Is $TSLA a buy here?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
OP here just taking a victory lap. The stock is up 34% in the last three weeks.

I’m not taking a victory lap because I think I’m so smart. Actually, it’s the opposite: it was so *obvious* that the only reason the stock dropped 50% was that people were using the stock as a way to voice their displeasure with Elon Musk’s political accomplishments.

All the other explanations that people tried to make this thread—that it’s just a meme stock, that the P/E ratio is too high, and so on—were nonsensical because all of those things were true before DOGE began its work. For those explanations to make sense, one would have to believe that the market suddenly realized that $TSLA was an unjustifiable bubble at the exact same time the Democrats began foaming at the mouth over USAID cuts. Of course, this is utter nonsense.

To be clear, while I am still continuing to hold $TSLA, it very well still *could* be a bubble. The point I was making was that there was no rational reason, based on the business or the industry or the broader market, that the stock price should’ve dropped 50% in a matter of weeks. Indeed, it was just one of those unusual moments that harkened back to the types of situations that caused Charlie Munger to say, “If others had not been so stupid, we would not be so rich.”

So the lesson of this thread is the following: YOU. DON’T. MAKE. INVESTMENT. DECISIONS. BASED. ON. POLITICS.


I don’t intentionally align good outcomes for me with good outcomes for fascists. There are thousands of other stocks to choose from. Wouldn’t have invested in a Nazi German company in the 30s for the same reason. Interesting attempt at dodging the issue on your part, tho!

What issue? I am not the OP, but I think the OP was clear that there was no rational reason for the drop in such a short time. The drop was irrational and based on exactly what you are saying (I guess "Nazism"?). The company is still the same as it was before, making the same cars, selling the same carbon credits, etc. So the drop was clearly not based on rational industry or broader market effects.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
OP here just taking a victory lap. The stock is up 34% in the last three weeks.

I’m not taking a victory lap because I think I’m so smart. Actually, it’s the opposite: it was so *obvious* that the only reason the stock dropped 50% was that people were using the stock as a way to voice their displeasure with Elon Musk’s political accomplishments.

All the other explanations that people tried to make this thread—that it’s just a meme stock, that the P/E ratio is too high, and so on—were nonsensical because all of those things were true before DOGE began its work. For those explanations to make sense, one would have to believe that the market suddenly realized that $TSLA was an unjustifiable bubble at the exact same time the Democrats began foaming at the mouth over USAID cuts. Of course, this is utter nonsense.

To be clear, while I am still continuing to hold $TSLA, it very well still *could* be a bubble. The point I was making was that there was no rational reason, based on the business or the industry or the broader market, that the stock price should’ve dropped 50% in a matter of weeks. Indeed, it was just one of those unusual moments that harkened back to the types of situations that caused Charlie Munger to say, “If others had not been so stupid, we would not be so rich.”

So the lesson of this thread is the following: YOU. DON’T. MAKE. INVESTMENT. DECISIONS. BASED. ON. POLITICS.


I don’t intentionally align good outcomes for me with good outcomes for fascists. There are thousands of other stocks to choose from. Wouldn’t have invested in a Nazi German company in the 30s for the same reason. Interesting attempt at dodging the issue on your part, tho!

What issue? I am not the OP, but I think the OP was clear that there was no rational reason for the drop in such a short time. The drop was irrational and based on exactly what you are saying (I guess "Nazism"?). The company is still the same as it was before, making the same cars, selling the same carbon credits, etc. So the drop was clearly not based on rational industry or broader market effects.

The issue is the OP’s circling back to the conclusion that “YOU. DON’T. MAKE. INVESTMENT. DECISIONS. BASED. ON. POLITICS” and using the $TSLA gyrations as support for this advice.

You can and do make investment decisions based on politics. Many many people did (hence the share price decline!) and will continue to.

The best interests of the company (and its shareholders) would be served by it being detached from Elon, because he is a fascist.

[Anonymous]

OP’s analysis is dumb. If you think the stock is an over valued meme stock you shouldn’t buy it just because you think there is still support out there for it as a meme stock.

One of these days it will crash and it probably won’t be because of an earnings report— it will be because people suddenly get nervous they’ll be stuck holding it and those nerves will be contagious.

[Anonymous]

Nope, don't care if Tesla is a "buy" now. I'm not smart enough to pick stocks, but know enough that over time, my S&P 500 ETFs will keep beating the market and Tesla.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Nope, don't care if Tesla is a "buy" now. I'm not smart enough to pick stocks, but know enough that over time, my S&P 500 ETFs will keep beating the market and Tesla.

You think the S&P 500 is going to beat those of us who bought $TSLA pre-pandemic? The stock was selling for $12/share in 2019, and it’s now $318/share.

Also, the bolded makes no sense so I’m not sure if it’s worth arguing with you.

[Anonymous]

OP’s analysis is dumb. If you think the stock is an over valued meme stock you shouldn’t buy it just because you think there is still support out there for it as a meme stock.

One of these days it will crash and it probably won’t be because of an earnings report— it will be because people suddenly get nervous they’ll be stuck holding it and those nerves will be contagious.

You should probably stay out of stock investments if you think this way. If you "suddenly get nervous" you should keep your money under the mattress.

[Anonymous]

Nope, don't care if Tesla is a "buy" now. I'm not smart enough to pick stocks, but know enough that over time, my S&P 500 ETFs will keep beating the market and Tesla.

