Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

[Anonymous]

Zelensky now wants 400 billion!

When he doesn’t get it, he will leave (with all his $$$$$$).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Zelensky now wants 400 billion!

When he doesn’t get it, he will leave (with all his $$$$$$).

This is paywalled from The Times. The article says Z has become autocratic and unpopular.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelensky-increasingly-authoritarian-unpopular-mxv30mf6r#:~:text=Ukrainians%20are%20losing%20trust%20in,of%20the%20country's%20wartime%20leader.

[Anonymous]

For all the morons who still think Ukraine aid is literally money being sent out of the country:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/29/ukraine-military-aid-american-economy-boost/

Here is the best-kept secret about U.S. military aid to Ukraine: Most of the money is being spent here in the United States. That’s right: Funds that lawmakers approve to arm Ukraine are not going directly to Ukraine but are being used stateside to build new weapons or to replace weapons sent to Kyiv from U.S. stockpiles. Of the $68 billion in military and related assistance Congress has approved since Russia invaded Ukraine, almost 90 percent is going to Americans, one analysis found.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:There is no doubt Ukrainians have suffered enormous casualties. Maybe not as bad as Russians, who are losing almost a 1000 a day in places like Avdiivka.



This is a serious war. Saw a report that indicates that Russians have less than a 4 percent chance of surviving a year on the front. I'm sure it's similar for Ukrainian soldiers.

Speaking of BS...

Russia would have had to have lost their entire army almost twice over for your 4 percent figure to be even remotely possible. Given what we can guess about Russian force size and casualties, its probably more like a 4 percent chance of dying since the start of the SMO.

If you want to see Russian casualties, you can just look here: https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng

There was an uptick in October when Russia started pushing on Avdeevka, but it wasn't even 1,000 for the month on all fronts combined.

And surely you must realize that if Russia was losing 1,000 a day there, then they wouldn't be winning that battle.

That's completely false. UK and other intelligence services have independently confirmed a high in daily numbers of Russian casualties near 1000 at Avdiivka. Only 1000 troops lost in Russia in a month is absolute laughable delusion.

Mediazona's info is solely based on info released by or confirmed by Russian government sources. They are greatly undercounting deaths.

They use publicly available documents. When someone dies in this day and age, it creates a paper trail. Mediazona has the names, ranks, date of death and other information. Who do you think they are missing? Can you name an individual you think died but isn't listed? Do you think they are systematically missing people from certain regions, or population groups? Where are the bodies?

Intel agency data is in the "trust me bro" tier. Where do their numbers come from, and what data corroborates their counts? Do you know their methodology? Intelligence agencies produce reports they find useful, not necessarily truthful.

That website states that it is an undercount and “The actual death toll is likely significantly higher. ”

Note that Russia also has a lot of PMC’s, prisoners, and other irregular troops that are not counted. Not to mention militias from the Donbas that are not counted.

Prigozhin said he lost 20k troops just in Bakhmut.

Russia is losing roughly 15,000-20,000 soldiers per month in Ukraine. More lately because of how awful the fighting is in Adviika. Most are mobiks from the hinterlands. The smart ones in Moscow and St. Petersburg all left at the start of the war. There are now huge Russian populations in Indonesia and Turkey.

Technically, Russia can absorb these losses of men. It's a big country. It's their equipment losses that are a problem. Thousands of tanks, not to mention all the armored personnel carriers, artillery etc.

This is a really grim war. You can go to twitter or telegram or reddit and see it all. It's horrible.

I think Ukrainians understand this is going to be a long war. And so they are in soldier preservation mode. They are on defense. Would not expect a major offensive from Ukrainians in the foreseeable future. They're just trying to survive. Ukraine has 44 million people. Russia has 143 million people

We've reached the point where life preservation for Ukrainian soldiers has become pretty important. Russians don't care at all.

Huge numbers of Russian soldiers died at Bakhmut, at Vuhledar, at Avdiivka and many other places. Russia is wasting its future on a war that is causing it massive attrition - even as Russia heads into a crisis of population collapse.

Any estimates that can't address the questions of "what were their names?" and "where are their bodies?" is probably a hoax to some degree.

The people claiming big numbers of Russian dead have a problem with the bodies. Early in the war Ukrainian propaganda at least was talking about mobile crematoriums. Then it devolved into "meat cubes," now they are too lazy to even attempt to solve the body problem. They just act like Russians come out of some cloning lab and despawn when hit.

There's no "body problem" in the narrative. Every single day there are brand new videos coming out showing battlefields and trenches littered with dozens of Russian corpses, just abandoned and left behind to decay and literally fulfil the metaphor of becoming fertilizer for sunflowers. Putin does not care enough about their names to have their bodies recovered and given a proper funeral. And their families back home in Ingushetia or wherever else will just be lied to, told they are still at the front fighting, or ran away and went awol, or maybe if their disappearance drags on long enough, the government will eventually give them a loaf of bread for their troubles. That's just the fact of what's been going on.

So Russia is losing a thousand guys a day in Avdeevka alone, and just leaving the bodies there? And this has been going on for two months? Shouldn't this leave absolute mountains of bodies? Surely you guys have pictures of these mountains right?

You mean under the snow? Pfft. You'll have to wait until April.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-heavy-snow-flight-roads-disruption-33b2acb1c11272aa18ec88aa92edbdeb

Good news for Ukraine, though. A lot tougher to re-supply the Russian military from Moscow right now.

"About 135,000 people and 18,000 pieces of equipment were involved in the snow-clearing effort. Nearly 200 trucks got stuck in the snow over the past 24 hours"

Snow can be cleared a lot quicker than blockading trucks along the Polish border. I know which problem I would rather have. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/05/ukrainian-lorry-drivers-facing-polish-blockades-medyka

I don't get what these Polish truckers' beef is. Unless they are willing to haul the same route under the same conditions and same pay (like being forced to sit in your truck for days at end in freezing cold weather for no good reason other than some other dumb trucker throwing a tantrum) and bring supplies into Ukraine where they might face Russian missile attacks, they should shut up and mind their own business.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:There is no doubt Ukrainians have suffered enormous casualties. Maybe not as bad as Russians, who are losing almost a 1000 a day in places like Avdiivka.



This is a serious war. Saw a report that indicates that Russians have less than a 4 percent chance of surviving a year on the front. I'm sure it's similar for Ukrainian soldiers.

Speaking of BS...

Russia would have had to have lost their entire army almost twice over for your 4 percent figure to be even remotely possible. Given what we can guess about Russian force size and casualties, its probably more like a 4 percent chance of dying since the start of the SMO.

If you want to see Russian casualties, you can just look here: https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng

There was an uptick in October when Russia started pushing on Avdeevka, but it wasn't even 1,000 for the month on all fronts combined.

And surely you must realize that if Russia was losing 1,000 a day there, then they wouldn't be winning that battle.

That's completely false. UK and other intelligence services have independently confirmed a high in daily numbers of Russian casualties near 1000 at Avdiivka. Only 1000 troops lost in Russia in a month is absolute laughable delusion.

Mediazona's info is solely based on info released by or confirmed by Russian government sources. They are greatly undercounting deaths.

They use publicly available documents. When someone dies in this day and age, it creates a paper trail. Mediazona has the names, ranks, date of death and other information. Who do you think they are missing? Can you name an individual you think died but isn't listed? Do you think they are systematically missing people from certain regions, or population groups? Where are the bodies?

Intel agency data is in the "trust me bro" tier. Where do their numbers come from, and what data corroborates their counts? Do you know their methodology? Intelligence agencies produce reports they find useful, not necessarily truthful.

That website states that it is an undercount and “The actual death toll is likely significantly higher. ”

Note that Russia also has a lot of PMC’s, prisoners, and other irregular troops that are not counted. Not to mention militias from the Donbas that are not counted.

Prigozhin said he lost 20k troops just in Bakhmut.

