McLean to Explore Separating from FC & FCPS

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Good point, should be included in the consideration (but not an outsized impact either)... I think there's what, ~50 kids per year zoned for McLean who go to TJ? So 200 enrollment? If they dropped it to say ~20 per year under the lottery (I don't know what the reality would be, just had to pick a number) that'd be 120 kids enrolled back at McLean in the long run (or realistically maybe 100, with 20 choosing to go private if not able to attend TJ).

Even if you assumed ~120, that would only be a 5% increase in utilization at McLean... so in option B that would keep them at 99% projected capacity in 24-25... but maybe this makes a good argument for option C (which would keep Langley and McLean more balanced in terms of capacity, 93% and 94% respectively). Only for option A would that consideration push a school over the 100% threshold (McLean at 103% in 24-25).

At one point I saw a report that said each of Langley and McLean was the base school for about 150-160 TJ students. So with a lottery approach where Cooper and Longfellow each were sending 15-20 kids to TJ every year instead of up to 40 per year, the direct impact over a four-year period could be about 70-100 additional kids at each school.

However, there could also be a secondary impact: if admission to TJ becomes more random and less predictable, that could prompt more families to just decide to live in a "top" pyramid like Langley and McLean. If that happened, there could be an additional enrollment bump.

Yeah, not sure what the numbers are exactly... I just saw this and ballparked 50/year for McLean, and since Cooper/Langley not on list figured they must be a good chip lower... but could just be annual variation, etc. https://fairfax.homebyschool.com/top-3-middle-schools-thomas-jefferson-tjhsst/

As for the second-order effects of people moving to the pyramid if TJ, it's possible... also possible some folks who seek TJ might feel they have equivalent odds at a more affordable price point outside of Langley/McLean.

The linked article you posted is years old, prior to when the AAP kids from the Langley pyramid stopped attending Kilmer AAP and Longfellow AAP and moved back to Cooper.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:(And that more affordable price point could also give them the additional funds needed to make pursuing private enrollment a viable plan B... long story short I wouldn't go overboard trying to anticipate every possible second-order effect, they're harder to predict and smaller in magnitude)

Agreed - you can't model for this, as you can for the immediate effects of a lottery approach; if it happens, it happens and then someone will have to deal w/it.

[Anonymous]

Why has the cooper renovation not started yet?

This could solve a lot of this overcrowding at mclean high.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Why has the cooper renovation not started yet?

This could solve a lot of this overcrowding at mclean high.

From the meeting tonight, if they change the boundaries, they'll start moving rising 7th graders into Cooper instead of Longfellow next year, just as the renovation was kicking into high gear.

Fun times.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why has the cooper renovation not started yet?

This could solve a lot of this overcrowding at mclean high.

From the meeting tonight, if they change the boundaries, they'll start moving rising 7th graders into Cooper instead of Longfellow next year, just as the renovation was kicking into high gear.

Fun times.

As a parent of a rising 7th grader at cooper, this is a terrible idea? Is there room for these extra kids in the trailers???

When I didn’t think I could get more upset with the SB...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why has the cooper renovation not started yet?

This could solve a lot of this overcrowding at mclean high.

From the meeting tonight, if they change the boundaries, they'll start moving rising 7th graders into Cooper instead of Longfellow next year, just as the renovation was kicking into high gear.

Fun times.

As a parent of a rising 7th grader at cooper, this is a terrible idea? Is there room for these extra kids in the trailers???

When I didn’t think I could get more upset with the SB...

There can always be more trailers in FCPS, up until the point where they have to stack them vertically.

If you don't want more trailers at Cooper, you should let the School Board know you prefer "Option 4" - no boundary change until the Cooper renovation is complete.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:(And that more affordable price point could also give them the additional funds needed to make pursuing private enrollment a viable plan B... long story short I wouldn't go overboard trying to anticipate every possible second-order effect, they're harder to predict and smaller in magnitude)

I predict more families will move to McLean/Langley boundaries with intention to stay through base high school. TJ won't be as desirable because the standards will necessarily go down, whereas the base hs standards will necessarily go up in order to meet the needs of the students who would have gone to TJ, and that in itself will cause a snowball effect.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:(And that more affordable price point could also give them the additional funds needed to make pursuing private enrollment a viable plan B... long story short I wouldn't go overboard trying to anticipate every possible second-order effect, they're harder to predict and smaller in magnitude)

I predict more families will move to McLean/Langley boundaries with intention to stay through base high school. TJ won't be as desirable because the standards will necessarily go down, whereas the base hs standards will necessarily go up in order to meet the needs of the students who would have gone to TJ, and that in itself will cause a snowball effect.

+1 This will absolutely happen.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why has the cooper renovation not started yet?

This could solve a lot of this overcrowding at mclean high.

From the meeting tonight, if they change the boundaries, they'll start moving rising 7th graders into Cooper instead of Longfellow next year, just as the renovation was kicking into high gear.

Fun times.

My kids lived through the renovation at Longfellow. The Cooper kids will be alright.

[Anonymous]

It would be interesting to see the % of the population that are students by each ES. It isn’t just the amount each household pays in taxes, it is how many students per household are in public school. I live in the MHS and our local neighborhood of 50 houses has always averaged more than one student per household in 5e schools since we moved here in 1997. There is no way our property tax dollars pay for the cost of the schools and let alone all the other county services- even though our houses are assessed at well above the average for the county.

If McLean separates and more people move to McLean for the schools that ratio will only get worse.

The last time I checked (and it has been a few years) Arlington had about 10% of its population in the public schools and Fairfax County had about 17%. Arlington did well with its planning out the Orange line corridor where it created housing for adults with 0-1 children. This discrepancy accounts for about of Fairfax’s funding issues.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:LOL. That's fine. Watch your taxes go up, up, up, up, up.

It would be bigger than Falls Church City several fold, so they could end up with taxes somewhere between FC and FCC, but better services than they get today.

Great Falls will follow.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I will pay higher taxes if it means bringing control of our schools back to McLean and keeping said tax dollars here in McLean!

Tax dollars do stay in McLean. Sheesh.

Umm, no, they don’t. The high property taxes that I pay here in McLean get sent all over the county and are subsidizing other locales.

Water bills too, with their high bend over fees spring and summer

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think the town of Vienna should do this too. We already pay so much in town taxes.

I was just thinking Vienna should follow suit. I am a GF resident.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It would be interesting to see the % of the population that are students by each ES. It isn’t just the amount each household pays in taxes, it is how many students per household are in public school. I live in the MHS and our local neighborhood of 50 houses has always averaged more than one student per household in 5e schools since we moved here in 1997. There is no way our property tax dollars pay for the cost of the schools and let alone all the other county services- even though our houses are assessed at well above the average for the county.

If McLean separates and more people move to McLean for the schools that ratio will only get worse.

The last time I checked (and it has been a few years) Arlington had about 10% of its population in the public schools and Fairfax County had about 17%. Arlington did well with its planning out the Orange line corridor where it created housing for adults with 0-1 children. This discrepancy accounts for about of Fairfax’s funding issues.

Very interesting observation! I wonder where the greatest density of families with school age children is in FC? The Orange Lines in FC are pretty family housing heavy, other than maybe Dunn Loring with the nice condos complexes/Mosaic, compared to Arlington. We need more old people or DINKS to keep the schools well funded.

[Anonymous]

I think this is the data you are talking about -

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fairfaxcountyvirginia

FC is over 23% school age, but does not break down by area.