Elrich Now in the Lead

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Votes are being counted based on when they were received. I think old people are more likely to get their ballot in the day they received it, while working folks may have taken more time (like me.. I was on a business trip when it arrived).

Well, that's my hope at least... I figure older people more likely to vote for Elrich because of his great Covid lockdowns, including keeping public libraries and playgrounds closed while all surrounding jurisdictions had already reopened them.

Elrich was always expected to do well with the mail-in vote. It is a demographic that generally trends older which favors him. What was unexpected is how well he would do.

It is pretty clear at this stage that Elrich will win. The only question will be the margin of victory.

Hans Riemer should be ashamed of himself.

Not yet, let's give it a few more days. If the trend continues, then yes. But his percentage of votes was lower with yesterday's count than it was from Thursday's.

The idea that Blair is going to make up votes among the remaining mail-in and provisional ballots is far fetched. The mail-in voter population is not representative of the county as a whole.

You can't say that after everyone was forced to vote mail in last time, during COVID. We are used to it now. And the unprecedented number of mail in ballots shows that.

And you can't say that when the election was pushed into mid-July, during the height of vacation season, when many people had pre-booked vacations and have no choice other than to vote by mail in.

This year is not like every other year. At all.

It remains absolutely true that mail-in voters continue to trend older. The pandemic did not change that.

In fact, applying your own reasoning, the county making it easier to vote by mail may have increased the voting participation of older voters.

Show me proof. Otherwise, it's conjecture.

Denial is a river in Africa.

I have zero time for people who don't work with data and evidence.

Says guy with nothing but hopes and prayers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No Repulbican is fit for office period

You aren’t fit for making opinions, period.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Blair trying to purchase election and his huge huge sign at the polling place dwarfing all others did not give me a good vibe.

And the huge huge dwindling numbers of police gives you a good vibe?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They just updated, Elrich is up 276.

Meaning the gap has narrowed slightly, which we were told here was impossible!

Yeah, it's like this so far:
Before mail-in counted: Blair by 1,110
Day 1 of maili-in: Blair By 600
Day 2: Elrich by 296
Day 3: Elrich by 276

They can post final counts up to 11pm so we may see another update. No counting tomorrow I believe.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Blair trying to purchase election and his huge huge sign at the polling place dwarfing all others did not give me a good vibe.

And the huge huge dwindling numbers of police gives you a good vibe?

I care about public safety. My son was friends with the kid who was shot at Magruder. I care about public safety more than anything right now. but I think most MoCo voters only care about housing and zoning, quite honestly. And that's what will determine the results. Not people getting hurt and killed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They just updated, Elrich is up 276.

Meaning the gap has narrowed slightly, which we were told here was impossible!

Yeah, it's like this so far:
Before mail-in counted: Blair by 1,110
Day 1 of maili-in: Blair By 600
Day 2: Elrich by 296
Day 3: Elrich by 276

They can post final counts up to 11pm so we may see another update. No counting tomorrow I believe.

24 votes! Impossible.

I cannot believe you people are wasting your time like this. As the number of ballots goes down, the proportion that Blair must win increases.

This is like arguing with people who play the lottery. Sure someone will win. But it won’t be you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They just updated, Elrich is up 276.

Meaning the gap has narrowed slightly, which we were told here was impossible!

Yeah, it's like this so far:
Before mail-in counted: Blair by 1,110
Day 1 of maili-in: Blair By 600
Day 2: Elrich by 296
Day 3: Elrich by 276

They can post final counts up to 11pm so we may see another update. No counting tomorrow I believe.

They've gone home. They stopped live streaming. Today, Blair got 40.2% of the mail in vote. Elrich got 39.9%.

Yes, they aren't working Sunday. They have the 25, 27, 28, 29, 30 scheduled for now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So glad. Did not want Blair….

You must not want a police department either.

It's going to be a disaster if Elrich wins again. They are 100 officers down. I expect another couple hundred to leave immediately if he wins again.

Based on what? It's been hard to recruit police officers everywhere. Stop claiming this is particular to MoCo.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So glad. Did not want Blair….