Russia is losing roughly 15,000-20,000 soldiers per month in Ukraine. More lately because of how awful the fighting is in Adviika. Most are mobiks from the hinterlands. The smart ones in Moscow and St. Petersburg all left at the start of the war. There are now huge Russian populations in Indonesia and Turkey.

Technically, Russia can absorb these losses of men. It's a big country. It's their equipment losses that are a problem. Thousands of tanks, not to mention all the armored personnel carriers, artillery etc.

This is a really grim war. You can go to twitter or telegram or reddit and see it all. It's horrible.

I think Ukrainians understand this is going to be a long war. And so they are in soldier preservation mode. They are on defense. Would not expect a major offensive from Ukrainians in the foreseeable future. They're just trying to survive. Ukraine has 44 million people. Russia has 143 million people

We've reached the point where life preservation for Ukrainian soldiers has become pretty important. Russians don't care at all.

Huge numbers of Russian soldiers died at Bakhmut, at Vuhledar, at Avdiivka and many other places. Russia is wasting its future on a war that is causing it massive attrition - even as Russia heads into a crisis of population collapse.

Any estimates that can't address the questions of "what were their names?" and "where are their bodies?" is probably a hoax to some degree.

The people claiming big numbers of Russian dead have a problem with the bodies. Early in the war Ukrainian propaganda at least was talking about mobile crematoriums. Then it devolved into "meat cubes," now they are too lazy to even attempt to solve the body problem. They just act like Russians come out of some cloning lab and despawn when hit.

No. You missed the articles about the backed up trucks at the crematoriums. Go back about 200 pages. Now Russia mostly leaves the bodies lying around wherever. Apparently dead Russian soldiers aren't worth wasting the vehicles or fuel to transport back anymore since it's winter and another 4 months before anything is likely done about it. But if you believe that the Russians are 'winning' or that they aren't dying in huge numbers, maybe you can explain where the 25th Combined Arms Army is right now and why they were committed? https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-army-15-000-soldiers-145402713.html

I'm completely at a loss as to what you are implying with the 25th with that article from September. Are you implying that rotating forces is some sort of sign of disaster? Rotations are what any competent army does. You don't leave troops on the front indefinitely to be ground down, unless you are Ukraine which seems to think that's a great plan.

This fatigue factor is a large part of why Russia inflicts such disproportionate casualties and why Ukrainians surrender so easily.

Oh. I see. Since you seem confident, perhaps you can answer these questions.

Did the 25th overrun Bakhmut? Did the 25th completely overwhelm the Ukrainian forces there?

Take a look at the map of Ukraine, then take a look at the currently held territory by the Russians.
https://www.nzz.ch/english/ukraine-war-interactive-map-of-the-current-front-line-ld.1688087

Russians have taken, let's say, 20% of Ukrainian territory. Doesn't it seem odd to you that in the past year the Russians (with a 3:1 numerical advantage, claiming to never take any losses, with Ukrainians surrendering all over the place because they're taking massive casualties) can't do any better than that?

How about Russian propaganda videos. See any "victory laps" taken by Russian soldiers returning home? Guess what.

"The Russian government has approved a resolution that brings the regulatory framework in the field of military registration into line with the decision to raise the draft age to 30 years"
"Changes to the law will come into force on January 1, 2024."
"At the same time, the president also signed a law that introduces a ban on leaving Russia for a citizen from the moment he is served with a summons."
https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/6560daca9a7947298b1855b6?from=article_body

"The Ministry of Defense proposed changing “the organization of medical examinations of citizens with diseases that do not have a significant impact on the ability to perform the duties of military service,”
"The document will amend the Regulations on military medical examination. It, in particular, stipulates in the presence of which diseases (17 categories) citizens are assigned one or another category of fitness for military service."
https://www.rbc.ru/society/03/12/2023/656cb4bf9a7947f53c0f97ea?from=from_main_1

What happens when the laundry of soldiers with infectious diseases are washed together?

You're the most incomprehensible poster on this thread, whether human or ai. Russia/Wagner took Artemovsk last spring, so what are you trying to say about the 25th rotating in the fall? If you think the 25th was destroyed or something, just state it and show what evidence you have.

Also in terms of total forces in this conflict, the ratio has been pretty close to 1-1, not 3-1. Both sides have somewhere around 400K soldiers in Ukraine. There may be localized advantages, but its pretty even in the entire conflict zone.

Since you mentioned surrenders, why are there roughly 20 Ukrainian POWs for every Russian one? Why is Russia "hosting" 10,000+ POWs when they lack the fuel or humanity to even collect their own dead?

DP... this is not at all an incomprehensible post, and you have failed to address it. And you don't seem to understand anything at all about the war. The 25th was only reconstituted a few months ago using conscripts from Ingushetia and Irkutsk and they were sent to the front to relieve depleted Russian troops at Kupyansk etc. The 25th didn't "take Bakhmut in the spring" - that was Wagner and other troops at a cost of 40,000+ Russian dead. And now we are 9 months later and the AFU is still right on the outskirts of Bakhmut without any meaningful breakthrough by Russia in the intervening months despite Ukraine supposedly losing.

And do you have a credible source for your supposed 10,000 POWs and 20 Ukrainian POWs for every Russian one?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:For all the morons who still think Ukraine aid is literally money being sent out of the country:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/29/ukraine-military-aid-american-economy-boost/

Here is the best-kept secret about U.S. military aid to Ukraine: Most of the money is being spent here in the United States. That’s right: Funds that lawmakers approve to arm Ukraine are not going directly to Ukraine but are being used stateside to build new weapons or to replace weapons sent to Kyiv from U.S. stockpiles. Of the $68 billion in military and related assistance Congress has approved since Russia invaded Ukraine, almost 90 percent is going to Americans, one analysis found.

It's Russian trolls who peddle a bogus "corruption yachts and villas" narrative which is based solely on what might sound plausible to a corrupt Russian whose only knowledge of how things work is based on Russian corruption. The reality of it is that it's all being overseen, tracked, databased, audited, tightly controlled and managed.

[Anonymous]

Klitschko turned fully on zelensky.

Arestovich says Ukraine picked wrong side and spilled blood to lose.

Ukie warmongers- you did this.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:There is no doubt Ukrainians have suffered enormous casualties. Maybe not as bad as Russians, who are losing almost a 1000 a day in places like Avdiivka.



This is a serious war. Saw a report that indicates that Russians have less than a 4 percent chance of surviving a year on the front. I'm sure it's similar for Ukrainian soldiers.

Speaking of BS...

Russia would have had to have lost their entire army almost twice over for your 4 percent figure to be even remotely possible. Given what we can guess about Russian force size and casualties, its probably more like a 4 percent chance of dying since the start of the SMO.

If you want to see Russian casualties, you can just look here: https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng

There was an uptick in October when Russia started pushing on Avdeevka, but it wasn't even 1,000 for the month on all fronts combined.

And surely you must realize that if Russia was losing 1,000 a day there, then they wouldn't be winning that battle.

That's completely false. UK and other intelligence services have independently confirmed a high in daily numbers of Russian casualties near 1000 at Avdiivka. Only 1000 troops lost in Russia in a month is absolute laughable delusion.

Mediazona's info is solely based on info released by or confirmed by Russian government sources. They are greatly undercounting deaths.

They use publicly available documents. When someone dies in this day and age, it creates a paper trail. Mediazona has the names, ranks, date of death and other information. Who do you think they are missing? Can you name an individual you think died but isn't listed? Do you think they are systematically missing people from certain regions, or population groups? Where are the bodies?

Intel agency data is in the "trust me bro" tier. Where do their numbers come from, and what data corroborates their counts? Do you know their methodology? Intelligence agencies produce reports they find useful, not necessarily truthful.

That website states that it is an undercount and “The actual death toll is likely significantly higher. ”

Note that Russia also has a lot of PMC’s, prisoners, and other irregular troops that are not counted. Not to mention militias from the Donbas that are not counted.

