DC had largest percentage drop in population in nation

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:From the article. The common theme is that these jurisdictions are controlled by Democrats

D.C. ranked 7th among states and the District with the largest number of residents who left over the past year. New York topped that list with a drop of 319,020 residents, followed by California with a decline of 261,902 people.

I believe the biggest population gains were Texas, Florida, Arizona (red)

My ex-husband left DC to move to TX. He's been there 6 months and is putting his TX house on the market in January. He HATES TX. It seemed like a good idea at the time.

I have several employees who left DC and gave up their rentals. They are now all moving back because we will open in Feb 2022.

Many DC businesses and organizations are extending their office closures past February 2022. I don’t expect the downtown area to recover for a long time and in its current state it’s unsavory.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:From the article. The common theme is that these jurisdictions are controlled by Democrats

D.C. ranked 7th among states and the District with the largest number of residents who left over the past year. New York topped that list with a drop of 319,020 residents, followed by California with a decline of 261,902 people.

I believe the biggest population gains were Texas, Florida, Arizona (red)

My ex-husband left DC to move to TX. He's been there 6 months and is putting his TX house on the market in January. He HATES TX. It seemed like a good idea at the time.

I have several employees who left DC and gave up their rentals. They are now all moving back because we will open in Feb 2022.

Many DC businesses and organizations are extending their office closures past February 2022. I don’t expect the downtown area to recover for a long time and in its current state it’s unsavory.

My employer originally had a return to work date set for January and now it’s moved to April.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DC also had the longest school closures in the country. People left so their kids could get an education.

Typical DCUM responder who thinks the whole universe revolves around their kids. The overwhelming majority of DC residents don’t have kids in the public schools, and there’s no evidence that the majority of the 20,000 residents who left had kids in the school system.

Seems like a silly argument but I just want to point out that the couple featured in this article didn’t have kids in DCPS yet. Even if they planned to move out before the kids started school if they ever had a doubt about whether to stay and raise their kids in DC the situation with schools the last couple years probably sealed it. It reads to me that closure of pre-K accelerated their decision making.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/12/24/dc-population-drop-covid/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DC also had the longest school closures in the country. People left so their kids could get an education.

Typical DCUM responder who thinks the whole universe revolves around their kids. The overwhelming majority of DC residents don’t have kids in the public schools, and there’s no evidence that the majority of the 20,000 residents who left had kids in the school system.

Seems like a silly argument but I just want to point out that the couple featured in this article didn’t have kids in DCPS yet. Even if they planned to move out before the kids started school if they ever had a doubt about whether to stay and raise their kids in DC the situation with schools the last couple years probably sealed it. It reads to me that closure of pre-K accelerated their decision making.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/12/24/dc-population-drop-covid/

Which totally misses my point. I’m not saying that not a single person left DC during the pandemic because they were unhappy with their kids being in closed schools. I’m just saying that that’s likely not why the overwhelming majority did. My hunch is that most left for job related reasons - either they lost theirs or they started working remotely and could do that anywhere.

In the end the population loss is going to prove to be a blip on the radar. Dig this thread back up in a couple years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I drove to DC today and it was a ghost town with mostly homeless people, tents, and the smell of weed stinking the air. It's definitely different than 2 years a go.

Newsflash: it’s December 23. DC is always empty around Christmas. Obviously you don’t live here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DC also had the longest school closures in the country. People left so their kids could get an education.

Typical DCUM responder who thinks the whole universe revolves around their kids. The overwhelming majority of DC residents don’t have kids in the public schools, and there’s no evidence that the majority of the 20,000 residents who left had kids in the school system.

Seems like a silly argument but I just want to point out that the couple featured in this article didn’t have kids in DCPS yet. Even if they planned to move out before the kids started school if they ever had a doubt about whether to stay and raise their kids in DC the situation with schools the last couple years probably sealed it. It reads to me that closure of pre-K accelerated their decision making.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/12/24/dc-population-drop-covid/

Which totally misses my point. I’m not saying that not a single person left DC during the pandemic because they were unhappy with their kids being in closed schools. I’m just saying that that’s likely not why the overwhelming majority did. My hunch is that most left for job related reasons - either they lost theirs or they started working remotely and could do that anywhere.

