Is It the Beginning of the End for Suburbia

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The suburbs are always going to be around.
Bus and metro transportation will expand tremendously. Where buses run every 30 min, they will run every 5 minutes. The subways will be like a spider web, with stops all over. Large vehicles will run on natural gas, Stores will move out to the suburbs, and at the minimum, kiosks all over. The old fashioned "General Store" will be back in business. Tons of bike paths, mopeds and segways. We will still have automobiles powered by ethanol, electricity (coal), solar boost, and so on. Wind and solar will add to electricity at home to run cars. BTW, we have enough coal to make electricity, if not, nuclear.
Doomsdayers need to relax.

You sound just like a middle-class resident of Detroit circa 1968.

There's a big cultural shift going on. That coupled with marginal changes in the cost of suburban living are going to result in big changes. Leaving aside the idea that all our cars are going to run on ethanol, you still don't address the massive growth in suburban poverty, and the well-documented change in tastes among the Millennial demographic.

Everything always stays the same until it doesn't.

of course younger people prefer the cities. once they get married and have kids, many will prefer the suburbs. just like me.

[Anonymous]

This is how it goes in DC

Stage 1: I walk from my 2 bedroom condo to the grocery store pushing my toddler in a stroller. We walk to a different every night. I say "walkable" a lot. I am so responsible!

Stage 2: I live in a 3 bedroom townhome. Heating bills suck but I push my 3 year old to preschool in a double stroller eith my 1 year old. But it's only 25 minutes each way. DH got a job in Dulles so he drives but it is a mini so street parking is easy. Sometimes I use it for groceries. Who knew two kids could ear so much.

Stage 3: We got our small suv to take our five year old to charter school, soccer and gymnastics and still get the 3 year old to preschool. I just figured out that it is faster to go to the target in va but we still walk to dinner once in a while. I might have to go back to work but then the nanny would need a car too. Maybe my job will be on the red line It's kind of tight in the townhouse maybe we can expand up but it's a lot of money Hmmm.

Stage 4: We just moved to VA. Kids are going to Arlington Science Focus and a coop preschool five minutes away. Loved the city but it was time to move.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The suburbs are always going to be around.
Bus and metro transportation will expand tremendously. Where buses run every 30 min, they will run every 5 minutes. The subways will be like a spider web, with stops all over. Large vehicles will run on natural gas, Stores will move out to the suburbs, and at the minimum, kiosks all over. The old fashioned "General Store" will be back in business. Tons of bike paths, mopeds and segways. We will still have automobiles powered by ethanol, electricity (coal), solar boost, and so on. Wind and solar will add to electricity at home to run cars. BTW, we have enough coal to make electricity, if not, nuclear.
Doomsdayers need to relax.

You sound just like a middle-class resident of Detroit circa 1968.

There's a big cultural shift going on. That coupled with marginal changes in the cost of suburban living are going to result in big changes. Leaving aside the idea that all our cars are going to run on ethanol, you still don't address the massive growth in suburban poverty, and the well-documented change in tastes among the Millennial demographic.

Everything always stays the same until it doesn't.

I'm sure that's a comforting thought as suburban real estate values continues to tank and the suburban poverty crisis spirals out of control, but those "kids" are now in their 30s, have kids, and are prioritizing close-in communities.

of course younger people prefer the cities. once they get married and have kids, many will prefer the suburbs. just like me.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The suburbs are always going to be around.
Bus and metro transportation will expand tremendously. Where buses run every 30 min, they will run every 5 minutes. The subways will be like a spider web, with stops all over. Large vehicles will run on natural gas, Stores will move out to the suburbs, and at the minimum, kiosks all over. The old fashioned "General Store" will be back in business. Tons of bike paths, mopeds and segways. We will still have automobiles powered by ethanol, electricity (coal), solar boost, and so on. Wind and solar will add to electricity at home to run cars. BTW, we have enough coal to make electricity, if not, nuclear.
Doomsdayers need to relax.

You sound just like a middle-class resident of Detroit circa 1968.