Prigozhin said he lost 20k troops just in Bakhmut.

Russia is losing roughly 15,000-20,000 soldiers per month in Ukraine. More lately because of how awful the fighting is in Adviika. Most are mobiks from the hinterlands. The smart ones in Moscow and St. Petersburg all left at the start of the war. There are now huge Russian populations in Indonesia and Turkey.

Technically, Russia can absorb these losses of men. It's a big country. It's their equipment losses that are a problem. Thousands of tanks, not to mention all the armored personnel carriers, artillery etc.

This is a really grim war. You can go to twitter or telegram or reddit and see it all. It's horrible.

I think Ukrainians understand this is going to be a long war. And so they are in soldier preservation mode. They are on defense. Would not expect a major offensive from Ukrainians in the foreseeable future. They're just trying to survive. Ukraine has 44 million people. Russia has 143 million people

We've reached the point where life preservation for Ukrainian soldiers has become pretty important. Russians don't care at all.

Huge numbers of Russian soldiers died at Bakhmut, at Vuhledar, at Avdiivka and many other places. Russia is wasting its future on a war that is causing it massive attrition - even as Russia heads into a crisis of population collapse.

Any estimates that can't address the questions of "what were their names?" and "where are their bodies?" is probably a hoax to some degree.

The people claiming big numbers of Russian dead have a problem with the bodies. Early in the war Ukrainian propaganda at least was talking about mobile crematoriums. Then it devolved into "meat cubes," now they are too lazy to even attempt to solve the body problem. They just act like Russians come out of some cloning lab and despawn when hit.

No. You missed the articles about the backed up trucks at the crematoriums. Go back about 200 pages. Now Russia mostly leaves the bodies lying around wherever. Apparently dead Russian soldiers aren't worth wasting the vehicles or fuel to transport back anymore since it's winter and another 4 months before anything is likely done about it. But if you believe that the Russians are 'winning' or that they aren't dying in huge numbers, maybe you can explain where the 25th Combined Arms Army is right now and why they were committed? https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-army-15-000-soldiers-145402713.html

I'm completely at a loss as to what you are implying with the 25th with that article from September. Are you implying that rotating forces is some sort of sign of disaster? Rotations are what any competent army does. You don't leave troops on the front indefinitely to be ground down, unless you are Ukraine which seems to think that's a great plan.

This fatigue factor is a large part of why Russia inflicts such disproportionate casualties and why Ukrainians surrender so easily.

Oh. I see. Since you seem confident, perhaps you can answer these questions.

Did the 25th overrun Bakhmut? Did the 25th completely overwhelm the Ukrainian forces there?

Take a look at the map of Ukraine, then take a look at the currently held territory by the Russians.
https://www.nzz.ch/english/ukraine-war-interactive-map-of-the-current-front-line-ld.1688087

Russians have taken, let's say, 20% of Ukrainian territory. Doesn't it seem odd to you that in the past year the Russians (with a 3:1 numerical advantage, claiming to never take any losses, with Ukrainians surrendering all over the place because they're taking massive casualties) can't do any better than that?

How about Russian propaganda videos. See any "victory laps" taken by Russian soldiers returning home? Guess what.

"The Russian government has approved a resolution that brings the regulatory framework in the field of military registration into line with the decision to raise the draft age to 30 years"
"Changes to the law will come into force on January 1, 2024."
"At the same time, the president also signed a law that introduces a ban on leaving Russia for a citizen from the moment he is served with a summons."
https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/6560daca9a7947298b1855b6?from=article_body

"The Ministry of Defense proposed changing “the organization of medical examinations of citizens with diseases that do not have a significant impact on the ability to perform the duties of military service,”
"The document will amend the Regulations on military medical examination. It, in particular, stipulates in the presence of which diseases (17 categories) citizens are assigned one or another category of fitness for military service."
https://www.rbc.ru/society/03/12/2023/656cb4bf9a7947f53c0f97ea?from=from_main_1

What happens when the laundry of soldiers with infectious diseases are washed together?

You're the most incomprehensible poster on this thread, whether human or ai. Russia/Wagner took Artemovsk last spring, so what are you trying to say about the 25th rotating in the fall? If you think the 25th was destroyed or something, just state it and show what evidence you have.

Also in terms of total forces in this conflict, the ratio has been pretty close to 1-1, not 3-1. Both sides have somewhere around 400K soldiers in Ukraine. There may be localized advantages, but its pretty even in the entire conflict zone.

Since you mentioned surrenders, why are there roughly 20 Ukrainian POWs for every Russian one? Why is Russia "hosting" 10,000+ POWs when they lack the fuel or humanity to even collect their own dead?

DP... this is not at all an incomprehensible post, and you have failed to address it. And you don't seem to understand anything at all about the war. The 25th was only reconstituted a few months ago using conscripts from Ingushetia and Irkutsk and they were sent to the front to relieve depleted Russian troops at Kupyansk etc. The 25th didn't "take Bakhmut in the spring" - that was Wagner and other troops at a cost of 40,000+ Russian dead. And now we are 9 months later and the AFU is still right on the outskirts of Bakhmut without any meaningful breakthrough by Russia in the intervening months despite Ukraine supposedly losing.

And do you have a credible source for your supposed 10,000 POWs and 20 Ukrainian POWs for every Russian one?

wartears.org probably has the best estimate for Ukrainian POWs at 11,809.
The model:https://wartears.org/en/posts/2023-02-02-math-model-v3/
Raw data: https://wartears.org/en/posts/opendata-snapshot/
Example of recent prisoner exchange, most have some biographical info and about half of those have a picture: https://wartears.org/en/posts/obmen-2022-12-06/
A Ukrainian source noted "only" 4,337 however:https://en.lb.ua/news/2023/11/24/24298_ombudsman_stalled_pow_exchanges.html
Ukraine may not be counting the "remobilized" though: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/08/ukrainian-pows-being-sent-to-fight-their-own-army-russian-news-claims

Ukraine is not as transparent as Russia so you have to do a little sleuthing. Here is a description of one of the two camps they operate: https://kyivindependent.com/inside-a-russian-prisoner-of-war-camp-in-ukraine/
Looks to hold a couple hundred POWs.
Supposedly there are lists of "unexchanged" prisoners out there somewhere, but I can't find them in English. Open to anyone with better sources.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:There is no doubt Ukrainians have suffered enormous casualties. Maybe not as bad as Russians, who are losing almost a 1000 a day in places like Avdiivka.



This is a serious war. Saw a report that indicates that Russians have less than a 4 percent chance of surviving a year on the front. I'm sure it's similar for Ukrainian soldiers.

Speaking of BS...

Russia would have had to have lost their entire army almost twice over for your 4 percent figure to be even remotely possible. Given what we can guess about Russian force size and casualties, its probably more like a 4 percent chance of dying since the start of the SMO.

If you want to see Russian casualties, you can just look here: https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng

There was an uptick in October when Russia started pushing on Avdeevka, but it wasn't even 1,000 for the month on all fronts combined.

And surely you must realize that if Russia was losing 1,000 a day there, then they wouldn't be winning that battle.

That's completely false. UK and other intelligence services have independently confirmed a high in daily numbers of Russian casualties near 1000 at Avdiivka. Only 1000 troops lost in Russia in a month is absolute laughable delusion.

Mediazona's info is solely based on info released by or confirmed by Russian government sources. They are greatly undercounting deaths.

They use publicly available documents. When someone dies in this day and age, it creates a paper trail. Mediazona has the names, ranks, date of death and other information. Who do you think they are missing? Can you name an individual you think died but isn't listed? Do you think they are systematically missing people from certain regions, or population groups? Where are the bodies?

Intel agency data is in the "trust me bro" tier. Where do their numbers come from, and what data corroborates their counts? Do you know their methodology? Intelligence agencies produce reports they find useful, not necessarily truthful.

