Predictions for what happens when the SC bans affirmative action?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think many elite schools will go the University of Texas route instead of the University of California route and find other ways to build their classes that preserve or increase diversity and people who wanted "affirmative action" gone will be all butt hurt, like the parents who think their kids deserve TJ.

It's absolutely impossible for private universities to go the UT route. A blanket admission based on even 0.05% of the top students in every high school in the country is impossible numerically and also stupid.

UT's method works for UT because TX is a very diverse state. The same method applied nationally would increase the white population dramatically, and decrease the black population.

If they chose to increase geographic targeting based on race, this would also bring them at risk of racial lawsuits. A company that wants to not hire blacks cannot simply hire only people that live in overwhelmingly white majority neighorboods. That is in fact a cornerstone of anti-discrimination law.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This topic keeps being posted about and I don’t think it’s black people starting these threads. I really don’t think black people, the group that AA supposedly favors the most, are that concerned about how the SC will rule. Whether AA stays or not colleges will still build a diverse class.

It’s white people who think a black kid took their child’s spot who are starting these threads. A ruling banning AA will not work out like they think it will. They will find another group to blame. Watch out Asians.

I’m black with two kids in high school and don’t give a f$@# about the SC ruling. There are plenty of colleges out there. The ironic thing is there WAY more white people thinking they got screwed than black kids at any of these colleges. This isn’t going to solve your perceived problem.

Carry on though with 10 threads a day on this topic hoping somehow Sally can go to Harvard. Newsflash: it’s not happening.

So you disagree that AAs have been given preferential treatment in admissions? Seems delusional to think that and also think it won’t affect your kids.

[Anonymous]

^ nah it’s the Hispanics.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What will be the shakeout when the Supreme Court inevitably bans the use of race in college admissions? I've posted my predictions below. Use the comments to post your own, argue with mine, or just call me racist.

1. Holistic admissions get even squishier - this one seems pretty obvious; it's already happening at the UC schools. Consideration of test scores will go by the wayside and less tangible factors will become more important in a desperate attempt to hold onto whatever diversity can be wrung out of the stone of the post-affirmative action landscape. It won't be enough to maintain current levels of URM enrollment, but it will be something.

2. White flight out of the ivies - Southern and Midwestern flagships, maybe also elite SLACs, will see a boom in applications as white kids shun the ivies as too Asian.

3. Salad days for HBCUs - all those AA students getting newly denied will go somewhere. I suspect this will be looked back on as a second Golden Age for HBCUs.

4. Paradoxically, black and Hispanic enrollment will increase at some non-HBCU/HSI colleges - As the proportion of AA and Hispanic students goes down at elite schools, it is likely to go up at some lower down schools that are not traditionally HBCUs or Hispanic Serving Institutions. I could see ODU, for example, getting very URM.

5. Legacy admissions don't go anywhere - I've seen predictions that in the absence of affirmative action, schools will drop legacy admissions as a gesture of good faith. I could see a couple of less elite schools falling for this, but the big leagues (Harvard, Stanford, etc.) are going to tell the whole world to stick it. In the unpredictable environment caused by the ban on affirmative action, the two biggest reasons for legacy admissions, which are donations and yield protection, become even more compelling.

6. Campus politics get weird - I know they're really weird now, but they get even weirder. I don't know how they could possibly get weirder, but they will.

What do you think?

HBCUs have been experiencing a renaissance for more than 5 years with many receiving record application numbers last year. Believe it or not, there are already kids turning down Ivies to attend HBCUs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What will be the shakeout when the Supreme Court inevitably bans the use of race in college admissions? I've posted my predictions below. Use the comments to post your own, argue with mine, or just call me racist.

1. Holistic admissions get even squishier - this one seems pretty obvious; it's already happening at the UC schools. Consideration of test scores will go by the wayside and less tangible factors will become more important in a desperate attempt to hold onto whatever diversity can be wrung out of the stone of the post-affirmative action landscape. It won't be enough to maintain current levels of URM enrollment, but it will be something.

2. White flight out of the ivies - Southern and Midwestern flagships, maybe also elite SLACs, will see a boom in applications as white kids shun the ivies as too Asian.

3. Salad days for HBCUs - all those AA students getting newly denied will go somewhere. I suspect this will be looked back on as a second Golden Age for HBCUs.

4. Paradoxically, black and Hispanic enrollment will increase at some non-HBCU/HSI colleges - As the proportion of AA and Hispanic students goes down at elite schools, it is likely to go up at some lower down schools that are not traditionally HBCUs or Hispanic Serving Institutions. I could see ODU, for example, getting very URM.

