All these rejections and deferrals reported on DCUM and CC are shocking and discouraging

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:^ full disclosure - I am also the parent of a current senior. Is it the worst year? All I know is that the US college admission process, when you want selective schools, is very stressful compared to those in other countries.

What part of this scenario can you control?

(Manage expectations, and you will be helping your child navigate the current reality)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:EVERY YEAR IT'S GETTING WORSE! That's why the acceptance rates are dropping down so far. Yes, there is a college out there for almost every student and you need a realistic list, but it absolutely has gotten harder, year after year. It's been especially bad since 2020, pandemic grading and widespread TO. Saying otherwise makes you seem naive or out of touch.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have been lurking on this board and College Confidential since DC started freshman year in the fall and I am so shocked and sad for so many of what seem to be stellar students on paper getting deferred or even outright rejected from what used to be deemed "safety' schools. I know we're in a bit of a bubble in the DC area and it can be more competitive trying to get into certain schools from certain school systems (or at least that's what I'm told) but it seems to be especially bad this year? Do you think some of it is a result of COVID with '21 and '22 students taking gap years, and will normalize over time or do you think it will only get worse?

Parents say that every year.. this year is especially bad?? No its been like this

This. Seriously, search back.

People say this EVERY year (even pre-COVID).

It is all about your list.

Applying to a broad range of ELITE schools is not making a balanced list.

98% of the kids who are shut out are to blame (though maybe their parents played a heavy role in the debacle).

But they face the same playing field as others in their cohort.

It is not the same as that of their parents. Hasn't that always been the case?

Why go back and see if Abraham Lincoln had it easier?

This is the reality for kids applying to college in 2023.

They have to plan accordingly (i.e. make balanced lists), not lament why it is not like it used to be.

Seriously. it is called coping.

+100
Exactly. The constant hand-wringing and whining about kids being rejected from what are NOT safety schools is beyond tiresome. They are competing with thousands of other highly qualified students and are not owed a space.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Great point about many schools going TO. That said, I'm also seeing an incredible number of students with 1400+ SAT scores. I get that I need to not draw from my experience in the 90s when it was rare to hear of someone getting such high or near perfect scores but what is up with so many high scores these days? Has the scoring changed since I remember it? Or has the test itself gotten easier? Or maybe those are the only ones we hear about on here?

The SAT was recentered in 1994 or 1995. Then the writing portion was added, then taken away. The general consensus is that scores are higher now than in the 1990s.

The scores may be higher now than in the 1990s, but only 7% of SAT test takers today get a 1400 or above. And only 2% get 1500 or above.

https://blog.prepscholar.com/sat-percentiles-and-score-rankings

The percentages you quoted are from ONE sitting per test year cycle. You can't use those percentages to determine how many kids are in the pool of high scorers each admissions cycle. This is a common mistake that people make on this forum. One big mistake is not accounting for people that took the test multiple times over one or two years AND superscoring.

The recent Common App report (2022) provides a better understanding of what is happening:

According to the Common App 2022 report, 76,747 applicants applied to universities/colleges with an SAT score >1500 (this includes ACT equivalent scores). 98,498 applicants applied with scores in the 1400-1499 range.

Source: https://s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/ca.research.publish/Research_Briefs_2022/2022_12_09_Apps_Per_Applicant_ResearchBrief.pdf

Even so, there are more than 175,000 freshman seats at T50 schools. What makes it feel so complicated and chaotic is that to access many of those seats you have to live in the right state or play the SCEA/ED1/ED2 game correctly.

Yes, there are approximately 180,000 seats at T50 national universities (using USNEWS rankings). But the majority of those seats (approx. 115,000) are public universities that are not available to the entire applicant pool due to in-state preferences, sports, and mandates to educate a broad range of students, not just the >1400 applicants. If you limit to private T30s there are approximately 45K seats. Again, many seats are not available because of institutional priorities such as diversity, $$ donors, legacy, and athletics.