There's a big cultural shift going on. That coupled with marginal changes in the cost of suburban living are going to result in big changes. Leaving aside the idea that all our cars are going to run on ethanol, you still don't address the massive growth in suburban poverty, and the well-documented change in tastes among the Millennial demographic.

Everything always stays the same until it doesn't.

I'm sure that's a comforting thought as suburban real estate values continues to tank and the suburban poverty crisis spirals out of control, but those "kids" are now in their 30s, have kids, and are prioritizing close-in communities.

of course younger people prefer the cities. once they get married and have kids, many will prefer the suburbs. just like me.

The Millenials will be the most price-sensitive generation in a long time because they are not accumulating wealth due to the job market and the stock market. When they have kids, they will buy where they can afford and where public schools are good, and they will take jobs where they can get them. That means they will own cars and live in the burbs. The most successful may be able to stay in the city. But just like now, more than half of those will commute back out.

[Anonymous]

PP, just keep in mind: NOT EVERYONE WORKS IN DC!!! Even one of the largest employers in DC, the Washington Hospital Center complex is not in downtown center and does not have a subway stop. I work in MD and two of my lawyer friends have NEVER worked in DC, they are in Rockville. There will be new city centers and there will always be families that are too large to consider city living (in laws and four kids).
Cool it guys, you act as if you are buying into a FUTURE class of the haves vs. the have nots.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is how it goes in DC

Stage 1: I walk from my 2 bedroom condo to the grocery store pushing my toddler in a stroller. We walk to a different every night. I say "walkable" a lot. I am so responsible!

Stage 2: I live in a 3 bedroom townhome. Heating bills suck but I push my 3 year old to preschool in a double stroller eith my 1 year old. But it's only 25 minutes each way. DH got a job in Dulles so he drives but it is a mini so street parking is easy. Sometimes I use it for groceries. Who knew two kids could ear so much.

Stage 3: We got our small suv to take our five year old to charter school, soccer and gymnastics and still get the 3 year old to preschool. I just figured out that it is faster to go to the target in va but we still walk to dinner once in a while. I might have to go back to work but then the nanny would need a car too. Maybe my job will be on the red line It's kind of tight in the townhouse maybe we can expand up but it's a lot of money Hmmm.

Stage 4: We just moved to VA. Kids are going to Arlington Science Focus and a coop preschool five minutes away. Loved the city but it was time to move.

I believe Ashburn and Stafford are calling these people (Stafford for the folks still working in DC/Arlington/Alexandria.)

Maybe downtown Leesburg or Fredericksburg if they really meant all the stuff in Stages 1 and 2, but we're talking GRANITE COUNTERTOPS if they moved to Ashburn or Stafford's equivalent thereof. And with an older house in Leesburg or Fredericksburg, they just don't come included.

Remember, vote early and vote Republican! (Or you can be a closet Democrat like me.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The suburbs are always going to be around.
Bus and metro transportation will expand tremendously. Where buses run every 30 min, they will run every 5 minutes. The subways will be like a spider web, with stops all over. Large vehicles will run on natural gas, Stores will move out to the suburbs, and at the minimum, kiosks all over. The old fashioned "General Store" will be back in business. Tons of bike paths, mopeds and segways. We will still have automobiles powered by ethanol, electricity (coal), solar boost, and so on. Wind and solar will add to electricity at home to run cars. BTW, we have enough coal to make electricity, if not, nuclear.
Doomsdayers need to relax.

You sound just like a middle-class resident of Detroit circa 1968.

There's a big cultural shift going on. That coupled with marginal changes in the cost of suburban living are going to result in big changes. Leaving aside the idea that all our cars are going to run on ethanol, you still don't address the massive growth in suburban poverty, and the well-documented change in tastes among the Millennial demographic.

Everything always stays the same until it doesn't.

I'm sure that's a comforting thought as suburban real estate values continues to tank and the suburban poverty crisis spirals out of control, but those "kids" are now in their 30s, have kids, and are prioritizing close-in communities.

of course younger people prefer the cities. once they get married and have kids, many will prefer the suburbs. just like me.

The Millenials will be the most price-sensitive generation in a long time because they are not accumulating wealth due to the job market and the stock market. When they have kids, they will buy where they can afford and where public schools are good, and they will take jobs where they can get them. That means they will own cars and live in the burbs. The most successful may be able to stay in the city. But just like now, more than half of those will commute back out.