That website states that it is an undercount and “The actual death toll is likely significantly higher. ”

Note that Russia also has a lot of PMC’s, prisoners, and other irregular troops that are not counted. Not to mention militias from the Donbas that are not counted.

Prigozhin said he lost 20k troops just in Bakhmut.

Russia is losing roughly 15,000-20,000 soldiers per month in Ukraine. More lately because of how awful the fighting is in Adviika. Most are mobiks from the hinterlands. The smart ones in Moscow and St. Petersburg all left at the start of the war. There are now huge Russian populations in Indonesia and Turkey.

Technically, Russia can absorb these losses of men. It's a big country. It's their equipment losses that are a problem. Thousands of tanks, not to mention all the armored personnel carriers, artillery etc.

This is a really grim war. You can go to twitter or telegram or reddit and see it all. It's horrible.

I think Ukrainians understand this is going to be a long war. And so they are in soldier preservation mode. They are on defense. Would not expect a major offensive from Ukrainians in the foreseeable future. They're just trying to survive. Ukraine has 44 million people. Russia has 143 million people

We've reached the point where life preservation for Ukrainian soldiers has become pretty important. Russians don't care at all.

Huge numbers of Russian soldiers died at Bakhmut, at Vuhledar, at Avdiivka and many other places. Russia is wasting its future on a war that is causing it massive attrition - even as Russia heads into a crisis of population collapse.

Any estimates that can't address the questions of "what were their names?" and "where are their bodies?" is probably a hoax to some degree.

The people claiming big numbers of Russian dead have a problem with the bodies. Early in the war Ukrainian propaganda at least was talking about mobile crematoriums. Then it devolved into "meat cubes," now they are too lazy to even attempt to solve the body problem. They just act like Russians come out of some cloning lab and despawn when hit.

No. You missed the articles about the backed up trucks at the crematoriums. Go back about 200 pages. Now Russia mostly leaves the bodies lying around wherever. Apparently dead Russian soldiers aren't worth wasting the vehicles or fuel to transport back anymore since it's winter and another 4 months before anything is likely done about it. But if you believe that the Russians are 'winning' or that they aren't dying in huge numbers, maybe you can explain where the 25th Combined Arms Army is right now and why they were committed? https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-army-15-000-soldiers-145402713.html

I'm completely at a loss as to what you are implying with the 25th with that article from September. Are you implying that rotating forces is some sort of sign of disaster? Rotations are what any competent army does. You don't leave troops on the front indefinitely to be ground down, unless you are Ukraine which seems to think that's a great plan.

This fatigue factor is a large part of why Russia inflicts such disproportionate casualties and why Ukrainians surrender so easily.

Oh. I see. Since you seem confident, perhaps you can answer these questions.

Did the 25th overrun Bakhmut? Did the 25th completely overwhelm the Ukrainian forces there?

Take a look at the map of Ukraine, then take a look at the currently held territory by the Russians.
https://www.nzz.ch/english/ukraine-war-interactive-map-of-the-current-front-line-ld.1688087

Russians have taken, let's say, 20% of Ukrainian territory. Doesn't it seem odd to you that in the past year the Russians (with a 3:1 numerical advantage, claiming to never take any losses, with Ukrainians surrendering all over the place because they're taking massive casualties) can't do any better than that?

How about Russian propaganda videos. See any "victory laps" taken by Russian soldiers returning home? Guess what.

"The Russian government has approved a resolution that brings the regulatory framework in the field of military registration into line with the decision to raise the draft age to 30 years"
"Changes to the law will come into force on January 1, 2024."
"At the same time, the president also signed a law that introduces a ban on leaving Russia for a citizen from the moment he is served with a summons."
https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/6560daca9a7947298b1855b6?from=article_body

"The Ministry of Defense proposed changing “the organization of medical examinations of citizens with diseases that do not have a significant impact on the ability to perform the duties of military service,”
"The document will amend the Regulations on military medical examination. It, in particular, stipulates in the presence of which diseases (17 categories) citizens are assigned one or another category of fitness for military service."
https://www.rbc.ru/society/03/12/2023/656cb4bf9a7947f53c0f97ea?from=from_main_1

What happens when the laundry of soldiers with infectious diseases are washed together?

You're the most incomprehensible poster on this thread, whether human or ai. Russia/Wagner took Artemovsk last spring, so what are you trying to say about the 25th rotating in the fall? If you think the 25th was destroyed or something, just state it and show what evidence you have.

Also in terms of total forces in this conflict, the ratio has been pretty close to 1-1, not 3-1. Both sides have somewhere around 400K soldiers in Ukraine. There may be localized advantages, but its pretty even in the entire conflict zone.

Since you mentioned surrenders, why are there roughly 20 Ukrainian POWs for every Russian one? Why is Russia "hosting" 10,000+ POWs when they lack the fuel or humanity to even collect their own dead?

DP... this is not at all an incomprehensible post, and you have failed to address it. And you don't seem to understand anything at all about the war. The 25th was only reconstituted a few months ago using conscripts from Ingushetia and Irkutsk and they were sent to the front to relieve depleted Russian troops at Kupyansk etc. The 25th didn't "take Bakhmut in the spring" - that was Wagner and other troops at a cost of 40,000+ Russian dead. And now we are 9 months later and the AFU is still right on the outskirts of Bakhmut without any meaningful breakthrough by Russia in the intervening months despite Ukraine supposedly losing.

And do you have a credible source for your supposed 10,000 POWs and 20 Ukrainian POWs for every Russian one?

wartears.org probably has the best estimate for Ukrainian POWs at 11,809.
The model:https://wartears.org/en/posts/2023-02-02-math-model-v3/
Raw data: https://wartears.org/en/posts/opendata-snapshot/
Example of recent prisoner exchange, most have some biographical info and about half of those have a picture: https://wartears.org/en/posts/obmen-2022-12-06/
A Ukrainian source noted "only" 4,337 however:https://en.lb.ua/news/2023/11/24/24298_ombudsman_stalled_pow_exchanges.html
Ukraine may not be counting the "remobilized" though: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/08/ukrainian-pows-being-sent-to-fight-their-own-army-russian-news-claims

Ukraine is not as transparent as Russia so you have to do a little sleuthing. Here is a description of one of the two camps they operate: https://kyivindependent.com/inside-a-russian-prisoner-of-war-camp-in-ukraine/
Looks to hold a couple hundred POWs.
Supposedly there are lists of "unexchanged" prisoners out there somewhere, but I can't find them in English. Open to anyone with better sources.

Sure. That's one way of looking at it. Here's another.

“The fact is that the Russians do not allow their soldiers to surrender. There have even been cases when Russian drones have killed their own wounded.”
"over the past three weeks around 80 Russians have surrendered."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-putin-weapons-latest-news-b2458447.html

Let me explain. The coldest part of winter has yet to hit. Unfortunately for the Russians, the Ukrainians have been outfitted with highly effective thermal sights (ex. the M1's they just received, amongst others). This means that soldiers on the front lines aren't able to light fires or turn on heaters to keep warm. Many will likely die from frostbite in January and February anyway. By Spring, Ukraine will have the F-16's, making Russian advances difficult without air cover they previously enjoyed. My guess is the Russian upper commanders already know this. They know those troops are dead anyway. To keep the soldier's minds off of surrendering, my guess is the Russian commanders will (as the article suggests), order their troops to counterattack throughout the winter. Well, less one commander, of course.

"The deputy commander of Russia’s 14th Army Corps, Major-General Vladimir Zavadsky, has been killed"
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/5/deputy-russian-army-commander-killed-in-ukraine-official

It's a very sad state of affairs. The Russian frontline troops are sandwiched between the Ukrainian Army on one side; barrier troops on the other. If they refuse orders, they're killed. If they fight the Ukrainians, they're killed. If they try to run home, they're killed. If they sit in a foxhole without heat, they just freeze.

Putin could, at any time, order his troops to come home. Poof. War over. Lives saved. But the Army is still too afraid to stand up to Putin.

