DC had largest percentage drop in population in nation

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I drove to DC today and it was a ghost town with mostly homeless people, tents, and the smell of weed stinking the air. It's definitely different than 2 years a go.

Newsflash: it’s December 23. DC is always empty around Christmas. Obviously you don’t live here.

Newsflash: I am a PA at a K St medical office. We never closed and the K St area has been deserted for months. Most of the lunch places have closed
The homeless encampments are inching toward our office from Washington Circle. I live near the Cathedral
and the residential areas haven’t changed much, but the commercial areas look like a Sunday afternoon in August.

Your poor thing. Watch out or the homeless will get you!

More or less the definition of whistling past the graveyard.

People have legitimate concerns about the direction of the city but you would rather bury your head in the sand.

You don’t live here for one.

For two, “concerns” my ass. Lots of poster are inexplicably getting off on DC hitting a rough patch.

Finally, we’re still in the middle of the pandemic. As I said before, check back in a couple years. Things will get better.

Is this Jeff posting anonymously?

Otherwise how would PP know where someone lives? Also repeats statement from Jeff’s post about “a couple years” prefaced with “as I said before”.

Hmmm.

In any case, whoever and whatever one’s beliefs need to content with that actual data. DC population growth peaked in 2013 and has been declining since, going negative the last two years. Overall, US population growth has also declined. In order for DC to “bounce back”, it’s going to need to attract more domestic in-migration at a time when domestic migration to DC had declined for 9 years and has gone negative the last two. This is not my belief or hunch or hope, it’s just facts and data which, the Washington Post also helpfully provides.


Now for my best estimate of trends, best case is that DC population stabilizes at current 670k for the indefinite future. More likely is that DC population will probably continue to shrink over the next 3-5 years back down to 600k and stabilize there. Worst case is not a disastrous outcomes, but both outcomes do present significant issues that DC will need to grapple with, particularly from a fiscal policy perspective if revenues will not be increasing and will more likely shrink over the medium term.

As long as the real estate market holds up, losing population maybe a good thing. Less cars, less people, and less carbon release.
If the real estate market gives up one day, more affordable housing will be available for DC government to take care the poor.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I drove to DC today and it was a ghost town with mostly homeless people, tents, and the smell of weed stinking the air. It's definitely different than 2 years a go.

Newsflash: it’s December 23. DC is always empty around Christmas. Obviously you don’t live here.

I was downtown for lunch. And if anything I was surprised at how many people were in town.

I keep having this same conversation with my coworkers who live in the suburbs. They all seem to think that we are a bombed out, post apocalyptic, barren city. And I keep having to correct them: most neighborhoods in DC (outside of the downtown/Penn Quarter/L'Enfant plaza area) are bustling and quite the opposite of a ghost town.

“Neighborhoods”. That’s the point and the key distinction. Even if the most central, dense and urbanized neighborhoods are not doing so well. By contrast, shopping and dining options in the suburbs are going gang busters: particularly Pike & Rose and the Mosaic District.

I go downtown every day for work and can confirm the following trends:
- for food, almost all chains are still open but probably 50% of “mom and pop” places have closed and most places have substantially reduced their hours.
- while food is surviving, barely, downtown retail is almost completely disappearing.
- vehicle traffic is probably 80% of normal but foot traffic is probably 20% of what it used to be.

Agree with all of this.

Lots of the locally-owned places people in the office would go for lunch have sadly shut down!

[Anonymous]

Don’t think I know of a city with a declining population that has been successfully able to “take care of the poor”.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I drove to DC today and it was a ghost town with mostly homeless people, tents, and the smell of weed stinking the air. It's definitely different than 2 years a go.

Newsflash: it’s December 23. DC is always empty around Christmas. Obviously you don’t live here.

Newsflash: I am a PA at a K St medical office. We never closed and the K St area has been deserted for months. Most of the lunch places have closed
The homeless encampments are inching toward our office from Washington Circle. I live near the Cathedral
and the residential areas haven’t changed much, but the commercial areas look like a Sunday afternoon in August.

Your poor thing. Watch out or the homeless will get you!

More or less the definition of whistling past the graveyard.

People have legitimate concerns about the direction of the city but you would rather bury your head in the sand.

You don’t live here for one.

For two, “concerns” my ass. Lots of poster are inexplicably getting off on DC hitting a rough patch.

Finally, we’re still in the middle of the pandemic. As I said before, check back in a couple years. Things will get better.

Is this Jeff posting anonymously?

Otherwise how would PP know where someone lives? Also repeats statement from Jeff’s post about “a couple years” prefaced with “as I said before”.

Hmmm.