I agree that the poorest of the poor will be living in the suburbs--but that's of all ages. Most middle-class millennials will be gentrifying inner-ring urban areas like Hyattsville, and parts of DC.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/07/how-the-great-reset-has-already-changed-america/241200/

[Anonymous]

I read page one and haven't been back to this thread so I apologize if I'm rehashing. If suburbia is ending, where do all those people go? I mean, across the nation my hunch is that more people live in suburbs than in truly urban areas (I'm talking Capitol Hill, not AU Park). How do those millions cram into the urban city center, presuming they even want to?

The way in which suburbia develops may change, hopefully for the better, but the realities of space and size mean that the entire DC area won't be moving to Brookland any time soon.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I read page one and haven't been back to this thread so I apologize if I'm rehashing. If suburbia is ending, where do all those people go? I mean, across the nation my hunch is that more people live in suburbs than in truly urban areas (I'm talking Capitol Hill, not AU Park). How do those millions cram into the urban city center, presuming they even want to?

The way in which suburbia develops may change, hopefully for the better, but the realities of space and size mean that the entire DC area won't be moving to Brookland any time soon.

The suburbs that manage to become more urban in a planned and orderly way succeed--and gain more residents--the suburban areas that don't will increasingly either be the exclusive enclaves of the very wealthy, or slum housing for the very poor. A lot of suburbia is going to have the demographic profile of DC in the 80s and 90s: wealthy folks and very poor folks and not a lot in between.

Meanwhile, the defunding of suburbia's life support system by one of the major political parties should help the process along:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/house-gop-expected-to-ax-transportation-funds/2011/07/05/gHQAt9HkzH_story.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I read page one and haven't been back to this thread so I apologize if I'm rehashing. If suburbia is ending, where do all those people go? I mean, across the nation my hunch is that more people live in suburbs than in truly urban areas (I'm talking Capitol Hill, not AU Park). How do those millions cram into the urban city center, presuming they even want to?

The way in which suburbia develops may change, hopefully for the better, but the realities of space and size mean that the entire DC area won't be moving to Brookland any time soon.

Also, just to address your point "presuming they even want to": you seem to be laboring under the sophomoric conceit that everyone's going to get exactly what they want in the years to come. There were a lot of middle-class folks who would've loved to raise kids in the city back in the 70s, 80s, and 90s but because of cultural and economic forces, couldn't. Welcome to the 21st century. The way things are going, in 10-20 years, folks will be moving back into the city for the schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I read page one and haven't been back to this thread so I apologize if I'm rehashing. If suburbia is ending, where do all those people go? I mean, across the nation my hunch is that more people live in suburbs than in truly urban areas (I'm talking Capitol Hill, not AU Park). How do those millions cram into the urban city center, presuming they even want to?

The way in which suburbia develops may change, hopefully for the better, but the realities of space and size mean that the entire DC area won't be moving to Brookland any time soon.

Also, just to address your point "presuming they even want to": you seem to be laboring under the sophomoric conceit that everyone's going to get exactly what they want in the years to come. There were a lot of middle-class folks who would've loved to raise kids in the city back in the 70s, 80s, and 90s but because of cultural and economic forces, couldn't. Welcome to the 21st century. The way things are going, in 10-20 years, folks will be moving back into the city for the schools.

yes, because the schools in the city are improving so rapidly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I read page one and haven't been back to this thread so I apologize if I'm rehashing. If suburbia is ending, where do all those people go? I mean, across the nation my hunch is that more people live in suburbs than in truly urban areas (I'm talking Capitol Hill, not AU Park). How do those millions cram into the urban city center, presuming they even want to?

The way in which suburbia develops may change, hopefully for the better, but the realities of space and size mean that the entire DC area won't be moving to Brookland any time soon.

Also, just to address your point "presuming they even want to": you seem to be laboring under the sophomoric conceit that everyone's going to get exactly what they want in the years to come. There were a lot of middle-class folks who would've loved to raise kids in the city back in the 70s, 80s, and 90s but because of cultural and economic forces, couldn't. Welcome to the 21st century. The way things are going, in 10-20 years, folks will be moving back into the city for the schools.

