Is It the Beginning of the End for Suburbia

[Anonymous]

It looks to me like taxes are identical.

Pricing is usually based on the route of passing traffic and the number of available alternatives farther down the route. In DC those are few. In the suburbs it is mire common to pass several stations or even have a choice at one intersection.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I think it is not accurate to say that we have reached the end for oil output. We are on a consumption path that is dangerous but those are two different things.

No one made the claim that we've "reached the end for oil output." The post- peak-oil claim is that we've entered a phase of declining production. The claim that "the oil is out there" doesn't really mean much--the question isn't whether we're out of oil, it's whether new production can meet ever-increasing demand. The only thing that prevented a continuation of oil shortages and price shocks from the 70s into the 80s was the discovery of Prudhoe Bay and the North Sea fields. Now we're back on pace.

Running out of oil is not going to happen. Oil shortages and price increases that are going to make the 70s look like a walk in the park will be. It's funny that a lot of folks in suburbia talk about how they don't care if gas goes to $10 / gallon. How about gas at $7 per gallon, but you can only buy 5 gallons? And only on Tuesdays and Fridays?

So since your crystal ball is so good I guess you have very heavy options positions on oil, right?

No I didn't think so.

This is silly. Pointing out that there's a very good chance of a major (and enduring) oil shock in the next decade is quite a bit different from commodity speculation. I've already made my bet: I'm heavily leveraged in urban real estate. In other words, I'm shorting the 'burbs, not going long on oil.

[Anonymous]

Why we're no more likely to all be teleworking than to travel around in pneumatic tubes:

http://www.workshifting.com/2011/06/the-who-what-where-and-why-not-of-telecommuting.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I think it is not accurate to say that we have reached the end for oil output. We are on a consumption path that is dangerous but those are two different things.

No one made the claim that we've "reached the end for oil output." The post- peak-oil claim is that we've entered a phase of declining production. The claim that "the oil is out there" doesn't really mean much--the question isn't whether we're out of oil, it's whether new production can meet ever-increasing demand. The only thing that prevented a continuation of oil shortages and price shocks from the 70s into the 80s was the discovery of Prudhoe Bay and the North Sea fields. Now we're back on pace.

Running out of oil is not going to happen. Oil shortages and price increases that are going to make the 70s look like a walk in the park will be. It's funny that a lot of folks in suburbia talk about how they don't care if gas goes to $10 / gallon. How about gas at $7 per gallon, but you can only buy 5 gallons? And only on Tuesdays and Fridays?

So since your crystal ball is so good I guess you have very heavy options positions on oil, right?

No I didn't think so.

This is silly. Pointing out that there's a very good chance of a major (and enduring) oil shock in the next decade is quite a bit different from commodity speculation. I've already made my bet: I'm heavily leveraged in urban real estate. In other words, I'm shorting the 'burbs, not going long on oil.

The difference is putting your money where your mouth is. And being heavily leveraged does not improve your reputation.

It is one thing to expect an oil shock. It is another to think it will validate your lifestyle. I think the odds are higher that in ten years you will be driving your kids to recitals practice and schools than for the burbs to disappear. That would be faux urban.

[Anonymous]

"The number of folks who live and work in the same place is very small."

Thank goodness I was smart enough to be one of them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I think it is not accurate to say that we have reached the end for oil output. We are on a consumption path that is dangerous but those are two different things.

No one made the claim that we've "reached the end for oil output." The post- peak-oil claim is that we've entered a phase of declining production. The claim that "the oil is out there" doesn't really mean much--the question isn't whether we're out of oil, it's whether new production can meet ever-increasing demand. The only thing that prevented a continuation of oil shortages and price shocks from the 70s into the 80s was the discovery of Prudhoe Bay and the North Sea fields. Now we're back on pace.

Running out of oil is not going to happen. Oil shortages and price increases that are going to make the 70s look like a walk in the park will be. It's funny that a lot of folks in suburbia talk about how they don't care if gas goes to $10 / gallon. How about gas at $7 per gallon, but you can only buy 5 gallons? And only on Tuesdays and Fridays?

So since your crystal ball is so good I guess you have very heavy options positions on oil, right?

No I didn't think so.

This is silly. Pointing out that there's a very good chance of a major (and enduring) oil shock in the next decade is quite a bit different from commodity speculation. I've already made my bet: I'm heavily leveraged in urban real estate. In other words, I'm shorting the 'burbs, not going long on oil.

The difference is putting your money where your mouth is. And being heavily leveraged does not improve your reputation.