In the end the population loss is going to prove to be a blip on the radar. Dig this thread back up in a couple years.

Wow, so self-confident. Come back when you have actual information and know what you are taking about.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I drove to DC today and it was a ghost town with mostly homeless people, tents, and the smell of weed stinking the air. It's definitely different than 2 years a go.

Newsflash: it’s December 23. DC is always empty around Christmas. Obviously you don’t live here.

I was downtown for lunch. And if anything I was surprised at how many people were in town.

I keep having this same conversation with my coworkers who live in the suburbs. They all seem to think that we are a bombed out, post apocalyptic, barren city. And I keep having to correct them: most neighborhoods in DC (outside of the downtown/Penn Quarter/L'Enfant plaza area) are bustling and quite the opposite of a ghost town.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I drove to DC today and it was a ghost town with mostly homeless people, tents, and the smell of weed stinking the air. It's definitely different than 2 years a go.

Newsflash: it’s December 23. DC is always empty around Christmas. Obviously you don’t live here.

Newsflash: I am a PA at a K St medical office. We never closed and the K St area has been deserted for months. Most of the lunch places have closed
The homeless encampments are inching toward our office from Washington Circle. I live near the Cathedral
and the residential areas haven’t changed much, but the commercial areas look like a Sunday afternoon in August.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DC also had the longest school closures in the country. People left so their kids could get an education.

Typical DCUM responder who thinks the whole universe revolves around their kids. The overwhelming majority of DC residents don’t have kids in the public schools, and there’s no evidence that the majority of the 20,000 residents who left had kids in the school system.

Seems like a silly argument but I just want to point out that the couple featured in this article didn’t have kids in DCPS yet. Even if they planned to move out before the kids started school if they ever had a doubt about whether to stay and raise their kids in DC the situation with schools the last couple years probably sealed it. It reads to me that closure of pre-K accelerated their decision making.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/12/24/dc-population-drop-covid/

Which totally misses my point. I’m not saying that not a single person left DC during the pandemic because they were unhappy with their kids being in closed schools. I’m just saying that that’s likely not why the overwhelming majority did. My hunch is that most left for job related reasons - either they lost theirs or they started working remotely and could do that anywhere.

In the end the population loss is going to prove to be a blip on the radar. Dig this thread back up in a couple years.

Wow, so self-confident. Come back when you have actual information and know what you are taking about.

Will you agree to do the same?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I drove to DC today and it was a ghost town with mostly homeless people, tents, and the smell of weed stinking the air. It's definitely different than 2 years a go.

Newsflash: it’s December 23. DC is always empty around Christmas. Obviously you don’t live here.

Newsflash: I am a PA at a K St medical office. We never closed and the K St area has been deserted for months. Most of the lunch places have closed
The homeless encampments are inching toward our office from Washington Circle. I live near the Cathedral
and the residential areas haven’t changed much, but the commercial areas look like a Sunday afternoon in August.

Your poor thing. Watch out or the homeless will get you!

[Anonymous]

Here’s some facts for you, ok? Unless the 855 kids who left DC public schools last year took 19,000 adults with them, and none of the 855 elected to stay in DC and home school or move to a charter (both of which saw their numbers increase), it’s pretty clear that very few of the 20,000 who left did so because of schools.

Zing!

https://wtop.com/dc/2021/12/enrollment-declines-in-dc-public-schools-as-more-opt-for-charter-schools-home-schooling/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I drove to DC today and it was a ghost town with mostly homeless people, tents, and the smell of weed stinking the air. It's definitely different than 2 years a go.

Newsflash: it’s December 23. DC is always empty around Christmas. Obviously you don’t live here.

Newsflash: I am a PA at a K St medical office. We never closed and the K St area has been deserted for months. Most of the lunch places have closed
The homeless encampments are inching toward our office from Washington Circle. I live near the Cathedral
and the residential areas haven’t changed much, but the commercial areas look like a Sunday afternoon in August.

Your poor thing. Watch out or the homeless will get you!