You are right. You are not smart enough to pick stocks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here just taking a victory lap. The stock is up 34% in the last three weeks.

I’m not taking a victory lap because I think I’m so smart. Actually, it’s the opposite: it was so *obvious* that the only reason the stock dropped 50% was that people were using the stock as a way to voice their displeasure with Elon Musk’s political accomplishments.

All the other explanations that people tried to make this thread—that it’s just a meme stock, that the P/E ratio is too high, and so on—were nonsensical because all of those things were true before DOGE began its work. For those explanations to make sense, one would have to believe that the market suddenly realized that $TSLA was an unjustifiable bubble at the exact same time the Democrats began foaming at the mouth over USAID cuts. Of course, this is utter nonsense.

To be clear, while I am still continuing to hold $TSLA, it very well still *could* be a bubble. The point I was making was that there was no rational reason, based on the business or the industry or the broader market, that the stock price should’ve dropped 50% in a matter of weeks. Indeed, it was just one of those unusual moments that harkened back to the types of situations that caused Charlie Munger to say, “If others had not been so stupid, we would not be so rich.”

So the lesson of this thread is the following: YOU. DON’T. MAKE. INVESTMENT. DECISIONS. BASED. ON. POLITICS.

I don’t intentionally align good outcomes for me with good outcomes for fascists. There are thousands of other stocks to choose from. Wouldn’t have invested in a Nazi German company in the 30s for the same reason. Interesting attempt at dodging the issue on your part, tho!

Yes, please keep this up! This rhetoric worked so well for you that you lost the popular vote to Hitler 2.0, including massive losses among the minorities who ostensibly have the most to lose under Nazi rule.

I can’t wait for eight years of JD Vance after Trump has finished taking a wrecking ball to your worthless institutions!

Great to see you here again, Vlad

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

OP’s analysis is dumb. If you think the stock is an over valued meme stock you shouldn’t buy it just because you think there is still support out there for it as a meme stock.

One of these days it will crash and it probably won’t be because of an earnings report— it will be because people suddenly get nervous they’ll be stuck holding it and those nerves will be contagious.

You should probably stay out of stock investments if you think this way. If you "suddenly get nervous" you should keep your money under the mattress.

I don’t suddenly get nervous because I don’t buy meme stocks.

If you are buying because of what you think other people are thinking— which is what OP admitted to doing— then you need to worry about whether those other people will change their mind.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:


You should probably stay out of stock investments if you think this way. If you "suddenly get nervous" you should keep your money under the mattress.



I don’t suddenly get nervous because I don’t buy meme stocks.

If you are buying because of what you think other people are thinking— which is what OP admitted to doing— then you need to worry about whether those other people will change their mind.

I don't think OP admitted to doing what other people are doing. Anyway, Tesla is not whatever your definition of a meme stock is. Tesla is the 9th largest capitalized stock in the market. Big institutions hold it. You probably hold it if you have an index fund. Tesla is in a lot of the S&P 500 ETF funds. You should check yours.

[Anonymous]

Key Companies in the S&P 500:

Apple (AAPL)
Nvidia (NVDA)
Microsoft (MSFT)
Amazon (AMZN)
Meta Platforms (META)
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL, GOOG)
Tesla (TSLA)
Broadcom (AVGO)
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)

[Anonymous]

The problem wirh TSLA is its value isnt justified by its products. I drove with my wife to Fairfax on the weekend using FSD on Model S and it was multiple crazy phantom brakes for road shadows and random things near the roadside, and unable to makintain reasonable speed, unable to navigate a turn and merge across lanes onto Rt 50... I have been a beta tester for years since I got early access with a 98 safety score, and FSD is not improving to achieve higher levels of autonomy. Neither me nor DW would get into a Tesla robotaxi. She owns a Y. So we own two Teslas with FSD and she doesnt even use it because its unreliable.

[Anonymous]

The problem wirh TSLA is its value isnt justified by its products. I drove with my wife to Fairfax on the weekend using FSD on Model S and it was multiple crazy phantom brakes for road shadows and random things near the roadside, and unable to makintain reasonable speed, unable to navigate a turn and merge across lanes onto Rt 50... I have been a beta tester for years since I got early access with a 98 safety score, and FSD is not improving to achieve higher levels of autonomy. Neither me nor DW would get into a Tesla robotaxi. She owns a Y. So we own two Teslas with FSD and she doesnt even use it because its unreliable.

Your wife should try it on the Y. The S does not have enough miles logged on it to be improved. The Y has vastly improved in the last year. Each car is different in terms of these programs. We have a Y and it has improved enormously. It doesn't do parking lots well, but everything else is great. No phantom braking. We have road construction here and it navigates that! I don't know what the status of "robotaxi" is. As far as I know it's not being used yet (anywhere) so you wouldn't be able to get into one.

[Anonymous]

^ FSD is an evolving product. Driving is a hard thing for sure. It doesn't mean that trying to do hard stuff is unreasonable. Doing hard stuff is what we do in the US to make our products better in so many ways. Tesla is a company willing to take those risks. That's where the value is. If Musk sees something that he thinks is possible he will try it. Yes, he may fail, but trying is worth it. Without Tesla we would not be where we are with EVs (and neither would China).

[Anonymous]

Musk's MO is to go big and fail and then learn from the failure and adjust. Fail again, adjust. Rinse and repeat. It worked with his rockets and cars for the most part. It's probably not a good idea to run government that way.