with the above as well. It’s the one concern that I have with the new process, that it’s not identifying the right kids from the non-feeder schools. Deeper analysis is needed that is not available to us, but it does need to be done.

Agree. Adding a look at SOLs seems like a fair way of evaluating applicants.

They will never do that.
In 2023-2024, the number of URM getting advanced pass in geometry SOL is 904.
46 of them were low income
472 of them were asian (31 of them were low income)
22 were black (3 of them were low income)
37 were hispanic (5 of them were low income)
402 were white (7 of them were low income)

So using SOL advance pass as a filter would mostly just increase the number of white students who are not low income.

How about algebra?

DP It would be useful to consider 7th grade SOL scores in TJ admissions decisions as an objective measure of content mastery. Given the SOL's use of computer adaptive testing, FCPS might not want to use an absolute threshold, but rather one in the near vicinity of a set threshold. For illustrative purposes, here is the breakdown of pass advanced totals for all FCPS 7th grade students taking SOLs in 2023-24 - e.g. SOL for Math 7, Math 8, Algebra 1, and Geometry. (There were too few Algebra 2 scores to report race breakdowns.)

Number of FCPS 7th graders scoring SOL Pass Advanced (2023-24)
Asian: Math 7--23 , Math 8--237, Algebra 1--623, Geometry--24
Black: Math 7--3, Math 8--34, Algebra 1--37, Geometry--0
Hispanic: Math 7--7, Math 8--86, Algebra 1--56, Geometry--<
White:Math 7--55, Math 8--422, Algebra 1--428, Geometry--<
Mixed Race, non-Hispanic: Math7--5, Math 8--78, Algebra 1--96, Geometry--<

All FCPS 7th graders scoring SOL Pass Advanced (2023-24): 2,214
Asian: 907, Black: 74, Hispanic: 149, White: 905, Mixed Race, non-Hispanic: 179

Not all of those students would apply to TJ, so a slightly lower SOL score threshold could be used to ensure the overall applicant pool meets a minimum size.

But students taking Math 7 wouldn't be eligible to apply so it would have been 2,122 for kids received a pass advanced in Math 8+.

You could extend the eligibility to the kids who received a pass proficient for Algebra 1+. That would make it 2,709 eligible students from FCPS, keeping in mind that a large % of the eligible white and Hispanic kids won't apply.

Some of the test numbers are shocking. More than half of the Hispanic kids fail their math SOL in 7th grade.

Students can move from Math 7 in 7th grade to Algebra 1 or Algebra 1 HN in 8th grade. The latter two courses have a prerequisite of either Math 7 and/or Pre-Algebra.
https://insys.fcps.edu/CourseCatOnline/courselist/1042/10/1/1/1/1

TJ's admissions criteria includes being enrolled in Algebra 1 honors in 8th grade or Algebra 1 in 8th grade if their school doesn't offer the honors version. So a student taking Math 7 in 7th grade and either Algebra 1 (in some cases) or Algebra 1 honors in 8th grade meets the admission requirements.
"To be eligible for consideration, when the application window opens, applicants must: (1) have completed a full-year course of Algebra 1, or be currently enrolled in a full-year course of honors-level Algebra 1; applicants attending schools whose curricular programs do not include “honors” Algebra 1 courses must have completed or be enrolled in a full-year course of the highest level of Algebra 1 available at their school" https://www.fcps.edu/registration/thomas-jefferson-admissions/eligibility-requirements

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:“Kids should be evaluated holistically and much more comprehensively than the current process allows, but the evaluation absolutely should be relative to the offerings of the kid's zoned school and their abilities relative to the other kids at their school. Picking the top 1% or 1.5% at each school is appropriate, as long as the process is comprehensive enough to get the correct top kids.”

+1
Absolutely. The by MS process needs adjusted so it can find the best kids at that specific school. Right now that is not necessarily the case - fix that and that corrects most of the issue with the new approach.

I’m as pro-reform as you can get and I agree with the above as well. It’s the one concern that I have with the new process, that it’s not identifying the right kids from the non-feeder schools. Deeper analysis is needed that is not available to us, but it does need to be done.

Agree. Adding a look at SOLs seems like a fair way of evaluating applicants.

They will never do that.
In 2023-2024, the number of students getting advanced pass in geometry SOL is 904.
46 of them were low income
472 of them were asian (31 of them were low income)
22 were black (3 of them were low income)
37 were hispanic (5 of them were low income)
402 were white (7 of them were low income)

So using SOL advance pass as a filter would mostly just increase the number of white students who are not low income.

How about algebra?

What about it?

Here is the website, you can fiddle around with it but algebra in 8th grade is already pretty mid.

https://p1pe.doe.virginia.gov/apex_captcha/home.do?apexTypeId=306

You only presented partial data. You can’t really draw any conclusions when you only look at a subset of the kids.

I presented all the geometry advanced pass data.

ETA. I presented all the 8th grade geometry advanced pass data.
That's already 904 kids for ~306 spots (only about 306 of those spots go to FCPS students, the rest go to Loudon, Arlington, PW, Falls Church)
Add the 8th grade algebra advanced pass and you are adding over 1400 more kids
That's 2300 kids for 306 spots.

There's only about 14k 8th graders in FCPS.

For the class of 2025 (the only year for which I have seen info), 117 out of 306 (almost 40%) students were not receiving AAP level 4 coursework
The admission rate for AAP kids was about 18%, for non-AAP kids about 13%
The percentage of freshmen that took the minimum math requirement in 8th grade (algebra) went from 5% to 31%

And? AAP shouldn't be a requirement.