It's the Economy Stoopid

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

If you really dig into the numbers, you see some of the biggest drops were among women 25-44. In other words, with school starting again and COVID quarantines meaning kids missing significant amounts of school, working mothers are again getting forced out of the labor force due to the lack of reliable child care and paid time off. This jobs report is a strong argument in favor of the Build Back Better plan.

Ummm, fall comes around every year. Why didn't we see those same drops every year? As for quarantines and lock downs, look at local Democrat officials. Way overblown. Why should a kid have to quarantine and miss 10 days of in person learning if s/he tests negative for Covid?

DP. No jobs were lost. The excessive seasonal adjustment will be corrected. The unemployment rate dropped from 5.1 to 4.8. What happened is the labor force is less than pre-pandemic. Some of that is boomers retiring. The rest is a continuing pandemic drag, which shows in the women 25-44.

DDP. There has been a huge increase in homeschooling. I suspect many women left the jobs they didn't need to take priority to their kids education.

[Anonymous]

The seasonal adjustment overestimated the labor force.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/08/business/economy/jobs-report-september-2021.html?referringSource=articleShare

On an unadjusted basis, federal, state and local government employment actually grew by close to 900,000 workers in September. Because that’s fewer than in a typical September, the seasonal adjustment formula interprets it as a loss in jobs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

If you really dig into the numbers, you see some of the biggest drops were among women 25-44. In other words, with school starting again and COVID quarantines meaning kids missing significant amounts of school, working mothers are again getting forced out of the labor force due to the lack of reliable child care and paid time off. This jobs report is a strong argument in favor of the Build Back Better plan.

Ummm, fall comes around every year. Why didn't we see those same drops every year? As for quarantines and lock downs, look at local Democrat officials. Way overblown. Why should a kid have to quarantine and miss 10 days of in person learning if s/he tests negative for Covid?

DP. No jobs were lost. The excessive seasonal adjustment will be corrected. The unemployment rate dropped from 5.1 to 4.8. What happened is the labor force is less than pre-pandemic. Some of that is boomers retiring. The rest is a continuing pandemic drag, which shows in the women 25-44.

DDP. There has been a huge increase in homeschooling. I suspect many women left the jobs they didn't need to take priority to their kids education.

Could be part of the reason, but not the primary issue.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

If you really dig into the numbers, you see some of the biggest drops were among women 25-44. In other words, with school starting again and COVID quarantines meaning kids missing significant amounts of school, working mothers are again getting forced out of the labor force due to the lack of reliable child care and paid time off. This jobs report is a strong argument in favor of the Build Back Better plan.

Ummm, fall comes around every year. Why didn't we see those same drops every year? As for quarantines and lock downs, look at local Democrat officials. Way overblown. Why should a kid have to quarantine and miss 10 days of in person learning if s/he tests negative for Covid?

DP. No jobs were lost. The excessive seasonal adjustment will be corrected. The unemployment rate dropped from 5.1 to 4.8. What happened is the labor force is less than pre-pandemic. Some of that is boomers retiring. The rest is a continuing pandemic drag, which shows in the women 25-44.

DDP. There has been a huge increase in homeschooling. I suspect many women left the jobs they didn't need to take priority to their kids education.

Could be part of the reason, but not the primary issue.

So what's your thesis?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

And all this with record profits for grocery stores during the pandemic.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kroger-results-idUSKBN2AW1O8

Serious question btw. Why are prices going up when so many companies are doing so well.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

And all this with record profits for grocery stores during the pandemic.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kroger-results-idUSKBN2AW1O8

Serious question btw. Why are prices going up when so many companies are doing so well.

International shipping costs are through the roof. It's as simple as that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

And all this with record profits for grocery stores during the pandemic.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kroger-results-idUSKBN2AW1O8

Serious question btw. Why are prices going up when so many companies are doing so well.

International shipping costs are through the roof. It's as simple as that.

We ship things like corn out not in! Yes, we do get fruit from Sout and Central America but a bulk of strawberries and citrus are domestic.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

And all this with record profits for grocery stores during the pandemic.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kroger-results-idUSKBN2AW1O8

Serious question btw. Why are prices going up when so many companies are doing so well.

International shipping costs are through the roof. It's as simple as that.

Pp here: we also grow a Hella lot of soy beans!
We ship things like corn out not in! Yes, we do get fruit from Sout and Central America but a bulk of strawberries and citrus are domestic.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

And all this with record profits for grocery stores during the pandemic.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kroger-results-idUSKBN2AW1O8

Serious question btw. Why are prices going up when so many companies are doing so well.