In any case, whoever and whatever one’s beliefs need to content with that actual data. DC population growth peaked in 2013 and has been declining since, going negative the last two years. Overall, US population growth has also declined. In order for DC to “bounce back”, it’s going to need to attract more domestic in-migration at a time when domestic migration to DC had declined for 9 years and has gone negative the last two. This is not my belief or hunch or hope, it’s just facts and data which, the Washington Post also helpfully provides.


Now for my best estimate of trends, best case is that DC population stabilizes at current 670k for the indefinite future. More likely is that DC population will probably continue to shrink over the next 3-5 years back down to 600k and stabilize there. Worst case is not a disastrous outcomes, but both outcomes do present significant issues that DC will need to grapple with, particularly from a fiscal policy perspective if revenues will not be increasing and will more likely shrink over the medium term.

As long as the real estate market holds up, losing population maybe a good thing. Less cars, less people, and less carbon release.
If the real estate market gives up one day, more affordable housing will be available for DC government to take care the poor.

L’ enfer, c’est les autres 😜

[Anonymous]

I just don't understand why the housing inventory continues to be at historic lows if there is a significant number of people from the city. Are people moving but keeping their property?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I just don't understand why the housing inventory continues to be at historic lows if there is a significant number of people from the city. Are people moving but keeping their property?

Doesn’t that depend on the type of housing?

I can’t really understand why anyone would want to buy in DC now, but maybe it’s a long-term play. In general, DC is looking very rough and depressing as hell these days.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I just don't understand why the housing inventory continues to be at historic lows if there is a significant number of people from the city. Are people moving but keeping their property?

This Washington Post article explains half of the story, rental vacancies shot up to 7.7%.
https://apple.news/ACwycHq-CTQCFbd5SaEVluw

The other half of the story is that there is a huge cohort of people in their 30s, Millennials, who are starting to form families.

The big question for me is not why inventory is low. What bothers me is why rental prices are increasing, particularly as more and more new buildings are being delivered. Really throws a huge monkey wrench in YIMBY/GGW theories.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just don't understand why the housing inventory continues to be at historic lows if there is a significant number of people from the city. Are people moving but keeping their property?

Doesn’t that depend on the type of housing?

I can’t really understand why anyone would want to buy in DC now, but maybe it’s a long-term play. In general, DC is looking very rough and depressing as hell these days.

Certainly purchasing a TH condo conversion in Brightwood or Bloomingdale will be a sure financial loser because it would be both cheaper to rent and unlikely to retain value much less appreciate. If you can afford either a whole detached SF or attached TH you are more likely to retain value, even if you most likely will not be able to rent for positive cash flow.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I drove to DC today and it was a ghost town with mostly homeless people, tents, and the smell of weed stinking the air. It's definitely different than 2 years a go.

Newsflash: it’s December 23. DC is always empty around Christmas. Obviously you don’t live here.

Newsflash: I am a PA at a K St medical office. We never closed and the K St area has been deserted for months. Most of the lunch places have closed
The homeless encampments are inching toward our office from Washington Circle. I live near the Cathedral
and the residential areas haven’t changed much, but the commercial areas look like a Sunday afternoon in August.

Your poor thing. Watch out or the homeless will get you!

More or less the definition of whistling past the graveyard.

People have legitimate concerns about the direction of the city but you would rather bury your head in the sand.

You don’t live here for one.

For two, “concerns” my ass. Lots of poster are inexplicably getting off on DC hitting a rough patch.

Finally, we’re still in the middle of the pandemic. As I said before, check back in a couple years. Things will get better.

I am the PA and a DC native and have always lived in DC except for college. My family has been here since Reconstruction and my mother worked for the DC Government for years and we’ve seen the City through many stages. I hope you are right about a couple of years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I drove to DC today and it was a ghost town with mostly homeless people, tents, and the smell of weed stinking the air. It's definitely different than 2 years a go.

Newsflash: it’s December 23. DC is always empty around Christmas. Obviously you don’t live here.

Newsflash: I am a PA at a K St medical office. We never closed and the K St area has been deserted for months. Most of the lunch places have closed
The homeless encampments are inching toward our office from Washington Circle. I live near the Cathedral
and the residential areas haven’t changed much, but the commercial areas look like a Sunday afternoon in August.

Your poor thing. Watch out or the homeless will get you!

More or less the definition of whistling past the graveyard.

People have legitimate concerns about the direction of the city but you would rather bury your head in the sand.

You don’t live here for one.

For two, “concerns” my ass. Lots of poster are inexplicably getting off on DC hitting a rough patch.

Finally, we’re still in the middle of the pandemic. As I said before, check back in a couple years. Things will get better.

I am the PA and a DC native and have always lived in DC except for college. My family has been here since Reconstruction and my mother worked for the DC Government for years and we’ve seen the City through many stages. I hope you are right about a couple of years.

