Concerned about buying in WJ cluster because of re-zoning

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Am I the only one not concerned about this? We’re zoned for Garrett Park and I don’t really care whether we go to WJ or reopened Woodward. Looking at the surrounding area, it’s going to be a relatively well-off crowd in either case. It’s not like our HHI is going to change based on this decision. We’re well-off and my kid’s probably going to have scores reflecting that whichever school he goes to.

If you are in one of the nice big houses in Garret Park and see going to hold it for a long time I'm sure it's no big deal.

If you are in one of those tiny houses in Garret Park Estates, you need to ask yourself why your house costs $650k when they cost $350k in Randolph Hills? That difference seems ripe for arbitrage.

Now maybe Amazon will move to White Flint and everyone's home will boom. Who knows?

I’m in neither but I think you’re seriously exaggerating. A bunch of the Garrett Park Estates are tear downs turning into nice new construction that isn’t going to drop to $350K. The quality of Woodward is not going to be like Einstein. People need to calm down.

I do agree that combining few elementary schools from Einstein and few from WJ will not result in another Einstein. It will result in something between WJ and Einstein.

Right. So after all the dust settles, I bet we see Randolph Hills go up to $400-450 and Garrett Park Estates fall to $500-550k. Not catastrophic, but I would not pay $650k for one of those houses until the dust settles.

I'm not bring snobby. Id probably just buy in Randolph Hills and roll the dice -- can always move if things don't actually pan out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Am I the only one not concerned about this? We’re zoned for Garrett Park and I don’t really care whether we go to WJ or reopened Woodward. Looking at the surrounding area, it’s going to be a relatively well-off crowd in either case. It’s not like our HHI is going to change based on this decision. We’re well-off and my kid’s probably going to have scores reflecting that whichever school he goes to.

If you are in one of the nice big houses in Garret Park and see going to hold it for a long time I'm sure it's no big deal.

If you are in one of those tiny houses in Garret Park Estates, you need to ask yourself why your house costs $650k when they cost $350k in Randolph Hills? That difference seems ripe for arbitrage.

Now maybe Amazon will move to White Flint and everyone's home will boom. Who knows?

I’m in neither but I think you’re seriously exaggerating. A bunch of the Garrett Park Estates are tear downs turning into nice new construction that isn’t going to drop to $350K. The quality of Woodward is not going to be like Einstein. People need to calm down.

I do agree that combining few elementary schools from Einstein and few from WJ will not result in another Einstein. It will result in something between WJ and Einstein.

Right. So after all the dust settles, I bet we see Randolph Hills go up to $400-450 and Garrett Park Estates fall to $500-550k. Not catastrophic, but I would not pay $650k for one of those houses until the dust settles.

I'm not bring snobby. Id probably just buy in Randolph Hills and roll the dice -- can always move if things don't actually pan out.

I am sure Einstein is a fine school but as a Parkwood Resident who has a 400K mortgage on a 1m house that hasn't appreciated much, that we purchased with our own money and hardwork, the prospect of losing money on my house terrifies me.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Am I the only one not concerned about this? We’re zoned for Garrett Park and I don’t really care whether we go to WJ or reopened Woodward. Looking at the surrounding area, it’s going to be a relatively well-off crowd in either case. It’s not like our HHI is going to change based on this decision. We’re well-off and my kid’s probably going to have scores reflecting that whichever school he goes to.

If you are in one of the nice big houses in Garret Park and see going to hold it for a long time I'm sure it's no big deal.

If you are in one of those tiny houses in Garret Park Estates, you need to ask yourself why your house costs $650k when they cost $350k in Randolph Hills? That difference seems ripe for arbitrage.

Now maybe Amazon will move to White Flint and everyone's home will boom. Who knows?

I’m in neither but I think you’re seriously exaggerating. A bunch of the Garrett Park Estates are tear downs turning into nice new construction that isn’t going to drop to $350K. The quality of Woodward is not going to be like Einstein. People need to calm down.

I do agree that combining few elementary schools from Einstein and few from WJ will not result in another Einstein. It will result in something between WJ and Einstein.