But I think that will change. I think this winter is a tipping point. I think this January will start a 18-month process that cannot be stopped once in motion.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Zelensky now wants 400 billion!

When he doesn’t get it, he will leave (with all his $$$$$$).

Right Vlad …

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There is no doubt Ukrainians have suffered enormous casualties. Maybe not as bad as Russians, who are losing almost a 1000 a day in places like Avdiivka.



This is a serious war. Saw a report that indicates that Russians have less than a 4 percent chance of surviving a year on the front. I'm sure it's similar for Ukrainian soldiers.

Speaking of BS...

Russia would have had to have lost their entire army almost twice over for your 4 percent figure to be even remotely possible. Given what we can guess about Russian force size and casualties, its probably more like a 4 percent chance of dying since the start of the SMO.

If you want to see Russian casualties, you can just look here: https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng

There was an uptick in October when Russia started pushing on Avdeevka, but it wasn't even 1,000 for the month on all fronts combined.

And surely you must realize that if Russia was losing 1,000 a day there, then they wouldn't be winning that battle.

That's completely false. UK and other intelligence services have independently confirmed a high in daily numbers of Russian casualties near 1000 at Avdiivka. Only 1000 troops lost in Russia in a month is absolute laughable delusion.

Mediazona's info is solely based on info released by or confirmed by Russian government sources. They are greatly undercounting deaths.

They use publicly available documents. When someone dies in this day and age, it creates a paper trail. Mediazona has the names, ranks, date of death and other information. Who do you think they are missing? Can you name an individual you think died but isn't listed? Do you think they are systematically missing people from certain regions, or population groups? Where are the bodies?

Intel agency data is in the "trust me bro" tier. Where do their numbers come from, and what data corroborates their counts? Do you know their methodology? Intelligence agencies produce reports they find useful, not necessarily truthful.

That website states that it is an undercount and “The actual death toll is likely significantly higher. ”

Note that Russia also has a lot of PMC’s, prisoners, and other irregular troops that are not counted. Not to mention militias from the Donbas that are not counted.

Prigozhin said he lost 20k troops just in Bakhmut.

Russia is losing roughly 15,000-20,000 soldiers per month in Ukraine. More lately because of how awful the fighting is in Adviika. Most are mobiks from the hinterlands. The smart ones in Moscow and St. Petersburg all left at the start of the war. There are now huge Russian populations in Indonesia and Turkey.

Technically, Russia can absorb these losses of men. It's a big country. It's their equipment losses that are a problem. Thousands of tanks, not to mention all the armored personnel carriers, artillery etc.

This is a really grim war. You can go to twitter or telegram or reddit and see it all. It's horrible.

I think Ukrainians understand this is going to be a long war. And so they are in soldier preservation mode. They are on defense. Would not expect a major offensive from Ukrainians in the foreseeable future. They're just trying to survive. Ukraine has 44 million people. Russia has 143 million people

We've reached the point where life preservation for Ukrainian soldiers has become pretty important. Russians don't care at all.

Huge numbers of Russian soldiers died at Bakhmut, at Vuhledar, at Avdiivka and many other places. Russia is wasting its future on a war that is causing it massive attrition - even as Russia heads into a crisis of population collapse.

Any estimates that can't address the questions of "what were their names?" and "where are their bodies?" is probably a hoax to some degree.

The people claiming big numbers of Russian dead have a problem with the bodies. Early in the war Ukrainian propaganda at least was talking about mobile crematoriums. Then it devolved into "meat cubes," now they are too lazy to even attempt to solve the body problem. They just act like Russians come out of some cloning lab and despawn when hit.

No. You missed the articles about the backed up trucks at the crematoriums. Go back about 200 pages. Now Russia mostly leaves the bodies lying around wherever. Apparently dead Russian soldiers aren't worth wasting the vehicles or fuel to transport back anymore since it's winter and another 4 months before anything is likely done about it. But if you believe that the Russians are 'winning' or that they aren't dying in huge numbers, maybe you can explain where the 25th Combined Arms Army is right now and why they were committed? https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-army-15-000-soldiers-145402713.html

I'm completely at a loss as to what you are implying with the 25th with that article from September. Are you implying that rotating forces is some sort of sign of disaster? Rotations are what any competent army does. You don't leave troops on the front indefinitely to be ground down, unless you are Ukraine which seems to think that's a great plan.

This fatigue factor is a large part of why Russia inflicts such disproportionate casualties and why Ukrainians surrender so easily.

Oh. I see. Since you seem confident, perhaps you can answer these questions.

Did the 25th overrun Bakhmut? Did the 25th completely overwhelm the Ukrainian forces there?

Take a look at the map of Ukraine, then take a look at the currently held territory by the Russians.
https://www.nzz.ch/english/ukraine-war-interactive-map-of-the-current-front-line-ld.1688087

Russians have taken, let's say, 20% of Ukrainian territory. Doesn't it seem odd to you that in the past year the Russians (with a 3:1 numerical advantage, claiming to never take any losses, with Ukrainians surrendering all over the place because they're taking massive casualties) can't do any better than that?

How about Russian propaganda videos. See any "victory laps" taken by Russian soldiers returning home? Guess what.

"The Russian government has approved a resolution that brings the regulatory framework in the field of military registration into line with the decision to raise the draft age to 30 years"
"Changes to the law will come into force on January 1, 2024."
"At the same time, the president also signed a law that introduces a ban on leaving Russia for a citizen from the moment he is served with a summons."
https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/6560daca9a7947298b1855b6?from=article_body

"The Ministry of Defense proposed changing “the organization of medical examinations of citizens with diseases that do not have a significant impact on the ability to perform the duties of military service,”
"The document will amend the Regulations on military medical examination. It, in particular, stipulates in the presence of which diseases (17 categories) citizens are assigned one or another category of fitness for military service."
https://www.rbc.ru/society/03/12/2023/656cb4bf9a7947f53c0f97ea?from=from_main_1

What happens when the laundry of soldiers with infectious diseases are washed together?

You're the most incomprehensible poster on this thread, whether human or ai. Russia/Wagner took Artemovsk last spring, so what are you trying to say about the 25th rotating in the fall? If you think the 25th was destroyed or something, just state it and show what evidence you have.

Also in terms of total forces in this conflict, the ratio has been pretty close to 1-1, not 3-1. Both sides have somewhere around 400K soldiers in Ukraine. There may be localized advantages, but its pretty even in the entire conflict zone.

Since you mentioned surrenders, why are there roughly 20 Ukrainian POWs for every Russian one? Why is Russia "hosting" 10,000+ POWs when they lack the fuel or humanity to even collect their own dead?

DP... this is not at all an incomprehensible post, and you have failed to address it. And you don't seem to understand anything at all about the war. The 25th was only reconstituted a few months ago using conscripts from Ingushetia and Irkutsk and they were sent to the front to relieve depleted Russian troops at Kupyansk etc. The 25th didn't "take Bakhmut in the spring" - that was Wagner and other troops at a cost of 40,000+ Russian dead. And now we are 9 months later and the AFU is still right on the outskirts of Bakhmut without any meaningful breakthrough by Russia in the intervening months despite Ukraine supposedly losing.

And do you have a credible source for your supposed 10,000 POWs and 20 Ukrainian POWs for every Russian one?

wartears.org probably has the best estimate for Ukrainian POWs at 11,809.
The model:https://wartears.org/en/posts/2023-02-02-math-model-v3/
Raw data: https://wartears.org/en/posts/opendata-snapshot/
Example of recent prisoner exchange, most have some biographical info and about half of those have a picture: https://wartears.org/en/posts/obmen-2022-12-06/
A Ukrainian source noted "only" 4,337 however:https://en.lb.ua/news/2023/11/24/24298_ombudsman_stalled_pow_exchanges.html
Ukraine may not be counting the "remobilized" though: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/08/ukrainian-pows-being-sent-to-fight-their-own-army-russian-news-claims

Ukraine is not as transparent as Russia so you have to do a little sleuthing. Here is a description of one of the two camps they operate: https://kyivindependent.com/inside-a-russian-prisoner-of-war-camp-in-ukraine/
Looks to hold a couple hundred POWs.
Supposedly there are lists of "unexchanged" prisoners out there somewhere, but I can't find them in English. Open to anyone with better sources.