It is one thing to expect an oil shock. It is another to think it will validate your lifestyle. I think the odds are higher that in ten years you will be driving your kids to recitals practice and schools than for the burbs to disappear. That would be faux urban.

Since you didn't seem to understand the response (or the market for that matter) an analogy: it was obvious by 2005 to anybody with half a brain that there was a housing bubble in the DC suburbs, and in the US in general. It's one thing to say that there was going to be a collpapse in the price of housing, it was another thing entirely to make money shorting financial institutions that would suffer from it. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. But the fact that we don't know if the shit is going to hit the fan in 2012 or in 2016 doesn't invalidate what's plain to anyone with eyes to see.

As far as "being heavily leveraged does not improve your reputation": Thanks for your concern, did you get that from Suze Orman? This is an anonymous internet forum; none of us have reputations to "improve".

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:"The number of folks who live and work in the same place is very small."

Thank goodness I was smart enough to be one of them.

Oh, stop validating your lifestyle! You're gonna make PP cry.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I think it is not accurate to say that we have reached the end for oil output. We are on a consumption path that is dangerous but those are two different things.

No one made the claim that we've "reached the end for oil output." The post- peak-oil claim is that we've entered a phase of declining production. The claim that "the oil is out there" doesn't really mean much--the question isn't whether we're out of oil, it's whether new production can meet ever-increasing demand. The only thing that prevented a continuation of oil shortages and price shocks from the 70s into the 80s was the discovery of Prudhoe Bay and the North Sea fields. Now we're back on pace.

Running out of oil is not going to happen. Oil shortages and price increases that are going to make the 70s look like a walk in the park will be. It's funny that a lot of folks in suburbia talk about how they don't care if gas goes to $10 / gallon. How about gas at $7 per gallon, but you can only buy 5 gallons? And only on Tuesdays and Fridays?

So since your crystal ball is so good I guess you have very heavy options positions on oil, right?

No I didn't think so.

This is silly. Pointing out that there's a very good chance of a major (and enduring) oil shock in the next decade is quite a bit different from commodity speculation. I've already made my bet: I'm heavily leveraged in urban real estate. In other words, I'm shorting the 'burbs, not going long on oil.

The difference is putting your money where your mouth is. And being heavily leveraged does not improve your reputation.

It is one thing to expect an oil shock. It is another to think it will validate your lifestyle. I think the odds are higher that in ten years you will be driving your kids to recitals practice and schools than for the burbs to disappear. That would be faux urban.

Since you didn't seem to understand the response (or the market for that matter) an analogy: it was obvious by 2005 to anybody with half a brain that there was a housing bubble in the DC suburbs, and in the US in general. It's one thing to say that there was going to be a collpapse in the price of housing, it was another thing entirely to make money shorting financial institutions that would suffer from it. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. But the fact that we don't know if the shit is going to hit the fan in 2012 or in 2016 doesn't invalidate what's plain to anyone with eyes to see.

As far as "being heavily leveraged does not improve your reputation": Thanks for your concern, did you get that from Suze Orman? This is an anonymous internet forum; none of us have reputations to "improve".

Your reputation on this forum is the sum of the advice you give. In your case you think it is smart to be highly leveraged in real estate. That does not make you particularly believable.

And as for your 2012-2016 timing concern, then the 2018 contracts at $100 should be a steal. And you can even go farther out if you like. Since the shit hitting the fan is plain to see, it is irrational for you not to invest over the long term. Unless it is not so plain to see after all.

[Anonymous]

New poster. I'm worried since I live in Gtown and need a bigger house. The reason I'm worried is because many of the super rich/brilliant people I know are beginning to rent homes. They don't believe real estate anywhere is a smart investment.

I can name nearly a dozen families who are renting homes and/or apartments for more than $8k a month. Two of them are renting for more than $15k a month. These are people who are always ahead of bubbles. They cash out before the rest of us are caught.

[Anonymous]

The suburbs are always going to be around.
Bus and metro transportation will expand tremendously. Where buses run every 30 min, they will run every 5 minutes. The subways will be like a spider web, with stops all over. Large vehicles will run on natural gas, Stores will move out to the suburbs, and at the minimum, kiosks all over. The old fashioned "General Store" will be back in business. Tons of bike paths, mopeds and segways. We will still have automobiles powered by ethanol, electricity (coal), solar boost, and so on. Wind and solar will add to electricity at home to run cars. BTW, we have enough coal to make electricity, if not, nuclear.
Doomsdayers need to relax.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The suburbs are always going to be around.
Bus and metro transportation will expand tremendously. Where buses run every 30 min, they will run every 5 minutes. The subways will be like a spider web, with stops all over. Large vehicles will run on natural gas, Stores will move out to the suburbs, and at the minimum, kiosks all over. The old fashioned "General Store" will be back in business. Tons of bike paths, mopeds and segways. We will still have automobiles powered by ethanol, electricity (coal), solar boost, and so on. Wind and solar will add to electricity at home to run cars. BTW, we have enough coal to make electricity, if not, nuclear.
Doomsdayers need to relax.

