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Is It the Beginning of the End for Suburbia
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Anonymous
If it were 1950, you'd be sitting in a cramped NY apartment, bitching and moaning about how all those middle-class folks moving into the suburbs will come to nothing but ruin. It's always sad to see people fighting the last war. Buying a McMansion in anticipation of the next great century of cul-de-sac living is like watching the French building the Maginot Line in anticipation of WWII. |
Anonymous
Yeah I lived in the District. And I have lived in the suburbs. I own places in both. The average urbanist in DC is a pre-hypocrite. Full of smug confidence, but the fact is (a) DC is barely urban, (b) most of its urban-ness is retail which is to say shopping, and (c) most people stick it out until their kids are elementary or middle school, and they either move to the virtual burbs in NW DC, move to the real burbs, or they are poor and stay where they are. Try finding families with high school students in Logan Circle. They exist, but come on. There must be fifty strollers for every kid on a bike. |
Anonymous
| Hey, you know where the absolute *lowest* number of auto related pedestrian fatalities is? Inside of shopping malls! (At least if you exclude the parking garages). |
Anonymous
Ah, those pre-hypocrites moving to Levittown!! They'll be back once their kids hit middle school age. No one could subject their kids to such a sterile existence! 
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Anonymous
And yet, where are the older kids? They just aren't there, except for the lower income demographic. Seriously, how many teenagers are putting up flyers to babysit in your condo building? How many older kids, middle-upper income, do you see going to and from school, sports, etc. I know exactly what my DC neighborhood looks like. One to two stroller-aged kids per family. Then most depart, a few send their kids to a private school or go to a charter, and that's it. Do you even know any middle school kids in your neighborhood? |
Anonymous
As it was in the beginning, is now, and ever shall be, world without end. Amen. |
Anonymous
| Mock, but it's true. The city has a problem, and that problem is that it can't hold onto the middle class families. |
Anonymous
Yes- we have several (fairly well-heeled) middle and high school kids on our Adams Morgan block. There are two teens in my co-op building and 3 elementary-aged kids, all DCPS students, plus several babies and toddlers. Of course, unlike most of urban DC, we're zoned for Oyster/Deal/Wilson, which helps keep the kid population high. |
Anonymous
Correction: the city had a problem holding on to middle class families. Ten years ago it had a problem holding on to middle-class families period. It now has significantly less of a problem holding onto middle class families with primary grade children. It's having less and less of a problem holding on to middle-class families with middle-school children. The trends are quite clear. Add to that the fact that fewer and fewer people are choosing to have children, and the fact that as the massive number of baby boomers age, many are divesting themselves of suburban mcmansions. The demographic change is accelerating. We often here from folks who felt they had to move out of the city when their kids became of school age. Sorry the change didn't come about soon enough for you. But we're talking about the future here, not the past. |
Anonymous
Seeing more and more of this on Cap Hill, too. The child population appears to be diversifying as it ages. Again, the demographic changes are things happening now, and in the future--not 5, 10, or 15 years ago. |
Anonymous
| So rich folks can stay in DC past the middle school years. What about those folks who aren't making $200k a year and/or prefer not to cough up $30k a year in private school tuition? |
Anonymous
Why, in the short-term they'll have to move. And DINKs, empty-nesters, and wealthy people with kids will continue to pour into the city. Of course, as pressure builds on suburbia, there'll be less incentive to move out, and more incentive to stay put leading to an incremental improvement in individual schools. As we've already seen at the elementary school level. |
Anonymous
| They (we) don't *have* to move. My kid will go to Walls or Wilson, and while I'm not thrilled, they are acceptable solutions, and the child will continue to be one of many very bright students in her school. |
Anonymous
Unfortunately the numbers tell a different story. Here are the population statistics for <20 population for key wards and Fairfax County. Fairfax County: 27% DC Ward 1: 16.0 (21.9) (parentheses are from 2000) DC Ward 2: 13.3 (16.5) DC Ward 3: 17.2 (15.6%) DC Ward 6: 14.6 (18.7%) This is a huge discrepancy. On top of it, most wards (except for ward 3) actually went down. And I'm not going to calculate the absolute population numbers by ward, which you can do on DC's census site, but overall the District lost a total of 12,000 kids 19 and under. There was a startling 26% drop among 5-9 year olds, and a 16.6% drop of 10-14 year olds. Wake up. Your impression of what is going on in your city is not borne out by the data. The relative population of kids is way lower than the counties. And the absolute numbers of children are going down in the critical age groups that you cite. |
Anonymous
| How many of these kids belong to poor families pushed out into the 'burbs? Not the same kind of issue. |