You must not want a police department either.

It's going to be a disaster if Elrich wins again. They are 100 officers down. I expect another couple hundred to leave immediately if he wins again.

Based on what? It's been hard to recruit police officers everywhere. Stop claiming this is particular to MoCo.

Lol, IFYKYK

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Blair trying to purchase election and his huge huge sign at the polling place dwarfing all others did not give me a good vibe.

And the huge huge dwindling numbers of police gives you a good vibe?

I care about public safety. My son was friends with the kid who was shot at Magruder. I care about public safety more than anything right now. but I think most MoCo voters only care about housing and zoning, quite honestly. And that's what will determine the results. Not people getting hurt and killed.

Most MoCo people who vote in the primary probably don't have kids in MCPS. Off-season primary voters tend to be elderly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Blair trying to purchase election and his huge huge sign at the polling place dwarfing all others did not give me a good vibe.

And the huge huge dwindling numbers of police gives you a good vibe?

I care about public safety. My son was friends with the kid who was shot at Magruder. I care about public safety more than anything right now. but I think most MoCo voters only care about housing and zoning, quite honestly. And that's what will determine the results. Not people getting hurt and killed.

Most MoCo people who vote in the primary probably don't have kids in MCPS. Off-season primary voters tend to be elderly.

Seniors care about crime and safety. There are a bunch of shootings around the county right now where people are shooting at each other, often in broad day light, and the cops find 50-60 shell casings left behind. There was just one in Briggs Chaney. 5pm shopping center. Germantown has had several. One last year caught on ring camera. Single family neighborhood. Another on Fenton Street 7pm. Happening more and more. Silver Spring and Germantown are the worst . https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/local/maryland/germantown-neighborhood-shootout-security-cam-maryland/65-2f2cc67b-7256-4522-ba89-26e97b1f898e

https://youtu.be/i79tWnnEQ7c

[Anonymous]

After the first day, Elrich was leading Blair in the mail-in votes by ~16 pt. As of today, that lead in mail-in votes is ~6 pts. Sounds like there are around 40,000 votes still to count.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So glad. Did not want Blair….

You must not want a police department either.

It's going to be a disaster if Elrich wins again. They are 100 officers down. I expect another couple hundred to leave immediately if he wins again.

Sure. They can leave the force and live on their pension. MoCo is a low col area. People can get by with little money and a food forest in their backyard.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So glad. Did not want Blair….

You must not want a police department either.

It's going to be a disaster if Elrich wins again. They are 100 officers down. I expect another couple hundred to leave immediately if he wins again.

Sure. They can leave the force and live on their pension. MoCo is a low col area. People can get by with little money and a food forest in their backyard.

No, they are leaving for Howard County, Baltimore County, Capitol Police, Fairfax Police -- everywhere that treats cops better than MoCo. MCPD police are in high demand. They have a national reputation for being some of the best trained police anywhere. Do you know how many have left to become Chiefs elsewhere?

If Blair wins, then they can stabilize their department and be competitive again with these other jurisdictions.
If Elrich wins, expect more police to leave and more crime to seep in.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So glad. Did not want Blair….

You must not want a police department either.

It's going to be a disaster if Elrich wins again. They are 100 officers down. I expect another couple hundred to leave immediately if he wins again.

Sure. They can leave the force and live on their pension. MoCo is a low col area. People can get by with little money and a food forest in their backyard.

No, they are leaving for Howard County, Baltimore County, Capitol Police, Fairfax Police -- everywhere that treats cops better than MoCo. MCPD police are in high demand. They have a national reputation for being some of the best trained police anywhere. Do you know how many have left to become Chiefs elsewhere?

If Blair wins, then they can stabilize their department and be competitive again with these other jurisdictions.
If Elrich wins, expect more police to leave and more crime to seep in.

+1
Yes, other jurisdictions are having recruitment problems, but MoCo has it worse. This department is riding on a tremendous reputation, which is why our officers are so well-regarded elsewhere. Unfortunately, they aren’t well-regarded HERE and morale is a real problem. Blair could help build it back to what it was.