Lee HS Enrollment Falls Below 1700

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Gatehouse insider here. Lee is projecting to be around ~1400 in a few years.

I also have an update about the IB East Center Middle (Key) and High (Lee). I have a few new facts confirmed and can tell you some unknowns.

1. The feeders will be the following pyramids: Edison, West Springfield, Hayfield, South County, Annandale, West Potomac, and Mount Vernon. IB would leave Mount Vernon, Edison and Annandale. So, it's going to be a large part of the eastern/southern part of the county.

2. Facilities is supposed to come up with a budget for the boundary study. There was a preliminary rough study.

3. Politically, there is one SB who loves the idea because they do not like the amount of IB programs. One SB members hates this. And others are either indifferent or oppose it because they'd rather the county push funding the Western FX high school.

4. Even with the changes, Lee is tracking to run into accreditation issues due to its ESOL learners. They shouldn't have defunded that damn night school.

5. It's going to be a lottery like HB Woodlawn. Each pyramid will get a set amount of seats with a waitlist.

6. They are following a model that was used by a different district that consolidated its IB programs (after attempting to dispatch them to poor performing schools). The district who did this saw a 100 percent capacity demand and has a large wait-list for the program. It requires students from middle school to commit to the program/diploma and students who aren't on track have to return to their base schools. It is extremely popular.

And this is why this is all a pipe dream. Unless and until Lee loses accreditation, I wouldn’t get my hopes up for any significant change.

I will repeat myself. Lee is tracking to go under state oversight very, very quickly with the new testing requirements and the dumb decision to close the night school. The county is not sitting on its hands and waiting for this to happen. Actually work is being done, meetings are occurring and lobbying (pro and against) is happening. You can say it's not going to happen but don't be surprised if it does and it's done in a quick fashion. This is inside baseball.

Another point, the head of IB wants this and the super is agnostic because he won't publicly commit to any sort of change until he spends at least a year here.

[Anonymous]

Seems like this would also be an opportunity to rename Lee. They will get more qualified applicants from other schools if the school is not named after a Confederate General.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Seems like this would also be an opportunity to rename Lee. They will get more qualified applicants from other schools if the school is not named after a Confederate General.

I agree. That's probably actually the impetus for why they are even bothering to do this. Annandale and Falls Church will take much longer before they decide to help out that school. They will rename it for something to do with IB probably and use that as an excuse.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Gatehouse insider here. Lee is projecting to be around ~1400 in a few years.

I also have an update about the IB East Center Middle (Key) and High (Lee). I have a few new facts confirmed and can tell you some unknowns.

1. The feeders will be the following pyramids: Edison, West Springfield, Hayfield, South County, Annandale, West Potomac, and Mount Vernon. IB would leave Mount Vernon, Edison and Annandale. So, it's going to be a large part of the eastern/southern part of the county.

2. Facilities is supposed to come up with a budget for the boundary study. There was a preliminary rough study.

3. Politically, there is one SB who loves the idea because they do not like the amount of IB programs. One SB members hates this. And others are either indifferent or oppose it because they'd rather the county push funding the Western FX high school.

4. Even with the changes, Lee is tracking to run into accreditation issues due to its ESOL learners. They shouldn't have defunded that damn night school.

5. It's going to be a lottery like HB Woodlawn. Each pyramid will get a set amount of seats with a waitlist.

6. They are following a model that was used by a different district that consolidated its IB programs (after attempting to dispatch them to poor performing schools). The district who did this saw a 100 percent capacity demand and has a large wait-list for the program. It requires students from middle school to commit to the program/diploma and students who aren't on track have to return to their base schools. It is extremely popular.

And this is why this is all a pipe dream. Unless and until Lee loses accreditation, I wouldn’t get my hopes up for any significant change.

I will repeat myself. Lee is tracking to go under state oversight very, very quickly with the new testing requirements and the dumb decision to close the night school. The county is not sitting on its hands and waiting for this to happen. Actually work is being done, meetings are occurring and lobbying (pro and against) is happening. You can say it's not going to happen but don't be surprised if it does and it's done in a quick fashion. This is inside baseball.