Right. So after all the dust settles, I bet we see Randolph Hills go up to $400-450 and Garrett Park Estates fall to $500-550k. Not catastrophic, but I would not pay $650k for one of those houses until the dust settles.

I'm not bring snobby. Id probably just buy in Randolph Hills and roll the dice -- can always move if things don't actually pan out.

I am sure Einstein is a fine school but as a Parkwood Resident who has a 400K mortgage on a 1m house that hasn't appreciated much, that we purchased with our own money and hardwork, the prospect of losing money on my house terrifies me.

lol

not a smart move

I don't know why people do this - being house poor.

no thank you

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Am I the only one not concerned about this? We’re zoned for Garrett Park and I don’t really care whether we go to WJ or reopened Woodward. Looking at the surrounding area, it’s going to be a relatively well-off crowd in either case. It’s not like our HHI is going to change based on this decision. We’re well-off and my kid’s probably going to have scores reflecting that whichever school he goes to.

If you are in one of the nice big houses in Garret Park and see going to hold it for a long time I'm sure it's no big deal.

If you are in one of those tiny houses in Garret Park Estates, you need to ask yourself why your house costs $650k when they cost $350k in Randolph Hills? That difference seems ripe for arbitrage.

Now maybe Amazon will move to White Flint and everyone's home will boom. Who knows?

I’m in neither but I think you’re seriously exaggerating. A bunch of the Garrett Park Estates are tear downs turning into nice new construction that isn’t going to drop to $350K. The quality of Woodward is not going to be like Einstein. People need to calm down.

I do agree that combining few elementary schools from Einstein and few from WJ will not result in another Einstein. It will result in something between WJ and Einstein.

Right. So after all the dust settles, I bet we see Randolph Hills go up to $400-450 and Garrett Park Estates fall to $500-550k. Not catastrophic, but I would not pay $650k for one of those houses until the dust settles.

I'm not bring snobby. Id probably just buy in Randolph Hills and roll the dice -- can always move if things don't actually pan out.

I am sure Einstein is a fine school but as a Parkwood Resident who has a 400K mortgage on a 1m house that hasn't appreciated much, that we purchased with our own money and hardwork, the prospect of losing money on my house terrifies me.

Randolph Hills goes to Wheaton folks, which is part of the reason I used it as my example. Einstein is improving / popular and if KP got rezoned there it would improve even more. Wheaton is not likely to magically improve any time soon.

There are lots of housed zoned for Einstein that sell for $700k and South Kensington will always have a premium over North Kensington.

So Parkwood could fall but not catastrophic. Maybe your million home becomes $900k?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Am I the only one not concerned about this? We’re zoned for Garrett Park and I don’t really care whether we go to WJ or reopened Woodward. Looking at the surrounding area, it’s going to be a relatively well-off crowd in either case. It’s not like our HHI is going to change based on this decision. We’re well-off and my kid’s probably going to have scores reflecting that whichever school he goes to.

If you are in one of the nice big houses in Garret Park and see going to hold it for a long time I'm sure it's no big deal.

If you are in one of those tiny houses in Garret Park Estates, you need to ask yourself why your house costs $650k when they cost $350k in Randolph Hills? That difference seems ripe for arbitrage.

Now maybe Amazon will move to White Flint and everyone's home will boom. Who knows?

I’m in neither but I think you’re seriously exaggerating. A bunch of the Garrett Park Estates are tear downs turning into nice new construction that isn’t going to drop to $350K. The quality of Woodward is not going to be like Einstein. People need to calm down.

I do agree that combining few elementary schools from Einstein and few from WJ will not result in another Einstein. It will result in something between WJ and Einstein.

Right. So after all the dust settles, I bet we see Randolph Hills go up to $400-450 and Garrett Park Estates fall to $500-550k. Not catastrophic, but I would not pay $650k for one of those houses until the dust settles.

I'm not bring snobby. Id probably just buy in Randolph Hills and roll the dice -- can always move if things don't actually pan out.