The PP is wrong both about people “getting off” on DC hitting a rough patch and everything going back to pre-pandemic times “in a couple years”.

[Anonymous]

Gee, why is that?

https://abcnews.go.com/US/dc-jogger-stabbed-death-apparent-random-attack-police/story?id=57953525

https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/crime/seven-teens-in-dc-arrested-for-armed-robbery-and-ghost-guns-new-york-avenue-ivy-city-motel/65-e571eaaf-bfef-408d-a439-699021dba5c0

https://wtop.com/dc/2021/12/dc-teen-arrested-at-eastern-high-school-charged-with-killing-in-va/

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mohammad-anwar-uber-driver-killed_n_60608fe9c5b65d1c28168b90

https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/teen-suspect-in-4-dc-killings-had-been-released-due-to-coronavirus-concerns-sources-say/2342734/

https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/76-year-old-man-found-beaten-outside-nw-dc-home/2830117/

But hey, at least DC residents can flex about all of the 'culture' and $12 lattes they have access to and why living in the city is so much better than the burbs, lol.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:People were moving out of urban areas because initially that's were the largest covid outbreaks were. DC is one big city so it is hard to compare it to states that have a mixture of urban and rural areas.

Not sure this is true. COVID may have exacerbated the trend but the trend started pre-COVID. Rate of DC population increase peaked in 2015 and has been declining steadily since. In 2019, pre-COVID, there was effectively zero population growth. In 2020 DC lost about 17,000 residents. Now in 2021, when those who moved out were supposed to have returned, DC lost even more residents, 20,000. I would not be surprised to see DC lose 25,000 residents in 2022.

It’s not a good thing for a city and instead of blaming COVID, I would hope that DC starts thinking about how to improve the quality of life in the city.

Are real estate prices falling? Seems a contradiction to have fewer residents but more expensive properties.

Not a contradiction. Big investment firms are now buying single family homes.

May turn out be a bad investment for them if everyone is leaving. Now is probably a good time to sell/leave while investment firms still paying top dollar for houses.

[Anonymous]

I really hope the frenetic condo building stops too.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I drove to DC today and it was a ghost town with mostly homeless people, tents, and the smell of weed stinking the air. It's definitely different than 2 years a go.

Newsflash: it’s December 23. DC is always empty around Christmas. Obviously you don’t live here.

Newsflash: I am a PA at a K St medical office. We never closed and the K St area has been deserted for months. Most of the lunch places have closed
The homeless encampments are inching toward our office from Washington Circle. I live near the Cathedral
and the residential areas haven’t changed much, but the commercial areas look like a Sunday afternoon in August.

Your poor thing. Watch out or the homeless will get you!

More or less the definition of whistling past the graveyard.

People have legitimate concerns about the direction of the city but you would rather bury your head in the sand.

You don’t live here for one.

For two, “concerns” my ass. Lots of poster are inexplicably getting off on DC hitting a rough patch.

Finally, we’re still in the middle of the pandemic. As I said before, check back in a couple years. Things will get better.

Is this Jeff posting anonymously?

Otherwise how would PP know where someone lives? Also repeats statement from Jeff’s post about “a couple years” prefaced with “as I said before”.

Hmmm.

In any case, whoever and whatever one’s beliefs need to content with that actual data. DC population growth peaked in 2013 and has been declining since, going negative the last two years. Overall, US population growth has also declined. In order for DC to “bounce back”, it’s going to need to attract more domestic in-migration at a time when domestic migration to DC had declined for 9 years and has gone negative the last two. This is not my belief or hunch or hope, it’s just facts and data which, the Washington Post also helpfully provides.


Now for my best estimate of trends, best case is that DC population stabilizes at current 670k for the indefinite future. More likely is that DC population will probably continue to shrink over the next 3-5 years back down to 600k and stabilize there. Worst case is not a disastrous outcomes, but both outcomes do present significant issues that DC will need to grapple with, particularly from a fiscal policy perspective if revenues will not be increasing and will more likely shrink over the medium term.

As long as the real estate market holds up, losing population maybe a good thing. Less cars, less people, and less carbon release.
If the real estate market gives up one day, more affordable housing will be available for DC government to take care the poor.

Who is going to pay the taxes to take care of the poor

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I just don't understand why the housing inventory continues to be at historic lows if there is a significant number of people from the city. Are people moving but keeping their property?

Renters are moving from buildings rather than owner occupants. The rental occupancy rate is very high but DC is still pushing the narrative that empty office buildings can be converted to residential use.

DC did not have the wealthy investors who can leave residential buildings empty. It needs to fill the units. Look for declining rents that might bring people to the city.