Supply and demand. Many restaurants went under, and many other businesses for that matter. Combined with higher raw material costs and a very tight labor market, inflation was a fact. But that's what Biden wanted. Specifically, he wanted a tight labor market so that wages would have to rise after his attempt to get $15 minimum wage failed. Likewise, he wanted oil prices to rise so that people would buy EVs and solar panels. The list goes on... Fact is, the current administration is no friend of business, and is under the misguided belief that businesses are simply going to eat their higher costs, rather than pass them along to their customers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

And all this with record profits for grocery stores during the pandemic.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kroger-results-idUSKBN2AW1O8

Serious question btw. Why are prices going up when so many companies are doing so well.

Supply and demand. Many restaurants went under, and many other businesses for that matter. Combined with higher raw material costs and a very tight labor market, inflation was a fact. But that's what Biden wanted. Specifically, he wanted a tight labor market so that wages would have to rise after his attempt to get $15 minimum wage failed. Likewise, he wanted oil prices to rise so that people would buy EVs and solar panels. The list goes on... Fact is, the current administration is no friend of business, and is under the misguided belief that businesses are simply going to eat their higher costs, rather than pass them along to their customers.

I was with you until you got into "he wanted a tight labor market." I speak as a person who left a sector to double my wages. Sectors that don't pay loving wages should go under because they are bad models if profits are eaten by CEOs and not spent in a responsible way. If you can't sustain your workforce, you shouldn't be in business.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

And all this with record profits for grocery stores during the pandemic.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kroger-results-idUSKBN2AW1O8

Serious question btw. Why are prices going up when so many companies are doing so well.

Supply and demand. Many restaurants went under, and many other businesses for that matter. Combined with higher raw material costs and a very tight labor market, inflation was a fact. But that's what Biden wanted. Specifically, he wanted a tight labor market so that wages would have to rise after his attempt to get $15 minimum wage failed. Likewise, he wanted oil prices to rise so that people would buy EVs and solar panels. The list goes on... Fact is, the current administration is no friend of business, and is under the misguided belief that businesses are simply going to eat their higher costs, rather than pass them along to their customers.

+100

"But it is transitory," they say. Sure.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

And all this with record profits for grocery stores during the pandemic.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kroger-results-idUSKBN2AW1O8

Serious question btw. Why are prices going up when so many companies are doing so well.

Supply and demand. Many restaurants went under, and many other businesses for that matter. Combined with higher raw material costs and a very tight labor market, inflation was a fact. But that's what Biden wanted. Specifically, he wanted a tight labor market so that wages would have to rise after his attempt to get $15 minimum wage failed. Likewise, he wanted oil prices to rise so that people would buy EVs and solar panels. The list goes on... Fact is, the current administration is no friend of business, and is under the misguided belief that businesses are simply going to eat their higher costs, rather than pass them along to their customers.

I was with you until you got into "he wanted a tight labor market." I speak as a person who left a sector to double my wages. Sectors that don't pay loving wages should go under because they are bad models if profits are eaten by CEOs and not spent in a responsible way. If you can't sustain your workforce, you shouldn't be in business.

Your situation doesn't track my point. You had to leave your sector to double your money. Not hard to do and it happens all the time. People leave jobs as restaurant servers and grab onto a low rung in finance. If they're any good, and work hard, their pay doubles very quickly.

[Anonymous]

You should learn about Soviet "command economies". People in ivory towers trying to steer and plan economies fail every time. They create artificial dislocations, shortages, and unintended consequences that make things worse.

When a politician says we're gonna spend 50 zillion on X (because there is no demand for it naturally), he starves every other sector of the economy that people would spend on naturally based on what they want to buy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Huge miss-only 194,000 jobs added in September.

Private payrolls added 317,000, missing the expectation of 450,000. Government workers tumbled by 123,000, led by the loss of 144,000 government education jobs.

As markets are digesting the unexpected results, stocks are in chaos and the dollar and bond yields move lower.

Data was gathered mid-September when cases/hospitalizations were much worse than now. I expect this figure to be adjusted upwards > 100,000 next month - just like August’s numbers just were in this report.

As I predicted, this number was adjusted way up in today’s report.

Jobs added in October: 531,000, beating the 450,000 estimate
Unemployment down to 4.6%
Revised jobs added in September: 312,000, up from 194,000
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/05/jobs-report-november-2021.html