5. Legacy admissions don't go anywhere - I've seen predictions that in the absence of affirmative action, schools will drop legacy admissions as a gesture of good faith. I could see a couple of less elite schools falling for this, but the big leagues (Harvard, Stanford, etc.) are going to tell the whole world to stick it. In the unpredictable environment caused by the ban on affirmative action, the two biggest reasons for legacy admissions, which are donations and yield protection, become even more compelling.

6. Campus politics get weird - I know they're really weird now, but they get even weirder. I don't know how they could possibly get weirder, but they will.

What do you think?

HBCUs have been experiencing a renaissance for more than 5 years with many receiving record application numbers last year. Believe it or not, there are already kids turning down Ivies to attend HBCUs.

A colleague’s kid chose Morehouse over an Ivy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think many elite schools will go the University of Texas route instead of the University of California route and find other ways to build their classes that preserve or increase diversity and people who wanted "affirmative action" gone will be all butt hurt, like the parents who think their kids deserve TJ.

It's absolutely impossible for private universities to go the UT route. A blanket admission based on even 0.05% of the top students in every high school in the country is impossible numerically and also stupid.

UT's method works for UT because TX is a very diverse state. The same method applied nationally would increase the white population dramatically, and decrease the black population.

If they chose to increase geographic targeting based on race, this would also bring them at risk of racial lawsuits. A company that wants to not hire blacks cannot simply hire only people that live in overwhelmingly white majority neighorboods. That is in fact a cornerstone of anti-discrimination law.

I was pretty clear that by "go the UT route" I meant " find other ways to build their classes that preserve or increase diversity", not use the same exact method.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:white people will turn on Asians when their kids continue to get rejected. They’ll need a new scapegoat

This. They will find a new scapegoat and complain.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What will be the shakeout when the Supreme Court inevitably bans the use of race in college admissions? I've posted my predictions below. Use the comments to post your own, argue with mine, or just call me racist.

1. Holistic admissions get even squishier - this one seems pretty obvious; it's already happening at the UC schools. Consideration of test scores will go by the wayside and less tangible factors will become more important in a desperate attempt to hold onto whatever diversity can be wrung out of the stone of the post-affirmative action landscape. It won't be enough to maintain current levels of URM enrollment, but it will be something.

2. White flight out of the ivies - Southern and Midwestern flagships, maybe also elite SLACs, will see a boom in applications as white kids shun the ivies as too Asian.

3. Salad days for HBCUs - all those AA students getting newly denied will go somewhere. I suspect this will be looked back on as a second Golden Age for HBCUs.

4. Paradoxically, black and Hispanic enrollment will increase at some non-HBCU/HSI colleges - As the proportion of AA and Hispanic students goes down at elite schools, it is likely to go up at some lower down schools that are not traditionally HBCUs or Hispanic Serving Institutions. I could see ODU, for example, getting very URM.

5. Legacy admissions don't go anywhere - I've seen predictions that in the absence of affirmative action, schools will drop legacy admissions as a gesture of good faith. I could see a couple of less elite schools falling for this, but the big leagues (Harvard, Stanford, etc.) are going to tell the whole world to stick it. In the unpredictable environment caused by the ban on affirmative action, the two biggest reasons for legacy admissions, which are donations and yield protection, become even more compelling.

6. Campus politics get weird - I know they're really weird now, but they get even weirder. I don't know how they could possibly get weirder, but they will.

What do you think?

HBCUs have been experiencing a renaissance for more than 5 years with many receiving record application numbers last year. Believe it or not, there are already kids turning down Ivies to attend HBCUs.

A colleague’s kid chose Morehouse over an Ivy.

My AA neighbors (2 physician family) are planning a summer of college tours for their daughter and PWIs don’t even seem to be on her radar.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think many elite schools will go the University of Texas route instead of the University of California route and find other ways to build their classes that preserve or increase diversity and people who wanted "affirmative action" gone will be all butt hurt, like the parents who think their kids deserve TJ.

It's absolutely impossible for private universities to go the UT route. A blanket admission based on even 0.05% of the top students in every high school in the country is impossible numerically and also stupid.

UT's method works for UT because TX is a very diverse state. The same method applied nationally would increase the white population dramatically, and decrease the black population.

If they chose to increase geographic targeting based on race, this would also bring them at risk of racial lawsuits. A company that wants to not hire blacks cannot simply hire only people that live in overwhelmingly white majority neighorboods. That is in fact a cornerstone of anti-discrimination law.

I was pretty clear that by "go the UT route" I meant " find other ways to build their classes that preserve or increase diversity", not use the same exact method.