I am sure Einstein is a fine school but as a Parkwood Resident who has a 400K mortgage on a 1m house that hasn't appreciated much, that we purchased with our own money and hardwork, the prospect of losing money on my house terrifies me.

lol

not a smart move

I don't know why people do this - being house poor.

no thank you

Um, what? I don’t know how long ago they bought but that’s a small mortgage for a $1m house. Not house poor at all.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Geographically and logically, KP and GP ES will likely be zoned for Woodward. The question is whether Farmland and Luxmanor will be included too, because that area also used to attend Woodward before it closed. The presentations make it seem like Woodward will include a few Wheaton/Einstein ES to relieve DCC crowding. That leaves WJ with some open space to relieve some crowding at BCC and Whitman. If that's the case, the new WJ will probably be similar to the current WJ and Woodward will probably be similar to RM when they absorbed Ritchie Park in the 80's. Similarly-sized homes in Horizon Hill are slightly newer and have better layouts than those in Fox Hills West, but the prices are always off by 50-100k because FHW is zoned to Wootton. You can also see a similar pricing differential in Montgomery Square north (RM) and south (Churchill) of Montrose. Your best bet to stay at WJ would be Ashburton or Wyngate, but in the end, it's still a bet because nothing's official. Crapshoot.

I'm not sure how we're defining "geographically and logically," since this is all speculation. But it seems to me the most logical way to split the WJ feeder schools would be to have the schools feeding to NBMS (Ashburton, KP, and Wyngate) go on to WJ, and the schools feeding to Tilden (Farmland, GP, Luxmanor) go on to Woodward. Then add in one or two more contiguous elementaries from whichever direction needs the capacity relief.

Exactly, WJ and Woodward both will have 3 Elementary schools from current WJ boundary. each will pick up 2 more elementary schools. Woodward is pretty much guaranteed to pick 2 from DCC and WJ may pick on from DCC and one from BCC/Whitman. If you look at MCPS projections and BCC addition, most liekly case will be WJ also picking 2 elementary schools from BCC.

WJ should be NBMS (Ashburton, KP, and Wyngate) + 2 elementary schools from DCC
Woodward should be Tilden (Farmland, GP, Luxmanor) + 2 elementary schools from DCC.

You are misreading the stats. With the addition that's currently underway, BCC will not be significantly over capacity for at least 15 years. (Projected to be 92 over capacity in 2031.) Obviously reality may outstrip projections, but meanwhile, Einstein, Blair, WJ, and Northwood are CURRENTLY hundreds over capacity. (Whitman too, but planning for an addition is already underway.) Whatever formula is created for Woodward, it will need to absorb students from those 4 schools, which means there's no way 3 elementaries are being moved out of BCC to Woodward.

Numbers don't lie: Woodward will draw from WJ and DCC. Other schools will be left mostly intact with small adjustments.

[Anonymous]

Is it even a done deal that Woodward is reopening rather than WJ expanding? We got a survey about preferences for that a while back but don’t remember a result being announced.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Geographically and logically, KP and GP ES will likely be zoned for Woodward. The question is whether Farmland and Luxmanor will be included too, because that area also used to attend Woodward before it closed. The presentations make it seem like Woodward will include a few Wheaton/Einstein ES to relieve DCC crowding. That leaves WJ with some open space to relieve some crowding at BCC and Whitman. If that's the case, the new WJ will probably be similar to the current WJ and Woodward will probably be similar to RM when they absorbed Ritchie Park in the 80's. Similarly-sized homes in Horizon Hill are slightly newer and have better layouts than those in Fox Hills West, but the prices are always off by 50-100k because FHW is zoned to Wootton. You can also see a similar pricing differential in Montgomery Square north (RM) and south (Churchill) of Montrose. Your best bet to stay at WJ would be Ashburton or Wyngate, but in the end, it's still a bet because nothing's official. Crapshoot.

I'm not sure how we're defining "geographically and logically," since this is all speculation. But it seems to me the most logical way to split the WJ feeder schools would be to have the schools feeding to NBMS (Ashburton, KP, and Wyngate) go on to WJ, and the schools feeding to Tilden (Farmland, GP, Luxmanor) go on to Woodward. Then add in one or two more contiguous elementaries from whichever direction needs the capacity relief.

