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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Russia cannot even produce this common, 1800s-era technology, crucial to making any new tanks, but subject to western embargo:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/19/whats-perfectly-round-made-of-metal-and-keeping-russia-from-replacing-the-2000-tanks-its-lost-in-ukraine/?sh=4b8c3c5a23f2

- the simple ball bearing.

The US, EU, and Japan make them.

Russians are too stupid to produce them.[/quote]

I don't think Russia is 'too stupid'.  I think Russia is 'too empty'.  It's a dying country.

"At present, Russian law requires men aged 18-27 are required to perform military service."

I couldn't figure out why Russia made a crazy law like this:

"The new bill, which was authored by State Duma Defense Committee chair Andrei Kartapolov and two other deputies from the ruling United Russia party, raises the upper age limit for conscription to 30."
"It also mandates the gradual raising of the minimum conscription age, increasing it to 19 in 2024, to 20 in 2025, and finally to 21 in 2026."
"The introduction of the bill follows President Vladimir Putin’s endorsement of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s proposal to increase Russia’s combat personnel from 1.15 million to 1.5 million in December."
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/03/14/russian-lawmakers-introduce-bill-raising-draft-age-a80477

PROBLEM #1:
Under 18 years (23%) and 45+ (42%) leaves about 50.4 Million (35%) of the Russian population in the age range capable of fighing in Ukraine.  However only 41K (4.26%) of the Russian military are women.  If about half of the Russian population are women that means that less than 25.16 Million males are eligible for combat service (if everyone is healthy, fit for military service, etc).

Putting this another way, about 6% (1.5M) of all Russian males would be in the Russian military.  That also means that this 6% would be consuming, not contributing towards, the Russian economy (e.g. the tribble factor) and it's productivity and is the rosiest picture that could ever be drawn

https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/women-russian-military#:~:text=Women%20in%20the%20Russian%20military%20today&text=In%20May%202020%2C%20Minister%20of,forces%2C%20according%20to%20official%20figures.

PROBLEM #2:
This also means about 42% of the population is 'carried' in terms of social programs and pensions by no more than 35% of the population (before subtracting out the military, wounded veterans, criminals, etc.).

When you look at the official labor rates (about 55% women and 70% men) translates to approximately 13.75'ish million women, 17.5 million men comprising the Russian labor force.

That 6% tribble factor starts looking closer to 8 or 9%, and remember this is ONLY the Russian military - not the bloated Russian Government or security apparatus, criminals, wounded veterans, mentally ill, etc.

PROBLEM #3:
With a birthrate of 1.5, Russia will halve it's population about every two generations.
Normally, Russia would have a "net loss of one person every 30 seconds"  
Assuming 365 days/yr * 24 hr/day * 60 sec/hr = 525,600 sec/yr; that's a loss of 17,520/yr.

But this past year it's estimated that Russia lost ten times that in Ukraine; many who may not have been old enough to start a family.

PROBLEM #4:
Look at this chart.  This was 2021, so add two years shift.

[img]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/38/RUS_SbA1y20210101.png[/img]

Notice how small the draft pool is?
Notice how small the under 18 pool is compared to the 40+? (e.g. unlikely to have children at that age)

It's the population equivalent of a 'deadpool.'

Bottom line - I think this is why they're inching up the draft age - to ride the 'hump' of males as they get older and raise families?[/quote]

And Russia is closing in on 200,000 casualties from this war.[/quote]

Whatever demographic ills are befalling Russia as a result of this war, would be fully applicable to Ukraine as well.  The latter is dealing with battlefield casualties as well as 8 million refugees who have fled country.  [/quote]

Hmm.  There is an analogy, but it's not that close.

On the surface, Russia has 144M and Ukraine has 43M people.  Many assume when you have three times the population, you automatically win, right?

While it's true that Russia can field three times the Army size, it can only do so at the expense of not being able to defend its territory elsewhere.  Ukraine has a population of 65.78 people per square kilometer.  Russia has a population of only 8.46 people per square kilometer.  That means that Russia has only 13% of the population density of Ukraine.  Russia has 6.6 million sq miles to administer.  Ukraine only 233K sq miles.  While the combat is destroying Ukrainian infrastructure, Russia is diverting it's funding and resources to the war; at the expense of neglecting maintenance and upkeep of much of the country.  Russia could easily also be losing control of sections of the country and not even realize it.

In Russia's case, the people fleeing the country voluntarily left.  The could face jail time and branded criminals if they come back, or lose their property if they don't.  Russia is largely pursuing the War themselves, so rapidly depleting it's economy, population, and military resources.  When the war is over, Russia may use it's oil revenues to resupply and restock their military, but their neighbors are frightened they will be Russia's next target.  Russia will be surrounded almost exclusively with enemies and rivals; such as India and China.

In Ukraine's case, the population was involuntarily displaced and they're receiving assistance from other countries.  Ukraine is largely pursuing the War with outside help, so game-changers can happen.  When the war is over, Ukraine will most likely join NATO, so will benefit from assistance - both militarily and via reconstruction.  Ukraine will be surrounded almost exclusively with allies and countries that welcome them.[/quote]

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