No, that definitely was not clear from what you stated. The "UT route" is a very specific route given that it is unique to UT and A&M. It's the UC's that have tried to "find other ways to build their classes that preserve or increase diversity".

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think many elite schools will go the University of Texas route instead of the University of California route and find other ways to build their classes that preserve or increase diversity and people who wanted "affirmative action" gone will be all butt hurt, like the parents who think their kids deserve TJ.

It's absolutely impossible for private universities to go the UT route. A blanket admission based on even 0.05% of the top students in every high school in the country is impossible numerically and also stupid.

UT's method works for UT because TX is a very diverse state. The same method applied nationally would increase the white population dramatically, and decrease the black population.

If they chose to increase geographic targeting based on race, this would also bring them at risk of racial lawsuits. A company that wants to not hire blacks cannot simply hire only people that live in overwhelmingly white majority neighorboods. That is in fact a cornerstone of anti-discrimination law.

I was pretty clear that by "go the UT route" I meant " find other ways to build their classes that preserve or increase diversity", not use the same exact method.

No, that definitely was not clear from what you stated. The "UT route" is a very specific route given that it is unique to UT and A&M. It's the UC's that have tried to "find other ways to build their classes that preserve or increase diversity".

The UCs have an admissions guarantee for students in the top 9%, but it's a guarantee for a school in the UC system, not for UCLA or Berkeley. That effectively means Merced or Riverside for a lot of students, while other UC schools for students those campuses would have wanted anyway.

[Anonymous]

OP, oozing from your post is your apparent bigotry in the assumption that pocs at your desired universities are admitted due to race.

Affirmative action benefits non-POC women more than ANY protected class.

POCs are fleeing PWIs because they are sick of the bigotry and racism of underperforming privileged kids.

Let that sink in.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Emphasis on SES

I am very hopeful on behalf of my white low income child with solid but not stellar stats!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What will be the shakeout when the Supreme Court inevitably bans the use of race in college admissions? I've posted my predictions below. Use the comments to post your own, argue with mine, or just call me racist.

1. Holistic admissions get even squishier - this one seems pretty obvious; it's already happening at the UC schools. Consideration of test scores will go by the wayside and less tangible factors will become more important in a desperate attempt to hold onto whatever diversity can be wrung out of the stone of the post-affirmative action landscape. It won't be enough to maintain current levels of URM enrollment, but it will be something.

2. White flight out of the ivies - Southern and Midwestern flagships, maybe also elite SLACs, will see a boom in applications as white kids shun the ivies as too Asian.

3. Salad days for HBCUs - all those AA students getting newly denied will go somewhere. I suspect this will be looked back on as a second Golden Age for HBCUs.

4. Paradoxically, black and Hispanic enrollment will increase at some non-HBCU/HSI colleges - As the proportion of AA and Hispanic students goes down at elite schools, it is likely to go up at some lower down schools that are not traditionally HBCUs or Hispanic Serving Institutions. I could see ODU, for example, getting very URM.

5. Legacy admissions don't go anywhere - I've seen predictions that in the absence of affirmative action, schools will drop legacy admissions as a gesture of good faith. I could see a couple of less elite schools falling for this, but the big leagues (Harvard, Stanford, etc.) are going to tell the whole world to stick it. In the unpredictable environment caused by the ban on affirmative action, the two biggest reasons for legacy admissions, which are donations and yield protection, become even more compelling.

6. Campus politics get weird - I know they're really weird now, but they get even weirder. I don't know how they could possibly get weirder, but they will.

What do you think?

HBCUs have been experiencing a renaissance for more than 5 years with many receiving record application numbers last year. Believe it or not, there are already kids turning down Ivies to attend HBCUs.

A colleague’s kid chose Morehouse over an Ivy.

My AA neighbors (2 physician family) are planning a summer of college tours for their daughter and PWIs don’t even seem to be on her radar.

PWI??

Anyone turning down an ivy to attend an academically inferior school with zero diversity is a fool.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP, oozing from your post is your apparent bigotry in the assumption that pocs at your desired universities are admitted due to race.

Affirmative action benefits non-POC women more than ANY protected class.

POCs are fleeing PWIs because they are sick of the bigotry and racism of underperforming privileged kids.

Let that sink in.

You are a racist and you don't understand the college admissions process.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think it will vary. Some schools will be happy to just enroll the best students and other will drop aa in favor of economic diversity

You make it sound like wanting diversity is at odds with enrolling the best students. I find these assumptions to be suspect. Like the posters who define merit as whatever benefits them the most.