NP and data scientist. I’ve been following this for months here and in the other countries I work with. There are a lot of similar data analysis and done with deeper data with more cuts on degree of hybrid etc. It’s maddening that it’s not reported more widely on how many schools have been open for months and the degree to which they have been opened. I don’t want this political but transparency on facts widely And fully reported. Also schools have been opened in many countries with lesser guidelines than the US. That should be reported objectively And full data transparency not anecdotal stories or a point in time . Yes some schools in other countries close during extreme Community spread for a few weeks but they reopen and have been over for many more cumulative months . The damage done to a generation of kids - particularly the most vulnerable - is devastating. |
There has been no transparency by the media - because schools opening is not what they are advocating.
Somewhere along the long schools being open has been construed as "racist" - especially in the DMV - as seen by the stats. And - the tone of DCUM is that opening schools is for rich horrible white people only!! So - the media, which is intent on making literally everything about race - does not provide the facts - which is Covid is not a problem for schools. It is insane. Punishing kids - by refusing to open up schools - so as to please a minority of people - is just unethical. |
Right. The thing is: is there a 100% guarantee your kid won’t catch covid? No. Is it possible that it had been pure luck that things have gone well? I guess so. But: if there was a class of elementary schoolers somewhere that turned into a terrible superspreading event...don’t you think the media would have absolutely jumped to report this?? I have seen no such stories. It seems very likely, that at least at the elementary level (1) mitigations work and (2) little kids don’t spread the virus very effectively. Probably both. People can cite all of the conflicting studies etc that they want- no doubt there are studies to confirm pretty much ANYthing- but the fact is, my kid has been full time in public elementary school since October and everything has been fine. Countless other elementary schools across the country have also run smoothly, kids and teachers are fine. The sky has not fallen. I’m also not saying this would apply to high schools or even middle schools, as there are other challenges to be considered. But elementary schools certainly seem to be running smoothly, by and large. |
This is not straight up % of all kids k-12. It’s by school district with wonky weighting systems for school size and grade levels. |
I GAF but I have a different risk / benefit analysis than you, and I think there are real risks to all virtual learning too. |
I do think that many schools have handled everything well and have done a great job with reopening. However, I did want to point out that I personally know of a mass outbreak at a daycare-- multiple kids in different classrooms (as many as 4 kids in one class with it), teachers and parents infected, and in some cases, entire families. In some areas there are no requirements to report any of this. All this to say, outbreaks do happen-- I think in this case with younger kids, it's impossible for them to keep masks on and social distance 100% of the time and that may lead to transmission. I'm not saying close the schools, but I do think it's fair for people to want to keep their kids home, for not really fear of death necessarily, but more about long haul covid and all the unknown implications around the potential damage that covid seems to wreak havoc on long term with many organs and systems in the body. Unfortunately I have known quite a few young people that have complications from covid that have not abated, as well as several in their 30's and 40's who have died, sadly leaving behind young children. |
Enough. Some of us actually are concerned about our children, want them to be prioritized, and are knowledgeable enough about the relevant data to know it can be done with minimal risk. We’re not claiming it’s zero risk, but we are asking the adults in the community to slightly increase their own COVID risk to reduce the harms of indefinite remote instruction to our children.
People who keep opposing in-person learning at this point need to ask themselves what scientific organizations support their position. If they can’t identify any, they need to ask why that is. |
COVID cases are falling and teachers are getting vaccinated. Those are the two key reasons to keep schools closed. We will see schools reopening next few months. Those two factors were NOT TRUE a few months ago. We had community spread in the US FOR MONTHS similar to what caused other countries to close schools. For 6 months we did a horrible job of managing the pandemic because the Republicans in charge didn’t care and screwed it up. |
I think you forgot that the Governor threatened to sue the teachers unions. There had been zero movement out of the churn of will they/won’t they until that happened. |
Additionally.... The issue with using the (weighted) # of school districts and using %s for all states is that it doesn’t show the true scale of the number of kids DL/hybrid/full in person. This is visually misleading. Has anyone seen the data for the # of kids by state by DL/hybrid/IP? |
For example, looks like Iowa is rocking in-person, but in reality they may have fewer in-person than NY state.
Might be more helpful to see the breakdown (with actual # of kids, not the weighted number of school districts) by suburban/urban/rural. Or by district size or school size. Or kid/sq ft of school. |
Run the numbers however you want to. The DMV will be behind most no matter how you look at it. |
But relative to what? Without realistic numbers it’s misleading to discuss scale. |
Because this person's supposed personal experience is not universal. My siblings' kids are in full-time F2F (not in the DMV) with masks and distancing "required" (but no discipline offered if not followed) and the high schools and middle schools on their district COVID dashboard routinely have 20-30+ cases at a time, and a significant percentage of those are teachers (yes, I know you people want to pretend that teachers are out clubbing and not getting at at school, but don't bother). There have been outbreaks on both the basketball and football teams of my nephew's school. "Doesn't spread in school" is a convenient lie supported by editorials to support an agenda. It's nonsense. |
Both UVA and UMD are having Covid resurgences, and it sounds like it's because students aren't taking precautions.
https://wtop.com/maryland/2021/02/u-md-cancels-in-person-instruction-for-at-least-1-week-orders-on-campus-students-to-sequester-in-place/ Covid will also spread in schools unless EVERYONE cooperates. They don't go on vacations, they don't go out to eat, they don't go clubbing, and they don't hand out inside each other's houses. What are your bets that most of the people screaming for schools to reopen in person can do any of these things? |