Is 2024 about trans/crime/dei vs abortion and book banning type of issues?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DCUM skews super wealthy which is why you see people here making abortion their number one issue. For most of the US, economic stability is their primary concern.

How is not being able to afford a child unrelated to “economic stability”?

PP you’re so cute, he’s talking about giving rich people tax cuts. That’s the plan for economic stability always. Poor people can see the rich be “more stable” year after year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Democrats lenient on crime is false. Fox News is saying this which is propaganda and untrue.

If Republicans were truly worried about crime then they would strengthen gun control laws and allow abortion. Legal abortion in this country caused crime rates to decline anywhere from 20% to 45% from the early 90s.

Democrats lenient on crime is not false. It’s true.

Progressive criminal justice reform, as espoused by democrats all over, is akin to policies that lead to less incarceration, less prosecutions. It’s things like “violence interruptors” that all studies show don’t work. Or it’s the second look act or the youth Rehabiliation act. Or it’s not taking away drivers licenses from scofflaws with $12,300 in speeding tickets and then they get in a car and crush 3 people.

Those are all liberal weak on crime policies being implemented. I know you’ll retort and say “we can’t keep locking people up.”

Yea? Well we can’t let violent criminals out earlier or not charge them at all out of “fairness”. It’s not fair to marginalized communities to have violent perpetrators out on the streets much earlier. It’s not fair that they know they’ll get a slap on the wrist and be released out into the community where they can cause more harm.

Or you’ll say “we need more programs! More funding for schools! More wrap around services! We need to tackle the root causes of poverty and study it!”

We’ve done that for generations. We spend the most per pupil in the nation and have terrible scores. I’m sorry but accountability starts at home. If you punch me for my iPhone at a metro stop I want you in jail. I don’t want a fking restorative justice hug. I want you away from the community. People will get away with what they can and now all the Brandon Johnson’s of the nation are in charge and we are seeing an increase in quality of life crime and in violent crimes because they simply don’t want to send anyone to jail and every is a “victim of the system” and other infanalizing, soft bigotry of low expectations excuses.

Judicial reform =/= being lenient on crime. Also the score for standardized testing track with SES, which is why universities are moving away from them. They do not reflect a student’s ability on anything except their ability to pick well-off parents.

It’s clear to me you know nothing about jails/prisons. But please feel free to run your uninformed mouth.

Hmm, that’s how I feel about recruited athletes in every sport except football & basketball.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DCUM skews super wealthy which is why you see people here making abortion their number one issue. For most of the US, economic stability is their primary concern.

And yet every election, special election, every ballot initiative says otherwise.

Does it? The same states where pro choice measures pass also elect republicans. Maybe abortion is just another issue among others and not the issue

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia. These are the states that matter

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I mean really are the major issues for presidential voters going to be people’s distaste with how lenient the democrats are on crime with their progressive criminal justice reforms that lead to increased crime, and how vocal they are about minute subsets of the American public (trans people) vs. how insane right wing politicians have become with banning abortion and are trying to basically remove the ability to vote for many people through their policies?

It’s sort of woke blowback annoyance from voters vs their fear of repressive, regressive religiously motivated anti-abortion right wingers. Is that a relatively coherent summation?

No. You don't really understand how issues work for voters.

People who vote D and those who vote R will both say that the economy and crime are important. People who turn out to vote D will say that abortion is important.

The real question is: how big will be the size of these groups, respectively?

Outside of gerrymandered locations, the Rs are going to get housed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I mean really are the major issues for presidential voters going to be people’s distaste with how lenient the democrats are on crime with their progressive criminal justice reforms that lead to increased crime, and how vocal they are about minute subsets of the American public (trans people) vs. how insane right wing politicians have become with banning abortion and are trying to basically remove the ability to vote for many people through their policies?

It’s sort of woke blowback annoyance from voters vs their fear of repressive, regressive religiously motivated anti-abortion right wingers. Is that a relatively coherent summation?

No. You don't really understand how issues work for voters.

People who vote D and those who vote R will both say that the economy and crime are important. People who turn out to vote D will say that abortion is important.

The real question is: how big will be the size of these groups, respectively?

Outside of gerrymandered locations, the Rs are going to get housed.

