Predictions for what happens when the SC bans affirmative action?

[Anonymous]

Prediction? Legacy will no longer be a hook. Boost given to students coming from poor families. Admissions based more on merit. IT IS TIME!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What will be interesting is how it plays out in private day schools. At our non-DMV school, URM is a big boost in college admissions. If you're black and top 10%, you get to choose between HYPS. Top 20-30% URM go to lower ivies. This is a school where we send 5% of the class to Ivies, so it's no Sidwell. At least 50% of the URM kids live in the same neighborhoods as other students with parents who are doctors, lawyers, etc. I just can't see how they're getting in still if colleges actually don't use AA. Outside of URMs, nobody gets into ivies outside the top 10% except the occasional kid to Cornell ED.

I’m assuming URMs attending private day schools have high stats themselves

Yes, they're smart but there's no way they're getting into the schools they're getting into without AA. When someone is ranked 30/200 and is going to Dartmouth or 100/200 and is going to Wesleyan when 10 kids go to Ivies a year, it's clear being Black is a major boost. And these are kids of doctors and law partners.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Emphasis on SES

LOL. Schools are currently looking for ways to admit full-pay African-Americans. That is the perfect candidate for elite schools. They will not turn around admit FA whites in their place, that doesn't add anything on either front. If anything they will prefer full-pay whites. SES is kryptonite for colleges.

Full-pay African American kids from wealthy families are generally high-scoring.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:1. Holistic admissions remains and testing stuff gets squishier
2. Continued emphasis on first gen
3. Top schools will figure out how to take close to as many URMs as they do today. They have zipcode data and other metrics.
4. Nobody leaves the Ivies

In other words, is not as dramatic as people think it will be.

This is it.

[Anonymous]

Would the Supreme Court’s decision impact HS class of 2024? Or would it be the following year? Can Universities change admissions drastically of decision comes as late as July 2023?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Emphasis on SES

LOL. Schools are currently looking for ways to admit full-pay African-Americans. That is the perfect candidate for elite schools. They will not turn around admit FA whites in their place, that doesn't add anything on either front. If anything they will prefer full-pay whites. SES is kryptonite for colleges.

Full-pay African American kids from wealthy families are generally high-scoring.

Lolololololololol. No.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Emphasis on SES

LOL. Schools are currently looking for ways to admit full-pay African-Americans. That is the perfect candidate for elite schools. They will not turn around admit FA whites in their place, that doesn't add anything on either front. If anything they will prefer full-pay whites. SES is kryptonite for colleges.

Agree. The full pay URMs are the ones who are the primary beneficiaries of affirmative action. It should, in my opinion, really only be used to help kids at an economic disadvantage, but that will lead to a huge decline in URMs. The schools will therefore rely even more on “holistic admissions” and won’t document things so as to make future challenges harder.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Would the Supreme Court’s decision impact HS class of 2024? Or would it be the following year? Can Universities change admissions drastically of decision comes as late as July 2023?

I’d expect kids waitlisted this year at schools openly engaging in AA to sue, same with last year and the year before right up to the statute of limitations.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Emphasis on SES

LOL. Schools are currently looking for ways to admit full-pay African-Americans. That is the perfect candidate for elite schools. They will not turn around admit FA whites in their place, that doesn't add anything on either front. If anything they will prefer full-pay whites. SES is kryptonite for colleges.

Agree. The full pay URMs are the ones who are the primary beneficiaries of affirmative action. It should, in my opinion, really only be used to help kids at an economic disadvantage, but that will lead to a huge decline in URMs. The schools will therefore rely even more on “holistic admissions” and won’t document things so as to make future challenges harder.

Doubtful. All it takes is one person in admissions getting disgruntled and reaching out to a class action firm to screw a school. They will all comply

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Would the Supreme Court’s decision impact HS class of 2024? Or would it be the following year? Can Universities change admissions drastically of decision comes as late as July 2023?

I’d expect kids waitlisted this year at schools openly engaging in AA to sue, same with last year and the year before right up to the statute of limitations.

I'm not a lawyer, but I'm sure you're not one either. The schools had a previous Supreme Court decision saying what they were doing was kosher. I don't see how a lawsuit could work retroactively. (Help me out, numerous biglaw partners on this board).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Emphasis on SES

LOL. Schools are currently looking for ways to admit full-pay African-Americans. That is the perfect candidate for elite schools. They will not turn around admit FA whites in their place, that doesn't add anything on either front. If anything they will prefer full-pay whites. SES is kryptonite for colleges.

Agree. The full pay URMs are the ones who are the primary beneficiaries of affirmative action. It should, in my opinion, really only be used to help kids at an economic disadvantage, but that will lead to a huge decline in URMs. The schools will therefore rely even more on “holistic admissions” and won’t document things so as to make future challenges harder.

Doubtful. All it takes is one person in admissions getting disgruntled and reaching out to a class action firm to screw a school. They will all comply

Yeah, but they could "comply" like UC is complying.

[Anonymous]

Black people will turn on Asians when their kids continue to get rejected. They’ll need a new scapegoat

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What will be the shakeout when the Supreme Court inevitably bans the use of race in college admissions? I've posted my predictions below. Use the comments to post your own, argue with mine, or just call me racist.

1. Holistic admissions get even squishier - this one seems pretty obvious; it's already happening at the UC schools. Consideration of test scores will go by the wayside and less tangible factors will become more important in a desperate attempt to hold onto whatever diversity can be wrung out of the stone of the post-affirmative action landscape. It won't be enough to maintain current levels of URM enrollment, but it will be something.

2. White flight out of the ivies - Southern and Midwestern flagships, maybe also elite SLACs, will see a boom in applications as white kids shun the ivies as too Asian.

3. Salad days for HBCUs - all those AA students getting newly denied will go somewhere. I suspect this will be looked back on as a second Golden Age for HBCUs.

4. Paradoxically, black and Hispanic enrollment will increase at some non-HBCU/HSI colleges - As the proportion of AA and Hispanic students goes down at elite schools, it is likely to go up at some lower down schools that are not traditionally HBCUs or Hispanic Serving Institutions. I could see ODU, for example, getting very URM.

5. Legacy admissions don't go anywhere - I've seen predictions that in the absence of affirmative action, schools will drop legacy admissions as a gesture of good faith. I could see a couple of less elite schools falling for this, but the big leagues (Harvard, Stanford, etc.) are going to tell the whole world to stick it. In the unpredictable environment caused by the ban on affirmative action, the two biggest reasons for legacy admissions, which are donations and yield protection, become even more compelling.

6. Campus politics get weird - I know they're really weird now, but they get even weirder. I don't know how they could possibly get weirder, but they will.

What do you think?

I think test scores come back at most places and become more important. Diversity decreases at all elite schools. No white flight out of top schools. Asian numbers will be held down at most places. Legacy is here forever.

[Anonymous]

Won't colleges be able to correctly guess race based on name in a very large number of cases?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Would the Supreme Court’s decision impact HS class of 2024? Or would it be the following year? Can Universities change admissions drastically of decision comes as late as July 2023?

I’d expect kids waitlisted this year at schools openly engaging in AA to sue, same with last year and the year before right up to the statute of limitations.

I'm not a lawyer, but I'm sure you're not one either. The schools had a previous Supreme Court decision saying what they were doing was kosher. I don't see how a lawsuit could work retroactively. (Help me out, numerous biglaw partners on this board).

This case will say that one was wrongly decided. They will say that this was the correct reading all along, so the law has not actually changed