Another point, the head of IB wants this and the super is agnostic because he won't publicly commit to any sort of change until he spends at least a year here.

I'd imagine Tom Wilson would be a fan of this. Elizabeth Schultz normally would be expected to dislike IB, but her kids go to Robinson plus her West Springfield constituents will complain when their boundaries change to pick up parts of Lee.

The key to make this happen lies in the staff making a persuasive argument to Scott Brabrand and the School Board along the following lines:

1) Without something like this, Lee's enrollment will continue to decline and the school's accreditation will be at risk;

2) It makes no sense to continue to spend extra money on so many under-enrolled IB programs in that part of the county;

3) Magnet IB programs - unlike the mess they've created in SE Fairfax - can and do succeed (see Richard Montgomery in MCPS);

4) It is not equitable to accept the continued concentration of poverty at Lee when nearby schools like West Springfield have much lower ESOL/FARMS rates;

5) Restoring AP to Annandale, Edison, and Mount Vernon will stem the flow of pupil placements out of those schools to other schools such as Woodson and West Potomac; and

6) This is an opportunity to rebrand Lee and get rid of the Confederate name that many in the county and region find offensive.

The biggest challenge is that it puts two magnets - TJHSST and Lee IB - is the same part of the county, when other parts of the county have their own needs.

[Anonymous]

I wonder if this is at least in part why Tamera Dereneax Kauffax hasn't been making a peep about the "Robert E Lee" name. She is a HUGE IB supporter and has even said generally that it would be good in every FCPS high school b/c it is exactly what the "portrait of a graudate" is all about.

That said, I don't think the size of Lee is an issue at all. If their population is sunk b/c they no longer go to ESOL/alternative schools and the testing requirements can't be met, then I can see that as a reason to re-brand and re-think. And I wouldn't be surprised if they shifted several of their elementary schools into the Hayfield pyramid. Note that Springfield Estates is still serving Hayfield pyramid as the AAP center. I love Springfield Estates (so no complaints there), but pushing other low-income schools into Hayfield is not going to be a good thing. Hayfield is already teetering. It doesn't need a shove in the wrong direction.

But, given the intel in this thread, it is sort of making sense.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I wonder if this is at least in part why Tamera Dereneax Kauffax hasn't been making a peep about the "Robert E Lee" name. She is a HUGE IB supporter and has even said generally that it would be good in every FCPS high school b/c it is exactly what the "portrait of a graudate" is all about.

That said, I don't think the size of Lee is an issue at all. If their population is sunk b/c they no longer go to ESOL/alternative schools and the testing requirements can't be met, then I can see that as a reason to re-brand and re-think. And I wouldn't be surprised if they shifted several of their elementary schools into the Hayfield pyramid. Note that Springfield Estates is still serving Hayfield pyramid as the AAP center. I love Springfield Estates (so no complaints there), but pushing other low-income schools into Hayfield is not going to be a good thing. Hayfield is already teetering. It doesn't need a shove in the wrong direction.

But, given the intel in this thread, it is sort of making sense.

The difference in testing and classes from Lee to other schools in FCPS will continue to have people leave or not reside in the Lee District. I don't know how you can't see this. And it is causing huge tax increases as well for school additions which aren't needed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I wonder if this is at least in part why Tamera Dereneax Kauffax hasn't been making a peep about the "Robert E Lee" name. She is a HUGE IB supporter and has even said generally that it would be good in every FCPS high school b/c it is exactly what the "portrait of a graudate" is all about.

That said, I don't think the size of Lee is an issue at all. If their population is sunk b/c they no longer go to ESOL/alternative schools and the testing requirements can't be met, then I can see that as a reason to re-brand and re-think. And I wouldn't be surprised if they shifted several of their elementary schools into the Hayfield pyramid. Note that Springfield Estates is still serving Hayfield pyramid as the AAP center. I love Springfield Estates (so no complaints there), but pushing other low-income schools into Hayfield is not going to be a good thing. Hayfield is already teetering. It doesn't need a shove in the wrong direction.