I think you've got some folks who're buying in marginal neighborhoods in DC/Alexandria/Silver Spring/PGC/South Arlington hoping the suburbs implode so their area will get better.

There's a nice place in Ashburn for all of you when you have your second kid or he/she hits kindergarten.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The suburbs are always going to be around.
Bus and metro transportation will expand tremendously. Where buses run every 30 min, they will run every 5 minutes. The subways will be like a spider web, with stops all over. Large vehicles will run on natural gas, Stores will move out to the suburbs, and at the minimum, kiosks all over. The old fashioned "General Store" will be back in business. Tons of bike paths, mopeds and segways. We will still have automobiles powered by ethanol, electricity (coal), solar boost, and so on. Wind and solar will add to electricity at home to run cars. BTW, we have enough coal to make electricity, if not, nuclear.
Doomsdayers need to relax.

I think you've got some folks who're buying in marginal neighborhoods in DC/Alexandria/Silver Spring/PGC/South Arlington hoping the suburbs implode so their area will get better.

There's a nice place in Ashburn for all of you when you have your second kid or he/she hits kindergarten.

There's an oxymoron if I ever heard one.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The suburbs are always going to be around.
Bus and metro transportation will expand tremendously. Where buses run every 30 min, they will run every 5 minutes. The subways will be like a spider web, with stops all over. Large vehicles will run on natural gas, Stores will move out to the suburbs, and at the minimum, kiosks all over. The old fashioned "General Store" will be back in business. Tons of bike paths, mopeds and segways. We will still have automobiles powered by ethanol, electricity (coal), solar boost, and so on. Wind and solar will add to electricity at home to run cars. BTW, we have enough coal to make electricity, if not, nuclear.
Doomsdayers need to relax.

I think you've got some folks who're buying in marginal neighborhoods in DC/Alexandria/Silver Spring/PGC/South Arlington hoping the suburbs implode so their area will get better.

There's a nice place in Ashburn for all of you when you have your second kid or he/she hits kindergarten.

There's an oxymoron if I ever heard one.

Come on, we all know it happens. Those folks coming out to Loudoun aren't all coming from the outside, you know...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The suburbs are always going to be around.
Bus and metro transportation will expand tremendously. Where buses run every 30 min, they will run every 5 minutes. The subways will be like a spider web, with stops all over. Large vehicles will run on natural gas, Stores will move out to the suburbs, and at the minimum, kiosks all over. The old fashioned "General Store" will be back in business. Tons of bike paths, mopeds and segways. We will still have automobiles powered by ethanol, electricity (coal), solar boost, and so on. Wind and solar will add to electricity at home to run cars. BTW, we have enough coal to make electricity, if not, nuclear.
Doomsdayers need to relax.

You sound just like a middle-class resident of Detroit circa 1968.

There's a big cultural shift going on. That coupled with marginal changes in the cost of suburban living are going to result in big changes. Leaving aside the idea that all our cars are going to run on ethanol, you still don't address the massive growth in suburban poverty, and the well-documented change in tastes among the Millennial demographic.

Everything always stays the same until it doesn't.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The suburbs are always going to be around.
Bus and metro transportation will expand tremendously. Where buses run every 30 min, they will run every 5 minutes. The subways will be like a spider web, with stops all over. Large vehicles will run on natural gas, Stores will move out to the suburbs, and at the minimum, kiosks all over. The old fashioned "General Store" will be back in business. Tons of bike paths, mopeds and segways. We will still have automobiles powered by ethanol, electricity (coal), solar boost, and so on. Wind and solar will add to electricity at home to run cars. BTW, we have enough coal to make electricity, if not, nuclear.
Doomsdayers need to relax.

I think you've got some folks who're buying in marginal neighborhoods in DC/Alexandria/Silver Spring/PGC/South Arlington hoping the suburbs implode so their area will get better.

There's a nice place in Ashburn for all of you when you have your second kid or he/she hits kindergarten.

NO WAY IN HELL!