Sure. That's one way of looking at it. Here's another.

“The fact is that the Russians do not allow their soldiers to surrender. There have even been cases when Russian drones have killed their own wounded.”
"over the past three weeks around 80 Russians have surrendered."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-putin-weapons-latest-news-b2458447.html

Let me explain. The coldest part of winter has yet to hit. Unfortunately for the Russians, the Ukrainians have been outfitted with highly effective thermal sights (ex. the M1's they just received, amongst others). This means that soldiers on the front lines aren't able to light fires or turn on heaters to keep warm. Many will likely die from frostbite in January and February anyway. By Spring, Ukraine will have the F-16's, making Russian advances difficult without air cover they previously enjoyed. My guess is the Russian upper commanders already know this. They know those troops are dead anyway. To keep the soldier's minds off of surrendering, my guess is the Russian commanders will (as the article suggests), order their troops to counterattack throughout the winter. Well, less one commander, of course.

"The deputy commander of Russia’s 14th Army Corps, Major-General Vladimir Zavadsky, has been killed"
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/5/deputy-russian-army-commander-killed-in-ukraine-official

It's a very sad state of affairs. The Russian frontline troops are sandwiched between the Ukrainian Army on one side; barrier troops on the other. If they refuse orders, they're killed. If they fight the Ukrainians, they're killed. If they try to run home, they're killed. If they sit in a foxhole without heat, they just freeze.

Putin could, at any time, order his troops to come home. Poof. War over. Lives saved. But the Army is still too afraid to stand up to Putin.

But I think that will change. I think this winter is a tipping point. I think this January will start a 18-month process that cannot be stopped once in motion.

Agree

It is very sad. The Tsar of Corruption Putin could end all the misery at any time by stopping his futile misguided war … but war criminal psychopaths aren’t known for restraint, reflection or remorse …

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There is no doubt Ukrainians have suffered enormous casualties. Maybe not as bad as Russians, who are losing almost a 1000 a day in places like Avdiivka.



This is a serious war. Saw a report that indicates that Russians have less than a 4 percent chance of surviving a year on the front. I'm sure it's similar for Ukrainian soldiers.

Speaking of BS...

Russia would have had to have lost their entire army almost twice over for your 4 percent figure to be even remotely possible. Given what we can guess about Russian force size and casualties, its probably more like a 4 percent chance of dying since the start of the SMO.

If you want to see Russian casualties, you can just look here: https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng

There was an uptick in October when Russia started pushing on Avdeevka, but it wasn't even 1,000 for the month on all fronts combined.

And surely you must realize that if Russia was losing 1,000 a day there, then they wouldn't be winning that battle.

That's completely false. UK and other intelligence services have independently confirmed a high in daily numbers of Russian casualties near 1000 at Avdiivka. Only 1000 troops lost in Russia in a month is absolute laughable delusion.

Mediazona's info is solely based on info released by or confirmed by Russian government sources. They are greatly undercounting deaths.

They use publicly available documents. When someone dies in this day and age, it creates a paper trail. Mediazona has the names, ranks, date of death and other information. Who do you think they are missing? Can you name an individual you think died but isn't listed? Do you think they are systematically missing people from certain regions, or population groups? Where are the bodies?

Intel agency data is in the "trust me bro" tier. Where do their numbers come from, and what data corroborates their counts? Do you know their methodology? Intelligence agencies produce reports they find useful, not necessarily truthful.

That website states that it is an undercount and “The actual death toll is likely significantly higher. ”

Note that Russia also has a lot of PMC’s, prisoners, and other irregular troops that are not counted. Not to mention militias from the Donbas that are not counted.

Prigozhin said he lost 20k troops just in Bakhmut.

Russia is losing roughly 15,000-20,000 soldiers per month in Ukraine. More lately because of how awful the fighting is in Adviika. Most are mobiks from the hinterlands. The smart ones in Moscow and St. Petersburg all left at the start of the war. There are now huge Russian populations in Indonesia and Turkey.

Technically, Russia can absorb these losses of men. It's a big country. It's their equipment losses that are a problem. Thousands of tanks, not to mention all the armored personnel carriers, artillery etc.

This is a really grim war. You can go to twitter or telegram or reddit and see it all. It's horrible.

I think Ukrainians understand this is going to be a long war. And so they are in soldier preservation mode. They are on defense. Would not expect a major offensive from Ukrainians in the foreseeable future. They're just trying to survive. Ukraine has 44 million people. Russia has 143 million people

We've reached the point where life preservation for Ukrainian soldiers has become pretty important. Russians don't care at all.

Huge numbers of Russian soldiers died at Bakhmut, at Vuhledar, at Avdiivka and many other places. Russia is wasting its future on a war that is causing it massive attrition - even as Russia heads into a crisis of population collapse.

Any estimates that can't address the questions of "what were their names?" and "where are their bodies?" is probably a hoax to some degree.

The people claiming big numbers of Russian dead have a problem with the bodies. Early in the war Ukrainian propaganda at least was talking about mobile crematoriums. Then it devolved into "meat cubes," now they are too lazy to even attempt to solve the body problem. They just act like Russians come out of some cloning lab and despawn when hit.

No. You missed the articles about the backed up trucks at the crematoriums. Go back about 200 pages. Now Russia mostly leaves the bodies lying around wherever. Apparently dead Russian soldiers aren't worth wasting the vehicles or fuel to transport back anymore since it's winter and another 4 months before anything is likely done about it. But if you believe that the Russians are 'winning' or that they aren't dying in huge numbers, maybe you can explain where the 25th Combined Arms Army is right now and why they were committed? https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-army-15-000-soldiers-145402713.html

I'm completely at a loss as to what you are implying with the 25th with that article from September. Are you implying that rotating forces is some sort of sign of disaster? Rotations are what any competent army does. You don't leave troops on the front indefinitely to be ground down, unless you are Ukraine which seems to think that's a great plan.

This fatigue factor is a large part of why Russia inflicts such disproportionate casualties and why Ukrainians surrender so easily.

Oh. I see. Since you seem confident, perhaps you can answer these questions.

Did the 25th overrun Bakhmut? Did the 25th completely overwhelm the Ukrainian forces there?

Take a look at the map of Ukraine, then take a look at the currently held territory by the Russians.
https://www.nzz.ch/english/ukraine-war-interactive-map-of-the-current-front-line-ld.1688087

Russians have taken, let's say, 20% of Ukrainian territory. Doesn't it seem odd to you that in the past year the Russians (with a 3:1 numerical advantage, claiming to never take any losses, with Ukrainians surrendering all over the place because they're taking massive casualties) can't do any better than that?

How about Russian propaganda videos. See any "victory laps" taken by Russian soldiers returning home? Guess what.

"The Russian government has approved a resolution that brings the regulatory framework in the field of military registration into line with the decision to raise the draft age to 30 years"
"Changes to the law will come into force on January 1, 2024."
"At the same time, the president also signed a law that introduces a ban on leaving Russia for a citizen from the moment he is served with a summons."
https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/6560daca9a7947298b1855b6?from=article_body

"The Ministry of Defense proposed changing “the organization of medical examinations of citizens with diseases that do not have a significant impact on the ability to perform the duties of military service,”
"The document will amend the Regulations on military medical examination. It, in particular, stipulates in the presence of which diseases (17 categories) citizens are assigned one or another category of fitness for military service."
https://www.rbc.ru/society/03/12/2023/656cb4bf9a7947f53c0f97ea?from=from_main_1

What happens when the laundry of soldiers with infectious diseases are washed together?