Exactly, WJ and Woodward both will have 3 Elementary schools from current WJ boundary. each will pick up 2 more elementary schools. Woodward is pretty much guaranteed to pick 2 from DCC and WJ may pick on from DCC and one from BCC/Whitman. If you look at MCPS projections and BCC addition, most liekly case will be WJ also picking 2 elementary schools from BCC.

WJ should be NBMS (Ashburton, KP, and Wyngate) + 2 elementary schools from DCC
Woodward should be Tilden (Farmland, GP, Luxmanor) + 2 elementary schools from DCC.

You are misreading the stats. With the addition that's currently underway, BCC will not be significantly over capacity for at least 15 years. (Projected to be 92 over capacity in 2031.) Obviously reality may outstrip projections, but meanwhile, Einstein, Blair, WJ, and Northwood are CURRENTLY hundreds over capacity. (Whitman too, but planning for an addition is already underway.) Whatever formula is created for Woodward, it will need to absorb students from those 4 schools, which means there's no way 3 elementaries are being moved out of BCC to Woodward.

Numbers don't lie: Woodward will draw from WJ and DCC. Other schools will be left mostly intact with small adjustments.

Not sure where I said 3 elementaries from BCC will join Woodward.

I am pretty much agreeing with your view here. WJ+Woodward will take 4 elementary schools from DCC. I only said that 1 can come from BCC as part of boundary alignment, but over all Woodward is mainly to solve crowd issue in WJ and DCC. WJ and Woodward will have lower reputation and test scores no matter how they divide boundary. You can't simply add 3-4 elementary school from DCC and still maintain the same test scores.

[Anonymous]

^ oops , I found my typo. I meant to say WJ will also pick 2 from DCC. I by mistake put BCC. Ignore my earlier reply.

Thanks for catching it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Is it even a done deal that Woodward is reopening rather than WJ expanding? We got a survey about preferences for that a while back but don’t remember a result being announced.

Woodward is coming. WJ is not getting an expansion. Read MCPS CIP.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Is it even a done deal that Woodward is reopening rather than WJ expanding? We got a survey about preferences for that a while back but don’t remember a result being announced.

http://www.bethesdamagazine.com/Bethesda-Beat/2017/Funding-To-Reopen-Woodward-High-Appears-in-MCPS-Superintendents-New-Budget-Plan/

https://apps.montgomerycountymd.gov/BASISCAPITAL/Common/Project.aspx?ID=P651908

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Is it even a done deal that Woodward is reopening rather than WJ expanding? We got a survey about preferences for that a while back but don’t remember a result being announced.

http://www.bethesdamagazine.com/Bethesda-Beat/2017/Funding-To-Reopen-Woodward-High-Appears-in-MCPS-Superintendents-New-Budget-Plan/

https://apps.montgomerycountymd.gov/BASISCAPITAL/Common/Project.aspx?ID=P651908

Okay okay. I’m the PP who’s not worrried either way. Just don’t remember an announcement.

[Anonymous]

Our neighbors want to sell their house in WJ and I was telling them to do it before everyone realizes that WJ will look a lot different. They are 80 years old couple and bought original house here.

Some out of town buyers may not know about Woodward and many agents are clueless as well. I am saying that based on talking to agents during few open house in WJ cluster. I will also take some hit when we decide to sell, but it's not in near future.

Having said that Woodward will not be too far below RM and QO. It's not going to become Einstein or Wheaton.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Geographically and logically, KP and GP ES will likely be zoned for Woodward. The question is whether Farmland and Luxmanor will be included too, because that area also used to attend Woodward before it closed. The presentations make it seem like Woodward will include a few Wheaton/Einstein ES to relieve DCC crowding. That leaves WJ with some open space to relieve some crowding at BCC and Whitman. If that's the case, the new WJ will probably be similar to the current WJ and Woodward will probably be similar to RM when they absorbed Ritchie Park in the 80's. Similarly-sized homes in Horizon Hill are slightly newer and have better layouts than those in Fox Hills West, but the prices are always off by 50-100k because FHW is zoned to Wootton. You can also see a similar pricing differential in Montgomery Square north (RM) and south (Churchill) of Montrose. Your best bet to stay at WJ would be Ashburton or Wyngate, but in the end, it's still a bet because nothing's official. Crapshoot.