More or less the definition of whistling past the graveyard.

People have legitimate concerns about the direction of the city but you would rather bury your head in the sand.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I drove to DC today and it was a ghost town with mostly homeless people, tents, and the smell of weed stinking the air. It's definitely different than 2 years a go.

Newsflash: it’s December 23. DC is always empty around Christmas. Obviously you don’t live here.

Newsflash: I am a PA at a K St medical office. We never closed and the K St area has been deserted for months. Most of the lunch places have closed
The homeless encampments are inching toward our office from Washington Circle. I live near the Cathedral
and the residential areas haven’t changed much, but the commercial areas look like a Sunday afternoon in August.

Your poor thing. Watch out or the homeless will get you!

More or less the definition of whistling past the graveyard.

People have legitimate concerns about the direction of the city but you would rather bury your head in the sand.

You don’t live here for one.

For two, “concerns” my ass. Lots of poster are inexplicably getting off on DC hitting a rough patch.

Finally, we’re still in the middle of the pandemic. As I said before, check back in a couple years. Things will get better.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I drove to DC today and it was a ghost town with mostly homeless people, tents, and the smell of weed stinking the air. It's definitely different than 2 years a go.

Newsflash: it’s December 23. DC is always empty around Christmas. Obviously you don’t live here.

I was downtown for lunch. And if anything I was surprised at how many people were in town.

I keep having this same conversation with my coworkers who live in the suburbs. They all seem to think that we are a bombed out, post apocalyptic, barren city. And I keep having to correct them: most neighborhoods in DC (outside of the downtown/Penn Quarter/L'Enfant plaza area) are bustling and quite the opposite of a ghost town.

“Neighborhoods”. That’s the point and the key distinction. Even if the most central, dense and urbanized neighborhoods are not doing so well. By contrast, shopping and dining options in the suburbs are going gang busters: particularly Pike & Rose and the Mosaic District.

I go downtown every day for work and can confirm the following trends:
- for food, almost all chains are still open but probably 50% of “mom and pop” places have closed and most places have substantially reduced their hours.
- while food is surviving, barely, downtown retail is almost completely disappearing.
- vehicle traffic is probably 80% of normal but foot traffic is probably 20% of what it used to be.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I drove to DC today and it was a ghost town with mostly homeless people, tents, and the smell of weed stinking the air. It's definitely different than 2 years a go.

Newsflash: it’s December 23. DC is always empty around Christmas. Obviously you don’t live here.

Newsflash: I am a PA at a K St medical office. We never closed and the K St area has been deserted for months. Most of the lunch places have closed
The homeless encampments are inching toward our office from Washington Circle. I live near the Cathedral
and the residential areas haven’t changed much, but the commercial areas look like a Sunday afternoon in August.

Your poor thing. Watch out or the homeless will get you!

More or less the definition of whistling past the graveyard.

People have legitimate concerns about the direction of the city but you would rather bury your head in the sand.

You don’t live here for one.

For two, “concerns” my ass. Lots of poster are inexplicably getting off on DC hitting a rough patch.

Finally, we’re still in the middle of the pandemic. As I said before, check back in a couple years. Things will get better.

Is this Jeff posting anonymously?

Otherwise how would PP know where someone lives? Also repeats statement from Jeff’s post about “a couple years” prefaced with “as I said before”.

Hmmm.

In any case, whoever and whatever one’s beliefs need to content with that actual data. DC population growth peaked in 2013 and has been declining since, going negative the last two years. Overall, US population growth has also declined. In order for DC to “bounce back”, it’s going to need to attract more domestic in-migration at a time when domestic migration to DC had declined for 9 years and has gone negative the last two. This is not my belief or hunch or hope, it’s just facts and data which, the Washington Post also helpfully provides.


Now for my best estimate of trends, best case is that DC population stabilizes at current 670k for the indefinite future. More likely is that DC population will probably continue to shrink over the next 3-5 years back down to 600k and stabilize there. Worst case is not a disastrous outcomes, but both outcomes do present significant issues that DC will need to grapple with, particularly from a fiscal policy perspective if revenues will not be increasing and will more likely shrink over the medium term.