You're the most incomprehensible poster on this thread, whether human or ai. Russia/Wagner took Artemovsk last spring, so what are you trying to say about the 25th rotating in the fall? If you think the 25th was destroyed or something, just state it and show what evidence you have.

Also in terms of total forces in this conflict, the ratio has been pretty close to 1-1, not 3-1. Both sides have somewhere around 400K soldiers in Ukraine. There may be localized advantages, but its pretty even in the entire conflict zone.

Since you mentioned surrenders, why are there roughly 20 Ukrainian POWs for every Russian one? Why is Russia "hosting" 10,000+ POWs when they lack the fuel or humanity to even collect their own dead?

DP... this is not at all an incomprehensible post, and you have failed to address it. And you don't seem to understand anything at all about the war. The 25th was only reconstituted a few months ago using conscripts from Ingushetia and Irkutsk and they were sent to the front to relieve depleted Russian troops at Kupyansk etc. The 25th didn't "take Bakhmut in the spring" - that was Wagner and other troops at a cost of 40,000+ Russian dead. And now we are 9 months later and the AFU is still right on the outskirts of Bakhmut without any meaningful breakthrough by Russia in the intervening months despite Ukraine supposedly losing.

And do you have a credible source for your supposed 10,000 POWs and 20 Ukrainian POWs for every Russian one?

wartears.org probably has the best estimate for Ukrainian POWs at 11,809.
The model:https://wartears.org/en/posts/2023-02-02-math-model-v3/
Raw data: https://wartears.org/en/posts/opendata-snapshot/
Example of recent prisoner exchange, most have some biographical info and about half of those have a picture: https://wartears.org/en/posts/obmen-2022-12-06/
A Ukrainian source noted "only" 4,337 however:https://en.lb.ua/news/2023/11/24/24298_ombudsman_stalled_pow_exchanges.html
Ukraine may not be counting the "remobilized" though: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/08/ukrainian-pows-being-sent-to-fight-their-own-army-russian-news-claims

Ukraine is not as transparent as Russia so you have to do a little sleuthing. Here is a description of one of the two camps they operate: https://kyivindependent.com/inside-a-russian-prisoner-of-war-camp-in-ukraine/
Looks to hold a couple hundred POWs.
Supposedly there are lists of "unexchanged" prisoners out there somewhere, but I can't find them in English. Open to anyone with better sources.

Sure. That's one way of looking at it. Here's another.

“The fact is that the Russians do not allow their soldiers to surrender. There have even been cases when Russian drones have killed their own wounded.”
"over the past three weeks around 80 Russians have surrendered."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-putin-weapons-latest-news-b2458447.html

Let me explain. The coldest part of winter has yet to hit. Unfortunately for the Russians, the Ukrainians have been outfitted with highly effective thermal sights (ex. the M1's they just received, amongst others). This means that soldiers on the front lines aren't able to light fires or turn on heaters to keep warm. Many will likely die from frostbite in January and February anyway. By Spring, Ukraine will have the F-16's, making Russian advances difficult without air cover they previously enjoyed. My guess is the Russian upper commanders already know this. They know those troops are dead anyway. To keep the soldier's minds off of surrendering, my guess is the Russian commanders will (as the article suggests), order their troops to counterattack throughout the winter. Well, less one commander, of course.

"The deputy commander of Russia’s 14th Army Corps, Major-General Vladimir Zavadsky, has been killed"
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/5/deputy-russian-army-commander-killed-in-ukraine-official

It's a very sad state of affairs. The Russian frontline troops are sandwiched between the Ukrainian Army on one side; barrier troops on the other. If they refuse orders, they're killed. If they fight the Ukrainians, they're killed. If they try to run home, they're killed. If they sit in a foxhole without heat, they just freeze.

Putin could, at any time, order his troops to come home. Poof. War over. Lives saved. But the Army is still too afraid to stand up to Putin.

But I think that will change. I think this winter is a tipping point. I think this January will start a 18-month process that cannot be stopped once in motion.

I agree with all of this. Winter will work better for the Ukrainians. Of all the combat footage I've seen recently, I still haven't seen a Russian in winter gear. Seen a lot of dead Russians though. And the drones with the thermal sights are brutal. That's some Terminator stuff. There is no hiding from them, particularly in winter.

The problem though is Russia's willingness to take casualties. That has always been their modus operandi. In WWII they lost nearly 9 million soldiers. Germany lost 5 million. Russians fight like they want to die. They've already suffered more than 300,000 casualties in Ukraine. And their plan? Mobilize another 300-400,000 people. "Train" them for a week or two. Put them in uniforms that have no resistance to the elements. Give them whatever remnants of weapons still remain in the armory. And then put them on the front line with Chechens pointing guns at their backs if they ever retreat or try to run.

The vast majority will die, or if they're lucky, loose a limb. But they will keep coming. Russia has more than 100 million more people than Ukraine. And they are willing to sacrifice an entire generation of men as well as their future for a few square miles of heavily mined mud that cannot be farmed or inhabited for decades.

That's the problem. Russians are not rational human beings.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There is no doubt Ukrainians have suffered enormous casualties. Maybe not as bad as Russians, who are losing almost a 1000 a day in places like Avdiivka.



This is a serious war. Saw a report that indicates that Russians have less than a 4 percent chance of surviving a year on the front. I'm sure it's similar for Ukrainian soldiers.

Speaking of BS...

Russia would have had to have lost their entire army almost twice over for your 4 percent figure to be even remotely possible. Given what we can guess about Russian force size and casualties, its probably more like a 4 percent chance of dying since the start of the SMO.

If you want to see Russian casualties, you can just look here: https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng

There was an uptick in October when Russia started pushing on Avdeevka, but it wasn't even 1,000 for the month on all fronts combined.

And surely you must realize that if Russia was losing 1,000 a day there, then they wouldn't be winning that battle.

That's completely false. UK and other intelligence services have independently confirmed a high in daily numbers of Russian casualties near 1000 at Avdiivka. Only 1000 troops lost in Russia in a month is absolute laughable delusion.

Mediazona's info is solely based on info released by or confirmed by Russian government sources. They are greatly undercounting deaths.

They use publicly available documents. When someone dies in this day and age, it creates a paper trail. Mediazona has the names, ranks, date of death and other information. Who do you think they are missing? Can you name an individual you think died but isn't listed? Do you think they are systematically missing people from certain regions, or population groups? Where are the bodies?

Intel agency data is in the "trust me bro" tier. Where do their numbers come from, and what data corroborates their counts? Do you know their methodology? Intelligence agencies produce reports they find useful, not necessarily truthful.

That website states that it is an undercount and “The actual death toll is likely significantly higher. ”

Note that Russia also has a lot of PMC’s, prisoners, and other irregular troops that are not counted. Not to mention militias from the Donbas that are not counted.

Prigozhin said he lost 20k troops just in Bakhmut.

Russia is losing roughly 15,000-20,000 soldiers per month in Ukraine. More lately because of how awful the fighting is in Adviika. Most are mobiks from the hinterlands. The smart ones in Moscow and St. Petersburg all left at the start of the war. There are now huge Russian populations in Indonesia and Turkey.

Technically, Russia can absorb these losses of men. It's a big country. It's their equipment losses that are a problem. Thousands of tanks, not to mention all the armored personnel carriers, artillery etc.

This is a really grim war. You can go to twitter or telegram or reddit and see it all. It's horrible.

I think Ukrainians understand this is going to be a long war. And so they are in soldier preservation mode. They are on defense. Would not expect a major offensive from Ukrainians in the foreseeable future. They're just trying to survive. Ukraine has 44 million people. Russia has 143 million people

We've reached the point where life preservation for Ukrainian soldiers has become pretty important. Russians don't care at all.

Huge numbers of Russian soldiers died at Bakhmut, at Vuhledar, at Avdiivka and many other places. Russia is wasting its future on a war that is causing it massive attrition - even as Russia heads into a crisis of population collapse.