And to be clear: the bolded has changed for the national Rs, thanks to the Supreme Court they fought for for all of those years and all the whack job judges in lower courts. They are way, WAY out over their skis in terms of what Americans are actually comfortable with when it comes to regulating abortion. So outside a lunatic fringe, none of that is going to generate any additional rah-rah R voting. The same R voters who have always voted will vote, minus the ones who are either dead or turned off by the idea that a woman who experienced a rape can't even get a medication abortion at 8 weeks without producing police paperwork everyone knows no police agency will generate in the requisite time.

Whereas the level of anger people have about this is going to generate a lot of excess D vote.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If we're in a recession, it will be about the economy, inflation, the debt....

Recessions come and go. Abortion is a lifetime.

Republicans got what they wanted with RvW. Now they're losing. Everywhere.

Abortion matters less if your worried about whether or not you'll have a job in 6 months or if you're watching your nest egg shrink every quarter

You are completely discounting the youth vote who will be 1M stronger come Nov. 2024. They have told us they want gun control and rights to their own bodies. "Nest egg" isn't even in their vocabulary.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DCUM skews super wealthy which is why you see people here making abortion their number one issue. For most of the US, economic stability is their primary concern.

And yet every election, special election, every ballot initiative says otherwise.

Does it? The same states where pro choice measures pass also elect republicans. Maybe abortion is just another issue among others and not the issue

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia. These are the states that matter

Besides NC, Dems will sweep these states. Yes, even Georgia which gets bluer every day.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I mean really are the major issues for presidential voters going to be people’s distaste with how lenient the democrats are on crime with their progressive criminal justice reforms that lead to increased crime, and how vocal they are about minute subsets of the American public (trans people) vs. how insane right wing politicians have become with banning abortion and are trying to basically remove the ability to vote for many people through their policies?

It’s sort of woke blowback annoyance from voters vs their fear of repressive, regressive religiously motivated anti-abortion right wingers. Is that a relatively coherent summation?

Dems are vocal to the extent the GOP demonizes folks living their lives. Do you see defense of abortion rights pertaining to a minute subset of the American public?

Would love to see any cites you have on the link between uptick in crime and progressive criminal justice reforms.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If we're in a recession, it will be about the economy, inflation, the debt....

Recessions come and go. Abortion is a lifetime.

Republicans got what they wanted with RvW. Now they're losing. Everywhere.

Abortion matters less if your worried about whether or not you'll have a job in 6 months or if you're watching your nest egg shrink every quarter

You are completely discounting the youth vote who will be 1M stronger come Nov. 2024. They have told us they want gun control and rights to their own bodies. "Nest egg" isn't even in their vocabulary.

Yes, agree. Nest egg is a 35-40 and up thing save for some outliers.

Michigan had the highest youth vote turnout in 2022 @ 37%. I'm not gonna discount concerns about jobs, etc, but the electorate is broader now with a more divergent set of concerns. And someone worried about a job is also worried about another mouth to feed....

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm apparently in the minority on this, but I'm hoping 2024 is a referendum on WWIII. I just don't if we'll have a "no" candidate to choose.

Care to expand? Let me guess, you’re against helping Ukraine? I would say the majority of people are against WW3. In what ways do you want presidential candidates to avoid it?

The Donbas and Taiwan are the two most likely flashpoints. I'd want a candidate committed to de-escalation. There are multiple paths to de-escalation and I'm open to creativity on those fronts.

To me, whether one group of Russian speakers pay taxes to Moscow or Kiev, or a group of Mandarin speakers pay taxes to Beijing or Taipei is dwarfed by domestic concerns. I just don't think the lives of friends and family are worth it.

While very few truly want WWIII, many people will let themselves get escalated into it. I want leadership that can see the path that leads to war, and get off it before its too late. We do this on a personal level, in that we all learn that some times its best to just walk away. Not every insult, threat or slight needs to be met with retaliation.

You are a Russian stooge or a paid poster from one of the countries you mention. This is not a joke. There are thousands like you in little cubes in buildings getting paid to post pravda bs. We stick by our European allies.

[Anonymous]

My prediction... top issue is the economy.

Abortion will become an issue if the candidates take extreme positions. For example, I was leaning towards DeSantis and then he went for a 6 week ban. Too far. If he had done a 12 or 14 week ban, it would have been a non-issue. Most voters are like this-- neither want total freedom to about up to kindergarten nor restrictions that effectively ban it in most normal cases.

Ukraine and Taiwan will be an issue, along with positions related to America's waning influence abroad (especially if the dollar continues to fall out of favor).