Other posters are correct that this has been happening for a while because of the increased college-age population, USNews ranking, recentering the SATs, super scoring, etc.; but the problem has significantly increased because of the pandemic, the Common App, and widespread test optional. There are too many applicants applying to the same 50 schools and not enough seats.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:^ full disclosure - I am also the parent of a current senior. Is it the worst year? All I know is that the US college admission process, when you want selective schools, is very stressful compared to those in other countries.

I suppose, my friend's son had a conditional offer to Cambridge and missed his A-level offer by a letter grade. Talk about stressful! I think high education systems that depend on final cumulative exams are potentially more stressful and kids blame themselves more for missing the mark. At least you can spread achievement and extracurricular involvement over 3.5 years of HS in the US.

[Anonymous]

I just feel like when high achieving parents find out their kid won't be attending a school with the brand name that they thought their household income/private school tuition/zip code entitled them to...they cry "unfair!"

A more healthy/mature response would be to assure their children that they believe they will thrive regardless of where they go to school, because of who they are.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP,

here is the formula:

1. Parents of recent high school graduates: "YES, admissions have become more competitive in recent years, due to Common App, Covid and test-optional."

2. Parents of current seniors: "OMG THIS IS THE WORST YEAR!"

3. Parents of future or past grads, not in the loop: "NO, it's the same every year, whiny parents complain when it's their turn, that's all."

Of course, there will always be exceptions that prove the rules.

And here is my answer: the USA, contrary to other countries, selects with "holistic" criteria, meaning it's the least transparent system ever, that allows colleges to do what they please and pick the students they want without the slightest accountability. Whereas most other countries select purely on academic scores. Narrower criteria, sure, but at least kids know where they stand early on. They know where to apply because their grades and test scores speak for themselves. There is way less stress!!! Even in Asian countries with incredibly difficult university entrance exams, at least it's one big prep and stress the day of the test, and then you're done.

- foreigner who has spent years comparing college admissions around the world.

But even if the process was transparent and just based on scores, there are not enough seats available in elite US schools, especially the T20 schools if we used SAT/GPA scores. We don't have a universal curriculum or even federal standards. Therefore, we will never be able to standardize grading. States' rights over federal. Also, we don't have a one-exam system. The only way admissions could be based on test scores is to eliminate super scoring and only allow one or two sittings for the SAT or ACT. That will never happen because the College Board and the testing industry would no longer be profitable.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^ full disclosure - I am also the parent of a current senior. Is it the worst year? All I know is that the US college admission process, when you want selective schools, is very stressful compared to those in other countries.

I suppose, my friend's son had a conditional offer to Cambridge and missed his A-level offer by a letter grade. Talk about stressful! I think high education systems that depend on final cumulative exams are potentially more stressful and kids blame themselves more for missing the mark. At least you can spread achievement and extracurricular involvement over 3.5 years of HS in the US.

can you explain how that works with Cambridge? So this kid has to attend UCL or King’s b/c they gave him an unconditional?

[Anonymous]

I have a 2020, 2021 and 2023 grad. Honestly, each year seems a bit worse than the last. Lots of deferrals, lots of WL that don’t move and it becomes harder and harder to predict results because the application numbers rise so much each year. 2023 feels the worst to me, but 2021 was hard because my DC couldn’t visit and tour schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't think anyone knows.
Test optional policies have increased the pool of qualified applicants to the top schools by many fold.

Also, the class applying this year had Covid-era grading for 2 years of the 3 that are considered for applications. In DCPS (for instance) the lowest grade a kid could get was a B if he/she did any work. MCPS bumped all final grades up by one letter grade. Lots of stuff like this happened all around the country in giant school districts (so hundreds of thousands of students impacted).

The class of 2025 will be the first that will have all 4 years back in a classroom with normal grading scales.