Any estimates that can't address the questions of "what were their names?" and "where are their bodies?" is probably a hoax to some degree.

The people claiming big numbers of Russian dead have a problem with the bodies. Early in the war Ukrainian propaganda at least was talking about mobile crematoriums. Then it devolved into "meat cubes," now they are too lazy to even attempt to solve the body problem. They just act like Russians come out of some cloning lab and despawn when hit.

No. You missed the articles about the backed up trucks at the crematoriums. Go back about 200 pages. Now Russia mostly leaves the bodies lying around wherever. Apparently dead Russian soldiers aren't worth wasting the vehicles or fuel to transport back anymore since it's winter and another 4 months before anything is likely done about it. But if you believe that the Russians are 'winning' or that they aren't dying in huge numbers, maybe you can explain where the 25th Combined Arms Army is right now and why they were committed? https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-army-15-000-soldiers-145402713.html

I'm completely at a loss as to what you are implying with the 25th with that article from September. Are you implying that rotating forces is some sort of sign of disaster? Rotations are what any competent army does. You don't leave troops on the front indefinitely to be ground down, unless you are Ukraine which seems to think that's a great plan.

This fatigue factor is a large part of why Russia inflicts such disproportionate casualties and why Ukrainians surrender so easily.

Oh. I see. Since you seem confident, perhaps you can answer these questions.

Did the 25th overrun Bakhmut? Did the 25th completely overwhelm the Ukrainian forces there?

Take a look at the map of Ukraine, then take a look at the currently held territory by the Russians.
https://www.nzz.ch/english/ukraine-war-interactive-map-of-the-current-front-line-ld.1688087

Russians have taken, let's say, 20% of Ukrainian territory. Doesn't it seem odd to you that in the past year the Russians (with a 3:1 numerical advantage, claiming to never take any losses, with Ukrainians surrendering all over the place because they're taking massive casualties) can't do any better than that?

How about Russian propaganda videos. See any "victory laps" taken by Russian soldiers returning home? Guess what.

"The Russian government has approved a resolution that brings the regulatory framework in the field of military registration into line with the decision to raise the draft age to 30 years"
"Changes to the law will come into force on January 1, 2024."
"At the same time, the president also signed a law that introduces a ban on leaving Russia for a citizen from the moment he is served with a summons."
https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/6560daca9a7947298b1855b6?from=article_body

"The Ministry of Defense proposed changing “the organization of medical examinations of citizens with diseases that do not have a significant impact on the ability to perform the duties of military service,”
"The document will amend the Regulations on military medical examination. It, in particular, stipulates in the presence of which diseases (17 categories) citizens are assigned one or another category of fitness for military service."
https://www.rbc.ru/society/03/12/2023/656cb4bf9a7947f53c0f97ea?from=from_main_1

What happens when the laundry of soldiers with infectious diseases are washed together?

You're the most incomprehensible poster on this thread, whether human or ai. Russia/Wagner took Artemovsk last spring, so what are you trying to say about the 25th rotating in the fall? If you think the 25th was destroyed or something, just state it and show what evidence you have.

Also in terms of total forces in this conflict, the ratio has been pretty close to 1-1, not 3-1. Both sides have somewhere around 400K soldiers in Ukraine. There may be localized advantages, but its pretty even in the entire conflict zone.

Since you mentioned surrenders, why are there roughly 20 Ukrainian POWs for every Russian one? Why is Russia "hosting" 10,000+ POWs when they lack the fuel or humanity to even collect their own dead?

DP... this is not at all an incomprehensible post, and you have failed to address it. And you don't seem to understand anything at all about the war. The 25th was only reconstituted a few months ago using conscripts from Ingushetia and Irkutsk and they were sent to the front to relieve depleted Russian troops at Kupyansk etc. The 25th didn't "take Bakhmut in the spring" - that was Wagner and other troops at a cost of 40,000+ Russian dead. And now we are 9 months later and the AFU is still right on the outskirts of Bakhmut without any meaningful breakthrough by Russia in the intervening months despite Ukraine supposedly losing.

And do you have a credible source for your supposed 10,000 POWs and 20 Ukrainian POWs for every Russian one?

wartears.org probably has the best estimate for Ukrainian POWs at 11,809.
The model:https://wartears.org/en/posts/2023-02-02-math-model-v3/
Raw data: https://wartears.org/en/posts/opendata-snapshot/
Example of recent prisoner exchange, most have some biographical info and about half of those have a picture: https://wartears.org/en/posts/obmen-2022-12-06/
A Ukrainian source noted "only" 4,337 however:https://en.lb.ua/news/2023/11/24/24298_ombudsman_stalled_pow_exchanges.html
Ukraine may not be counting the "remobilized" though: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/08/ukrainian-pows-being-sent-to-fight-their-own-army-russian-news-claims

Ukraine is not as transparent as Russia so you have to do a little sleuthing. Here is a description of one of the two camps they operate: https://kyivindependent.com/inside-a-russian-prisoner-of-war-camp-in-ukraine/
Looks to hold a couple hundred POWs.
Supposedly there are lists of "unexchanged" prisoners out there somewhere, but I can't find them in English. Open to anyone with better sources.

Sure. That's one way of looking at it. Here's another.

“The fact is that the Russians do not allow their soldiers to surrender. There have even been cases when Russian drones have killed their own wounded.”
"over the past three weeks around 80 Russians have surrendered."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-putin-weapons-latest-news-b2458447.html

Let me explain. The coldest part of winter has yet to hit. Unfortunately for the Russians, the Ukrainians have been outfitted with highly effective thermal sights (ex. the M1's they just received, amongst others). This means that soldiers on the front lines aren't able to light fires or turn on heaters to keep warm. Many will likely die from frostbite in January and February anyway. By Spring, Ukraine will have the F-16's, making Russian advances difficult without air cover they previously enjoyed. My guess is the Russian upper commanders already know this. They know those troops are dead anyway. To keep the soldier's minds off of surrendering, my guess is the Russian commanders will (as the article suggests), order their troops to counterattack throughout the winter. Well, less one commander, of course.

"The deputy commander of Russia’s 14th Army Corps, Major-General Vladimir Zavadsky, has been killed"
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/5/deputy-russian-army-commander-killed-in-ukraine-official

It's a very sad state of affairs. The Russian frontline troops are sandwiched between the Ukrainian Army on one side; barrier troops on the other. If they refuse orders, they're killed. If they fight the Ukrainians, they're killed. If they try to run home, they're killed. If they sit in a foxhole without heat, they just freeze.

Putin could, at any time, order his troops to come home. Poof. War over. Lives saved. But the Army is still too afraid to stand up to Putin.

But I think that will change. I think this winter is a tipping point. I think this January will start a 18-month process that cannot be stopped once in motion.

Agree

It is very sad. The Tsar of Corruption Putin could end all the misery at any time by stopping his futile misguided war … but war criminal psychopaths aren’t known for restraint, reflection or remorse …

I think Putin is stuck in the fallacy of sunk cost. To any normal, rational person looking at what it's cost Russia, it should be clear that it is not worth it, and that he should look to start stabilizing and cutting his losses. Russia's economy is tanking, Russian public support for this war is tanking, it's becoming more and more of a disaster for Putin with each passing week and month. And even if Ukraine were to falter and capitulate, what will Russia have won? A broken territory and a broken Russian army that will cost far more than Putin has to rebuild - and if it's Russia's win, the west won't be pitching in to help. As opposed to if Putin declares an end, cuts his losses and withdraws.

[Anonymous]

You last couple of posters are working with old talking points. You're supposed to update to the "Russia is growing its military and will conquer all of Europe if we don't stop them now" talking points.

See for example:
https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/12/the-west-must-hold-strong-in-its-support-for-ukraine/
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/poland-nato-russia-attack-three-years-g8rbpwr67

[Anonymous]

Putin who is dying of twelve different cancers and is a global pariah is basically ignored on a visit to UAE.