Funny how you used sophomoric conceit and "moving back into the city for the schools" all in the same paragraph. There's a mirror in your bathroom. Use it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The suburbs are always going to be around.
Bus and metro transportation will expand tremendously. Where buses run every 30 min, they will run every 5 minutes. The subways will be like a spider web, with stops all over. Large vehicles will run on natural gas, Stores will move out to the suburbs, and at the minimum, kiosks all over. The old fashioned "General Store" will be back in business. Tons of bike paths, mopeds and segways. We will still have automobiles powered by ethanol, electricity (coal), solar boost, and so on. Wind and solar will add to electricity at home to run cars. BTW, we have enough coal to make electricity, if not, nuclear.
Doomsdayers need to relax.

You sound just like a middle-class resident of Detroit circa 1968.

There's a big cultural shift going on. That coupled with marginal changes in the cost of suburban living are going to result in big changes. Leaving aside the idea that all our cars are going to run on ethanol, you still don't address the massive growth in suburban poverty, and the well-documented change in tastes among the Millennial demographic.

Everything always stays the same until it doesn't.

I'm sure that's a comforting thought as suburban real estate values continues to tank and the suburban poverty crisis spirals out of control, but those "kids" are now in their 30s, have kids, and are prioritizing close-in communities.

of course younger people prefer the cities. once they get married and have kids, many will prefer the suburbs. just like me.

The Millenials will be the most price-sensitive generation in a long time because they are not accumulating wealth due to the job market and the stock market. When they have kids, they will buy where they can afford and where public schools are good, and they will take jobs where they can get them. That means they will own cars and live in the burbs. The most successful may be able to stay in the city. But just like now, more than half of those will commute back out.

I agree that the poorest of the poor will be living in the suburbs--but that's of all ages. Most middle-class millennials will be gentrifying inner-ring urban areas like Hyattsville, and parts of DC.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/07/how-the-great-reset-has-already-changed-america/241200/

That is an interesting prediction, given the poverty rates in most cities. It is counter-intuitive to say the least.

The millenials will do what other families with kids do. Their social politics may be different, but parenting is parenting. The millenials are not going to live in a 2BR condo once their second kid comes along. Their priorities change as they get older. Sure, some will have lots of cash and can afford the nice house in NW plus private school. But they are not going to sink themselves financially so that they can walk to brunch.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Also, just to address your point "presuming they even want to": you seem to be laboring under the sophomoric conceit that everyone's going to get exactly what they want in the years to come. There were a lot of middle-class folks who would've loved to raise kids in the city back in the 70s, 80s, and 90s but because of cultural and economic forces, couldn't. Welcome to the 21st century. The way things are going, in 10-20 years, folks will be moving back into the city for the schools.

and you're laboring under the sophomoric conceit that everyone will want to move into the city. Many may want more walkable communities, but that doesn't mean everyone wants Dupont Circle or SoHo. Reston Town Center or Clarendon might be sufficiently friendly for their desires.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Also, just to address your point "presuming they even want to": you seem to be laboring under the sophomoric conceit that everyone's going to get exactly what they want in the years to come. There were a lot of middle-class folks who would've loved to raise kids in the city back in the 70s, 80s, and 90s but because of cultural and economic forces, couldn't. Welcome to the 21st century. The way things are going, in 10-20 years, folks will be moving back into the city for the schools.

and you're laboring under the sophomoric conceit that everyone will want to move into the city. Many may want more walkable communities, but that doesn't mean everyone wants Dupont Circle or SoHo. Reston Town Center or Clarendon might be sufficiently friendly for their desires.

Again, it's a hallmark of whiny suburban America that we think things in the very near future will be driven by what "everyone will want". Not "everyone" wanted to move out of the city in the 70s. Tough shit. Clarendon is already not particularly "suburban". There's a lot of blather about how Reston Town Center or Tysons are going to manage to become more walkable, but they keep fucking it up.

To paraphrase Trotsky, sometimes war is interested in you.