Qualified by the NEW standards. That is key. Many have test scores abysmally low for the schools and never would have applied if they actually had to submit their scores. Now you have people with a 26-27 ACT and 1050 SAT applying to Ivies and Hopkins.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think anyone knows.
Test optional policies have increased the pool of qualified applicants to the top schools by many fold.

Also, the class applying this year had Covid-era grading for 2 years of the 3 that are considered for applications. In DCPS (for instance) the lowest grade a kid could get was a B if he/she did any work. MCPS bumped all final grades up by one letter grade. Lots of stuff like this happened all around the country in giant school districts (so hundreds of thousands of students impacted).

The class of 2025 will be the first that will have all 4 years back in a classroom with normal grading scales.

Qualified by the NEW standards. That is key. Many have test scores abysmally low for the schools and never would have applied if they actually had to submit their scores. Now you have people with a 26-27 ACT and 1050 SAT applying to Ivies and Hopkins.

And this makes the last few years like NOTHING comparable in the past.

Schools are getting 60k-95k applicants for a SINGLE class. There isn't even time to review that number of applicants. Anyone who thinks it's different and also the very, very big push for FirstGen and URM, is out of their mind. And I don't even have a kid applying (or applied) this year of the past 2!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:EVERY YEAR IT'S GETTING WORSE! That's why the acceptance rates are dropping down so far. Yes, there is a college out there for almost every student and you need a realistic list, but it absolutely has gotten harder, year after year. It's been especially bad since 2020, pandemic grading and widespread TO. Saying otherwise makes you seem naive or out of touch.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have been lurking on this board and College Confidential since DC started freshman year in the fall and I am so shocked and sad for so many of what seem to be stellar students on paper getting deferred or even outright rejected from what used to be deemed "safety' schools. I know we're in a bit of a bubble in the DC area and it can be more competitive trying to get into certain schools from certain school systems (or at least that's what I'm told) but it seems to be especially bad this year? Do you think some of it is a result of COVID with '21 and '22 students taking gap years, and will normalize over time or do you think it will only get worse?

Parents say that every year.. this year is especially bad?? No its been like this

This. Seriously, search back.

People say this EVERY year (even pre-COVID).

It is all about your list.

Applying to a broad range of ELITE schools is not making a balanced list.

98% of the kids who are shut out are to blame (though maybe their parents played a heavy role in the debacle).

Every year it’s getting BETTER.

The number of good schools increases every year. Schools like Northeastern and many state flagships used to be a total joke in many ways. Now, they’ve “gentrified.”

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Great point about many schools going TO. That said, I'm also seeing an incredible number of students with 1400+ SAT scores. I get that I need to not draw from my experience in the 90s when it was rare to hear of someone getting such high or near perfect scores but what is up with so many high scores these days? Has the scoring changed since I remember it? Or has the test itself gotten easier? Or maybe those are the only ones we hear about on here?

SAT scores have been "recentered" a couple of times since the 90s. Subtract about 150 points for the score equivalent back then.

No, that's not how it works. There are more sophisticated adjustments psychometrically now, but percentiles tell you the situation--look at the percentile rank of any given score. It's also in part that you hear from a highly educated group on forums.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I have a 2020, 2021 and 2023 grad. Honestly, each year seems a bit worse than the last. Lots of deferrals, lots of WL that don’t move and it becomes harder and harder to predict results because the application numbers rise so much each year. 2023 feels the worst to me, but 2021 was hard because my DC couldn’t visit and tour schools.

+1 Class of 2023 seems to be a lottery after a certain threshold. I'm seeing very very strong candidates get deferred or rejected at schools like GATech, UMich, even UMD for CS.

[Anonymous]

Every year it’s getting BETTER.

The number of good schools increases every year. Schools like Northeastern and many state flagships used to be a total joke in many ways. Now, they’ve “gentrified.”

Ok, Pollyanna. This is crazy reasoning.

[Anonymous]

To whom much is given, much is expected.