Border security will be a major issue.

Crime will be a major issue.

Woke issues will become an issue bc people are getting tired of it. But I think the kind of people who will vote on these issues are not swing voters anyway. I'm a swing voter who has had it with woke stuff, but it won't sway my vote either way.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My prediction... top issue is the economy.

Abortion will become an issue if the candidates take extreme positions. For example, I was leaning towards DeSantis and then he went for a 6 week ban. Too far. If he had done a 12 or 14 week ban, it would have been a non-issue. Most voters are like this-- neither want total freedom to about up to kindergarten nor restrictions that effectively ban it in most normal cases.

Ukraine and Taiwan will be an issue, along with positions related to America's waning influence abroad (especially if the dollar continues to fall out of favor).

Border security will be a major issue.

Crime will be a major issue.

Woke issues will become an issue bc people are getting tired of it. But I think the kind of people who will vote on these issues are not swing voters anyway. I'm a swing voter who has had it with woke stuff, but it won't sway my vote either way.

I'm not sure why you think you speak for all swing voters. I'm a swing voter as well and several "woke" issues will absolutely influence how I vote.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm apparently in the minority on this, but I'm hoping 2024 is a referendum on WWIII. I just don't if we'll have a "no" candidate to choose.

Care to expand? Let me guess, you’re against helping Ukraine? I would say the majority of people are against WW3. In what ways do you want presidential candidates to avoid it?

The Donbas and Taiwan are the two most likely flashpoints. I'd want a candidate committed to de-escalation. There are multiple paths to de-escalation and I'm open to creativity on those fronts.

To me, whether one group of Russian speakers pay taxes to Moscow or Kiev, or a group of Mandarin speakers pay taxes to Beijing or Taipei is dwarfed by domestic concerns. I just don't think the lives of friends and family are worth it.

While very few truly want WWIII, many people will let themselves get escalated into it. I want leadership that can see the path that leads to war, and get off it before its too late. We do this on a personal level, in that we all learn that some times its best to just walk away. Not every insult, threat or slight needs to be met with retaliation.

You are a Russian stooge or a paid poster from one of the countries you mention. This is not a joke. There are thousands like you in little cubes in buildings getting paid to post pravda bs. We stick by our European allies.

DP, but Macron just publicly said Ukraine is our fight, not the EU's. So...

Ukraine isn't exactly Europe. Not politically (they are not EU) or culturally (they are Slavs).

So I don't know what you mean by European allies. Ursula Van Der Leyen was literally next to him when he said that and she just sat back like "you know that's right."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My prediction... top issue is the economy.

Abortion will become an issue if the candidates take extreme positions. For example, I was leaning towards DeSantis and then he went for a 6 week ban. Too far. If he had done a 12 or 14 week ban, it would have been a non-issue. Most voters are like this-- neither want total freedom to about up to kindergarten nor restrictions that effectively ban it in most normal cases.

Ukraine and Taiwan will be an issue, along with positions related to America's waning influence abroad (especially if the dollar continues to fall out of favor).

Border security will be a major issue.

Crime will be a major issue.

Woke issues will become an issue bc people are getting tired of it. But I think the kind of people who will vote on these issues are not swing voters anyway. I'm a swing voter who has had it with woke stuff, but it won't sway my vote either way.

I'm not sure why you think you speak for all swing voters. I'm a swing voter as well and several "woke" issues will absolutely influence how I vote.

I don't speak for all. I'm making predictions the same as other posters. Is there room for more than you to have predictions?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I mean really are the major issues for presidential voters going to be people’s distaste with how lenient the democrats are on crime with their progressive criminal justice reforms that lead to increased crime, and how vocal they are about minute subsets of the American public (trans people) vs. how insane right wing politicians have become with banning abortion and are trying to basically remove the ability to vote for many people through their policies?

It’s sort of woke blowback annoyance from voters vs their fear of repressive, regressive religiously motivated anti-abortion right wingers. Is that a relatively coherent summation?

Also, I’m sure gun control will play in democrats favor. I’m just trying to ascertain what major issues will motivate voters. For many women it’s abortion. This issue terrifies republicans because it’s so unpopular what they’ve done.

People are getting numb to shootings at this point. I’m hoping there will some kind of over the top crazy type of shooting close to election time, because otherwise I just don’t think they have the impact they used to anymore.