But, given the intel in this thread, it is sort of making sense.

The difference in testing and classes from Lee to other schools in FCPS will continue to have people leave or not reside in the Lee District. I don't know how you can't see this. And it is causing huge tax increases as well for school additions which aren't needed.

Older buildings need renovations. Might as well add capacity because why not?

[Anonymous]

Derenek-Kaufax likes IB because her daughter apparently did IB at Lee and is now at NYU. Great for her, but overall IB participation/diploma rates at Lee are abysmal, the school keeps getting poorer, and pupil placements are through the roof. The proposal currently under consideration seems like such an improvement over where the school is now headed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I wonder if this is at least in part why Tamera Dereneax Kauffax hasn't been making a peep about the "Robert E Lee" name. She is a HUGE IB supporter and has even said generally that it would be good in every FCPS high school b/c it is exactly what the "portrait of a graudate" is all about.

That said, I don't think the size of Lee is an issue at all. If their population is sunk b/c they no longer go to ESOL/alternative schools and the testing requirements can't be met, then I can see that as a reason to re-brand and re-think. And I wouldn't be surprised if they shifted several of their elementary schools into the Hayfield pyramid. Note that Springfield Estates is still serving Hayfield pyramid as the AAP center. I love Springfield Estates (so no complaints there), but pushing other low-income schools into Hayfield is not going to be a good thing. Hayfield is already teetering. It doesn't need a shove in the wrong direction.

But, given the intel in this thread, it is sort of making sense.

If they reassign elementary schools, Hayfield would most likely pick up Forestdale, which isn't as high FARMS as some of the Lee feeders. The biggest impacts would probably be on Annandale and West Springfield.

Lynbrook 85.3% [Annandale or Edison]
Garfield 69.7% [West Springfield]
Crestwood 68.9% [Annandale or West Springfield]
Forestdale 52.9% [Hayfield]
Saratoga 50.0% [South County]
Springfield Estates 32.2% (but AAP center w/kids from other schools) [Edison]
Rolling Valley 17.6% (but largely West Springfield feeder) [West Springfield]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I wonder if this is at least in part why Tamera Dereneax Kauffax hasn't been making a peep about the "Robert E Lee" name. She is a HUGE IB supporter and has even said generally that it would be good in every FCPS high school b/c it is exactly what the "portrait of a graudate" is all about.

That said, I don't think the size of Lee is an issue at all. If their population is sunk b/c they no longer go to ESOL/alternative schools and the testing requirements can't be met, then I can see that as a reason to re-brand and re-think. And I wouldn't be surprised if they shifted several of their elementary schools into the Hayfield pyramid. Note that Springfield Estates is still serving Hayfield pyramid as the AAP center. I love Springfield Estates (so no complaints there), but pushing other low-income schools into Hayfield is not going to be a good thing. Hayfield is already teetering. It doesn't need a shove in the wrong direction.

But, given the intel in this thread, it is sort of making sense.

The difference in testing and classes from Lee to other schools in FCPS will continue to have people leave or not reside in the Lee District. I don't know how you can't see this. And it is causing huge tax increases as well for school additions which aren't needed.

Older buildings need renovations. Might as well add capacity because why not?

Because we don't want to spend funds we don't need to and turn off people from moving to or continuing to reside here. It's not like there is a huge influx of people coming into Fairfax these days. More people have been moving out of Fairfax rather than moving in.

"Mar 24, 2017 - Take Fairfax County's massive exodus in 2016, with 17,820 more people leaving the county than moving there domestically. But it still eked out positive net growth of 393 people that year. Births and international immigration made up the difference."

[Anonymous]

In January 2018 the county estimated population growth of 11,000 in 2017 compared to 2016. And population growth due to births and immigrants still impacts the schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Gatehouse insider here. Lee is projecting to be around ~1400 in a few years.

I also have an update about the IB East Center Middle (Key) and High (Lee). I have a few new facts confirmed and can tell you some unknowns.