I'm not sure how we're defining "geographically and logically," since this is all speculation. But it seems to me the most logical way to split the WJ feeder schools would be to have the schools feeding to NBMS (Ashburton, KP, and Wyngate) go on to WJ, and the schools feeding to Tilden (Farmland, GP, Luxmanor) go on to Woodward. Then add in one or two more contiguous elementaries from whichever direction needs the capacity relief.

Exactly, WJ and Woodward both will have 3 Elementary schools from current WJ boundary. each will pick up 2 more elementary schools. Woodward is pretty much guaranteed to pick 2 from DCC and WJ may pick on from DCC and one from BCC/Whitman. If you look at MCPS projections and BCC addition, most liekly case will be WJ also picking 2 elementary schools from BCC.

WJ should be NBMS (Ashburton, KP, and Wyngate) + 2 elementary schools from DCC
Woodward should be Tilden (Farmland, GP, Luxmanor) + 2 elementary schools from DCC.

You are misreading the stats. With the addition that's currently underway, BCC will not be significantly over capacity for at least 15 years. (Projected to be 92 over capacity in 2031.) Obviously reality may outstrip projections, but meanwhile, Einstein, Blair, WJ, and Northwood are CURRENTLY hundreds over capacity. (Whitman too, but planning for an addition is already underway.) Whatever formula is created for Woodward, it will need to absorb students from those 4 schools, which means there's no way 3 elementaries are being moved out of BCC to Woodward.

Numbers don't lie: Woodward will draw from WJ and DCC. Other schools will be left mostly intact with small adjustments.

Not sure where I said 3 elementaries from BCC will join Woodward.

I am pretty much agreeing with your view here. WJ+Woodward will take 4 elementary schools from DCC. I only said that 1 can come from BCC as part of boundary alignment, but over all Woodward is mainly to solve crowd issue in WJ and DCC. WJ and Woodward will have lower reputation and test scores no matter how they divide boundary. You can't simply add 3-4 elementary school from DCC and still maintain the same test scores.

You could if it was Oakland Terrace but it won't be. More likely Rock View / Viers Mill.

Honestly, very long term I think it will help the whole area. Rock View / Viers Mill will become more desirable and prices will rise. The more run down parts of KTown commercial area will get rehabbed under new sector plan and the historic areas will stay protected. Also, let's not forget school crowding will be lessened.

Snobby Bethesda folks will be more likely to move to Parkwood / Byeford b/c we won't be "on the edge" anymore -- the "edge" will move. The hip kids living downtown will be more likely to take another look our way if they can spend $600k to get into WJ / Woodward rather than roll the dice on increasingly marginal / far flung parts of DC (Brightwood / Deanwood -- not actually close to the action and schools will be troubled for a while).

I expect no impact / slight rise for BCC part of Kensington. Good apprection for areas moved out of DCc. Temporary dip for WJ folks after the reshuffling but will stabilize when people realize no Armageddon.

I hope the leaders of our county are going to do this in a way that creates another slightly more equitable, reasonably high performing "W" school. They don't want to destabilize Kensington the way some parts of SS were impacted when the DCC was created. WJ is one of the jewels in the system and the White Flint area is THE PRIME area in the county for future commercial growth.

Personally I'm looking forward to being in between Bethesda and a booming Whitr Flint and a bunch of good school options (none of which will be Whitman, but not Watkins Mill either). As traffic gets worse and people look more for walk ability / short commutes we could end up with among the most desirable locations to raise a family in the DMV.

Of course I drank the kool-aid already, that's why I bought here. ?

[Anonymous]

I’m with you, PP! Pass the kool aid!