1. The feeders will be the following pyramids: Edison, West Springfield, Hayfield, South County, Annandale, West Potomac, and Mount Vernon. IB would leave Mount Vernon, Edison and Annandale. So, it's going to be a large part of the eastern/southern part of the county.

2. Facilities is supposed to come up with a budget for the boundary study. There was a preliminary rough study.

3. Politically, there is one SB who loves the idea because they do not like the amount of IB programs. One SB members hates this. And others are either indifferent or oppose it because they'd rather the county push funding the Western FX high school.

4. Even with the changes, Lee is tracking to run into accreditation issues due to its ESOL learners. They shouldn't have defunded that damn night school.

5. It's going to be a lottery like HB Woodlawn. Each pyramid will get a set amount of seats with a waitlist.

6. They are following a model that was used by a different district that consolidated its IB programs (after attempting to dispatch them to poor performing schools). The district who did this saw a 100 percent capacity demand and has a large wait-list for the program. It requires students from middle school to commit to the program/diploma and students who aren't on track have to return to their base schools. It is extremely popular.

And this is why this is all a pipe dream. Unless and until Lee loses accreditation, I wouldn’t get my hopes up for any significant change.

I will repeat myself. Lee is tracking to go under state oversight very, very quickly with the new testing requirements and the dumb decision to close the night school. The county is not sitting on its hands and waiting for this to happen. Actually work is being done, meetings are occurring and lobbying (pro and against) is happening. You can say it's not going to happen but don't be surprised if it does and it's done in a quick fashion. This is inside baseball.

Another point, the head of IB wants this and the super is agnostic because he won't publicly commit to any sort of change until he spends at least a year here.

None of this deals with the actual problem which is non traditional, adult, ESOL students who should be at Bryant or some other alternative high school, instead of in a traditional high school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Seems like this would also be an opportunity to rename Lee. They will get more qualified applicants from other schools if the school is not named after a Confederate General.

Very few people care that Lee is named after a confederate general and very few people think that it is worth the money to change the names of schools like they did with now Justice.

That campaign hardly raised any money whatsoever, in spite of the activists and outside groups claiming there was a huge demand for the name change.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Seems like this would also be an opportunity to rename Lee. They will get more qualified applicants from other schools if the school is not named after a Confederate General.

Very few people care that Lee is named after a confederate general and very few people think that it is worth the money to change the names of schools like they did with now Justice.

That campaign hardly raised any money whatsoever, in spite of the activists and outside groups claiming there was a huge demand for the name change.

The money would be far better spent on extra teachers for those kids.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I wonder if this is at least in part why Tamera Dereneax Kauffax hasn't been making a peep about the "Robert E Lee" name. She is a HUGE IB supporter and has even said generally that it would be good in every FCPS high school b/c it is exactly what the "portrait of a graudate" is all about.

That said, I don't think the size of Lee is an issue at all. If their population is sunk b/c they no longer go to ESOL/alternative schools and the testing requirements can't be met, then I can see that as a reason to re-brand and re-think. And I wouldn't be surprised if they shifted several of their elementary schools into the Hayfield pyramid. Note that Springfield Estates is still serving Hayfield pyramid as the AAP center. I love Springfield Estates (so no complaints there), but pushing other low-income schools into Hayfield is not going to be a good thing. Hayfield is already teetering. It doesn't need a shove in the wrong direction.

But, given the intel in this thread, it is sort of making sense.

If they reassign elementary schools, Hayfield would most likely pick up Forestdale, which isn't as high FARMS as some of the Lee feeders. The biggest impacts would probably be on Annandale and West Springfield.

Lynbrook 85.3% [Annandale or Edison]
Garfield 69.7% [West Springfield]
Crestwood 68.9% [Annandale or West Springfield]
Forestdale 52.9% [Hayfield]
Saratoga 50.0% [South County]
Springfield Estates 32.2% (but AAP center w/kids from other schools) [Edison]
Rolling Valley 17.6% (but largely West Springfield feeder) [West Springfield]

There is not enough interest in IB to rezone any elementary schools.